Preview Semi-Final: Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows, MCG, 18 September 2015 @ 7.50pm

[Flag08]

What's with this Smith injured talk? That was last week. He got through the game and will be cherry ripe next week. Badly need his run and pace on the G.
Now, gunstall either will be injured or needs a spell anyway, replace with Shoe or Silly, lake or Frawley just go, replaced by Spang. Doc plays from the start, Suckers at Box Hill and Billy in. If Hilly or Breust want to squib it again Jed would be happy to take their spot.

 

[Ranj Sri Lanka]

I could be wrong. But I strongly suspect that despite a disappointing performance which resulted in a loss, we will not be making wholesale changes.
I think Clarko will back our premiership boys in; the experience and knowledge has to be worth something?
Gunton's knee looked to be a mess, hobbling around the boundary wrapped in ice after the siren. Maybe Smith isn't 100%..
I think it's too late in the season to be messing with structures, experimenting, only injured players will be dropped. Right now, that's Gunston only.
Well, they're my thoughts, have to wait and see what unfolds in reality. #inclarkowetrust

Sucking to me never fit the structure anyway. Tell me one time his so call great kick benefited us It was always a 30degree bull shit chip and lately 15 degrees. Even as far as from Sri Lanka he looks not suitable for this great team...

 

[Ranj Sri Lanka]

Depending on our opponent I suggest:

For Dogs:
Out - Hale, Lake, Gunston (if injured), Smith (if not okay) and Suckling
In - Cegs, Shoey (with Frawley back), Hartung, Howe and Lithers

For Adelaide:
Out - Hale, Gunston (if injured), Smith (if not okay), Suckling and Frawley
In - Cegs, Shoey, Hartung, Howe and Spangh

Can't see this happening, but....

Dont know how much I hate this bloke but it is still better we play one man less than play that crap Suckling...

 

[Jaeger]

I think we'll be playing the Crows

 

[Move P]

Please no more Suckling.

Id play Howe or Gus.

Shoe in for Gunston.

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

Clearly Richmond, Port and now West Coast have worked out how to strangle our ball movement out of defense by hassling the ball carrier in the back half and midfield. The turnovers under pressure turn into goals to the opps, as our players are anticipating better disposal, and are therefore out of position, as Clarko noted in his presser.

Their pressure on the ball carrier is in stark contrast to our approach of trying to corral the ball carrier to force a kick down the line, and a new contest. The upside of their approach is that our boys lose confidence in their disposal, and they get physically punished quite frequently. The downside of our approach is that they grow confident in their disposal and we don't physically challenge them.

One way to deal with the one-on-one pressure is elite kicking to advantage, but we have proved unable to do this in all three of these games. I reckon the fact that so many teams were using simple zones has covered up the fact that our ageing team has lost speed. The ball carrier can no longer get enough of a break to reduce the pressure before the kick, and the intended recipient is no longer getting such a break on their opponent, so an interception or punch comes more frequently. After three losses, I think it is time to dump this strategy.

As I said after the loss to Port, we need more speed, grunt, attack on the ball and enthusiasm. We were looking pretty sad in a couple of games last year till Langford and Duyrea lifted us. We need Langford to stay in, Litherland to come in (probably for Stratton) and Duyrea to start on the ground (Suckling is a better sub - coming on once the heat is out of the game). The argument against these three is that they have poor disposal. While this is true, the whole team was reduced to kicking in hope against the pressure tactics.

The only other changes I can imagine are to deal with injuries (Smith? Gunston?), and perhaps Howe for Lewis, whose clangers were truly awful, and who just does not put on any defensive pressure.

After all that, I reckon Clarko was right that we made lots of unpressured errors in the first half that made everyone look terrible. Reckon that was just a response to two weeks without any pressure, the timing was just out. Next week we will be better in our disposal, unpressured and under pressure, purely because the game will seem a bit slower.

Duryea is a beautiful kick of the ball

 

[Turly]

Not after that disgraceful effort. What a QF final not motivation enough? Apart from Mitch and Shels, the rest were a disgrace!!

Writing us off after 1 poor game.

I've heard this before

 

[glenferry23]

Pleasing to see a number of comments in favour of Shoey returning. He really hasn't done much wrong this season and has played that floating forward role particularly well.

Crashes packs. Contests. Tackles. And a clinical set shot. Was arguably our best player against Port in an otherwise very poor showing from his teammates.

Very unlucky to be dropped but such is the pressure on spots in the 22.

He deserves his chance to make an impact this finals campaign.

 

[WWSD]

If we play the Bulldogs one of Lake or Frawley have to make way for team balance. If it's against the Crows expect both to stay in the side. Unfortunately Hale's time is up. He's been a great servant of our club since 2011 but he can't be carried into a semi final. I hate to say it but he's now become a liability in the team and defenders just run off him each time and we are getting hurt on the counter attack. Jonathon Ceglar to come in next week and play as the number one ruck with McEvoy to take over Hale's role in the team as the forward/second ruck.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It would also be appreciated if we could leave the arrogance at the door in this thread. It just keeps back firing

It doesn't really matter what is written here, though, as it has no bearing on the result.....and we should be confident.

 

[Bumpswithagrin]

We will be playing on the Friday night according to the ABC. The Prelim against Freo for whoever makes it will be on the following Friday night.

 

[reubski23]

We still have a massive chance:

We will win next week-we have too much pride.

Then Fremantle they need to score more than 85 to beat us, I just can't see that happening.

I don't think Gunston is a massive a out as people are saying. Our Forward 50 has been very Geelong 2010 like - too much sharing and smart arsey handballs. Roughness to be the focal point with Bruest, Schoey and Rioli are good enough to win the GF.

I'm a pretty unbias supporter I thought WCE were going to win last night. But I still have a feeling that we will win the GF

 

[spudmaster]

Go Doggies!
Enough interstate sides already, we don't need another.
And, worst comes to the worst and we go out in straight sets, I'd have no issues cheering the doggies on for at least another week, whereas the crows can go and get fruitcaked.

 

[Bardo State]

Against the dogs I think we'd need to pull one of Lake or Frawley, probably Lake just due to his lack of agility. Gunston out is a big worry.

Presuming it is the dogs

Out: Lake, Gunston

In: Schoenmakers, Hartung/Howe

 

[Hawthorn23]

What's everyone's prognosis on Gunners? Doesn't have that suspect tear in the knee that Larkins thought he had (I always disregard his word now, stuffed it up too many times now). Hopefully it's a minor ankle strain and he can get up, we need his sure head when under pressure and is extremely hard to replace.

Otherwise, if he doesn't pull up, I hope Cyril is playing 80-90% as a deep forward, burnt himself out in that first quarter yesterday and he is too important of a player to go missing and when we need him.

Have faith guys!

 

[Hong Kong Hawk]

Win next week and we get Freo with more than half their team having played only one march in a month - big, big chance people. Even with match fitness Freo can only kick 10 goals, and struggle to contain us.

 

[Flukey!]

I think we'll be playing the Crows

Me too.
The G holds no fears for them where as the Doggies are not great away from the Dome.

 

[VandoHawk]

Sometimes playing your most experienced players, those who have already earned the brownie points in previous years, isn't really the best plan of action. For Clarko said we fielded our best team against the Eagles, which is probably true in terms of development, talent and previously attained glory but it all came somewhat unravelled.

We're too slow, and other teams know it: both in the backline and in the midfield. Stratton, Lake, Gibson, Hodge (or Mitchell) and Sucking aren't overly quick when played in defence and seem to be extremely vulnerable on the counter attack.

Frawley, Birchall and Duryea are really the only speedy ones: but Birchall isn't really a run and a tackle type of player in the backline, Frawley isn't being used in the backline and I feel like he isn't 100% adapted to our structures yet and Duryea was played as a substitute (thank God it's gone next year).

Then there's our midfield: Hodge, Mitchell and Lewis are fantastic players but they aren't quick at all. Burgoyne's quick, but his age is starting to play a factor. The B grade players that surround them, Langford and Sheils, aren't particularly quick either. The ruck men we choose to play, Hale and McEvoy, are like giant lumbering oaks and not the athletic ruckman we probably need.

To counter this weakness, we play fast reciever players on the wings in Hartung, Hill and Smith. These players seldom chase and tackle the ball carrier because that is not their intended role (and our team slogan is "Play Your Role.") Still, their usage is usually justified as they can tear teams apart. But when Smith is playing injured, Hill is down on form and you choose not to play Hartung suddenly your lack of pace becomes painfully evident.

So the game plan suddenly heavily replies upon manic pressure to keep the ball in our forwardline through Puopolo, Rioli, Bruest and the athleticism of Gunston and Roughead to create scoring oppurtunities. Yet when the ball slingshots, it almost always results in a goal because all our speed is front loaded quite literally. And when you're forced to play Roughead and Rioli in the midfield because you lack explosive pace, you lose the forward pressure you rely on to score. Add to the fact that Gunston was playing injured and Bruest had a shocker and you quickly realize that your only forward pressure player was Puopolo: one man having to do the job of 5.

It becomes frustratingly easy for the opposing players to flood the forwardline, or simply outnumber the forwards, and slingshot to their goal by exploiting our lack of pace when trying to counter a surge. Kennedy could run 70 metres from the middle of ground to kicking a goal up forward when we turned the ball over, and poor Lake couldn't follow nor could Gibson or Stratton.

So what can we band-aid next week?

1. An athletic ruckman: Jonathon Ceglar
2. Pace from the backline: Angus Litherland (and Duryea for a full game)
3. Some extra speed to utilize: Billy Hartung
4. An unfortunate replacement for Gunston: Ryan Shoenmakers
5. An explosive player in the midfield: ???

Ins: Ceglar, Litherland, Shoenmakers
Out: Hale (Omitted), Suckling (Omitted), Gunston (injured)

B: Gibson, Lake, Duryea

HB: Birchall, Frawley, Litherland

C: Hill, Mitchell, Smith

HF: Rioli, Shoenmakers, Burgoyne

F: Breust, Roughead, Puopolo

R: Ceglar, Hodge, Mitchell

INT: Stratton, McEvoy, Langford (substitute), Sheils

Emg: Hartung, Howe, Spangher

More mobile ruckman in Ceglar to do some work around the ground. We lose a bit of forward presence, but Hale hasn't really been doing that anyway. Ceglar also better at the jumps and taps. Litherland provides the much needed pace off half back with his lightning speed and booming kick. We lose a bit of accuracy, but Suckling's kicking has been extremely cute, ineffective, frustrating and to top it all off his role in the team is murky: doesn't run hard enough or use his kicking often enough to justify his use as a midfielder, doesn't kick enough goals and apply enough pressure to be a small forward and we all know how bad he is defensively. Shoenmakers for injured Gunston so we don't have to play Lake forward and have some much needed desperation.

Would love to see the Spang in our side as we haven't lost a game at the MCG with him playing and have only lost one in total while Jesus walks the field. But he'd need to take Frawley's spot, and as much as I'd prefer Spangher to play ahead of Frawley it isn't really feasible for the selectors. I'll be damned if any of these changes are, since Clarko thinks we fielded our strongest team.

You may notice that criteria 5 has been overlooked. This is because Anderson and Sicily are really the two explosive young players on the cusp of selection (Howe could be an explosive mid but he's more of a halfback at this stage of development), and both probably aren't going to get a sniff next week. Our midfield will still be slow, and we'll just have to pray that the likes of Mitchell, Hodge and Lewis can do enough.

Similarly, Billy Hartung has to usurp someone's place in the side and pave from the backline takes precedence. If Smithy doesn't pull up, then he comes in for Smithy. Otherwise, he'll have to take Will Langford's role but Langford is also a very capable player. It really comes down to what the selectors want.

...Long post. My fingers are cramped.

 

[seysearles]

Who do we want to win this Bulldgos v Crows game? Im not sure. We have beaten both of them comprehensively this season.
i like the home ground advantage we get v Adelaide but have more A-graders and could be on some sort of inspired mission for Phil Walsh. I think I am on the Dogs.

 

[The Lemon]

Dogs it is

 

[Taskmaster]

Writing us off after 1 poor game.

I've heard this before

Didn't say i was writing them off. I will if we put out the same shit we dished out last night. That wont beat anyone!

I'm hoping I see the real Hawthorn in the next 3 weeks.

 

[The Lemon]

stringer done a string, and he's back on

 

[Goats]

It doesn't really matter what is written here, though, as it has no bearing on the result.....and we should be confident.

Why should we be confident?

We've been left wanting for endeavour and intensity every time we've been hunted this year.

Both the Crows and Dogs play a similar style to the teams that have troubled us this season and we've been carrying a few out of form players that show no signs of improving, namely Stratts, Birch, Hill and Suckling. Because these players haven't been forced to earn their spots I don't think the match committee have many options in regards to changes.

Both teams who we might play next week have been in better form over the last 4 weeks and would be licking their lips at getting some Hawk on their fork.

 

[Off The Couch]

It doesn't really matter what is written here, though, as it has no bearing on the result.....and we should be confident.

I wasn't aware of that

 

[juice t]

Well we can fight fire with fire