Scape Goat The Cam Guthrie Echo Chamber

[cats_09]

Metres gained is something of a flawed stat - it doesn't account for the effectiveness of the disposal just the distance the ball travels.

A 50m kick forward that to straight to the opposition who in turn starts a passage of play that ends up with a goal, still sees the initial kick award the player with +50m

Alternatively, a handball 2m backwards out of a pack to a teammate that sets up an attacking move, sees the initial handball award the player with negative metres.

Not going to comment on the specifics of Guthrie's metres gained against the Dogs, because it would be better to see all players in the positive - but more metres gained doesn't necessarily equates to being more effective in terms of attacking play

 

[Warhorse]

Metres gained is something of a flawed stat - it doesn't account for the effectiveness of the disposal just the distance of the distance the ball travels.

A 50m kick forward that to straight to the opposition who in turn starts a passage of play that ends up with a goal, still sees the initial kick award the player with +50m

Alternatively, a handball 2m backwards out of a pack to a teammate that sets up an attacking move, sees the initial handball award the player with negative metres.

Not going to comment on the specifics of Guthrie's metres gained against the Dogs, because it would be better to see all players in the positive - but more metres gained doesn't necessarily equates to being more effective in terms of attacking play

He was poor by every other metric as well

 

[frggr]

Not sure if it was someone getting under the skin of hawfies, but did Worpel have a negative metres gained game?

 

[you pick one]

Trouble with Guthrie is backward dinky football is his MO,kick or handball backwards then demand the stat padding return handball or short 10m pass,then another dinky possession,mean while the opposition are flooding back and setting up the number down the ground for the eventual kick in panic down the line as pressure builds.

 

[Spazz Cat]

Metres gained is something of a flawed stat - it doesn't account for the effectiveness of the disposal just the distance of the distance the ball travels.

A 50m kick forward that to straight to the opposition who in turn starts a passage of play that ends up with a goal, still sees the initial kick award the player with +50m

Alternatively, a handball 2m backwards out of a pack to a teammate that sets up an attacking move, sees the initial handball award the player with negative metres.

Not going to comment on the specifics of Guthrie's metres gained against the Dogs, because it would be better to see all players in the positive - but more metres gained doesn't necessarily equates to being more effective in terms of attacking play

Yeah, meters gained is a bit of a bullshit stat. It needs to be changed to metres gained to advantage to really mean anything.
That said I don't think I've seen a player get negative in meters gained before.
Off 12 touches too! It's a fair effort.

 

[Spazz Cat]

Not sure if it was someone getting under the skin of hawfies, but did Worpel have a negative metres gained game?

Doubt it, he kicked a goal. And he's a mid.
Unless he kicked it from 1m out then kicked backwards all game I don't think it'd be possible.

 

[cats_09]

Yeah, meters gained is a bit of a bulls**t stat. It needs to be changed to metres gained to advantage to really mean anything.
That said I don't think I've seen a player get negative in meters gained before.
Off 12 touches too! It's a fair effort.

It should be based on effective disposals or as you said metres to advantage

I know that in the Carlton vs GWS game this year that when De Boer held Cripps to 12 disposals (3 kicks & 9 handballs), that Cripps (Brownlow fancy) had only 32 metres gained for the match. So yes that's in positive territory, but how many backwards passes in they lot to have such low metres gained in the match?

 

[Spazz Cat]

It should be based on effective disposals or as you said metres to advantage

I know that in the Carlton vs GWS game this year that when De Boer held Cripps to 12 disposals (3 kicks & 9 handballs), that Cripps (Brownlow fancy) had only 32 metres gained for the match. So yes that's in positive territory, but how many backwards passes in they lot to have such low metres gained in the match?

Yeah that's true. You would think probably all kicks.
And also like DE% it doesn't take into account position played. Off course a running half back is gonna have more meters gained than an inside mid firing out handballs from stoppages.

 

[PatrickBateman]

That said I don't think I've seen a player get negative in meters gained before.
Off 12 touches too! It's a fair effort.

Cameron is special.

 

[Larry Donohue]

Cockatoo and Menegola are the BIG ????'s.

Be great if they both broke in and provided their best though. Those two are potentially the key

 

[Larry Donohue]

What does the Guthrie situation really mean?
Would somebody be watching that game have any idea he ended up with that figure?
Could you even try to get that result?
I don't get it tbh.

For mine he takes the easy option rather than breaking lines. If you have the kicking skill you will find a player forward of the ball. He chooses to go to the loose player behind him. Penetration is paramount in Geelong's attacking style of play. His style of play is detrimental to that.
I believe it is mental with Cam. He is afraid to attack and collapses when pressure is on. Id like to see a stat for error under pressure come in. He would be way behind on that one.
Too often takes the easy option.
Kick backwards, avoid contact, dont chase without the ball.
When do you ever see him run and dig the ball out of a pack like Joel or paddy or gaj.
Doesnt like dirty hands.
Cocky would die for the team. So would blitz, stewart, henry o'connor hawk harry etc
If cam would show that and then make errors I'd forgive him.
He is not a life depends on him kinda guy

 

[Warhorse]

At least I can say I had a more positive impact on the match than Guthrie

 

[cats_09]

For mine he takes the easy option rather than breaking lines. If you have the kicking skill you will find a player forward of the ball. He chooses to go to the loose player behind him. Penetration is paramount in Geelong's attacking style of play. His style of play is detrimental to that.
I believe it is mental with Cam. He is afraid to attack and collapses when pressure is on. Id like to see a stat for error under pressure come in. He would be way behind on that one.
Too often takes the easy option.
Kick backwards, avoid contact, dont chase without the ball.
When do you ever see him run and dig the ball out of a pack like Joel or paddy or gaj.
Doesnt like dirty hands.
Cocky would die for the team. So would blitz, stewart, henry o'connor hawk harry etc
If cam would show that and then make errors I'd forgive him.
He is not a life depends on him kinda guy

Can I add a counter point to the above about him not attacking or breaking lines - when he has done that in the past, it has resulted in criticism of him trying to do too much if he gets caught holding the ball or that he should take the first option & give it to an open teammate.

 

[Larry Donohue]

Can I add a counter point to the above about him not attacking or breaking lines - when he has done that in the past, it has resulted in criticism of him trying to do too much if he gets caught holding the ball or that he should take the first option & give it to an open teammate.

I understand the counter cats09.
He tended to do that as a backman and cost goals.
Again I think it is a mental issue with him. He seems confused about when to attack.
I once upon a time thought he added spark to our team. This has disappeared imho.
I genuinely believe he should go back to the twos and given specific instructions to work on
A) his self belief
B) his risk and reward
C) his killer instinct
D) his belief in teammates ahead of the ball
E) his front on impact
F) his work without the ball

We got rid of Menzel for E) and F) alone

 

[cats_09]

I understand the counter cats09.
He tended to do that as a backman and cost goals.
Again I think it is a mental issue with him. He seems confused about when to attack.
I once upon a time thought he added spark to our team. This has disappeared imho.
I genuinely believe he should go back to the twos and given specific instructions to work on
A) his self belief
B) his risk and reward
C) his killer instinct
D) his belief in teammates ahead of the ball
E) his front on impact
F) his work without the ball

We got rid of Menzel for E) and F) alone

I also wonder if there's been a change in role for him this year.

Back 2015 & 2016 when he was last playing more permanent midfield, he was averaging around 76/77% TOG and his ave metres gained those seasons were 231m & 254m.

The last 3 years his ave metres gained has dropped to between 173m & 181m, while his TOG has dropped to 75%, 72% this year just over 70%

You may be correct that he is confused as to when he should be attacking or maybe it's based on instructions from the coaches - the media stuff from the club indicate they are happy with his contribution & the role he is playing in the side, maybe from a fan perspective it would be good to get an understanding of what that role entails

 

[you pick one]

The kicker for me with Cam is at the ball ups and throw ins he stands a man defensively obviously under instructions,i'm happy with that if it's the case,It's after that where I wonder what the f--k is going on,he is then found trotting up or down the ground without an opponent so he's not tagging or doing a run with role and never do the opposition bother to send a man to him because he's predictable in his defensive ways with his non threatening short game.
He demands absolutely no respect from oppositions,he need a change of attitude one and find better more dangerous field position two or be replaced in the side by someone who can.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

He knows he won't be dropped and plays accordingly.

 

[Max Milburn]

He pulls the wings off little children and eats his own earwax.

 

[you pick one]

He knows he won't be dropped and plays accordingly.

Surely he is testing their patience now.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Surely he is testing their patience now.

I highly doubt it. And he knows it.
He'll start in the midfield again, Geelong will beat St.Kilda easy and he'll coast into the Hawthorn game with the same mindset he does in every game ... not giving a **** knowing his spot is safe.

 

[Warhorse]

He is playing exactly the same way he was in the vfl before he come back in. Scott loves his favourites and will soon be cramming Henderson and selwood into the team

 

[cats_09]

He is playing exactly the same way he was in the vfl before he come back in. Scott loves his favourites and will soon be cramming Henderson and selwood into the team

Scooter has played 9 VFL games - if he was such a favorite to the extent that he would be in the team regardless of form, he would have been selected 4/6 weeks ago

Instead he still finds himself in the VFL side, though he has been named in the bests the last 5 games & in 6 of the last 7 games; if he keeps up that form & does get selected it will be on merit not because of some falsely perceived favouritism

 

[PatrickBateman]

Can I add a counter point to the above about him not attacking or breaking lines - when he has done that in the past, it has resulted in criticism of him trying to do too much if he gets caught holding the ball or that he should take the first option & give it to an open teammate.

Guthrie's problem - You're right, when he tries to attack and / or break the lines, he does often have 'deer in the headlights' moments and gets caught. He's not evasive or fast enough, he's not strong enough to single arm fend off.

The reason he's changed his game is he plays safe, we all know this. If he gets caught, it looks bad. If he goes backwards / sideways, it doesn't look so bad. His confidence as an AFL player is horrible. He's surviving only, which is what's frustrating. The coaching staff clearly aren't challenging him enough, which I maintain is the main problem. I blame the GFC primarily.

The GFC seemingly don't challenge him, don't drop him (in the hope he gets a mental reset), no... they just now give him much fewer minutes while we're playing shit. Then they'll put him back in the thick of it once we start winning again. Player protected.

 

[Larry Donohue]

He pulls the wings off little children and eats his own earwax.

If I saw him doing that I'd understand his contribution
I understand the bad taste, but I reckon children would bring fear to him too if they rejected their wing removal

 

[Vdubs]

Guthrie's problem - You're right, when he tries to attack and / or break the lines, he does often have 'deer in the headlights' moments and gets caught. He's not evasive or fast enough, he's not strong enough to single arm fend off.

The reason he's changed his game is he plays safe, we all know this. If he gets caught, it looks bad. If he goes backwards / sideways, it doesn't look so bad. His confidence as an AFL player is horrible. He's surviving only, which is what's frustrating. The coaching staff clearly aren't challenging him enough, which I maintain is the main problem. I blame the GFC primarily.

The GFC seemingly don't challenge him, don't drop him (in the hope he gets a mental reset), no... they just now give him much fewer minutes while we're playing s**t. Then they'll put him back in the thick of it once we start winning again. Player protected.

You are obsessed.