Mega Thread The Father-Son Mega thread - 2019

[Lickmesocks]

Are you suggesting that anyone who rates Finn is being dishonest?

I just wonder how many have actually seen Finn play.

Handy size without many tricks is how I would rate him.

Without all the hype that has been created I would suggest a pick between 30-40 type.

Some have whipped themselves up into a frenzy on here in the hope we are pinching a superstar.

 

[Lickmesocks]

Don’t rate Finn?

Handy player. A pick between 30-40 perhaps.

 

[KermitJagger]

Handy player. A pick between 30-40 perhaps.

Oh, right - and this is the realistic call in the thread. Pick 30-40.

You know that the internet points you collect for being the 'realist' don't actually get you anything right?

He may slide a bit, and he comes that late I have no doubt that Hawthorn will be ecstatic, but it's not going to happen.

 

[Lickmesocks]

Oh, right - and this is the realistic call in the thread. Pick 30-40.

You know that the internet points you collect for being the 'realist' don't actually get you anything right?

He may slide a bit, and he comes that late I have no doubt that Hawthorn will be ecstatic, but it's not going to happen.

Sure.

I see Finn perhaps a Brad Sewell type that will take a while to make it at the level.

He can run and is a decent size.

 

[KermitJagger]

Sure.

I see Finn perhaps a Brad Sewell type that will take a while to make it at the level.

He can run and is a decent size.

Despite being significantly taller than Brad Sewell and fundamentally a different player?

 

[Hawk the Talk]

It’s really hard to say what he’s going to be at this stage isn’t it? So much of drafting young talent comes down to their development... how often do we see top 10 draft picks fail to do anything at the top level.

Fin probably gets a bid around pick 20 but it looks like a bit of a raffle outside the top few picks so who knows.

 

[grumbleguts]

I know the history of the term but it still annoys me when people here use it. FWIW I have no issue with 'drinking the cordial'. This obviously would have to be drank from a shoe though

The closest we come is this:



So maybe rather than drinking the cordial, we could say "drinking the coola"?

 

[grumbleguts]

We would get pick 45 another Worpel I believe.

Fixed.

 

[grumbleguts]

Yeh, I was wondering what exactly was 'fixed'. He is literally a Legend. Not just 'a bloody ledge'.

It literally blew my head off, reading this.

 

[cryptor]

Finn can clearly play some great footy and I reckon for his position and size his really impressive running test results at the combine will have attracted a lot more interest than before the combine.

I'd be surprised if there wasn't at least one other club who currently rates him higher than Hawthorn do. But currently only 9 different clubs hold a pick before the first rounder we currently have. But that's not to say we rate him as high as our first pick or that any of those clubs do either. Maybe Hawthorn only rate him as a pick in the second round.

We can't know until the draft happens. Until then we can only speculate.

 

[MrPremiership]

Finn has already been interviewed by the Club, and they're going to interview him again shortly

Finn was also at the Father-Daughter-Son day organised by Nathan Foley and the Club last week.


Fair bit of contact for a kid they might not want to match a high bid on.....

Finn also has a younger brother IIRC....about 15yo right now

 

[Slick]

Sure.

I see Finn perhaps a Brad Sewell type that will take a while to make it at the level.

He can run and is a decent size.

Can win the ball on the inside, can go forward and take a good mark, can kick goals. Has proven that over the course of the year at NAB League and Championship level. That's a few different skills/tricks on which to develop an inside midfielder from.

 

[mustang]

Finn has already been interviewed by the Club, and they're going to interview him again shortly

Finn was also at the Father-Daughter-Son day organised by Nathan Foley and the Club last week.


Fair bit of contact for a kid they might not want to match a high bid on.....

Finn also has a younger brother IIRC....about 15yo right now

Is his younger brother the same size

 

[Brishawk]

I just wonder how many have actually seen Finn play.

Handy size without many tricks is how I would rate him.

Without all the hype that has been created I would suggest a pick between 30-40 type.

Some have whipped themselves up into a frenzy on here in the hope we are pinching a superstar.

There are several on here that have watched him a lot and rate him highly. I know someone with a connect to a recruiter who rates him highly. Just because people rate him doesn’t mean they are being dishonest. Not to say you have to agree of course. Absolutely everyone is entitled to their opinion and I’m not going to argue either way because I haven’t seen enough of him

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Is his younger brother the same size

Not yet.,

 

[TheExtractorFactor]

 

[Carl Spackler]

Snooze. Pick 11 will cover all early picks but for 1-4. A combo of picks in the 30's will cover everything after pick 11. So I would be surprised if we used pick 11 on him at pick 11. If he makes it to 11 we can cover with later picks. If he goes earlier then we cover with pick 11. When you have a father-son pick the smart move is to delay picking him as long as possible, even taking lesser players first, and ensuring you have a bank of picks ready to use when he's bid on by another team.

While normally you pick players in the order of their importance to you with regards to their likely availability at later picks. But when you introduce the F/S discount on a player it warps the availability variable so much (plus add in first right of refusal) that it actually rewards you to pick later. Consider Ablett, even considering the strength of that draft year, Gaz was taken with pick 40. Jarrod Waite with pick 46.

Players Geelong took before Ablett in that draft were Bartel, James Kelly, Charlie Gardener and Stevie J. Some good players but Ablett good? Not even close. And that was apparent at draft time.

Point is, the F/S rules completely warp normal drafting behaviour. If Hawthorn nominate Finn as a F/S then I would be amazed if they pick him any sooner than if they are forced or after they have already collected all their other targets. But then I'm not an actual list manager and I don't have the bigger Hawthorn picture in mind. I'm merely looking at the way the draft is distorted by the F/S mechanism.

 

[Lawsy]

How old are you Carl Spackler ? F/S back in the day used to be a 3rd rounder, that was it. There were others in the late 90's and early 00's where it was a rort for the clubs that had good F/S's coming through. We got nothing that I can remember.

Edit: I just read Ben Coussins was a free hit for West Coast as prior to '97, there were no points or bidding, just taken for free as a F/S.

 

[Carl Spackler]

How old are you Carl Spackler ? F/S back in the day used to be a 3rd rounder, that was it. There were others in the late 90's and early 00's where it was a rort for the clubs that had good F/S's coming through. We got nothing that I can remember.

It's not age but care factor for the evolution of the F/S rules that is relevant. Regardless, the point is the entirely true. With a 20% discount and first right of refusal it pays to pick a F/S candidate as late as possible. He is, by definition, always in your grasp. We have no need to act upon a F/S selection until forced or until all other candidates have been taken. And if you're forced to act upon him earlier than you would in the absence of the F/S nomination then you let him go. It's as simple as that.

In this case, if someone were to pick him early in order to force our hand then I think they are being naive in the extreme. If we rate him as a late teen and they rate him as a late teen but pick him with 5 in order to make us panic and use 11 then I think they are nuts. They shoot themselves in foot by missing a better candidate. It's ridiculous.

 

[GerryLewis]

I'd be staggered. From what I've seen and read, Finn isn't a to 10 pick. Though if we believe he is, we'll match, if we don't, we won't. Simple.

 

[Billyc]

I'd be staggered. From what I've seen and read, Finn isn't a to 10 pick. Though if we believe he is, we'll match, if we don't, we won't. Simple.

Yep. Non issue. We don’t do sentiment for 300 game club legends. We are not going to do sentiment for an 18 year kid because his dad played for the club 30 years ago.

 

[TylerDurden]

Yep. Non issue. We don’t do sentiment for 300 game club legends. We are not going to do sentiment for an 18 year kid because his dad played for the club 30 years ago.

I 100% agree here, but this would piss off thousands of Hawk fans should we do this.

 

[Lawsy]

It's not age but care factor for the evolution of the F/S rules that is relevant. Regardless, the point is the entirely true. With a 20% discount and first right of refusal it pays to pick a F/S candidate as late as possible. He is, by definition, always in your grasp. We have no need to act upon a F/S selection until forced or until all other candidates have been taken. And if you're forced to act upon him earlier than you would in the absence of the F/S nomination then you let him go. It's as simple as that.

In this case, if someone were to pick him early in order to force our hand then I think they are being naive in the extreme. If we rate him as a late teen and they rate him as a late teen but pick him with 5 in order to make us panic and use 11 then I think they are nuts. They shoot themselves in foot by missing a better candidate. It's ridiculous.

But Geelong nor Carlton had no choice to make when Ablett and Waite were selected. They we able to wait until the 3rd round before selecting their father sons so both are moot points to the rest of what you're saying. I agree with the premise of what you're saying regarding the F/S in its current state though.

 

[Brishawk]

F/s basically gives you close to a one round discount on average except for very top end talent which the round discount is smaller. I’m ok with that.

 

[hk89]

F/s basically gives you close to a one round discount on average except for very top end talent which the round discount is smaller. I’m ok with that.

I reckon it is harsh if your father son is one of the very best players in the draft because of that smaller top end discount. If I understand the points involved (and I'm not 100% sure I do), if you win the flag and you have a father son that would go #1 then it is very hard to match anyone who bids for him at #1. The discount means you're bidding with either pick 2 (with a refund) or pick 3 plus points from later picks to match. Its not easy to gather the points if your first pick is 22 (which I think was WC's first rounder last year). You finish top and give up your first, second and third rounder, and you're still nearly 1000 points short of being able to match the #1 pick, even with the discount.

I agree F/S shouldn't be a free hit, and the AFL are trying to balance their equalisation goals, but to align with the romantic spirit of the idea, I reckon a flag winner should be able to match a bid against a father son that is going to go very early, and right now it is pretty much impossible without trading for picks if that scenario arises.