Round 3:- Blues V Bombers pre match discussion

[The Donners]

That goes to show you know nothing about football, I'll take a side of Black, Power, Johnstone, Rich, Dalziell, Adcock, Rischitelli, Drummond, Brown, Bradshaw, Luenberger etc over Jobe "the only reason i'm playing AFL is because my old man is Tim" Watson, Winderlich, Stanton, Dyson, Lovett, McVeigh and old men Lloyd and Lucas and Fletcher any day of the week!! Brisbane played well last week, we played better.

Bellchambers killed Leuenberger in the NAB Cup. Dalziell, Adock, Drummond and Rischitelli are very average hence they haven't made the finals since '04, the last time Essendon made the finals. Power is a gun, Brown is all but finished (you heard it here first!) and Black and Johnstone have 1-2 years left tops (as top midfielders).

So if we lose Lloyd, Lucas and Fletcher we have replacements... Brisbane do not... except Clark <s******>...

Win lose or draw this week we have much more upside than the bombers who have not got much to look forward to over the next five years except mediocrity.

Please tell me why? We've had more NAB Rising Star nominations over the past 3-4 years than Carlton. We've got talented young KPPs, Hurley, Pears and Ryder are far more promising than Jamison, Bower and Thornton. Zaharikis has far better kicking skills than Murphy, we've got one of the competitions best outside midfielders in Lovett and we have Prismall and Welsh to come into an already competent, albeit underrated, midfield. Where Carlton have polish Essendon have leg speed and toughness.

The only reason we will lose is if our lads turn up thinking the points are in the bag like they did in the second game versus the bombers last year, i hope that will not happen again.

The Bombers beat Freo last week who according to some experts should not be in the AFL and need to grow a spine, the quality of the game was extremely poor from what i saw of it, our game was the polar opposite fast paced and skillful.

If we turn up to play i expect a comfortable victory regardless of what Essendon throw at us, but as is the case when these two meet you never know!

It's going to hurt some Carlton supporters deeply when Essendon win on Saturday night, I'm supremely confident of victory! Carlton have talked themselves up so much they starting to believe they're better than they are.

Essendon will be far too tough around stoppages for Carlton.

 

[parrot]

....
Personally I'm of the persuasion that your mids > ours, but our forwards and backs > yours, although our midfield performed much better than suspected last year....

Your midfield got thumped by Port only 2 weeks ago. It's still rubbish, and beating Freo at home doesn't change anything. The Dons badly need some class through the middle. Your defense is also terrible. It had the most points kicked against them in 2008. Fact. And this year it couldn't contain an ordinary Port forward setup. Who exactly are your KP forwards this year? Lucus has been terrible, and Matty Lloyd has been moved away from FF because he can't convert forward 50 opportunities anymore. Both these guys are well over 30 and played their best footy 5+ years ago. By contrast Fev is on fire, Eddie has been excellent, Garlett great, Mitch Robinson and Houllihan excellent on the HFF, with Cloke and Wiggins providing some physical presence. Plus our mid's have serious goal kicking potential. It's a potent forward setup.

 

[blueblooded]

Please tell me why? We've had more NAB Rising Star nominations over the past 3-4 years than Carlton. We've got talented young KPPs, Hurley, Pears and Ryder are far more promising than Jamison, Bower and Thornton. Zaharikis has far better kicking skills than Murphy, we've got one of the competitions best outside midfielders in Lovett and we have Prismall and Welsh to come into an already competent, albeit underrated, midfield. Where Carlton have polish Essendon have leg speed and toughness.

It's going to hurt some Carlton supporters deeply when Essendon win on Saturday night, I'm supremely confident of victory! Carlton have talked themselves up so much they starting to believe they're better than they are.

Essendon will be far too tough around stoppages for Carlton.

You are a funny man sir i particularly liked the comment re zaharakis and murphy, have a look at some of the goals murph has kicked this year and come back and talk to me. Zaharakis had a good debut but gee you're going a bit early! Murphy touches the ball 30 times a game!! Goose.

Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Stevens, Grigg, Hadley, Simpson, Scotland, Kruezer is better than most midfields in the league let alone your z grade midfield.

You are going to need alot go right on the night to break even with it. If our lads come to play and exert the pressure they have in the first two weeks i'm tipping 8+ goals....i'm pretty confident they will given there is about 6 or 7 guys in the VFL queing up to take spots if they don't!

 

[yibbida]

Games are won on the field in reality, not is dreams of grandeur from Essendon supporters....

Carlton by at least 6 goals.

 

[nighthawk]

Interesting.
So you are saying you have no depth. Fair enough.

On the contrary, I think we're developing some fairly good depth. Think about it, choose your seven best mids, then pick 5 of them to get rid of. And the two you keep can't even be your best two. I think any team would struggle with that dilemma.

As you say, full lists might be closer, but remember that adds Warnock, Jamison and Walker to our team.

Haha, mate, TBH those three don't even compare to our players out.

The way I look at it

Carltons mids>>Essendons Mids
Carltons Forwards>>Essendons Back
Carltons Backs===Essendons Forwards

Ummm... Carlton's backs don't compare to Essendon's forwards. You've been completely blinded by bias if you truly believe that. Carlton's forwards again aren't a huge scare for most teams (apart from fev), but we don't have our ideal backline and even then we're quite young down there so you may be right. Hopefully Knights sees the light keeps Ryder down back. I already said carltons mids are your clear strength, and that while previously we've been able to match them despite the mismatch on paper, this game we will especially struggle.

 

[Bluebear]

Think about it, choose your seven best mids, then pick 5 of them to get rid of. And the two you keep can't even be your best two. I think any team would struggle with that dilemma.

O.K.

Judd
Stevens
Murphy
Gibbs
Hadley
Simpson
Scotland

Grigg
Walker
Carrazzo

So if you allow me a fit Walker and Carrazzo under your guide, I would back Murphy, Gibbs, Grigg, Walker, Carrazzo, Robinson, Betts, Bentick, against anything you suggested above.

Any more excuses?

 

[40yearBLUE]

Another Essendon poster has suggested that McVeigh could be available for selection this week. Given that he was two weeks away after round 1, and unless he's made a miraculous recovery over the past week or so, I wouldn't have thought he'd be ready this week.

Also, should Ryder play forward, it leaves Fletcher to marshall a very young backline, that will have to come up against Fevola, Kreuzer, Cloke, Wiggins, Betts and some resting mids.

The way I look at it

Carltons mids>>Essendons Mids
Carltons Forwards>>Essendons Back
Carltons Backs===Essendons Forwards

The only real ascendancy I see Essendon having is in the ruck with Hille over Kreuzer/Jacobs. Only thing is, Essendon will lose any advantage here when Hille rests forward, like he did against Fremantle.

That would be true if we were measuring Hille and Kreuze of last year. This year the bombers have been smashed in the ruck in both games by more than 2:1. The blinded bomber fans coming on here saying Hille is in career best form are measuring off last year. So far Hille has not recaptured that form. He may be a standout Bomber, which lets face it, cant be hard in a team where Lloyd and Lucas have barely bothered the scorers so far, but that is blinding them and some of us into thinking Hille will maul our rucks. I think the opposite is true and instead the Bomber fans will wonder what the hell hit them when Jacobs and a wide bodied Kruezer hit Hille head on.

 

[nighthawk]

Your midfield got thumped by Port only 2 weeks ago. It's still rubbish, and beating Freo at home doesn't change anything. The Dons badly need some class through the middle. Your defense is also terrible. It had the most points kicked against them in 2008. Fact. And this year it couldn't contain an ordinary Port forward setup. Who exactly are your KP forwards this year? Lucus has been terrible, and Matty Lloyd has been moved away from FF because he can't convert forward 50 opportunities anymore. Both these guys are well over 30 and played their best footy 5+ years ago. By contrast Fev is on fire, Eddie has been excellent, Garlett great, Mitch Robinson and Houllihan excellent on the HFF, with Cloke and Wiggins providing some physical presence. Plus our mid's have serious goal kicking potential. It's a potent forward setup.

So... apparantely you didn't read my post. It's okay mate, I'll summarise it for you.

OUR MIDFIELD IS ALMOST ALL OUT INJURED. WE WILL NOT WIN THIS GAME.

Yes our midfield against Port was rubbish, and it will remain rubbish as long as we are missing so many players.

In terms of your assessment of last year, I think some of it is fair. Lucas was obviously out for the majority of the season, Lloyd had one of his best seasons in years and booted 62 goals in 21 games from further away from goals. Also, Essendon had a record high number of post-season surgeries, and at some points were forced to play rookies because the number of injuries was just ridiculous.

Obviously injuries aren't a valid excuse, but the point I'm making is it's hardly to really assess the talent of a list when the list is never given a chance to show themselves.

 

[nighthawk]

O.K.

Judd
Stevens
Murphy
Gibbs
Hadley
Simpson
Scotland

Grigg
Walker
Carrazzo

So if you allow me a fit Walker and Carrazzo under your guide, I would back Murphy, Gibbs, Grigg, Walker, Carrazzo, Robinson, Betts, Bentick, against anything you suggested above.

Any more excuses?

Fair enough. Those seven you mentioned against Watson, Stanton, Lovett, Winderlich, Houli, Davey and Skipworth would be alot closer than the teams which will be taking the field this weekend.

Do you disagree?

 

[Ben the Gooner]

Another Essendon poster has suggested that McVeigh could be available for selection this week. Given that he was two weeks away after round 1, and unless he's made a miraculous recovery over the past week or so, I wouldn't have thought he'd be ready this week.

Apparantly he trained without a hiccup today. Expect him lining up on your captain on Saturday night.

Also, should Ryder play forward, it leaves Fletcher to marshall a very young backline, that will have to come up against Fevola, Kreuzer, Cloke, Wiggins, Betts and some resting mids.

Fev and Betts aside, that is hardly a potent forwardline. None of the other three should provide any major hiccups. Pears will probably take Fev, and Fev will kick a bag like he usually does. Slattery will take Betts who he normally beats. Kreuzer will get Fletch, Cloke Daniher and Wiggins Myers/Dempsey/Quinn. That's hardly a thrashing.

The way I look at it

Carltons mids>>Essendons Mids
Carltons Forwards>>Essendons Back
Carltons Backs===Essendons Forwards

You'd be a fool to disagree with the first statement. Fev at full strength probably validates the second, but who knows where his injury is at? The third statement is a nonsense. Lloyd and Lucas, whatever you say about their form, are well capable of kicking a bag on anyone, let alone an inexperienced Bower and Austin/Setanta.

The only real ascendancy I see Essendon having is in the ruck with Hille over Kreuzer/Jacobs. Only thing is, Essendon will lose any advantage here when Hille rests forward, like he did against Fremantle.

Ryder is still a superior ruckman to Jacobs and Kreuzer. Let's face it, these two have a stack of potential but aren't great at this stage.

 

[jonoman89]

So... apparantely you didn't read my post. It's okay mate, I'll summarise it for you.

OUR MIDFIELD IS ALMOST ALL OUT INJURED. WE WILL NOT WIN THIS GAME.

Yes our midfield against Port was rubbish, and it will remain rubbish as long as we are missing so many players.

In terms of your assessment of last year, I think some of it is fair. Lucas was obviously out for the majority of the season, Lloyd had one of his best seasons in years and booted 62 goals in 21 games from further away from goals. Also, Essendon had a record high number of post-season surgeries, and at some points were forced to play rookies because the number of injuries was just ridiculous.

Obviously injuries aren't a valid excuse, but the point I'm making is it's hardly to really assess the talent of a list when the list is never given a chance to show themselves.

Typical Essendon excuses. We would beat you if you had your best 22 on the park.

There should be a law that Essendon supporters can't bitch about their injuries.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

That would be true if we were measuring Hille and Kreuze of last year. This year the bombers have been smashed in the ruck in both games by more than 2:1. The blinded bomber fans coming on here saying Hille is in career best form are measuring off last year. So far Hille has not recaptured that form. He may be a standout Bomber, which lets face it, cant be hard in a team where Lloyd and Lucas have barely bothered the scorers so far, but that is blinding them and some of us into thinking Hille will maul our rucks. I think the opposite is true and instead the Bomber fans will wonder what the hell hit them when Jacobs and a wide bodied Kruezer hit Hille head on.

Hille has rucked against Brogan, Lade and Sandilands so far.
Kreuzer/Jacobs have rucked against an out-of-sorts Simmonds, Browne, Luenberger and Clark so far.

Hardly a fair comparison.

If you think Jacobs and Kreuzer will out-ruck Hille, you will be a tad surprised on Saturday night.

 

[40yearBLUE]

Hille has rucked against Brogan, Lade and Sandilands so far.
Kreuzer/Jacobs have rucked against an out-of-sorts Simmonds, Browne, Luenberger and Clark so far.

Hardly a fair comparison.

If you think Jacobs and Kreuzer will out-ruck Hille, you will be a tad surprised on Saturday night.

I am saying the way Hille is rucking so far this year, I dont care who his opponent is by the way, if you cant hold your own against rucks from 2 bottom 4 teams of last year what hope do you have, my granny could out ruck them. So off you go into your little fantasy world where just being tall and getting on the park qualifies you for being in career best form.

It is gonna get real ugly real fast for you this weekend. Some of you think we have not played any real opposition, wait until you play some real opposition, like the Tigers you will get an idea real fast where your list really is at.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

my granny could out ruck them.

Unless your granny is Dean Cox, you just lost all of your credibility.

 

[40yearBLUE]

Apparantly he trained without a hiccup today. Expect him lining up on your captain on Saturday night.



Fev and Betts aside, that is hardly a potent forwardline. None of the other three should provide any major hiccups. Pears will probably take Fev, and Fev will kick a bag like he usually does. Slattery will take Betts who he normally beats. Kreuzer will get Fletch, Cloke Daniher and Wiggins Myers/Dempsey/Quinn. That's hardly a thrashing.



You'd be a fool to disagree with the first statement. Fev at full strength probably validates the second, but who knows where his injury is at? The third statement is a nonsense. Lloyd and Lucas, whatever you say about their form, are well capable of kicking a bag on anyone, let alone an inexperienced Bower and Austin/Setanta.



Ryder is still a superior ruckman to Jacobs and Kreuzer. Let's face it, these two have a stack of potential but aren't great at this stage.

Let me see if I have this right, you are saying that a ruckman that has a total of 9 hit outs in 2 games (average for you slow bombers of 4.5 per match) is a better ruckman than say Jacobs 30 (Average 15) , Kruezer 42 (Average 21). Are you on insane? You are dreaming man.

 

[Bluebear]

Fair enough. Those seven you mentioned against Watson, Stanton, Lovett, Winderlich, Houli, Davey and Skipworth would be alot closer than the teams which will be taking the field this weekend.

Do you disagree?

Closer. Well duh!

The point you posed was whether we would struggle.

While we wouldn't be quite as competitive, we wouldn't struggle.

As for Saturday, its a danger game simply because its the Bombers.

I remember a game about 10 years ago on a Friday night IIRD where Kouta, Braddles, SOS and several others were late withdrawals. We got up. Lists mean very little when it comes to these two teams.

 

[Silvagnis]

Haha, mate, TBH those three don't even compare to our players out.

A fit and firing Walker isn't more talented than Welsh, Reimers and Prismall who are injured.

I wonder why people bother to comment if they don't know the player who has hardly played under Ratten due to injury.

Only the Bombers lost players to injury last year.

Hadley, Bower, Walker, Houlihan and Jamison played every game in 2008, so the Bombers have heaps of upside and untapped talent.

Lloyd and Lucas, whatever you say about their form, are well capable of kicking a bag on anyone, let alone an inexperienced Bower and Austin/Setanta.

Ryder is still a superior ruckman to Jacobs and Kreuzer. Let's face it, these two have a stack of potential but aren't great at this stage.

I rest my case.

Quinn and Zaharakis are better footballers than Steven Browne.

Reimers is a better talent than Austin too.

 

[MaggieNo20]

Whats going on with Fev? Will he play or not? Saw him on crutches on Monday.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

Let me see if I have this right, you are saying that a ruckman that has a total of 9 hit outs in 2 games (average for you slow bombers of 4.5 per match) is a better ruckman than say Jacobs 30 (Average 15) , Kruezer 42 (Average 21). Are you on insane? You are dreaming man.

Yeah, pretty much.

Quinn and Zaharakis are better footballers than Steven Browne.

Reimers is a better talent than Austin too.

Quinn aside, I don't disagree with any of those.

 

[40yearBLUE]

Yeah, pretty much.

9 hit outs in 2 games (4 and 5) is a disgrace for a relieveing ruckman. CLoke had nearly as many hit outs and hasnt contested a centre bounce this year. And you have the hide to say I have lost credibility. You are totally in denial dude.

 

[topdogs]

9 hit outs in 2 games (4 and 5) is a disgrace for a relieveing ruckman. CLoke had nearly as many hit outs and hasnt contested a centre bounce this year. And you have the hide to say I have lost credibility. You are totally in denial dude.

Difference is he's not used to ruck as much as a normal back-up ruckman. Spent very little time in the ruck.

 

[true_blue_69]

Whats going on with Fev? Will he play or not? Saw him on crutches on Monday.

Fev has been on those crutches after we played our last praccy match in WA (which was when he injured his heel)
from what I know, he played rnd 1 & 2 being on crutches during both of those weeks.
No need to worry about Fev..... he is raring to go & stated he wants to play

edit: the crutches are a precautionary thing to try & aid his heel in healing properly (so to speak)
assists him in keeping his weight off his foot during the week

 

[Boucks09]

Let's have a look at the last time we played againast eachother in Round 13 2008.

In that game the following were the key stats IMO:

Carlton

Fevola kicked 7 goals
Stevens had 30 touches
Murphy had 27 touches
Gibbs had 18 touches
Judd had 12 touches (after being concussed with the Lloyd collision)
Hadley was out injured
Carazzo had 27 touches

Given this years form you would expect both Gibbs' Judd's output to increase significantly with Hadley to have a similar impact as Carazzo (albeit as an inside midfielder probably tagging).

The only significant changes in 2009 is the following:

- Houlihan is fit and firing
- Hadley is fit (but Carazzo out)
- Robinson (who is impressive)
- Joseph (who has done a respectable tagging role)
- Garlett (who provides some defensive pressure but averages 11.5 possies and 0.5 goals)
- Johnson (a lesser version of Carazzo)
- Jacobs (who is filling in until Warnock is ready)

Essendon

Lloyd and Lucas kicked 4 and 1 goals respectively
Hille dominated the ruck
Watson had 27 touches
Monfries kicked 4 goals and 25 possies
Stanton, McVeigh and Lovett had quiet days
Slattery went off concussed in the first quarter

Given this years form you would expect Lloyd and Lucas to kick no more than 3-5 between them. Hille will continue to dominate the ruck (he hasn't been at his best but he has also been rucking virtually on his own against great ruckman). Watson will provide the same output. Monfries would drop in terms of goals. Stanton and Lovett will increase output and McVeigh may be around the same given its his first game.

The only significant changes in 2009 is the following:

- Pears and Daniher into the side as key defenders (having nullified Pavlich and Tarrant last week)
- Zaharakis into the midfield (the same impact as Robinson)
- Hocking in as a tagger who wins 20+ possessions (much higher impact than Joseph)
- Quinn (who the **** knows how he will go, but he won't punch a teammate)
- Davey (who is a better version of Garlett)
- Dempsey (who is the equivalent of Johnson)
- Skipworth (just below Hadley but only just)

It's annoying that many of you are viewing this game with so much bias rather than actually looking at the game with an open mindset. Yes you would expect Carlton to win this game given the two sides on the park. But we aren't as bad as you are making out and I think it is in your own best interests to stop over hyping certain elements of your team. Yes your midfield is the second best in the competiton (to say you are better than Geelong is utterly ridiculous), but there are CURRENT glaring areas of your side which aren't great.

What if Fevola goes down for the year who will kick your goals?
What if Waite gets injured?

You have a lack of KPP players and whilst your backline is developing, they are not in the top 10 defenses in the competition. Your forward options without Fevola aren't great as they would all struggle with the best defender each week. Enjoy the success as it has been a long time coming, but don't get too carried away just yet....

 

[parrot]

....But we aren't as bad as you are making out and I think it is in ........

Well Essendon have a truly terrible midfield, statistically the worse defense in the AFL in 2008 (fact), and a forward llne relying on 2, well over 30 year olds who can no longer kick goals at this level. Only 2 weeks ago you were thumped by Port, and last week had an unconvincing win against Freo on your home turf. Ruck situation - Hille is serviceable, and then there's no one else. Gameplan and poor coaching have also been issues, and I'd be surprised if Knights isn't replaced at the end of the season. He wasn't your first choice, or even 2nd choice you'll recall. Last Resort. Essendon will be getting a whole lot worse before they improve I'm afraid. You need 3 quality midfielders, and another 2 quality KP defenders, and another 2 quality KP forwards i.e. another 3 drafts minimum. You're in this situation because of Sheed's top up recruting addiction in his last 3-4 years. Getting the coaching appointment wrong didn't help either. I guess anything could happen on the day, but in terms of raw talent, and player quality, the Blues should win this one by 80 points or so.

 

[Murph_The_Smurf]

Well Essendon have a truly terrible midfield, statistically the worse defense in the AFL in 2008 (fact), and a forward llne relying on 2, well over 30 year olds who can no longer kick goals at this level. Only 2 weeks ago you were thumped by Port, and last week had an unconvincing win against Freo on your home turf. Ruck situation - Hille is serviceable, and then there's no one else. Gameplan and poor coaching have also been issues, and I'd be surprised if Knights isn't replaced at the end of the season. He wasn't your first choice, or even 2nd choice you'll recall. Last Resort. Essendon will be getting a whole lot worse before they improve I'm afraid. You need 3 quality midfielders, and another 2 quality KP defenders, and another 2 quality KP forwards i.e. another 3 drafts minimum. You're in this situation because of Sheed's top up recruting addiction in his last 3-4 years. Getting the coaching appointment wrong didn't help either. I guess anything could happen on the day, but in terms of raw talent, and player quality, the Blues should win this one by 80 points or so.

I love it