Norm De Guerre
Left of the dial.
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- Mar 27, 2004
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Theres way too much national treasure to skim off the table on the table for it not to.Does anyone was thoughts on the likelihood of AUKUS subs succeeding now? Obviously we are along way down the list of getting the Virginia Class (intermediary) sub, even more so now under an isolationist partner. But there is a conceivable chance this whole Nuclear Sub bipartisan plan is thrown in the bin with the entire world order being scrambled by Trump. At least for the next 4 years.
We'll see Trump do what he does, he'll use the same playbook on us as he did with NATO countries and ramp up the pressure for us to i crease defence spending. Most of which of course will flow back to the likes of Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and Northrop Grumman.
I dont see anything changing in regards to the SSN program as the plan is for us to spend lots of money on helping increase build capacity in US Sub Yards. The transfer 3-5 existing or new build US subs to the RAN and for the UK and Aus part of AUKUS to develop a joint follow on SSN. This of course will be with the help of the aforementioned US defence contractors.
The other plank of the whole alliance that gets much less talk is the partners basing submarines out of Sterling in W.A and well out of reach of Chinese attacks on the places that the USN would have subs like Guam. For all of his faux anti-establishment rhetoric Trump is a capitalist to his very core and and as soon as somebody explains that a significant part of the $300 billion that we have budgeted to cover the 40+ life cycle of the submarine program will flow back to the US he will get behind an alliance. That he wouldn't otherwise give a **** about.
The U.S for all intents and purposes will continue to draw down its forces in Europe.
But I don't think for a second that Trump is the Dove of Peace that his dumber supporters would have us believe. Or that the US is going to stop the strategic pivot into the pacific that they have been undertaking since the Obama administration. Trump didnt set off a trade war with China in his first term or make tariffs the central plank of his foreign policy this election because he wanted to bring cheap T-shirts back to the US. Other than some high profile tinkering around the edges that Neoliberal boat has sailed or driven across the border into Mexico.
He'll continue to escalate U.S foreign policy objectives trying to contain Chinas influence, force projection beyond its territorial waters and its ability to trade, as it challenges U.S economic, strategic hegemony and the dominance of the USD as the worlds trading currency.
Only a dolt would believe that now that he has stamped his dominance on US politics that he won't turn his focus towards trying to do the same with China.
Trump may project an America first isolationism, but like most things he does it's an expedient facade. The reality is that the forces that have always driven American capitalism and foreign policy are the same forces that drive Trump. Power and money. Its why the US is intent on stopping that power shifting any further into Chinas orbit.
I dont think that we see a direct conflict between the US and China during Trump's term. But we will see a continuation of policy that makes it all but inevitable in the 20 years or so.
This is why we are willing to spend $300 billion on developing a local submarine manufacturing and sustainment industry.
Whether we can actually pull it off. Or we just end up buy 8 Virginia's or UK built follow on SSN of the shelf.
Remains to be seen.