Prediction The lid

[Footy_Fan2007]

David King just said “it would take a freak occurrence for Geelong to not win the flag this year”

It makes for some uneasy feelings.

The expectation of us winning it is starting to feel like 2007 to me.
Not the 44 year drought obviously, but the expectation to win it.

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

David King just said “it would take a freak occurrence for Geelong to not win the flag this year”

It makes for some uneasy feelings.

The expectation of us winning it is starting to feel like 2007 to me.
Not the 44 year drought obviously, but the expectation to win it.

Oh god...

The good news is I think we now have the mental toughness to deal with the expectations. Games against Port and Tigers this year really confirm to me our mental toughness and resilience.

 

[goyoucatters]

David King just said “it would take a freak occurrence for Geelong to not win the flag this year”

It makes for some uneasy feelings.

If the prognostications of one pundit who is paid to be controversial and make 'bold statements' are going to upset the applecart, we were never going anywhere. The players would be daft to believe this nonsense and insipid beyond belief if they thought it made any difference to our actual chances.

As long as they continue to let their performances do all the talking, we will be right in it this year.

 

[Generalissimo]

Also, David King does not like us and is just dumb enough to think "the mozz" is an actual thing.

 

[fpm84]

“If you look right now there’s one team in the competition that is number one this season for turning possession into score,” King told SEN’s Whateley.

“They’re also the best at denying the opposition possession to score. So number one attack, number one defence.

“That hasn’t happened since ‘07, so we haven’t seen it for 15 years.

“If you look across the competition, teams are rated high in one or the other. They’re really good defensively or they’re really good on offence, but they’re not great at both, no other team is rated top six in both – they’re one and one."

Why it’ll take a “freak event” to stop Geelong winning the flag

The Cats have won 11 games in a row.

www.sen.com.au

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

David King just said “it would take a freak occurrence for Geelong to not win the flag this year”

It makes for some uneasy feelings.

The expectation of us winning it is starting to feel like 2007 to me.
Not the 44 year drought obviously, but the expectation to win it.

Melbourne and Collingwood stamped their credentials for the Flag Friday Night - 4 quarter high pressure game with the Pies going at an insane 204 for the last quarter. Tigers also coming - who'd want to play them in September.
We are right up there but it's going to be an intense Finals series - we must win our QF this year.
If our midfield can have a great finals series we will be 75% there - particularly if we give quality delivery to our forwards.......

 

[Chinacats]

“If you look right now there’s one team in the competition that is number one this season for turning possession into score,” King told SEN’s Whateley.

“They’re also the best at denying the opposition possession to score. So number one attack, number one defence.

“That hasn’t happened since ‘07, so we haven’t seen it for 15 years.

“If you look across the competition, teams are rated high in one or the other. They’re really good defensively or they’re really good on offence, but they’re not great at both, no other team is rated top six in both – they’re one and one."

Why it’ll take a “freak event” to stop Geelong winning the flag

The Cats have won 11 games in a row.

www.sen.com.au

YES! it's our flag to lose! Unfortunately it's flag or flop time ! Flops in 13, 16, 19, 20, 21...... can't finish top 4 8 times in the last 10 and not win a flag. That's a failure. We are premiership favs, statistically the best, 11 on the trot, most experience in finals. Freak accident or jittey-idis mega flop call it what you may. Disaster not to win it. Unfortunately the X is firmly on our backs again. July champions/August champions ... teams will come after you in September. Let's see how they hold up. All chips in for the QF!!! Love it!

 

[Isaac Norm Smith]

Also, David King does not like us and is just dumb enough to think "the mozz" is an actual thing.

Does he really not like us? I haven't previously thought of him as one of those types that sticks out as being anti Geelong....maybe its just me.

Nathan Buckey on the other hand, it's become quite apparent (at least to me) that he doesn't like Geelong. I think he's struggling to hide it.

Brian Taylor is another that sticks out...he likes to sink the boot in at every available opportunity.

 

[Chinacats]

Does he really not like us? I haven't previously thought of him as one of those types that sticks out as being anti Geelong....maybe its just me.

Nathan Buckey on the other hand, it's become quite apparent (at least to me) that he doesn't like Geelong. I think he's struggling to hide it.

Brian Taylor is another that sticks out...he likes to sink the boot in at every available opportunity.

King said we are the best in it and he doesn't like us? Buckley has repeatedly said we are a very good club etc...I can't say they don't like us.. BT is a big fan of Tommy Hawkins and on the commentary the other night said Chris Scott has done an amazing job to keep us top 4 every year . I don't see the dislike....

 

[goyoucatters]

If our midfield can have a great finals series we will be 75% there - particularly if we give quality delivery to our forwards.......

This is true. The other enormous factor for us will be the question of conversion. Even with teams inferior to this one, we could have won additional finals in past years if we hadn't been so all over the place in front of goal.

Make it count, Cats.

 

[Sydney Malakellis]

I asked the AI art generator DALL-E to show me "JOEL SELWOOD HOLDING THE 2022 AFL PREMIERSHIP CUP" and it's confirmed my greatest wishes.

LOL

 

[JohnZ]

Melbourne and Collingwood stamped their credentials for the Flag Friday Night - 4 quarter high pressure game with the Pies going at an insane 204 for the last quarter. Tigers also coming - who'd want to play them in September.
We are right up there but it's going to be an intense Finals series - we must win our QF this year.
If our midfield can have a great finals series we will be 75% there - particularly if we give quality delivery to our forwards.......

I’m not so sure. Melbourne completely dominated posession of the ball, but couldn’t put it on the board nor stop the pies from scoring.

The inside 50s were 65 to 41. If we had that discrepancy, Statistically I’d be expecting 30+ scoring shots (Dees had 24), and Pies would have 10-15 scoring shots (They had 21 against the Dees).

Based on that, our F50 and D50 is better than Melbourne, which is backed up our #1 ranking in scores generated and scores defended per I50. (See this weeks on the couch).

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

I’m not so sure. Melbourne completely dominated posession of the ball, but couldn’t put it on the board nor stop the pies from scoring.

The inside 50s were 65 to 41. If we had that discrepancy, Statistically I’d be expecting 30+ scoring shots (Dees had 24), and Pies would have 10-15 scoring shots (They had 21 against the Dees).

Based on that, our F50 and D50 is better than Melbourne, which is backed up our #1 ranking in scores generated and scores defended per I50. (See this weeks on the couch).

Cheers JohnZ
My main concern from that game was the pressure rating from each side over the 4 quarters - that was elite and probably a sign of what's to come from the real contenders.
I'm loving our ball movement and potency at both ends but if I have a concern it's our ability to execute under extreme pressure - in Finals.
I'm optimistic though as we have come through so far in some intense games and our form in the second half of the season is so much better than the first.
If our ball movement holds up under finals pressure we should be there at the pointy end

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

I didn’t realise how short we are for the flag. $2.75
That’s shortest we have been since 2008 surely?

 

[kickazz]

David King just said “it would take a freak occurrence for Geelong to not win the flag this year”

It makes for some uneasy feelings.

The expectation of us winning it is starting to feel like 2007 to me.
Not the 44 year drought obviously, but the expectation to win it.

Freak occurrence?

We have a more or less 50 record against the Swans in recent years, and they are playing good footy. That's just one considerable hurdle.

(and if you look at the betting exchanges, our price is $3. So even though we are favourites, the market still thinks we are TWICE as likely to NOT WIN than we are to win the flag)

Time for Kingy to take a tablet and lie down.

 

[kickazz]

I didn’t realise how short we are for the flag. $2.75
That’s shortest we have been since 2008 surely?

For this time of year maybe.

2020 GF Before the bounce we were just over $2 and less than that obviously at half time (not that I felt convinced at the time!)

 

[Pollywaffle]

My main concern is our set shot goal kicking.
Still seeing guys regularly missing gettable goals. I can only assume this is susceptibility to pressure which will only get worse in a final. There is no one in this team whom I would have kicking at goal for my life.
Our earlier teams had Bartel, SJ, Chapman. Guys who wanted to take the shot. This team maybe Tuouhy, Duncan on a good day. Rohan was ok but has regressed. Hawkins and Cameron are shaky when its a gimme.
I suggest we spend the bye just practising set shots within 45 metres in a 45 degree arc.

 

[standupand]

My main concern is our set shot goal kicking.
Still seeing guys regularly missing gettable goals. I can only assume this is susceptibility to pressure which will only get worse in a final. There is no one in this team whom I would have kicking at goal for my life.
Our earlier teams had Bartel, SJ, Chapman. Guys who wanted to take the shot. This team maybe Tuouhy, Duncan on a good day. Rohan was ok but has regressed. Hawkins and Cameron are shaky when its a gimme.
I suggest we spend the bye just practising set shots within 45 metres in a 45 degree arc.

I'm sure they will. Also with miles in the legs and so on.
You're right though. In 2020 I felt our goalkicking was a highlight. This year, we're getting more looks, but missing quite a few chances.
The way I think about it is that in 2020 we really were playing a game based on very controlled build up play. This had at least 2 aspects. 1. We only really looked to go inside 50 where we could hit a marking target in a good position to score; and 2. Tomahawk was that main target most of the time and he is both an excellent kick and wasn't tiring himself out working up the ground as much as he has at times this year.
On the other hand, this year we're looking to get it in there quicker and backing the crumbers we now have on our list (Stengle, Cameron..) to make the most of the entries, even if those entries are a bit more random. Those players are also covering a lot of ground during a game and it has an effect on goal-kicking.

 

[Nest of Cats]

2008. Keep. The. Lid. On.

 

[Sky]

2008. Keep. The. Lid. On.

We are better than everyone this year but not 2008 levels better than everyone

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

My main concern is our set shot goal kicking.
Still seeing guys regularly missing gettable goals. I can only assume this is susceptibility to pressure which will only get worse in a final. There is no one in this team whom I would have kicking at goal for my life.
Our earlier teams had Bartel, SJ, Chapman. Guys who wanted to take the shot. This team maybe Tuouhy, Duncan on a good day. Rohan was ok but has regressed. Hawkins and Cameron are shaky when its a gimme.
I suggest we spend the bye just practising set shots within 45 metres in a 45 degree arc.

It’s been a concern for most of the year. When you see Hawk playing on quickly and kicking a snap from 30 directly in front you know the confidence is low.

Needs to be fixed asap. God I hope it doesn’t cost us a final.

 

[Mr Meow]

It’s been a concern for most of the year. When you see Hawk playing on quickly and kicking a snap from 30 directly in front you know the confidence is low.

Needs to be fixed asap. God I hope it doesn’t cost us a final.

Conversely though, if Geelong's set shot goal kicking accuracy was even just the median value of AFL clubs, % would be in the 150s. Our dominance often hasn't been reflected on the scoreboard but from general play, it's as strong as anything since 2013.

 

[barmy44]

David King just said “it would take a freak occurrence for Geelong to not win the flag this year”

It makes for some uneasy feelings.

The expectation of us winning it is starting to feel like 2007 to me.
Not the 44 year drought obviously, but the expectation to win it.

David King has no idea about statistical probability, then.

We are playing our most attacking football since probably 2013. We are playing our best football since maybe 2011.

We started the year fairly average, and now coming home hot. That in itself makes a nice change.

But in hardly any year does it take a "freak occurence" for a team not to win the premiership. The best team (and there is a good case we currently are the best team) almost always has a lower chance of winning the premiership than the combined chance of any other of the 7 finalists winning it.

Imagine Geelong have a very generous 75% chance of winning each final. They are hugely favourable odds!

Well that equates to a 42% chance of winning all three. Less than chance.

Clearly a "freak occurence" is not required for a 42% likelihood not to happen. And that is, as stated, massively inflating our odds in each individual final to get that over-inflated likelihood.

So huge favourites in all 3 finals (we would not be 75% chance against the teams we will be facing), yet a 58% chance someone else will be premier in that circumstance.

We are a very good shot, but still more like probabilistically that another team wins the flag.

We probably have the best chances assessed against each indivual opponent - but that isn't how it works.

The "best" team is almost always less likely to win it than the total chances of someone else taking it.

The odds of #1 winning it all are less than the odds of #2-8 winning it. Almost always, to be safe - years like 2000 maybe the exception. Maybe.

Not to mention there are some very good teams this season, and arguments we aren't even the best or if we are, we aren't that far ahead.

David King is an idiot - no freak occurrence required for Geelong to not be premiers. Media types always get seduced into assessing the "best teams" chances totally devoid of actual context.

Anything can happen, and the odds are almost always against any given team in any given year winning the flag.

Lid stays very firmly on, because in sport anything can happen no matter how good you are - we are as good a chance as any other team, though. Just maybe not the sum total of all other finalists.

Whatever happens, it's nice for Geelong to be playing football that is fun to watch again.

 

[goyoucatters]

David King has no idea about statistical probability, then.

We are playing our most attacking football since probably 2013. We are playing our best football since maybe 2011.

We started the year fairly average, and now coming home hot. That in itself makes a nice change.

But in hardly any year does it take a "freak occurence" for a team not to win the premiership. The best team (and there is a good case we currently are the best team) almost always has a lower chance of winning the premiership than the combined chance of any other of the 7 finalists winning it.

Imagine Geelong have a very generous 75% chance of winning each final. They are hugely favourable odds!

Well that equates to a 42% chance of winning all three. Less than chance.

Clearly a "freak occurence" is not required for a 42% likelihood not to happen. And that is, as stated, massively inflating our odds in each individual final to get that over-inflated likelihood.

So huge favourites in all 3 finals (we would not be 75% chance against the teams we will be facing), yet a 58% chance someone else will be premier in that circumstance.

We are a very good shot, but still more like probabilistically that another team wins the flag.

We probably have the best chances assessed against each indivual opponent - but that isn't how it works.

The "best" team is almost always less likely to win it than the total chances of someone else taking it.

The odds of #1 winning it all are less than the odds of #2-8 winning it. Almost always, to be safe - years like 2000 maybe the exception. Maybe.

Not to mention there are some very good teams this season, and arguments we aren't even the best or if we are, that far ahead.

David King is an idiot - no freak occurrence required for Geelong to not be premiers. Media types always get seduced into assessing the "best teams" chances totally devoid of actual context.

Anything can happen, and the odds are almost always against any given team in any given year winning the flag.

Lid stays very firmly on, because in sport anything can happen no matter how good you are - we are as good a chance as any other team, though. Just maybe not the sum total of all other finalists.

Whatever happens, it's nice for Geelong to be playing football that is fun to watch again.

All entirely true. And yet more solid evidence for why the 'flag or flop' narrative is simply emotive nonsense.

 

[GeelongFTW]

I feel set shot % will be reduced because of more attacking game plan= more tired legs= worse/more misses.

Completely negated by more opportunities/ 7 point plays, however.

But There's no harm in spending the bye week just focussing on set shots until its second nature. I'd focus heavily on non-forwards because they may only get 1-2 chances they need to make count. I'm thinking of guys like Blitz, Henry, 2E even stewart/kolo just in case