Preview Round 23, 2021: Richmond v Hawthorn, Saturday 21 August 1.35pm MCG

[Hodgey 15]

Is there a chance Shaun is playing on?? Very strange no announcement as yet.

Not much from media team about Clarko as yet either.
I suppose we'll see something next couple days.


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[Rioli2Rioli]

you do realise you are talking to Hawthorn here ...know your place

Nice flex

 

[offtherails9]

Not much from media team about Clarko as yet either.
I suppose we'll see something next couple days.


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Pretty weird tbh

 

[hawkman]

Pretty weird tbh

I was thinking Burgoyne might like to go quietly after all the fanfare of the 400th especially as there are no fans

 

[Hodginator]

So Moore, Punky, Worpel and JOM as possible ins. Plus Reeves and DGB in the wings. Some tough selection calls.

Feel a few kids will make way so some of the senior players like Punky and JOM can send off Clarko.

 

[Coathanger]

Yes, Richmond won't know what hit them Saturday!

 

[Hawthorn23]

Bringing in another W this week makes it 4 in a row, and eerily is comparable to 2006 where we finished off the year on a 4 week win streak as well. We had 9 wins for the season, and this year would be 8 wins and a draw. Clarko has mentioned the confidence it gave the group going into 2007 and beyond, and we know how that ended up.

Our list in 2006 was a bit younger and with a few higher draft picks in the side at the time.

But how do we stack up against that 2006 team? I was pretty young at the time, so don’t remember the games in detail. I’m hoping we are seeing a similar rise from our current group.

 

[Yardie]

Strapping Young Lad Can we have a COVID clean-up in aisle Preview.

Everyone, take it to the COVID thread please.

 

[thehardway]

Bringing in another W this week makes it 4 in a row, and eerily is comparable to 2006 where we finished off the year on a 4 week win streak as well. We had 9 wins for the season, and this year would be 8 wins and a draw. Clarko has mentioned the confidence it gave the group going into 2007 and beyond, and we know how that ended up.

Our list in 2006 was a bit younger and with a few higher draft picks in the side at the time.

But how do we stack up against that 2006 team? I was pretty young at the time, so don’t remember the games in detail. I’m hoping we are seeing a similar rise from our current group.

We finished 2019 strongly as well and that turned out to be a dead cat bounce. Let's hope this strong finish is a sign of bigger and better things.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Strapping Young Lad Can we have a COVID clean-up in aisle Preview.

Everyone, take it to the COVID thread please.

Done.


Warning to everyone else, mention Covid in this thread and you’ll get a ban.

 

[Kil Phearns]

Come about 4:20pm on Saturday, there may very well be tears shed in the loungeroom in the knowledge that the Clarko era is officially over. Footy won't be the same, and even the gronks in the footy media who pot him all the time (hello Purple and Caro, especially) might have to acknowledge that.

I know I'm not saying anything everyone here doesn't already know, but I think he'll take a year off footy to see his youngest finish school, then assess his options (of which he'll have plenty, not just coaching another AFL team).

Kinda fitting the last game is against old mate Dimma's Tigers, as they arrived at Hawthorn (as senior coach and assistant) at about the same time.

 

[Hawthorn23]

We finished 2019 strongly as well and that turned out to be a dead cat bounce. Let's hope this strong finish is a sign of bigger and better things.

Yep we did, but I’m looking at team demographic in particular. We are a lot younger.
Average age:
2019 R23 - 27yr 16d
2021 R22 - 25yr 162d

2006 R22 - 24yr 120d

 

[Flukey!]

Yep we did, but I’m looking at team demographic in particular. We are a lot younger.
Average age:
2019 R23 - 27yr 16d
2021 R22 - 25yr 162d

2006 R22 - 24yr 120d

What do the numbers look like for R1 2020?
That is more relevant I feel because it reflects the new list, not the old.
Ours will change again downwards, particularly with Burgers retirement.

 

[Hawthorn23]

What do the numbers look like for R1 2020?
That is more relevant I feel because it reflects the new list, not the old.
Ours will change again downwards, particularly with Burgers retirement.

28y 43d for R1 2020

You can see for sure that the club thought we had a better list than we did at the time. No Frawley, Smith, Puopolo and Scully on the list anymore

 

[Hawker55]

We finished 2019 strongly as well and that turned out to be a dead cat bounce. Let's hope this strong finish is a sign of bigger and better things.

Yes but people forget we also started 2020 very strongly. Beat Richmond, North and Brisbane and lost to the Cats at Kardinia. Covid really wrecked it for us as I think we could have been Finals bound last year in a normal season. I don't think we're far away at all - in Kosi/Lewis/Moore/Breust we have 4 x 30-40 goal a season forwards. Our defence is incredible, but our midfield needs some more depth. It wouldn't surprise if Day/Impey/CJ play a lot more midfield minutes next season, especially if Gunston is available and plays back.

We're not going to win a Premiership next year, but I'd be annoyed if we weren't contending for the 8 - the next step is generating depth, either through the draft(s) or by working on making players multipositional.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

What do the numbers look like for R1 2020?
That is more relevant I feel because it reflects the new list, not the old.
Ours will change again downwards, particularly with Burgers retirement.

We were like 28 avg 2020 R1, next year it'll be like 23 which is just crazy! even in the 22s if Shiels etc dont play.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

We finished 2019 strongly as well and that turned out to be a dead cat bounce. Let's hope this strong finish is a sign of bigger and better things.

2020 is a bit of an outlier though.
We can look back in hindsight and say we were never going to be any good now that we’ve seen how 2021 played out, but the fact is that we were handed the worst fixture of any club in the competition and we quite clearly had either a coaching or playing group who could not and did not handle the hub situation at all well.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

We were like 28 avg 2020 R1, next year it'll be like 23 which is just crazy! even in the 22s if Shiels etc dont play.

That's what a revolution looks like

 

[Steven Tyler]

Bringing in another W this week makes it 4 in a row, and eerily is comparable to 2006 where we finished off the year on a 4 week win streak as well. We had 9 wins for the season, and this year would be 8 wins and a draw. Clarko has mentioned the confidence it gave the group going into 2007 and beyond, and we know how that ended up.

Our list in 2006 was a bit younger and with a few higher draft picks in the side at the time.

But how do we stack up against that 2006 team? I was pretty young at the time, so don’t remember the games in detail. I’m hoping we are seeing a similar rise from our current group.

IMHO you can’t compare the 2 sides, because in 2006 we had the 2 best young KPP in the comp in Rough and Bud emerging, along with a youngish Hodge, Mitchell, Birchall etc

While Kozzie and Lewis show promising signs, they aren’t in the same ballpark

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Bringing in another W this week makes it 4 in a row, and eerily is comparable to 2006 where we finished off the year on a 4 week win streak as well. We had 9 wins for the season, and this year would be 8 wins and a draw. Clarko has mentioned the confidence it gave the group going into 2007 and beyond, and we know how that ended up.

Our list in 2006 was a bit younger and with a few higher draft picks in the side at the time.

But how do we stack up against that 2006 team? I was pretty young at the time, so don’t remember the games in detail. I’m hoping we are seeing a similar rise from our current group.

2006 we had a lot of kids with top tier potential, it isn't like that this time to that degree. We do have some hope moving forward now, but I wouldn't be expecting a 13 win SF season in 2022.

Very curious to see if Bruest, JOM and Worpel all return to the 22 this week.

 

[thehardway]

2020 is a bit of an outlier though.
We can look back in hindsight and say we were never going to be any good now that we’ve seen how 2021 played out, but the fact is that we were handed the worst fixture of any club in the competition and we quite clearly had either a coaching or playing group who could not and did not handle the hub situation at all well.

Yes, I think we are better placed now with a younger list with some potential. I'm just wary of getting too carried away and I'm sure the hard heads looking after list management won't be blinded by a few late season wins when delistments/trading/drafting are discussed.

 

[Hawthorn23]

IMHO you can’t compare the 2 sides, because in 2006 we had the 2 best young KPP in the comp in Rough and Bud emerging, along with a youngish Hodge, Mitchell, Birchall etc

While Kozzie and Lewis show promising signs, they aren’t in the same ballpark

I definitely agree in regard to young talent, especially in the midfield.

Although my counter argument would be how well Kosi and Lewis have performed in terms of goals kicked.

2021
Koschitzke - 27 goals in 19 games (1.42 per game)
Lewis - 20 goals in 13 games (1.54 per game)

Compared to Franklin/Roughead (who played games in defense 2006 albeit)

2006
Franklin - 31 goals in 14 games (2.2 per game)
Roughead - 12 goals in 20 games (0.6 per game)

Taking into account how much scoring has dropped in the last 15 years, I think Kosi/Lewis are both guys who are outperforming their draft positions heavily. Personally, I’m pretty confident in them having long successful careers if we have the midfield talent to assist them in the future.

 

[Brishawk]

I definitely agree in regard to young talent, especially in the midfield.

Although my counter argument would be how well Kosi and Lewis have performed in terms of goals kicked.

2021
Koschitzke - 27 goals in 19 games (1.42 per game)
Lewis - 20 goals in 13 games (1.54 per game)

Compared to Franklin/Roughead (who played games in defense 2006 albeit)

2006
Franklin - 31 goals in 14 games (2.2 per game)
Roughead - 12 goals in 20 games (0.6 per game)

Taking into account how much scoring has dropped in the last 15 years, I think Kosi/Lewis are both guys who are outperforming their draft positions heavily. Personally, I’m pretty confident in them having long successful careers if we have the midfield talent to assist them in the future.

And dare you to compare them at the same age

 

[Bardo State]

And dare you to compare them at the same age

Well in 2006, Kosi and Lewis would have been about 4-7 years old. So looking and Buddy and Rough's form at Auskick compared to Kosi and Lewis this year in the AFL, I'd say they're tracking very nicely.

And besides, Franklin's career was already going downhill by 22

 

[Slainte]

2006 we had a lot of kids with top tier potential, it isn't like that this time to that degree. We do have some hope moving forward now, but I wouldn't be expecting a 13 win SF season in 2022.

Very curious to see if Bruest, JOM and Worpel all return to the 22 this week.

If we take players with less than 50 games, I reckon the following have genuine top tier potential:
Scrimshaw, Jiath, Day, Reeves, Moore, Nash, Grainger-Barras
This is based on known physical attributes and demonstrated skills (glimpses only in the case of Reeves, Nash and Grainger-Barras.
There is a second group with a reasonable prospect:
Brockman, Lewis, Koschitzke, Bramble.
And a third group who are a chance:
Downie, Jeka, Newcombe
We are likely to pick up at least two additional top-tier prospects in the draft.

That will give us 16 potential top-tier players at the beginning of the 2022 season. They won't all make it to the top tier but if half do we will have 8 to add to the established top-tier of Wingard, Breust, Gunston and O'Meara with the probability of picking up another top-tier player via free-agency within the next two years. The is a pretty good base for a tilt.