Preview St Kilda V North Melbourne Sunday 3:20 Etihad Stadium

[azza77]

Hey boys sorry to intrude but how much further off is Roberton? Im reading mixed reports with some saying it was a knee, others saying its a hammy? Wil he comeback through the VFL too?

In terms of the game itself, please don't make the same mistake we did in round 1. We decided to leave a KPP out in Hartigan for one of the most useless spuds in NVB and it didnt work. North's talls had a field day against us and not having that 3rd tall in our backline really stood out. Think you guys really need to add one of Lee or Goddard into your side for this week. I do think you guys stand a very good chance however because of how your list is made up. North are quite a slow side through the midfield and back 6. You guys just have so many midfielder and half forwards who are quick and deliver manic pressure. Put enough pressure on them through the midfield and their 3 pronged attack becomes less of an issue.

 

[Jack Stevens]

If we come into the game switched on, I genuinely think we're a chance. North weren't all that flash on Friday night, and maybe, just maybe, the hype and overconfidence of being undefeated will catch up with them.

The fact that GOP Petrie is reaching the 300 game milestone just weeks after future HOFer Riewoldt is bugging me for some reason.

Oh, and no doubt Acres will be an out this week

 

[hayes]

No Goddard or Lee for mine if their form isn't good enough. Stick with Fisher, Dempster and Gilbert back there until they're forced out of that spot. If we get smashed in the midfield it won't matter who's there anyway. If Roberton is ready he comes in for.....someone.

I have confidence that we can win this by running them ragged but I still don't have faith that our skills will stand up to the pressure they'll put on us. As long as we can keep it close I'll be happy.

 

[saintkildaman]

Drop Gresham for Goddard.

Gilbert goes through the middle.
Dempster vs Waite
Fisher vs Petrie
Goddard vs Brown
Geary on Nahas
Webster on Boomer
Weller follows Wells

 

[Cornish]

My thoughts on our changes after a few days to contemplate. I am usually wrong although i did fluke last week.

Gresh - Lonie dominated in the VFL deserves a recall
Meatball - Goddard still not sure about Goddard about this one, but we need a big man back, could be a break out game or it could be a back to the magoos for Goddard.

Will probably change my mind in an hour.

Looking forward to this game, give last weeks effort with us, and we are in it up to our ears.

 

[TheLonieRanger]

lonie was good in the twos but the only change I can see is minch out for goddard or lee... if we don't want to go taller minch or gresh could come out for lonie but I hope not, lonie will be a 200 game player, but having to really work for his spot will do wonders. Gresh needs a game or two more before we should drop him, it will do him wonders getting a few more AFL games into him for when he goes back to the magoos, and minch will tear it up for sandy if he goes back, he's not going to learn too much from playing in the twos again, afl games is what he needs.

 

[Loyal Sainter]

I reckon Lonie will come in for Minchington. Not sure about Webster's thumb injury he sustained in the Dee's game, so possibly Lee or Robbo (if he's back as the club may want him to play a game in the twos first) could come back in if Webster is out.

I'm thinking an upset could be on the cards. If we play our way and don't let them control the game I reckon we could be in with a sniff. Looking forward to this game, hope it's a good one!!

 

[IllBeTheJudge]

If a player hasn't done enough they go back. I think Jade got 8 possessions.

I don't understand your logic that playing 1 game even if not up to standard has no benefit and therefor warrants another. I don't get gifting players games if they haven't done enough. Players who don't produce can develop in the VFL. AFL is for players who can and are producing not players who have potential.

I would be a little surprised if Gresham went back, Richo had a bit of praise for him and his defensive effort after the Dees game. Obviously those sorts of efforts don't always show up in the stats. Still, you'd think if Paddy was good to return, he will, so interesting discussion for the selection committee ahead.

 

[The Punter]

It's no great disaster if a first or second year player plays for Sandringham.

It worked for Acres, will work for Lonie, and will probably work for McCartin.

 

[FQFjt]

Two options:

Without Lee/Goddard
Gilbert/Webster — Waite
Dempster — Petrie
Fisher — Brown

With Lee/Goddard
Dempster — Waite
Fisher — Petrie
Goddard/Lee — Brown

I think with option two we have the potential to win all three of those match-ups. I'm not so sure about option one.

 

[plugger66]

Based on meltdowns here and changes before the games I hope Acres, Membery and Ross are dropped. Unfortunately I think the only possible change is Minch for Lonie.

 

[aussierulesrules]

It's no great disaster if a first or second year player plays for Sandringham.

It worked for Acres, will work for Lonie, and will probably work for McCartin.

Ditto Gresham, who at this stage has not done enough to keep his spot, IMO, especially as an in-form Lonie (which he hopefully is after the weekend and a bit of a necessary wake-up call) is a pretty decent upgrade on him in so many ways at this stage (eg. defensive pressure, ability to get disposals and kick goals and possibly most importantly, spend more time on the ground- Gresh has played between 63 and 67% in his 3 games, whereas Lonie has had highs of 87% and 85%).

We made what I believe was a mistake in not dropping him after he was largely unsighted for most of round 1 (and I thought a couple of his mistakes really hurt us early the following week v WB) and I hope we don't make that mistake again this time around. If we're to make any unforced changes, he is the one who needs to be first to go, IMO, after getting just 8 disposals on the weekend and just 2 in the 2nd half. Lonie for him is a bit of a no-brainer, as far as I'm concerned, if we believe he's ready to return and want to give ourselves our best chance of winning what looms as a much more difficult game than last week's was.

The reason I'd leave Gresh out before Minchington is that Minch at least has some credits in the bank after being good against Collingwood and Hawthorn and also because he had 10 disposals in the 2nd half on the weekend, compared to Jade's 2 (also had 19 pressure acts to Jade's 12 and gives us a genuine centre-square rotation option). That 2nd half may be a sign that he is ready to return to his better form of a few weeks ago and in his case it's getting to be a "now or never" sort of time, so I think we owe it to ourselves and to him to give him one last shot at it this week, before what may be an extended, if not permanent period at Sandy, if we were to drop him.

There's no rush with Gresh, but with Minch, he possibly needs to make it now, if he's ever to get that confidence that he belongs at AFL level. If we leave it much longer he may end up with too many ahead of him who play similar roles (eg. Sinclair, Lonie, Gresh and Eli), so I'd give him every opportunity now, as the more quality depth we have there, the better. One more poor game and he'd be out fo sho though, if he does stay in.

That said, if we want to make two unforced changes, to bring in say Lonie and a Roberton/McCartin/Goddard/Lee, for extra height, then Minch almost certainly goes out as well.

 

[The Punter]

I think we need Goddard in. And with Lonie, it is a question of does his performance on the weekend put him in front of someone who played v Melbourne last week in a very good win. And I don't know the answer to that, but we need to be taller in defence the next two weeks.

 

[Armoooo]

Only two players in doubt of losing their spot for mine are Gresh and Minch.

Lonie is a chance for an instant recall but as others have said, it wont hurt his development to need to really force his way back into the side.

Gresh showed a bit more on the weekend then he has previously but I still don't think he's ready just yet, after seeing how Acres responded to a couple of omissions should help him stay motivated if he gets the axe again.

I would like to see a tall defender come in for him, whether that's Lee or Goddard I'm not particularly fussed, just need an extra big body down back (if Roberton is fit he will take this spot).

tl;dr edition:
Out: Gresham
In: (Lee/Goddard/Roberton)

 

[Saintbloke]

We need a bit more height down back, so Lee should come in- shouldn't have been dropped. Not totally convinced about Webster in the backline- makes some poor decisions, and not great in one-on-ones, but I doubt he will lose his spot. Minch probably just needs to do a bit more during the game and may go out. Lonie might lose out another week, as we need stronger bodies against Norf.

Out: Minch
In: Lee

 

[cooperrules]

no changes no melts yesaaaaaa.

 

[puppy_dog7]

I don't get everyone's fascination with Lee. Don't get me wrong he's been playing well and I hope he can make it. But I just don't think he'll ever really be quite good enough.. He has great kicking skills, but apart from that I can't see him beating any of Brown, Petrie or Waite 1 on 1.. He is good at intercepting but IHe just doesn't look good defensively.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I don't get everyone's fascination with Lee. Don't get me wrong he's been playing well and I hope he can make it. But I just don't think he'll ever really be quite good enough.. He has great kicking skills, but apart from that I can't see him beating any of Brown, Petrie or Waite 1 on 1.. He is good at intercepting but IHe just doesn't look good defensively.

If they were both in peak form then I think it's safe to say that Goddard would be the more suitable match-up with the likes of Brown or Petrie in particular, given his extra height and strength, but Lee was actually generally good and very competitive when in body-on-body type contests with the likes of Patton or Cameron against GWS and Hawthorn.

It was generally only when he got a bit too far out in front of them in the both games and they got him out the back, or if he had to chase the ultra-mobile and smart Cameron around on a long and winding lead that whoever Lee was playing on took a mark, or kicked a goal. I'm not sure either of those types of things are as likely to happen against the likes of Waite, Brown and Petrie, who I think are more likely to lead up to the ball than try to duck out the back, or beat you with pure speed and mobility.

Gilbert is just as likely to be able to match up on them as Lee is though and given that he played down back all last week, I imagine they'll be much more likely to go with him there again than to bring Lee in.

In order, I think the most likely backline inclusions are Roberton>Goddard>Lee.

 

[TheBalls]

I'm looking forward to this game, always good to test ourselves against the ladder leaders. North proved on Friday they have the ability to play clean or dirty, this will obviously be a really tough game.

If we can keep this within 5 goals and have a solid performance I'll be happy. I think we have the players and game plan to challenge North (if we play very well) but also can see how damaging they have been and we can't match their big blokes 1 on 1 so we need to rebound well (like we did against Melbourne). I was really impressed with our ability to get the ball down inside our own 50 and get it out cleanly last week. We can actually turn North attacks against them if we do this well as I think we have them for pace through the middle.

Unfortunately unlike the Demons, they have 3 solid tall targets who can kick goals. I'll be much more confident going against a team like this next year with Carlisle and Goddard (hopefully) in our defensive line up. As I said, rebound well, win the battles in the midfield and work even harder than we did last week and we're a chance.

Can we make a pact?:

- If we win, this doesn't make us premiership contenders
- If we lose (even if we lose heavily), let's not act like Richmond supporters (melts), it's apparently really hard to get a psychologist appointment in the inner city at the moment.

 

[the big lebowski]

With Thomas out, and Turner out, and Anderson and Garner, it will be interesting to see how we structure up. Wood is a certainty to come in, a 192 cm KPF/Winger that runs all day. Kicked 4 and had 23 last week. Hasn't been renowned for his defensive acts, so it is exploitable. One would assume Nahas comes in for the other missing small forward. We'll still have Ziebell, Harvey, Wells and Higgins rotate through the forward line, so you will have your hands full.

If its going to be a shootout i think you should bring Mcartin back in. Spud is a perfect matchup for Membrey. And Thompson and Tarrant would take Roo and Bruce (when Rooey plays forward), but we would have to bring Hansen back in (maybe for Wright who has the sore ankle) and im not sure how well that would work.

Jacobs to tag. Everyone else head to head in the midfield.

 

[Nutsngum]

I don't get everyone's fascination with Lee. Don't get me wrong he's been playing well and I hope he can make it. But I just don't think he'll ever really be quite good enough.. He has great kicking skills, but apart from that I can't see him beating any of Brown, Petrie or Waite 1 on 1.. He is good at intercepting but IHe just doesn't look good defensively.

Because he is an actually good bloke who has some elite talents and has worked his ass off over a number of years attempting to forge an AFL career. Everyone is quite aware he may never quite make it as sometimes the sum isnt as great as the parts but he IS a potential feel good story that we all want to see succeed.

In addition he is the type of player we need to replace Fisher and Dempster over the next few years and developing that talent from within is far better then spending draft picks on it.

 

[stfan]

Gresh - Lonie dominated in the VFL deserves a recall
.

Personally I would give Lonie a brace of games at Sandy in the midfield so that he can develop and hone his game by beuing in traffic for most of the game.

As a very young player, playing as a small forward in the AFL is a hard gig, and is hard to develop your game.

 

[aussierulesrules]

If we can keep this within 5 goals and have a solid performance I'll be happy.

I won't be happy to keep it under 5 goals unless North just play a blinder. I rate North and have for a couple of years, but they have one of the lowest percentages of all the top 8 sides because they haven't been smashing teams, so if we bring our game and don't fall away in the last quarter, then I don't see why we won't be in the game up to our necks.

Melbourne almost beat them a few weeks ago and last week we wiped the floor with them, two weeks earlier we almost beat Hawthorn in Launceston and last week the greatly weakened WB (without Johannisen, Murphy, Suckling and Boyd- who at a minimum gives their forward line structure, frees up Stringer and gives them a quality 2nd ruck option), didn't lose by much to North (16 points), despite the fact they apparently butchered the ball all game long and missed some sitter shots for goal, including late in the game. It sounds like they weren't a patch on the Bulldogs of earlier in the year (in particular badly missing the genuinely elite kicking of JJ, Murph and Suckling and the run of the former two) and as such, if it was us playing them, and we played like we did against Melbourne, I reckon we could have easily enough beaten them as well.

Yes we could be exposed for height in defence, but WB didn't have many goals kicked on them last week and they didn't exactly have significantly better tall backline stocks than we will (Fletcher Roberts at 196cm, Marcus Adams at 193cm (26 AFL games between them) and Dale Morris at 190cm- not sure where Roughead played, although I see he had 11 hitouts, so perhaps forward/ruck). They also didn't have anyone remotely like Hickey in the ruck to go up against Goldstein (and had 15 less hitouts) and from what I hear, they had "no forward line", which we hopefully will.

That game was also heavily publicised and built up as the top-of-the-table clash, so they might have mentally primed themselves for it. If so, it may mean they'll drop off a bit this week in that regard and maybe even get a bit comfortable with themselves and start thinking about how they could be 9-0 if they win this game (as is being discussed on the North board on here). On the flip-side, it's Drew's 300th, so we could have done without that!

If we bring our pressure game and don't butcher the ball or our shots for goal too much, then I see this as a totally winnable game. We can do this. North aren't unbeatable.

 

[FlyingSledghamer]

Two options:

Without Lee/Goddard
Gilbert/Webster — Waite
Dempster — Petrie
Fisher — Brown

With Lee/Goddard
Dempster — Waite
Fisher — Petrie
Goddard/Lee — Brown

I think with option two we have the potential to win all three of those match-ups. I'm not so sure about option one.

Can we just bring in Delany to knee him in the balls in the first quater. Cause thats about the only chance to stop Waite.

 

[Tom12]

Call me overly optimistic - but there's no reason why we can't get the W here.
We play Etihad generally really well, and North will surely have an off day at some point in the next month.
The onus lies on us to bring 4 quarters of pressure, and quality ball movement is a must.

We will struggle to contain the tall forwards that have been serving NM so well this year, but when we get our chances to rebound and go forward - if we take them and back it up with the same pressure from the weekend - we'll be right in this.