The Otherworldly Circus - The America Thread

[bobs head soup]

Tay Tay is listed at 500:1. How would we assess her chances? Worth a dollar?

Put your house on it brother.

You probably lose the house, but that's gotta be outweighed by the slim chance of having enough for 500 houses.

Irrefutable punters logic.

 

[Werewolf]

There's a bit of chatter that Trump will drop out. He's mostly in this for himself, and he'll lose less face if he quits rather than gets beaten.

His whole career has been about quitting and reinventing himself.

His ego won't allow that. Plus he still has a good chance of winning the election.

 

[Freshwater]

That is both depressing and spot on. As much as I’m cynical about politicians I’m not actually cynical about life. Americans still have their three founding documents that are still ‘the last best hope’ and are as relevant as ever and the best indicator of whether a party or individual is off course. And three quarters of the country can go off course and not subscribe to them anymore but it doesn’t make the ideals wrong. And we in Australia still have them, not in law but in spirit and hope. There has been some wasted time on here worrying about Democrats v Republicans or in Australia Lab v Lib. And you can include England too, regardless of which party is in there is this push for flooding the country with cheap labour, overcrowding the cities, driving down wages, making it harder for young ones to buy a home, over regulation of everything, expensive energy etc. Trump isn’t the answer, but people have had it up to their eyeballs with the political class in the last 20 years, I can’t think of one I admire? and like Brexit in England it’s a big FU to our overlords.

 

[bresker]

I’ve spent 20 years supporting a very small independent school in regional Victoria that parents from doctors to bricklayers were able to send their kids to. It was an earthy and classical style education. We did our best to keep costs low for families, took strain off Vic gov, high commitment community m and ‘buy in’ from families. With a low money, got great outcomes, successful kids.
So that part looks good to me. Creates competition between schools, constant improvement, better university and work ready kids.

Is it a Steiner school ? You're giving me vibes

 

[Norm De Guerre]

Former bikini model, cake baker and professional coattail rider has some thoughts on Kamala Harris' career...

 

[yebach]

Not much has changed in 30 years.

 

[yebach]

For those who know politics better than I do.

What would happen both here and in the US if majority votes went to Independent candidates?

 

[geoffjennings79]

For those who know politics better than I do.

What would happen both here and in the US if majority votes went to Independent candidates?

What do you mean by majority votes (here)?
Preferential voting means you could have several million Australians giving their first preference to a non-ALP/LNP candidate, and yet still not result in a single seat, or very few. It's all about distribution of votes.
States is similar, due to the electoral college numbers in each state, but more likelihood of gaining some electors in a state if a large proportion of people who actually vote cast their votes for a non-Dem/GOP candidate.
Also easier to get independents here in the senate due to the low percentage requited, as opposed to House of Reps.

United States Electoral College - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[dogwatch]

For those who know politics better than I do.

What would happen both here and in the US if majority votes went to Independent candidates?

No idea how it might work out in the USA but in Australia:

In the incredibly unlikely event that there was a majority of loosely aligned independents there would be a week or two of horse trading among themselves and with the major parties to see what sort of minority government could be cobbled together. The Governor-General would almost certainly stick her nose into it and ask the most likely power grouping if they think they can form government. If they can't she would then have discussions with the next most likely power grouping and so on. When they think they have a working solution they go to the Governor-General to seek formalisation of power and swearing in of ministers and conferral of the many forms of authority that goes with being "in government".

While the chances of independents being in the majority after the coming Federal election is so small that you can ignore the prospect, it is possible - maybe even probable - that we will see a minority government that will depend on the cross benches for legislative support, opposition to motions of no-confidence and guarantee of supply. Exactly what that would entail in trade-offs is anybody's guess. It would depend very much on which party is in precarious power and who the prime movers and shakers are among the independents. The only certainty is that deals would be done.

Bear in mind that many of the current batch of "Teals" came from conservative (Liberal Party) backgrounds so it's no guarantee that because they are progressive they would support Albanese if the ALP and L/NP were about equal on seats.

 

[geoffjennings79]

No idea how it might work out in the USA but in Australia:

In the incredibly unlikely event that there was a majority of loosely aligned independents there would be a week or two of horse trading among themselves and with the major parties to see what sort of minority government could be cobbled together. The Governor-General would almost certainly stick her nose into it and ask the most likely power grouping if they think they can form government. If they can't she would then have discussions with the next most likely power grouping and so on. When they think they have a working solution they go to the Governor-General to seek formalisation of power and swearing in of ministers and conferral of the many forms of authority that goes with being "in government".

While the chances of independents being in the majority after the coming Federal election is so small that you can ignore the prospect, it is possible - maybe even probable - that we will see a minority government that will depend on the cross benches for legislative support, opposition to motions of no-confidence and guarantee of supply. Exactly what that would entail in trade-offs is anybody's guess. It would depend very much on which party is in precarious power and who the prime movers and shakers are among the independents. The only certainty is that deals would be done.

Bear in mind that many of the current batch of "Teals" came from conservative (Liberal Party) backgrounds so it's no guarantee that because they are progressive they would support Albanese if the ALP and L/NP were about equal on seats.

Largely agree dw, although given the level of disdain expressed towards the Libs by formerly Lib background teals and their major backer Simon Holmes-a-court, it will be fascinating how a minority govt scenario would play out as both major parties sell their grab for power.

Even Lambie and Pocock, while not king(queen)-makers per se, seem to more often than not express sympathy for progressive policies/outcomes (Pocock) and/or outright hostility to LNP 'policies' (thought bubbles!) from Lambie.

While not fully progressive in nature, the current composition of both houses seems more sympathetic to centre left policies atm (teals with climate stance, etc), making it harder for an LNP minority govt situation.

But of course politics can change on a daily basis as recent decades have shown, and it only takes a few, or even just 1, pollie to swap sides/stuff up to throw the system into uncertainty, leading to potential govt paralysis, as we both, and many/most/all others on here know.

The next election, and the swings and roundabouts between now and then will be fascinating. Or depressing. Or both.

 

[Next Waiting]

No idea how it might work out in the USA but in Australia:

In the incredibly unlikely event that there was a majority of loosely aligned independents there would be a week or two of horse trading among themselves and with the major parties to see what sort of minority government could be cobbled together. The Governor-General would almost certainly stick her nose into it and ask the most likely power grouping if they think they can form government. If they can't she would then have discussions with the next most likely power grouping and so on. When they think they have a working solution they go to the Governor-General to seek formalisation of power and swearing in of ministers and conferral of the many forms of authority that goes with being "in government".

While the chances of independents being in the majority after the coming Federal election is so small that you can ignore the prospect, it is possible - maybe even probable - that we will see a minority government that will depend on the cross benches for legislative support, opposition to motions of no-confidence and guarantee of supply. Exactly what that would entail in trade-offs is anybody's guess. It would depend very much on which party is in precarious power and who the prime movers and shakers are among the independents. The only certainty is that deals would be done.

Bear in mind that many of the current batch of "Teals" came from conservative (Liberal Party) backgrounds so it's no guarantee that because they are progressive they would support Albanese if the ALP and L/NP were about equal on seats.

You tend to get this in Aotearoa with proportional representation. It's rare now that a party will win an election outright so you tend to get minority governments supported by other parties to allow a government to be formed with supply and confidence guarantees thrashed out through horse trading of policy concessions and cabinet/ministerial appointments for supporting party members.

Proportional representation came in via a national referendum to address the issue of parties not winning the popular vote but being able to form a majority government on the basis of electoral seats won under a first past the post system.

 

[wayniac]

Amazing how the Langer vote has gone from the memory of people. Indeed the actual questioning of our poorly designed preferential voting system is evident in the voting populace.

I worked with an election scrutineer 12 years ago and he told me that a Langer vote would not be counted as informal.

That kind of nonsense coming from an electoral officer demonstrates clearly how bad our uniparty voting system has evolved.

Langer vote - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The PTB stole one of your basic rights from under your nose.

Amnesty International described Langer as Australia's first prisoner of conscience for over 20 years, alleging that his imprisonment was a breach of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.

 

[Freshwater]

Amazing how the Langer vote has gone from the memory of people. Indeed the actual questioning of our poorly designed preferential voting system is evident in the voting populace.

I worked with an election scrutineer 12 years ago and he told me that a Langer vote would not be counted as informal.

That kind of nonsense coming from an electoral officer demonstrates clearly how bad our uniparty voting system has evolved.

Langer vote - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The PTB stole one of your basic rights from under your nose.

Amnesty International described Langer as Australia's first prisoner of conscience for over 20 years, alleging that his imprisonment was a breach of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.

The irony for Langer was that he was a Maoist/Marxist and if those type of regimes govern he wouldn’t be the only political prisoner.

 

[wayniac]

The irony for Langer was that he was a Maoist/Marxist and if those type of regimes govern he wouldn’t be the only political prisoner.

I didn't agree with his views, however, he was spot on about our electoral system.

 

[dogwatch]

Amazing how the Langer vote has gone from the memory of people. Indeed the actual questioning of our poorly designed preferential voting system is evident in the voting populace.

I worked with an election scrutineer 12 years ago and he told me that a Langer vote would not be counted as informal.

That kind of nonsense coming from an electoral officer demonstrates clearly how bad our uniparty voting system has evolved.

Langer vote - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The PTB stole one of your basic rights from under your nose.

Amnesty International described Langer as Australia's first prisoner of conscience for over 20 years, alleging that his imprisonment was a breach of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.

Our electoral system is by no means perfect but it's still a very good system by world standards. I'm not aware of a better one in a large, modern, liberal democracy. But I'm happy to be educated if you know of some. Importantly it's been able to adapt and evolve without the need for too many shouty voices over the years. Langer was one such shouty voice and he was ultimately vindicated.

However I do find it amusing that you're championing the case of Albert Langer who I wouldn't have expected would be one of your chosen political bedfellows. Or an activist you'd support.

He was a left wing (far left, in fact) enfant terrible when I was an undergraduate. He was treated by the media and the mainstream politicians the way we'd treat a terrorist these days. He was very good at grabbing headlines and was always prepared to push the boundaries of convention and the law - and even go to gaol as we have seen - to bring attention to the causes he pursued. Good on him for that.

The kerfuffle around the Langer vote in the 90s was noteworthy in Australian electoral history. Despite that, it's not much more than a hiccup in the continuous arc of rational electoral legislation over the last century. Although I'm an Amnesty contributor and supporter I think their description of him as a "prisoner of conscience" is overblown when you put his 3 weeks in gaol alongside the privations endured by Mandela, Navalny and many others for what they believed in. They simply aren't comparable.

 

[Next Waiting]

I voted against mmp in the Aotearoa referendum and also against fpp. I voted for the preferential system that Australia has on the basis that you would have to be aware of and/or scrutinise every candidate to make an informed choice when it came to allocating them a preference.

I may have been naive. Factions are not really a thing across the ditch as they are here. The pre-selection wrangling and all that, well not on the same scale at least.

The problem I had with mmp was essentially mps getting into parliament when they hadn't been scrutinised by an electorate. They could get in by virtue of 1 electoral seat to the party and then meeting a 5% national vote threshold. That would then allow another 5 or so in from a ranked party list....decided by the party.

However, under the mmp system, it's possible that you could have 10 parties who achieve 4.9% of the popular vote but not win an electoral seat, effectively invalidating/disenfranchising the national vote. In that scenario, 49% of the national vote would not be represented in parliament. 100% of the mps would represent 51% of the national vote. Unlikely but possible.

Interestingly, only 8-10% of us voted for the preferential system in the referendum. MMP was the electoral commission's recommendation and received the most publicity and ultimately won in a landslide (close to 60% choice as the way forward). I was never convinced that the alternative options were adequately explored. Seemed like a fait accompli.

 

[bobs head soup]

3 seperate polls in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania now have Harris leading by 4 points and widening.

Markets now have Harris $1.25, Trump $3.75.

Trump's next moves should be, ahem, interesting.

 

[King Harold]

3 seperate polls in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania now have Harris leading by 4 points and widening.

Markets now have Harris $1.25, Trump $3.75.

Trump's next moves should be, ahem, interesting.

Have you heard the latest fantastical thing that popped into his head about a near helicopter crash ?

Everything about the story is wrong , including the people he includes.
This idiot is totally delusional and should be in an institution.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

3 seperate polls in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania now have Harris leading by 4 points and widening.

Markets now have Harris $1.25, Trump $3.75.

Trump's next moves should be, ahem, interesting.

"These are fake polls, I'm well ahead everywhere"

 

[LittleG]

"These are fake polls, I'm well ahead everywhere"

“I have increased my share of white male voters.” - Trump


Note: More women than men vote and his numbers with that larger group are falling. Almost the entire change in numbers is from women.

IF things don’t change for Trump, GOP will lose North Carolina on top of what Biden won last time.

 

[Werewolf]

I've said it before, Republicans would be at least 10% ahead if they had a sensible position on abortion.

That said, both major parties are two sides of the same coin (and bribed by lobbyists).

It's not much of a democracy when the minor parties can't get a look in.

 

[LittleG]

I've said it before, Republicans would be at least 10% ahead if they had a sensible position on abortion.

That said, both major parties are two sides of the same coin (and bribed by lobbyists).

It's not much of a democracy when the minor parties can't get a look in.

GOP use to be the party of personal freedoms. Their abortion policy flies directly against that position. Completely ceding that issue to Democrats.

Our system is one of the best Democratic systems in the world.
We could improve it by allowing 1,2,3,3,3,3, etc. But that could then become first past the post IF everyone did it. I would prefer only allowing the last two preferences to be equal but then allocating that vote if one of the equal choices gets eliminated in 2 party preferred.

 

[Norm De Guerre]

Meanwhile...

Behind the curtain and away from a complicit media, that is more intent on perpetuating the circus that is Donald J. Trump for profit. Joe Biden continues to take a giant shit on his legacy.

The shining example of democracy has approved the 'sale' of 6,500 JDAM guidance kits and bombs to Israel so that they can more precisely destroy schools and hospitals in Gaza with absolute impunity.

One must be mindful of collateral damage (such a lovely benign euphemism!) after all.

But, sure. This conflict is really about avenging the horror of Oct. 3, destroying Hamas and freeing the hostages and not what it really is. A forced relocation of an entire people and a land grab.

 

[Next Waiting]

Meanwhile...

Behind the curtain and away from a complicit media, that is more intent on perpetuating the circus that is Donald J. Trump for profit. Joe Biden continues to take a giant shit on his legacy.

The shining example of democracy has approved the 'sale' of 6,500 JDAM guidance kits and bombs to Israel so that they can more precisely destroy schools and hospitals in Gaza with absolute impunity.

One must be mindful of collateral damage (such a lovely benign euphemism!) after all.

But, sure. This conflict is really about avenging the horror of Oct. 3, destroying Hamas and freeing the hostages and not what it really is. A forced relocation of an entire people and a land grab.

The entrenched generational hatred that these attacks perpetuate is not hard to understand.

The girl searching for what's left of her father today is tomorrow's matriarch of a family of suicide bombers intent on revenge. One day she will rock a cradle that shapes that part of the world.

 

[Mofra]

The entrenched generational hatred that these attacks perpetuate is not hard to understand.

The girl searching for what's left of her father today is tomorrow's matriarch of a family of suicide bombers intent on revenge. One day she will rock a cradle that shapes that part of the world.

The generational hated started in the 40s. Whole Palestinian villages wiped out.
The current round of violence is sadly not new