Review Round 17, 2024 - Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide

[Grasshopper17]

Dunkley, Neale, and Harris were outstanding. I thought we were second best for large patches and their kicking for goal was infinitely better than ours. But an ugly win is a win - you get four points just the same.

I thought Harris was beaten by Himmelberg or whoever that blonde chap playing on him was. Outmarked too often I thought.

 

[Grasshopper17]

The bold is actually chefs kiss in terms of an apt description.

His soccer goal against Melbourne.

 

[3KZ is Football]

I agree Grasshopper17 - Rayner is a better third tall option than Gardiner was and given that he really can only play small cameos in the midfield, forward line is best. If Cam can kick a couple every week that will help.

 

[McIvor]

Yes expected score agrees with you. They shot the lights out and we regressed to our standard early season form in front of goal:



Ultimately it's the most convincing 11 point win you're ever likely to see. Kicked the first 3 goals of the game and literally held them at arm's length for the remainder, never conceding more than 2 consecutive goals. They closed to within 7 during the 1st, 8 points during the 2nd and 3rd, while 11 was as close as they got in the last.

Yes, a better red time and last quarter performance would have been nice, but still good to get another win with still so much potential upside. Thought we also ran the clock well at the end when things got a bit too close for comfort.

Transition defence remains a concern, but we did defend our back 50 far better than in recent weeks. Adelaide managed only 20 shots from 48 entries - that 42% is our best effort since we beat Gold Coast. So maybe this is the first step in improving our overall team defence. Better tackling in our front half would not go astray.

I think strategically we were well set up behind the ball, however conceding 15 contested marks while only taking 6 of our own limits the effectiveness of any strategy. Thought our talls were pretty well beaten at both ends which was disappointing. Payne was probably our best overall.

Just started watching the replay and noticing at a lot of aerial contests, a lot of numbers from both sides around the ball but ours were often pretty bunched up whereas Adelaide had a better spread 360⁰ around the fall of the ball. Thus they often came away with the ball when it looked like we should have won it.

Hopefully we can find ways to become more clinical in our front 60 or 70. Lots of fumbling, bombing to packs or way too adventurous long shots at goal. At least we're getting those shots now where we were struggling early in the season.

But I have a bit of a theory as to why we've perhaps fluffed our lines a few too many times in front of goal the last couple of weeks. I wonder if our crowd noise is sometimes so overwhelming that our players get a bit overexcited and ahead of themselves, and it prevents them selecting the best option and executing accordingly. Takes me back to the 2019 Semi Final, which was so amazingly loud in our favour but I'm still not sure that was to our advantage! Similarly, whenever I go to Broncos games and the ground announcer starts a chant whenever we get inside the opposition 20, we invariably drop the ball

Yes, our Gabba only holds 30-odd thousand, but as Chris Scott has said, it's one of the loudest venues in the country when it's rocking and I wonder if that sometimes adversely affects our players. NFL teams of course make a point of asking their fans to be quiet when they have the ball - it's a stark contrast to here.

Compare that to the way our inside 50 conversion has been amazing in our last two away games, against the Bulldogs and Port, where we had much less crowd support. Hopefully we get enough opportunities in Perth on Sunday to see if that trend continues or not.

Must admit for only an 11 point win I actually didn’t think we were ever a chance of losing and always felt like we had the game in control hence why I agree wholeheartedly with your comment that it was a very convincing 11 point win. Good summation.

 

[Elixuh]

Yes expected score agrees with you. They shot the lights out and we regressed to our standard early season form in front of goal:



Ultimately it's the most convincing 11 point win you're ever likely to see. Kicked the first 3 goals of the game and literally held them at arm's length for the remainder, never conceding more than 2 consecutive goals. They closed to within 7 during the 1st, 8 points during the 2nd and 3rd, while 11 was as close as they got in the last.

Yes, a better red time and last quarter performance would have been nice, but still good to get another win with still so much potential upside. Thought we also ran the clock well at the end when things got a bit too close for comfort.

Transition defence remains a concern, but we did defend our back 50 far better than in recent weeks. Adelaide managed only 20 shots from 48 entries - that 42% is our best effort since we beat Gold Coast. So maybe this is the first step in improving our overall team defence. Better tackling in our front half would not go astray.

I think strategically we were well set up behind the ball, however conceding 15 contested marks while only taking 6 of our own limits the effectiveness of any strategy. Thought our talls were pretty well beaten at both ends which was disappointing. Payne was probably our best overall.

Just started watching the replay and noticing at a lot of aerial contests, a lot of numbers from both sides around the ball but ours were often pretty bunched up whereas Adelaide had a better spread 360⁰ around the fall of the ball. Thus they often came away with the ball when it looked like we should have won it.

Hopefully we can find ways to become more clinical in our front 60 or 70. Lots of fumbling, bombing to packs or way too adventurous long shots at goal. At least we're getting those shots now where we were struggling early in the season.

But I have a bit of a theory as to why we've perhaps fluffed our lines a few too many times in front of goal the last couple of weeks. I wonder if our crowd noise is sometimes so overwhelming that our players get a bit overexcited and ahead of themselves, and it prevents them selecting the best option and executing accordingly. Takes me back to the 2019 Semi Final, which was so amazingly loud in our favour but I'm still not sure that was to our advantage! Similarly, whenever I go to Broncos games and the ground announcer starts a chant whenever we get inside the opposition 20, we invariably drop the ball

Yes, our Gabba only holds 30-odd thousand, but as Chris Scott has said, it's one of the loudest venues in the country when it's rocking and I wonder if that sometimes adversely affects our players. NFL teams of course make a point of asking their fans to be quiet when they have the ball - it's a stark contrast to here.

Compare that to the way our inside 50 conversion has been amazing in our last two away games, against the Bulldogs and Port, where we had much less crowd support. Hopefully we get enough opportunities in Perth on Sunday to see if that trend continues or not.

Were the biggest points gained kicks for the crows every single one of keays goals that had me questioning reality?

 

[Grasshopper17]

Were the biggest points gained kicks for the crows every single one of keays goals that had me questioning reality?

Unfortunately this Twitter account no longer auto-posts expected scores for every single shot at goal. Elon Musk you star

This is the breakdown from Andrew Whelan between set shots and general play:


So it clearly shows Adelaide shot the lights out. +1.21 points per set shot is basically off the scale.

 

[beardancer]

Weird from Mike Whiting, especially as he is an unabashed Starcevic fan.

Be interesting to hear whether he doubles down on TRD or retracts his comments

On SM-G973F using BigFooty.com mobile app

starcevich was running towards rankine while looking at the play......he wasn't aware. rankine could have held his ground and bumped starcevich but instead he charged at him getting the chest and head. it's def a 2 or 3 match ban but made worse by starcevich running blind towards rankine. not excusing rankine, that was a crap act but starce didn't protect himself because he was unaware. hope starce is feeling ok tho.

 

[McIvor]

starcevich was running towards rankine while looking at the play......he wasn't aware. rankine could have held his ground and bumped starcevich but instead he charged at him getting the chest and head. it's def a 2 or 3 match ban but made worse by starcevich running blind towards rankine. not excusing rankine, that was a crap act but starce didn't protect himself because he was unaware. hope starce is feeling ok tho.

Why should Starcevich have protected himself running back to his position given it was a stoppage to man up Rankine.

Don’t know why people are having such a hard time calling out Rankine’s gutless sniping act and putting any of this on Starcevich which your post and Whitings pathetic summation are attributing some of this back on Brandon.

Call Rankine’s act for what it is, simple.

 

[werdna78]

starcevich was running towards rankine while looking at the play......he wasn't aware. rankine could have held his ground and bumped starcevich but instead he charged at him getting the chest and head. it's def a 2 or 3 match ban but made worse by starcevich running blind towards rankine. not excusing rankine, that was a crap act but starce didn't protect himself because he was unaware. hope starce is feeling ok tho.

What made it worse was Rankine, instead of getting out of the way or bracing for contact. He instead choose to jump into Starc.

You see this all the time, players are looking to hurt players if given an opportunity.

Sometimes it comes off. Other times you FAAFO.

 

[McIvor]

Absolutely pathetic by Crows to challenge Rankines dog act, basically condoning his weak act. Accept the suspension and learn but oh no, they’ll throw up excuses about his life and blame Starcevich. Weak all round.

 

[Happy_Neale]

Absolutely pathetic by Crows to challenge Rankines dog act, basically condoning his weak act. Accept the suspension and learn but oh no, they’ll throw up excuses about his life and blame Starcevich. Weak all round.

It’s a product of an insanely inconsistent MRO/tribunal, the crows probably legitimately think they have a chance of getting him off or at the very least getting the weeks reduced

 

[Nathan Barley]

If Cripps can get off then no reason Rankine can't

 

[werdna78]

If Cripps can get off then no reason Rankine can't

Is Rankine in Brownlow contention?

 

[bungalow_bill]

I agree Grasshopper17 - Rayner is a better third tall option than Gardiner was and given that he really can only play small cameos in the midfield, forward line is best. If Cam can kick a couple every week that will help.

If Rayner is parked near the goal square he should be good for a couple of goals per game. Loves a pack mark.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Watched the first half last night - how good was O's CB tap to Neale? The commentators were gushing all over it

 

[Perrip]

It’s a product of an insanely inconsistent MRO/tribunal, the crows probably legitimately think they have a chance of getting him off or at the very least getting the weeks reduced

Going off the Crows statement about the tribunal tonight, they accept the high contact and severe impact grading but want it changed it from intentional to careless. Which under the guidelines, still results in 3 or more games.

 

[T Rick]

Going off the Crows statement about the tribunal tonight, they accept the high contact and severe impact grading but want it changed it from intentional to careless. Which under the guidelines, still results in 3 or more games.

Off the ball contact is by default "intentional", as it should be. I have zero faith in the MRO/Tribunal to do anything remotely consistent so understand the Crows position but morally their appeal is beneath them as a club.

 

[PeterSalt]

Unfortunately this Twitter account no longer auto-posts expected scores for every single shot at goal. Elon Musk you star

This is the breakdown from Andrew Whelan between set shots and general play:
View attachment 2043083

So it clearly shows Adelaide shot the lights out. +1.21 points per set shot is basically off the scale.

I haven't seen this before. Might have get on twitter and see if I can follow it

Curious, with Adelaide's +1.21 per set shot rated by industry average or against Adelaide themselves?

Watching the game from home it looked/felt like 4-5 goal win to Brisbane, not the final 11 point margin

 

[Grasshopper17]

I haven't seen this before. Might have get on twitter and see if I can follow it

Curious, with Adelaide's +1.21 per set shot rated by industry average or against Adelaide themselves?

Watching the game from home it looked/felt like 4-5 goal win to Brisbane, not the final 11 point margin

My understanding it's always vs industry average.

Otherwise we could kick 10-20 every week and be rated above average

 

[PeterSalt]

My understanding it's always vs industry average.

Otherwise we could kick 10-20 every week and be rated above average

lol .. TBF - seems like we have that problem fairly regularly

 

[McIvor]

Off the ball contact is by default "intentional", as it should be. I have zero faith in the MRO/Tribunal to do anything remotely consistent so understand the Crows position but morally their appeal is beneath them as a club.

I’ll be really disappointed if the Tribunal caves on the grading. You only have to look at the vision to know it was intentional and more so that he intended to hurt Starc; every talking head has said his hit was intended to hurt even if he didn’t mean to hit him in the head so the incident can’t be careless but like you said expect they’ll fold like they always do.

 

[p4p1]

I’ll be really disappointed if the Tribunal caves on the grading. You only have to look at the vision to know it was intentional and more so that he intended to hurt Starc; every talking head has said his hit was intended to hurt even if he didn’t mean to hit him in the head so the incident can’t be careless but like you said expect they’ll fold like they always do.

Completely agree. He intended to hurt him, not knock him out but definitely wind him, which can result in other more serious injuries.
When I watched it on replay, it looked like both feet left the ground when he went to hit him, which could spell trouble for him. The AFL have said (admittedly not always stuck to it though) that if you elect to bump and jump off the ground, you’re gone.

 

[Gadzorks]

Going off the Crows statement about the tribunal tonight, they accept the high contact and severe impact grading but want it changed it from intentional to careless. Which under the guidelines, still results in 3 or more games.

You choose to bump, it's intentional irrespective of the consequence. Especially of ball.

Ridiculous challenge.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I’ll be really disappointed if the Tribunal caves on the grading. You only have to look at the vision to know it was intentional and more so that he intended to hurt Starc; every talking head has said his hit was intended to hurt even if he didn’t mean to hit him in the head so the incident can’t be careless but like you said expect they’ll fold like they always do.

Like, I get the hate etc, but honestly it's in the past, Adelaide play Essendon next week so honestly I hope they're somehow able to talk it down to just a week.

But he should absolutely have been red carded and Adelaide should have been down to 17 on the field for the remainder of the game. There is no way they should have been able to be advantaged by what happened to Starce in-game the way they were.

This is not a knee jerk reaction by the way... This is a view I've held ever since I was at the MCG the day Tom Stewart KO'd Dion Prestia in the first quarter of one of the best games I've ever seen live.

 

[p4p1]

Like, I get the hate etc, but honestly it's in the past, Adelaide play Essendon next week so honestly I hope they're somehow able to talk it down to just a week.

But he should absolutely have been red carded and Adelaide should have been down to 17 on the field for the remainder of the game. There is no way they should have been able to be advantaged by what happened to Starce in-game the way they were.

This is not a knee jerk reaction by the way... This is a view I've held ever since I was at the MCG the day Tom Stewart KO'd Dion Prestia in the first quarter of one of the best games I've ever seen live.

I am coming around to the red card. As the rule currently stands, it benefits (potentially) only the teams that play the suspended players team afterwards. The impacted team is still down one man.

My only issue with the red card is the AFL ****s up just about everything and red cards will be given in the wrong circumstances within the first week of a red card system being in place.