Team Mgmt. Talk about the makeup of our list - midfield balance, height profile, endurance runners

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This is how I want our list to look at the end of the year.

Out
Martin Gleeson, David Zaharakis, Tom Cutler,
Patrick Ambrose, Lachlan Johnson, Dylan Clarke, Andrew Phillips(demoted), Irving Mosquito(Demoted)

Senior List
1. Andrew McGrath
2. Sam Draper
3. Darcy Parish
4. Kyle Langford
5. Devon Smith
6. Jye Caldwell
7. Zach Merrett
8. Dylan Shiel
9. Aaron Francis
10. Nik Cox
11. Jordan Ridley
12. Jayden Laverde
13. Archie Perkins
14. James Stewart
15. Michael Hurley
16. Nick Hind
17. Peter Wright
18. Dyson Heppell
19. Harrison Jones
20. Nick Bryan
21. Jake Stringer
22. Cale Hooker
23. Mason Redman
24. Josh Eyre
25. Brandon Zerk-Thatcher
26. Zach Reid
27. Brayden Ham
28. Ned Cahill
29. Will Snelling
30. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwutti
31. Cody Brand



Rookie List
1. Sam Durham
2. Alec Waterman
3. Kaine Baldwin
4. Irving Mosquito
5. Andrew Phillips
6. ??

Category B
1. Tom Hird
2. Cian McBridge
 
kelvin_sheedy said:
Interesting times going forward.

Hooker - finished
Hurley - finished ( may get another year )
Ambrose - finished ( may go around again bar any more setbacks )
Zaka - finished
Gleeson - done
Cutler - done
Phillips - may get another year as backup until Bryan is ready
Cahill - done
Mosquito - looks he's done and dusted
Clarke - done, may be lucky there's no depth so maybe gets another year.
BZT - done, may get another year as depth but with Reid coming on then will be lucky.
Johnson - hasn't shown anything so may be lucky.
Smith - depth at best.

We could make up to 10 changes if we are bold and brave. If we could add 2 ready made players with a host of kids it's pretty feasible to make a big cull.
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No doubt there are 10 to 14 spots that will need to change. Midfield depth on the list is non-existent.

However, and in reality, things are stable enough to stagger that change over 2 seasons to take advantage of opportunities that might arise.

The commentary surrounding rebuilds, etc is always too dramatic and too absolute. If for example, we have our eye on a spread of midsand possibly a quick half back or 2, knowing the Daveys will likely be good enough to be drafted as small forward/running half backs at the end of 2022, we very quickly arrive at the point that a free agent or 2 make a lot of sense to add depth (even if they are not stars).

Hewett has been discussed quite a bit. How good would it be to have him on the list right now even paying him overs before we are required to shell out for the likes of Jones, Bryan, Draper, Cox, Reid and Perkins? Seb Ross or even Mitch Wallis, some players who add some much needed depth to allow the rest of the list to develop.

A couple of years of players as good as Isaac Smith or Higgins?
 
Looking at all of the uncontracted guys, here’s how I see movement at end of year:
Senior list:
Ambrose - delist
Cutler - delist
Johnson - delist
Mosquito - delist :'(
Zaharakis - delist
Cahill - 1 year which would be lucky
Guelfi ‐ 2 years
Hooker - 1 year - kpf replacements aren't there yet
Laverde - 2 years - told you all to believe
Parish - 100 years
Phillips - 1 year - most likely last
Stringer - 3/4 years
Zerk-Thatcher - 1 year - don't think he's a long term prospect for us

Rookie A
Gleeson - delist
Clarke - delist
Mcquillan - delist obviously
Waterman - 1 year
Baldwin - 1 year
Durham - 1 year

Rookie B
McBride - 1 year
Hird - delist or 1 more

Assuming Hurley plays out the final year of his contract, by my count we would have the following list spots:
Senior = 37 - 5 + 1 = 33 list spot
Rookie A = 5 + 2 - 4 = 3 list spots
Which sees us take 5 + 1 ± 1 or 4 + 2 ± 1, which feels about right to me. Or 1 more if Hurley retires.

We'll primarily need midfielders, a small forward and a small back.

Cutting Cutler, Zaka and Clarke means our midfield depth moves from sweet FA to non existent. We’d be looking for a cheap gem or 2, such as another cheap trade or a DFA in the midfield. But could easily see the Don's giving Zaka 1 more year for this reason.

I’d expect us to spend a future pick to get another pick in the first 2 rounds of the ND as well.
 

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Why demote Phillips? He’s almost certainly going to be needed as injury cover and I’d be doing everything possible to ensure he doesn’t feel like he’s being pushed to the outer.
 
kelvin_sheedy said:
Trouble is we may end up like Carlton - some decent players but not enough depth of quality. Don't get fooled by some of our starting 22 that are just role players.

Point is.. we still have a lot of work to do and a lot of turnover to go in the next year or so. Deep cuts is what we need. Some will get lucky and get that extra year but we need to be a bit ruthless.. there's less point in keeping list cloggers around than having a swing an extra kid or two.
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Exactly

Unpopular opinion; David Zaharakis, Marty Gleeson and Andrew Phillips are depth.

Tom Cutler, Dylan Clarke and Patty Ambrose are now list cloggers

The hard decisions should be pretty self explanatory for a man like Dodoro you’d hope


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Old Campaigner said:
Why demote Phillips? He’s almost certainly going to be needed as injury cover and I’d be doing everything possible to ensure he doesn’t feel like he’s being pushed to the outer.
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Yep, only reason would be confidence in Bryan to play AFL if Sam misses

Even then, the ruck department looks increasingly bare


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Yoda_ said:
Yep, only reason would be confidence in Bryan to play AFL if Sam misses

Even then, the ruck department looks increasingly bare


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Click to expand...
Yeah, I hope we draft another ruck this year in addition to giving Phillips a 2 year contract if he wants it.
 
I'd be trading our first with say the Tigers or Lions to bank a 2nd rounder for next year seeing we have 2 x Davey twins for 2022 draft
As in our pick 7-10 for 18 and a 2022 2nd

Hurls deserves the chance to get his body right unless he pulls the pin now
Hooksy and Zaka goners
Gotta keep Jakey and DP3

Cutler, Phillips and BZT add depth and happy to rookie them
Waterboy, McBride, Baldwin and Bryan yes.

So my only outs would be Hooksy, Zaka, Mozzie (if his heart isn't in it), Clarke, Johnno's kid, Gleeson and Ambrose

If Franga wants to go to Adelaide (understandable pretty close family) swap for a player (Jake Kelly)

TARGETS:
Dev Robertson (Lions) this kid is a bull and would flourish with more midfield time
Darcy Tucker (Freo)
Jeremy Sharp (Suns) is always in the best for the SUNS VFL - runs both ways long kick smart player IDK HTF he isn't getting a game at Senior level
 
brutus76 said:
I'd be trading our first with say the Tigers or Lions to bank a 2nd rounder for next year seeing we have 2 x Davey twins for 2022 draft
As in our pick 7-10 for 18 and a 2022 2nd

Hurls deserves the chance to get his body right unless he pulls the pin now
Hooksy and Zaka goners
Gotta keep Jakey and DP3

Cutler, Phillips and BZT add depth and happy to rookie them
Waterboy, McBride, Baldwin and Bryan yes.

So my only outs would be Hooksy, Zaka, Mozzie (if his heart isn't in it), Clarke, Johnno's kid, Gleeson and Ambrose

If Franga wants to go to Adelaide (understandable pretty close family) swap for a player (Jake Kelly)

TARGETS:
Dev Robertson (Lions) this kid is a bull and would flourish with more midfield time
Darcy Tucker (Freo)
Jeremy Sharp (Suns) is always in the best for the SUNS VFL - runs both ways long kick smart player IDK HTF he isn't getting a game at Senior level
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I would be giving Hooker another year. No need to rush Baldwin or Eyre, it seems to work well with Jones and Wright, at worst he’s excellent depth should we climb the ladder quickly.
 
Bipolarbear said:
I do not get this, I agree with the others though.
Why does nobody rate Cahill?
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Doesn’t seem to be able to compete in a contest and considering that he doesn’t have the pace of someone like Ham it’s hard to see what he’ll bring to AFL.

I think we did him no favours wasting his preseason training as HBF though. He might still be worth giving another year to if he can get a bit stronger he’ll be a very complete player.
 
Ambrosia said:
Doesn’t seem to be able to compete in a contest and considering that he doesn’t have the pace of someone like Ham it’s hard to see what he’ll bring to AFL.

I think we did him no favours wasting his preseason training as HBF though. He might still be worth giving another year to if he can get a bit stronger he’ll be a very complete player.
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I reckon he's a FP, just plonk him there and watch him go. He's so instinctive.
 
I'm at this point:

3+ years: Nick Hind? (Unknown contract status, footywire says this year), Darcy Parish (I hope), Jake Stringer
2 years: Jayden Laverde, Matt Guelfi
1 year: Andrew Phillips (possible rookie list candidate), Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Cian McBride, Kaine Baldwin, Ned Cahill, Tom Hird, Sam Durham

Retire: Cale Hooker, David Zaharakis,
Delist: Dylan Clarke, Irving Mosquito, Lachlan Johnson, Martin Gleeson, Patrick Ambrose, Tom Cutler (might be lucky if Guelfi requests a trade home)

If list spots remain the same that's 7 players we need, with 3 Cat A rookies and 2 Cat B rookies. I'd have a minimal trade effort and focus on the draft, but a couple of players appeal to me:

1. Sign George Hewett/Seb Ross via FA
2. Future third round for Jack Bytel (more hope than think for this one)

Draft:

Pick 9: Josh Goater (190 cm/79 kg inside midfielder, Calder Cannons)
Pick 46: Inside midfielder
Pick 51: Small Defender
Pick 82: Nyawi Moore* (183/77 small forward, Bendigo Pioneers)
Pick 100: Tex Wanganeen* (175/73 small forward, Oakleigh Chargers)

*If a bid comes in, otherwise let them through to the RD where we take them automatically

Which leaves us with:

Defenders:

Key Defenders: James Stewart (fwd), Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Zach Reid, Cody Brand, Cian McBride (fwd)
Medium Defenders: Aaron Francis, Jordan Ridley, Jayden Laverde, Dyson Heppell (mid)
Small Defenders: Nick Hind, Mason Redman, Tom Hird, Pick 51

Midfielders:

Inside Midfielders: Andrew McGrath (def), Darcy Parish (fwd), Jye Caldwell (fwd), Dylan Shiel, Archie Perkins (fwd), George Hewett (def), Jack Bytel, Josh Goater, Pick 46
Outside Midfielders: Kyle Langford (fwd), Zach Merrett, Nik Cox (fwd/def), Brayden Ham (fwd), Matt Guelfi (def/fwd), Sam Durham (def)
Rucks: Sam Draper, Nick Bryan (fwd), Andrew Phillips

Forwards:

Key Forwards: Michael Hurley (def), Peter Wright (ruck), Harrison Jones, Josh Eyre (def), Kaine Baldwin
Medium Forwards: Jake Stringer (mid), Alec Waterman (mid)
Small Forwards: Devon Smith (mid), Ned Cahill (mid), Will Snelling (mid), Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Nyawi Moore, Tex Wanganeen

Think with another pre-season under his belt Perkins might be able to transition further into the midfield. Eyre and McBride are pretty interchangeable for the reserves I think, and if Bryan is playing seniors they're probably the chop out ruck when McLarty or Phillips isn't playing.
 

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eth-dog 95% sure we got Hind on a 2 year deal. I’m not sure if it’s a thing in the AFL but maybe we should renegotiate and extend Hind because obviously he is out performing his contract significantly and as a mature age player he is going to want to get paid on his next contract.
 
Ambrosia said:
eth-dog 95% sure we got Hind on a 2 year deal. I’m not sure if it’s a thing in the AFL but maybe we should renegotiate and extend Hind because obviously he is out performing his contract significantly and as a mature age player he is going to want to get paid on his next contract.
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Yeah Hind was 2 years, contract length was one of the reasons he wanted out of the Saints.
 
Old Campaigner said:
Yeah Hind was 2 years, contract length was one of the reasons he wanted out of the Saints.
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Fair enough, wasn't sure. I'd still give him 3 years after this contract
 
I’d like us to enquire about Sam Weideman. Think he’s got too much going for him not to make it at the very least I expect he’d be a great CHB if he didn’t work out as a forward
 
So, the following are still OOC:

3+ years: Jake Stringer
2 years: Jayden Laverde, Matt Guelfi
1 year: Andrew Phillips, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Cian McBride, Kaine Baldwin, Ned Cahill, Tom Hird

Delist: Irving Mosquito, Lachlan Johnson, Dylan Clarke, Tom Cutler, Martin Gleeson
Retire: Cale Hooker, David Zaharakis, Patrick Ambrose

That's what I think happens. Not that I think cutting our mature depth is a great idea. Depends on who we trade in as well
 
For something a bit different and to demonstrate a bugbear of mine I thought it would be interesting to look at the age profile of the current list in 2 years time (2023 season). The reason I think this is a good way to examine the list is that I believe good list management should be proactive in identifying (where possible) future needs and deficiencies as much as meeting current needs and deficiencies.

It makes sense when you think about it - if you fail to have AFL standard players ready to step up as the older generation reach the end of their careers you then either need to trade someone in to fill the hole ASAP (and pay a premium for the convinience) or draft players and wait a few years for them to develop enough to fill the void.

A case in point would be our ruck stocks in recent years. Ryder requested a trade and it was clear Bellchambers couldn't keep going forever yet we waited until he was very much on his last legs before drafting Draper. Yes, other attempts were made - Thurlow, Lavender and Nyuon were drafted, Leuenberger and Clarke were traded but it's hard to see rookie draft picks as anything other than a gamble while Clarke and Leuenberger did not provide a long term solution. It really wasn't until Bryan was drafted in the second round that what I would consider a serious attempt at addressing the issue happened (Draper could've easily joined the long line of rookie list busts, especially after his ACL).

Another example would be our failure to find a big bodied midfielder to fill the void Watson left, something I'm not sure we've properly addressed to this day.

Our current group of players as it stands is as follows, each players' age in 2023 is listed. I have bolded the ones where there is reason to think they may not be on the list in 2023 or where it is likely they have regressed from being regulars in the best 22 to depth (similar to how Zaharakis is more of a stopgap these days).

Andrew McGrath 24
Sam Draper 24
Darcy Parish 25
Kyle Langford 26
Devon Smith 29
- I think this is pretty obvious, his performances have declined and his kicking is getting worse. He will still be on the list as he is contracted however I think unless our list management is genuinely awful he will be depth.
Jye Caldwell 22
- Good player but I can't help thinking that with his history of soft tissue injuries he is probably touch and go to play regular games from this point. He will still be on the list as he is contracted to 2024 and while some players have overcome recurring infuries most do not and I don't think it is sensible to include him in future list management calculations. If he makes it it's a bonus.
Zach Merrett 27
Martin Gleeson 28
- Handy player as we saw last night, albeit against a shithouse opposition. It could be argued either way whether he stays or goes but I don't think he's a regular in the best 22 unless there's a lot of injuries and I don't really see the point in keeping someone in that situation on the list.
Dylan Shiel 30
- Will still be on the list but at 30 his best years will be behind him and I doubt his breakaway speed which is his real weapon and point of difference will be a factor. It may take a couple of bites at the cherry to find a player of his standard to start filling the void so I would be more at ease if that process started now.
Aaron Francis 25
- I can't help thinking he'll request a trade to SA. I don't think we get much back for him either because he hasn't really lived up to his potential.
David Zaharakis 33
- Obviously gone, probably at the end of 2021
Tom Cutler 28
- Only gets games due to injuries and I think to improve as a side our depth needs to be better than this. I think he gets delisted either this year or next.
Nik Cox 21
Jordan Ridley 24
Jayden Laverde 27
Archie Perkins 21
James Stewart 29
- Kind of hard to get a feel for. I think he's still on this list in 2023 but probably (hopefully) has become depth rather than our first choice KPD.
Michael Hurley 32
- Apparently still hasn't started running properly and I would be surprised if a player his age can get back to the standard required to be a regular in the senior team. I think he retires at the end of 2022.
Nick Hind 28
Peter Wright 26
Dyson Heppell 30
- Has looked good in defence but I think by 30 he'll be very much worse for wear.
Irving Mosquito 22
- I get the feeling most people here agree it's unlikely he'll be back.
Harrison Jones 22
Nick Bryan 21
Jake Stringer 28
Cale Hooker 34
- Shouldn't play next year. Early in the season I thought he would go around again but as the season has gone on he's been getting slower.
Mason Redman 25
Ned Cahill 22
- I don't think he's really shown enough for anyone to have any real expectation he'll be on the list in 2 years time. I think it's just a question of whether this year or next is his last.
Patrick Ambrose 31
- Injury prone, I don't think he plays beyond this year.
Brandon Zerk-Thatcher 24
- I think he is pretty close to as good as he is ever going to be, which isn't too bad but not good enough to get regular games. In an ideal world he is replaced as depth by Brand/Eyre (if the switch to defence is permanent) or Stewart.
Zach Reid 21
Josh Eyre 20
Brayden Ham 23
- He shows some signs but I think when you're his size you need a real weapon or point of difference and I'm not sure he has that. Contracted to next year but for us to improve our depth needs to be better than this.
Andrew Phillips 31
- Maybe he plays past 30, maybe he doesn't. He's currently reasonablly injury prone and I don't think that is something that gets better with age.
Matt Guelfi 25
- I don't really know what happens from here. Handy enough but at the end of the day he's in and out of a mediocre side with a significant injury list and I don't think many players are held onto for long in that situation.
Lachlan Johnson 21
- By all reports he's not doing well in the VFL and is no chance of making it into the senior side.
Dylan Clarke 24
- Our one attempt at a big bodied mid since Watson. I think if after 5 years in the system and your kicking is still a liability your days are probably numbered. Already demoted to the rookie list and when turnovers are already a major reason we get scored against so heavily so he's probably not a priority to re-sign.
Cody Brand 20
Will Snelling 25
Cian McBride 22
- Kicked a bunch of goals in the VFL but it's still a coin toss with delisting or homesickness just as likely as him making it.
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti 30
- Seems kinda indestructible but I think by the time he's 30 he'll be starting to slow down a lot.
Alec Waterman 26
- I don't really see it here. His set shot goal kicking is a real weapon but he doesn't take enough marks within range for it to be a factor. He's one who is getting regular games but probably needs to be pushed out of the side by someone if we are to take the next step as a side.
Tom Hird 22
- People keep saying they see something in him, I'm not convinced and on the balance of probability I don't think he makes it.
Sam Durham 21
Kaine Baldwin 20

That ends up being 24 of 45 players who I anticipate will probably be taking a backwards step - either from best 22 to depth, or depth to delisted - in the space of a couple of years.

Small forwards are a big issue with Smith (hopefully) and Walla (probably) no longer commanding a spot in the senior side. I don't think we need to set out to trade or target this position in the draft as it sounds like we have some FS/NGA small forwards in the nest year or so.

The midfield definitely needs attention, we still haven't found a big bodied midfielder and with an aging Shiel seemingly the only player who's name isn't Darcy Parish or Zac Merrett who can win clearances I think a clearance winning midfielder should be high on our priority list. As a bonus, this would allow Stringer to spend less time in the midfield and more time up forward where I think he is a more dangerous player. As mentioned, I think Caldwell getting over his injuries should be seen as a bonus rather than an expectation. I would like us to look a little later inthe draft for a blue collar type who is prepared to do the team first stuff as well.

A replacement for Heppell should be high on the list too, it wouldn't hurt to have a crack with a couple of later picks this year but the chances of finding a player of Heppell's quality outside of the first round are pretty remote so I would be more comfortable if we use our first round pick in 2022 to target his successor. Hind and Heppell set up a lot of our plays so I don't think it is worth leaving this to chance, although as Hind and Saad (when we got him from GCS) proved, you can definitely find useful players cheap during trade week.

While it's not a position I think should be filled with a high pick or an expensive trade we should definitely get another ruck on the list to develop. We're OK for depth currently but if Phillips hangs up the boots we're pretty exposed should one of them go down with an injury.

The final critical need I see is the wing as I don't think a finals bound side has players like Ham in the best 22. It may be the case that recruiting additional midfielders pushes Langford into this role so it probably isn't critical enough to justify using a first round pick but it is something we need to keep in mind.

I don't think other positions are as critical as we either have depth or have a number of players in development to fill those roles who for the time being can be supplemented with later draft selections or cheap trades. One would hope we are assessing our stocks in these positions regularly between now and 2023 and change priorities if necessary. A lot of the quality on our list will be coming into their prime around 2023 so if there's no other pressing needs this would be the time to recruit a marquee player and search for some lesser lights to top up our depth for a big crack at the top 4.

Obviously peering this far into the crystal ball is fraught with uncertainty - players can suffer season ending injuries or request trades, other times a player we all regard as depth can make an unexpected step up and become a key part of the best 22. The main point of the exercise is to see how list management is a multi year, layered process and who we recruit now has long lasting impacts. Get it wrong and it can take years to turn it around which runs a very real risk of wasting the successful drafting of previous years.
 
Old Campaigner said:
For something a bit different and to demonstrate a bugbear of mine I thought it would be interesting to look at the age profile of the current list in 2 years time (2023 season). The reason I think this is a good way to examine the list is that I believe good list management should be proactive in identifying (where possible) future needs and deficiencies as much as meeting current needs and deficiencies.

It makes sense when you think about it - if you fail to have AFL standard players ready to step up as the older generation reach the end of their careers you then either need to trade someone in to fill the hole ASAP (and pay a premium for the convinience) or draft players and wait a few years for them to develop enough to fill the void.

A case in point would be our ruck stocks in recent years. Ryder requested a trade and it was clear Bellchambers couldn't keep going forever yet we waited until he was very much on his last legs before drafting Draper. Yes, other attempts were made - Thurlow, Lavender and Nyuon were drafted, Leuenberger and Clarke were traded but it's hard to see rookie draft picks as anything other than a gamble while Clarke and Leuenberger did not provide a long term solution. It really wasn't until Bryan was drafted in the second round that what I would consider a serious attempt at addressing the issue happened (Draper could've easily joined the long line of rookie list busts, especially after his ACL).

Another example would be our failure to find a big bodied midfielder to fill the void Watson left, something I'm not sure we've properly addressed to this day.

Our current group of players as it stands is as follows, each players' age in 2023 is listed. I have bolded the ones where there is reason to think they may not be on the list in 2023 or where it is likely they have regressed from being regulars in the best 22 to depth (similar to how Zaharakis is more of a stopgap these days).

Andrew McGrath 24
Sam Draper 24
Darcy Parish 25
Kyle Langford 26
Devon Smith 29
- I think this is pretty obvious, his performances have declined and his kicking is getting worse. He will still be on the list as he is contracted however I think unless our list management is genuinely awful he will be depth.
Jye Caldwell 22
- Good player but I can't help thinking that with his history of soft tissue injuries he is probably touch and go to play regular games from this point. He will still be on the list as he is contracted to 2024 and while some players have overcome recurring infuries most do not and I don't think it is sensible to include him in future list management calculations. If he makes it it's a bonus.
Zach Merrett 27
Martin Gleeson 28
- Handy player as we saw last night, albeit against a shithouse opposition. It could be argued either way whether he stays or goes but I don't think he's a regular in the best 22 unless there's a lot of injuries and I don't really see the point in keeping someone in that situation on the list.
Dylan Shiel 30
- Will still be on the list but at 30 his best years will be behind him and I doubt his breakaway speed which is his real weapon and point of difference will be a factor. It may take a couple of bites at the cherry to find a player of his standard to start filling the void so I would be more at ease if that process started now.
Aaron Francis 25
- I can't help thinking he'll request a trade to SA. I don't think we get much back for him either because he hasn't really lived up to his potential.
David Zaharakis 33
- Obviously gone, probably at the end of 2021
Tom Cutler 28
- Only gets games due to injuries and I think to improve as a side our depth needs to be better than this. I think he gets delisted either this year or next.
Nik Cox 21
Jordan Ridley 24
Jayden Laverde 27
Archie Perkins 21
James Stewart 29
- Kind of hard to get a feel for. I think he's still on this list in 2023 but probably (hopefully) has become depth rather than our first choice KPD.
Michael Hurley 32
- Apparently still hasn't started running properly and I would be surprised if a player his age can get back to the standard required to be a regular in the senior team. I think he retires at the end of 2022.
Nick Hind 28
Peter Wright 26
Dyson Heppell 30
- Has looked good in defence but I think by 30 he'll be very much worse for wear.
Irving Mosquito 22
- I get the feeling most people here agree it's unlikely he'll be back.
Harrison Jones 22
Nick Bryan 21
Jake Stringer 28
Cale Hooker 34
- Shouldn't play next year. Early in the season I thought he would go around again but as the season has gone on he's been getting slower.
Mason Redman 25
Ned Cahill 22
- I don't think he's really shown enough for anyone to have any real expectation he'll be on the list in 2 years time. I think it's just a question of whether this year or next is his last.
Patrick Ambrose 31
- Injury prone, I don't think he plays beyond this year.
Brandon Zerk-Thatcher 24
- I think he is pretty close to as good as he is ever going to be, which isn't too bad but not good enough to get regular games. In an ideal world he is replaced as depth by Brand/Eyre (if the switch to defence is permanent) or Stewart.
Zach Reid 21
Josh Eyre 20
Brayden Ham 23
- He shows some signs but I think when you're his size you need a real weapon or point of difference and I'm not sure he has that. Contracted to next year but for us to improve our depth needs to be better than this.
Andrew Phillips 31
- Maybe he plays past 30, maybe he doesn't. He's currently reasonablly injury prone and I don't think that is something that gets better with age.
Matt Guelfi 25
- I don't really know what happens from here. Handy enough but at the end of the day he's in and out of a mediocre side with a significant injury list and I don't think many players are held onto for long in that situation.
Lachlan Johnson 21
- By all reports he's not doing well in the VFL and is no chance of making it into the senior side.
Dylan Clarke 24
- Our one attempt at a big bodied mid since Watson. I think if after 5 years in the system and your kicking is still a liability your days are probably numbered. Already demoted to the rookie list and when turnovers are already a major reason we get scored against so heavily so he's probably not a priority to re-sign.
Cody Brand 20
Will Snelling 25
Cian McBride 22
- Kicked a bunch of goals in the VFL but it's still a coin toss with delisting or homesickness just as likely as him making it.
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti 30
- Seems kinda indestructible but I think by the time he's 30 he'll be starting to slow down a lot.
Alec Waterman 26
- I don't really see it here. His set shot goal kicking is a real weapon but he doesn't take enough marks within range for it to be a factor. He's one who is getting regular games but probably needs to be pushed out of the side by someone if we are to take the next step as a side.
Tom Hird 22
- People keep saying they see something in him, I'm not convinced and on the balance of probability I don't think he makes it.
Sam Durham 21
Kaine Baldwin 20

That ends up being 24 of 45 players who I anticipate will probably be taking a backwards step - either from best 22 to depth, or depth to delisted - in the space of a couple of years.

Small forwards are a big issue with Smith (hopefully) and Walla (probably) no longer commanding a spot in the senior side. I don't think we need to set out to trade or target this position in the draft as it sounds like we have some FS/NGA small forwards in the nest year or so.

The midfield definitely needs attention, we still haven't found a big bodied midfielder and with an aging Shiel seemingly the only player who's name isn't Darcy Parish or Zac Merrett who can win clearances I think a clearance winning midfielder should be high on our priority list. As a bonus, this would allow Stringer to spend less time in the midfield and more time up forward where I think he is a more dangerous player. As mentioned, I think Caldwell getting over his injuries should be seen as a bonus rather than an expectation. I would like us to look a little later inthe draft for a blue collar type who is prepared to do the team first stuff as well.

A replacement for Heppell should be high on the list too, it wouldn't hurt to have a crack with a couple of later picks this year but the chances of finding a player of Heppell's quality outside of the first round are pretty remote so I would be more comfortable if we use our first round pick in 2022 to target his successor. Hind and Heppell set up a lot of our plays so I don't think it is worth leaving this to chance, although as Hind and Saad (when we got him from GCS) proved, you can definitely find useful players cheap during trade week.

While it's not a position I think should be filled with a high pick or an expensive trade we should definitely get another ruck on the list to develop. We're OK for depth currently but if Phillips hangs up the boots we're pretty exposed should one of them go down with an injury.

The final critical need I see is the wing as I don't think a finals bound side has players like Ham in the best 22. It may be the case that recruiting additional midfielders pushes Langford into this role so it probably isn't critical enough to justify using a first round pick but it is something we need to keep in mind.

I don't think other positions are as critical as we either have depth or have a number of players in development to fill those roles who for the time being can be supplemented with later draft selections or cheap trades. One would hope we are assessing our stocks in these positions regularly between now and 2023 and change priorities if necessary. A lot of the quality on our list will be coming into their prime around 2023 so if there's no other pressing needs this would be the time to recruit a marquee player and search for some lesser lights to top up our depth for a big crack at the top 4.

Obviously peering this far into the crystal ball is fraught with uncertainty - players can suffer season ending injuries or request trades, other times a player we all regard as depth can make an unexpected step up and become a key part of the best 22. The main point of the exercise is to see how list management is a multi year, layered process and who we recruit now has long lasting impacts. Get it wrong and it can take years to turn it around which runs a very real risk of wasting the successful drafting of previous years.
Click to expand...

Agree with nearly all of this except:

I think Ham has clear strengths; huge tank, good pace and nice long kick. The question is whether the rest of his game is good enough. Struggles big time with the physical side of the game.

On Waterman it’s more wait and see how he goes when he drops weight and plays as a genuine half forward flank/mid. He’s shown flashes at stoppages that make me think he could be a long term player for us.
 
Ambrosia said:
Agree with nearly all of this except:

I think Ham has clear strengths; huge tank, good pace and nice long kick. The question is whether the rest of his game is good enough. Struggles big time with the physical side of the game.

On Waterman it’s more wait and see how he goes when he drops weight and plays as a genuine half forward flank/mid. He’s shown flashes at stoppages that make me think he could be a long term player for us.
Click to expand...
Yeah it was probably a bit unfair to query Waterman in his debut year in hindsight.
 
eth-dog said:
So, the following are still OOC:

3+ years: Jake Stringer
2 years: Jayden Laverde, Matt Guelfi
1 year: Andrew Phillips, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Cian McBride, Kaine Baldwin, Ned Cahill, Tom Hird

Delist: Irving Mosquito, Lachlan Johnson, Dylan Clarke, Tom Cutler, Martin Gleeson
Retire: Cale Hooker, David Zaharakis, Patrick Ambrose

That's what I think happens. Not that I think cutting our mature depth is a great idea. Depends on who we trade in as well
Click to expand...

I think that this will be reasonably close baring a left field request from someone to go. Would be what I am thinking as well.
 
Old Campaigner said:
For something a bit different and to demonstrate a bugbear of mine I thought it would be interesting to look at the age profile of the current list in 2 years time (2023 season). The reason I think this is a good way to examine the list is that I believe good list management should be proactive in identifying (where possible) future needs and deficiencies as much as meeting current needs and deficiencies.

It makes sense when you think about it - if you fail to have AFL standard players ready to step up as the older generation reach the end of their careers you then either need to trade someone in to fill the hole ASAP (and pay a premium for the convinience) or draft players and wait a few years for them to develop enough to fill the void.

A case in point would be our ruck stocks in recent years. Ryder requested a trade and it was clear Bellchambers couldn't keep going forever yet we waited until he was very much on his last legs before drafting Draper. Yes, other attempts were made - Thurlow, Lavender and Nyuon were drafted, Leuenberger and Clarke were traded but it's hard to see rookie draft picks as anything other than a gamble while Clarke and Leuenberger did not provide a long term solution. It really wasn't until Bryan was drafted in the second round that what I would consider a serious attempt at addressing the issue happened (Draper could've easily joined the long line of rookie list busts, especially after his ACL).

Another example would be our failure to find a big bodied midfielder to fill the void Watson left, something I'm not sure we've properly addressed to this day.

Our current group of players as it stands is as follows, each players' age in 2023 is listed. I have bolded the ones where there is reason to think they may not be on the list in 2023 or where it is likely they have regressed from being regulars in the best 22 to depth (similar to how Zaharakis is more of a stopgap these days).

Andrew McGrath 24
Sam Draper 24
Darcy Parish 25
Kyle Langford 26
Devon Smith 29
- I think this is pretty obvious, his performances have declined and his kicking is getting worse. He will still be on the list as he is contracted however I think unless our list management is genuinely awful he will be depth.
Jye Caldwell 22
- Good player but I can't help thinking that with his history of soft tissue injuries he is probably touch and go to play regular games from this point. He will still be on the list as he is contracted to 2024 and while some players have overcome recurring infuries most do not and I don't think it is sensible to include him in future list management calculations. If he makes it it's a bonus.
Zach Merrett 27
Martin Gleeson 28
- Handy player as we saw last night, albeit against a shithouse opposition. It could be argued either way whether he stays or goes but I don't think he's a regular in the best 22 unless there's a lot of injuries and I don't really see the point in keeping someone in that situation on the list.
Dylan Shiel 30
- Will still be on the list but at 30 his best years will be behind him and I doubt his breakaway speed which is his real weapon and point of difference will be a factor. It may take a couple of bites at the cherry to find a player of his standard to start filling the void so I would be more at ease if that process started now.
Aaron Francis 25
- I can't help thinking he'll request a trade to SA. I don't think we get much back for him either because he hasn't really lived up to his potential.
David Zaharakis 33
- Obviously gone, probably at the end of 2021
Tom Cutler 28
- Only gets games due to injuries and I think to improve as a side our depth needs to be better than this. I think he gets delisted either this year or next.
Nik Cox 21
Jordan Ridley 24
Jayden Laverde 27
Archie Perkins 21
James Stewart 29
- Kind of hard to get a feel for. I think he's still on this list in 2023 but probably (hopefully) has become depth rather than our first choice KPD.
Michael Hurley 32
- Apparently still hasn't started running properly and I would be surprised if a player his age can get back to the standard required to be a regular in the senior team. I think he retires at the end of 2022.
Nick Hind 28
Peter Wright 26
Dyson Heppell 30
- Has looked good in defence but I think by 30 he'll be very much worse for wear.
Irving Mosquito 22
- I get the feeling most people here agree it's unlikely he'll be back.
Harrison Jones 22
Nick Bryan 21
Jake Stringer 28
Cale Hooker 34
- Shouldn't play next year. Early in the season I thought he would go around again but as the season has gone on he's been getting slower.
Mason Redman 25
Ned Cahill 22
- I don't think he's really shown enough for anyone to have any real expectation he'll be on the list in 2 years time. I think it's just a question of whether this year or next is his last.
Patrick Ambrose 31
- Injury prone, I don't think he plays beyond this year.
Brandon Zerk-Thatcher 24
- I think he is pretty close to as good as he is ever going to be, which isn't too bad but not good enough to get regular games. In an ideal world he is replaced as depth by Brand/Eyre (if the switch to defence is permanent) or Stewart.
Zach Reid 21
Josh Eyre 20
Brayden Ham 23
- He shows some signs but I think when you're his size you need a real weapon or point of difference and I'm not sure he has that. Contracted to next year but for us to improve our depth needs to be better than this.
Andrew Phillips 31
- Maybe he plays past 30, maybe he doesn't. He's currently reasonablly injury prone and I don't think that is something that gets better with age.
Matt Guelfi 25
- I don't really know what happens from here. Handy enough but at the end of the day he's in and out of a mediocre side with a significant injury list and I don't think many players are held onto for long in that situation.
Lachlan Johnson 21
- By all reports he's not doing well in the VFL and is no chance of making it into the senior side.
Dylan Clarke 24
- Our one attempt at a big bodied mid since Watson. I think if after 5 years in the system and your kicking is still a liability your days are probably numbered. Already demoted to the rookie list and when turnovers are already a major reason we get scored against so heavily so he's probably not a priority to re-sign.
Cody Brand 20
Will Snelling 25
Cian McBride 22
- Kicked a bunch of goals in the VFL but it's still a coin toss with delisting or homesickness just as likely as him making it.
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti 30
- Seems kinda indestructible but I think by the time he's 30 he'll be starting to slow down a lot.
Alec Waterman 26
- I don't really see it here. His set shot goal kicking is a real weapon but he doesn't take enough marks within range for it to be a factor. He's one who is getting regular games but probably needs to be pushed out of the side by someone if we are to take the next step as a side.
Tom Hird 22
- People keep saying they see something in him, I'm not convinced and on the balance of probability I don't think he makes it.
Sam Durham 21
Kaine Baldwin 20

That ends up being 24 of 45 players who I anticipate will probably be taking a backwards step - either from best 22 to depth, or depth to delisted - in the space of a couple of years.

Small forwards are a big issue with Smith (hopefully) and Walla (probably) no longer commanding a spot in the senior side. I don't think we need to set out to trade or target this position in the draft as it sounds like we have some FS/NGA small forwards in the nest year or so.

The midfield definitely needs attention, we still haven't found a big bodied midfielder and with an aging Shiel seemingly the only player who's name isn't Darcy Parish or Zac Merrett who can win clearances I think a clearance winning midfielder should be high on our priority list. As a bonus, this would allow Stringer to spend less time in the midfield and more time up forward where I think he is a more dangerous player. As mentioned, I think Caldwell getting over his injuries should be seen as a bonus rather than an expectation. I would like us to look a little later inthe draft for a blue collar type who is prepared to do the team first stuff as well.

A replacement for Heppell should be high on the list too, it wouldn't hurt to have a crack with a couple of later picks this year but the chances of finding a player of Heppell's quality outside of the first round are pretty remote so I would be more comfortable if we use our first round pick in 2022 to target his successor. Hind and Heppell set up a lot of our plays so I don't think it is worth leaving this to chance, although as Hind and Saad (when we got him from GCS) proved, you can definitely find useful players cheap during trade week.

While it's not a position I think should be filled with a high pick or an expensive trade we should definitely get another ruck on the list to develop. We're OK for depth currently but if Phillips hangs up the boots we're pretty exposed should one of them go down with an injury.

The final critical need I see is the wing as I don't think a finals bound side has players like Ham in the best 22. It may be the case that recruiting additional midfielders pushes Langford into this role so it probably isn't critical enough to justify using a first round pick but it is something we need to keep in mind.

I don't think other positions are as critical as we either have depth or have a number of players in development to fill those roles who for the time being can be supplemented with later draft selections or cheap trades. One would hope we are assessing our stocks in these positions regularly between now and 2023 and change priorities if necessary. A lot of the quality on our list will be coming into their prime around 2023 so if there's no other pressing needs this would be the time to recruit a marquee player and search for some lesser lights to top up our depth for a big crack at the top 4.

Obviously peering this far into the crystal ball is fraught with uncertainty - players can suffer season ending injuries or request trades, other times a player we all regard as depth can make an unexpected step up and become a key part of the best 22. The main point of the exercise is to see how list management is a multi year, layered process and who we recruit now has long lasting impacts. Get it wrong and it can take years to turn it around which runs a very real risk of wasting the successful drafting of previous years.
Click to expand...

I do not see any reason why Shiel would be slower at 30.
Also do not agree on Watreman. He is going okay for a bloke who has played 5 odd games and he will progress into a forward / midfielder if he goes on.
Anyway even in the good times you are turning over 7 to 10 players a year so in a 3 year period you will turn over 21 to 30 players.
 
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