Preview Rd 24 Geelong v West Coast Sat Aug 23 2024 145pm @ GMHBA

[Jemaine]

What's the maths on Geelong finishing Top 2? Feels unlikely but also not unrealistic?

Would a 12 goal win then GWS and Port losing their games by 4 goals be enough?

Maybe a 12 goal win isn't likely after how the Cats played vs the Saints, but the Eagles look horrible and checked out...a big win could happen.

~75 point win + ~25 point win for Freo vs Port (in WA)
or a ~90 point win and a ~10 point win for Fre vs Port
Dogs beat GWS at Ballarat.

21 degrees with some morning showers and only light winds, will be almost perfect by game time for high scoring.

I know we just choked to St Kilda but honestly given how poorly WCE play KP - and off the back of just four goals at home against an undermanned Carlton on the weekend - anything under 70+ point win sending off one of our greatest ever would be a shocker.

Honestly it's not as crazily out there as some are saying, although if the Dogs vs GWS game was at the dome rahter than Ballarat I'd be more confident.

 

[camppo]

What's the maths on Geelong finishing Top 2? Feels unlikely but also not unrealistic?

Would a 12 goal win then GWS and Port losing their games by 4 goals be enough?

Maybe a 12 goal win isn't likely after how the Cats played vs the Saints, but the Eagles look horrible and checked out...a big win could happen.

it will depend on the actual score in each game.

we need to win first of all to lock up top 4
gws lose
port lose

specific to top 2 to jump port - i think the margin would be anywhere from 110-120ish combined

i.e. we win by 100 port lose by 20 etc we win by 90 they lose by 30 so not completely out of the question we just have to absolutely smash wce and hope freo are still alive in the last game and try and put port away.

 

[bruce lindner]

Duncan would've sliced and diced St Kilda when we were on top in the first half. Much like we missed his absence in the 2019 prelim against Richmond, we missed him and a chance to create a bigger lead on Saturday night.

Coming on when Geelong folded and St Kilda were ferocious was a nightmare situation. If we are getting absolutely swarmed and offering no resistance, Duncan looks cooked. If we are functioning okay as a team then Duncan gives us an extra quality distributer.

P.S if we are getting swarmed we are going to cop a hiding whether it's Duncan, Mullin or the ghost of Isaac Smith in the team. It becomes irrelevant. Look how poor someone like Zach Guthrie - in his prime - looks when the team are getting thrashed at the source time and time again.

I love our club champion Duncan but would prefer him to start or to be rested/omitted. I see the sub role as a special choice based on the intersection of GFC's match strategy, the opposition and anticipated playing conditions. I'm just not sure we have nailed the thoughtfulness that should go into how we maximise this role (but also, what would I know as someone not in the inner sanctum)

 

[My Tilly]

Any thoughts on trialing Stengle in the midfield this weekend? He has been used through the middle on various occasions throughout the season. May not be a big body but he has footy brilliance and we could do with a bit of creativity.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Sucks that Freo can't make the 8 now. They'll want to win to send their season out on a high note anyway, but there won't be the same drive as if a finals spot were on the line.

 

[My Tilly]

Sucks that Freo can't make the 8 now. They'll want to win to send their season out on a high note anyway, but there won't be the same drive as if a finals spot were on the line.

They can make it if GWS beat the Dogs.

 

[Mr Meow]

I love our club champion Duncan but would prefer him to start or to be rested/omitted. I see the sub role as a special choice based on the intersection of GFC's match strategy, the opposition and anticipated playing conditions. I'm just not sure we have nailed the thoughtfulness that should go into how we maximise this role (but also, what would I know as someone not in the inner sanctum)

I agree with that.

On paper you can see how adding an older/slower player when the pace of the game is down could work. But in reality I just don't see it appropriate for Duncan.

Having said that, the sub role is tricky. I'd almost lean towards someone with pace to fully exploit that advantage.

 

[cats_09]

Sucks that Freo can't make the 8 now. They'll want to win to send their season out on a high note anyway, but there won't be the same drive as if a finals spot were on the line.

Fremantle aren't out of it yet - technically, Collingwood can still make the 8 but that's extremely unlikely as it would require a major percentage boost for them and a drop in percentage from a team like Carlton

Fremantle win and one of Bulldogs, Hawthorn or Carlton lose - it's the Dockers who jump into the 8th

And with this weeks matches being:

• Bulldogs vs GWS at Mars, a venue that GWS beat the Bulldogs at last year
• Carlton vs St Kilda at Marvel, with Carlton having a couple of more injury concerns to their list with McGovern & Williams in doubt, add in what we saw St Kilda were capable of on the weekend - then it's not totally crazy to see a St Kilda win here

Just means that Fremantle have to actually show up at home, show some pride in their guernsey and get the win

 

[supahoops]

I’m quietly confident of top two given WC showing vs Carlton. Given they dished that up for their last home game if we are on I can see us sitting close to second Saturday night. My guess is Freo and Dogs win anyway with everything to play for but knowing that they might need to win by X amount of goals may play tricks on Poort and GWS. Just gotta get the job done on our end like we didn’t Saturday night

 

[Biggy_Boy]

They can make it if GWS beat the Dogs.

Oh I was doing ladder predictor wrong. But if GWS win and Freo beats Port, we can only finish 3rd and travel to Sydney to play GWS, and based on current form that's more of a problem than playing Sydney. But if Bulldogs and Freo win, we can finish anywhere from 2nd to 4th based on the margin we beat WCE by...

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Of course, there's always the chance we lose to WCE and drop to 7th.

Crazy the significant impact results in the final round are going to have on finals placement.

 

[My Tilly]

Oh I was doing ladder predictor wrong. But if GWS win and Freo beats Port, we can only finish 3rd and travel to Sydney to play GWS, and based on current form that's more of a problem than playing Sydney. But if Bulldogs and Freo win, we can finish anywhere from 2nd to 4th based on the margin we beat WCE by...

Yes. Looks like it will be 4th spot.
I hope the club is looking at it as a positive and not dwelling on the weekend's result (missed opportunity). I would take Scott over Longmire all day to come up with a plan to bamboozle Sydney.

 

[Lingsface]

We can beat Sydney, we play well we are in a preliminary final! Wow!

 

[BORIS332]

Any thoughts on trialing Stengle in the midfield this weekend? He has been used through the middle on various occasions throughout the season. May not be a big body but he has footy brilliance and we could do with a bit of creativity.

We need our best goal kickers near the goals.

 

[BORIS332]

I’m quietly confident of top two given WC showing vs Carlton. Given they dished that up for their last home game if we are on I can see us sitting close to second Saturday night. My guess is Freo and Dogs win anyway with everything to play for but knowing that they might need to win by X amount of goals may play tricks on Poort and GWS. Just gotta get the job done on our end like we didn’t Saturday night

Our biggest win this year was 75pts, Eagles biggest loss was 99. We'd need to win by 120+ to be a realistic chance.

 

[catters078]

Our best chance of top 2 sounds like it needs to include the Saints to roll Carlton ( to truly give the dockers something to play for)

Cats win by ~75 points
Dogs win by 15 points or more
Saints beat blues to keep freo alive
Freo goes hard and wins by 24 to 30 points..

Think that would put our % better than Port.

Again unlikely, but not unrealistic.

Let's smash the Eagles then feet up and watch Sunday.

 

[dazbroncos]

What's the maths on Geelong finishing Top 2? Feels unlikely but also not unrealistic?

Would a 12 goal win then GWS and Port losing their games by 4 goals be enough?

Maybe a 12 goal win isn't likely after how the Cats played vs the Saints, but the Eagles look horrible and checked out...a big win could happen.

It was more likely that Kate Beckinsale said yes to me earlier this year.

Never gonna happen.

Neither will us getting Top 2.

But dreams are free.

Go Catters

 

[cats_09]

Congrats to our latest milestone player when this week, AusKick kid Zach Guthrie

39

Zach Guthrie

Age

26

Ht

188cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

5.2

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

90.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

1.0

1star

T

1.0

2star

MG

90.0

2star

D

10.4

3star

K

3.8

2star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.6

4star

will play game #100

(found the AusKick photo)


He really is a player who's grown up before our eyes





And he definitely put his time in hub life 2020 to good use - though the longer hair does seem to suit him a bit better




During his first 50 games, there was often remarks or questions along the lines that Zach was getting games only to appease older brother Cam, that his spot on the list was due to his brother, or that during games Cam would look out for him to help boost younger brothers stats

His coming of age game came in his 5th season but just his 29th game, against North Melbourne down in Hobart, Round 20 2021 - 28 disposals, 13 marks & 11 intercepts. When the coaches votes were released for that match, he shared the best on ground honours with older brother Cam, both collecting 8 coaches votes (though Cam also collected the 3 Brownlow votes to Zach's none...piss poor umpires)

21 games later & his 54th match overall, he celebrated the ultimate prize in football, winning the 2022 premiership alongside his brother







Now 46 games later he's about to run out for game #100 - and while so many of his first 54 games were played alongside his brother, since our premiership win, it's been just the 10 matches. And no doubt been a frustrating time for Cam, this has also allowed Zach to step out of his older brothers shadow & becoming the super solid, ever reliable backman we're seeing today

And what better way to celebrate his milestone than with signing a further 3-year extension which was announced yesterday - playing through to 2028 at least, will have this once former rookie well on his way to 200+ games in the Hoops

 

[Finknottle]

Any thoughts on trialing Stengle in the midfield this weekend? He has been used through the middle on various occasions throughout the season. May not be a big body but he has footy brilliance and we could do with a bit of creativity.

I doubt our best stay at home forward who has kicked 40 goals this year is going to be playing midfield. However, given the state of our midfield I can understand the thinking.

 

[My Tilly]

I doubt our best stay at home forward who has kicked 40 goals this year is going to be playing midfield. However, given the state of our midfield I can understand the thinking.

I'm worried we won't have enough in midfield when we potentially face Sydney in a qualifying final. Bowes has been good.
Hopefully Bruhn can come back in and really play out of his skin.

 

[Mr_Bojangles]

Well done Zuth! What a level he has reached.

 

[Vdubs]

Well Cats fans, time to cut the onions.

And im not talking about the second 1/2 V the Saints.

Tom Hawkins - the 26 - is gonna make some sort of last lap at KP.

It will be a full house - the faithful will be standing and applauding from the aisles, the bars and the standing room. The fat cats will cram into the Social Club and function rooms and probably even look down from their Chardy glasses and pause.

Tom Hawkins is going past them.

We will all feel the lump.

As it has been said, dont be sad that its over be thankful that it happened.

Going past the newly renamed Selwood - Hawkins stand will be the hardest for mine.

But there is also a game to win.

Win and we are in. We control that portion of our destiny.

We need 4 more win for the most unlikely of glories. Many things are against us - not the least of which are facts about our own frailties.

But if we can find a way.... get those lucky bounces and moments of collective and individual brilliance - why not us?

But first, the 4 points and %.

Needs to happen and happen stoutly.

Get it done Geelong

Do it for Tomma.

GO Catters

Did not know the stand has been renamed- great result.
Win and we go to Sydney. Possibly our best chance to pinch a win after a week off given Swans notorious first quarters

 

[Strange Cat]

It was more likely that Kate Beckinsale said yes to me earlier this year.

Never gonna happen.

Neither will us getting Top 2.

But dreams are free.

Go Catters

I thought Mods gets all the chicks ??

 

[Strange Cat]

Well done Zuth! What a level he has reached.

My boy from way back when no else believed in him I saw his strengths early on

 

[Cataholic]

I thought Mods gets all the chicks ??

He's a modest man is our Daz