Analysis The Rebuild Of Essendon And North Melbourne And Their Future Prospects

[JayJ20]

Apart from the time he refused to play on Charlie Cameron and spat the dummy I presume?

That was never confirmed. Saad was a great player for us and gave us everything he had every week.

 

[Okra]

Assuming North get pick 1, what would be an acceptable way to split it into two or more picks?

Is a rebuilding club better off with pick 1 on its own or with two bites of the cherry later in the top 10?

For example, is pick 1 more appealing than picks 5 and 6? Or vice versa?

Just take Jason Horne and be done with it.

 

[Sphynx]

I mean, Simpkin and Larkey were taken in the same draft as McGrath, Ridley and Draper while Zurhaar is the same age as the 2016 crop (23 in a fortnight) but was rookied in 2017.

McKay was in the 2015 draft so same as Parish/Francis.

Stephenson, Bonar and LDU were all taken in the 2017 draft so I don't see how one year difference makes any impact other than attempting to cherry pick a subsection of your list.

Even then, Jones, Ham, Guelfi and Zerk-Thatcher (drafted between 17-19 for us) all played yesterday while Caldwell and Mosquito are injured. Now of that group Caldwell, Jones, Ham and Mosquito might end up being very good players, but if nothing else, we have six players in that three-year span that at least look like being valued role players who are getting games on merit and will likely complement the star power drafted the two years either side of them.

Yes, I understand that.

But there's a lot of throw away lines in the previous post I quoted. Such as " I also wouldn't trade our 1st and 2nd years for North's. Cox, Perkins, Reid & Jones I think are excellent prospects. Nick Bryan (2nd year ruck) looks set to get an AFL debut very soon. Eyres & Brand may be something but are your typical unproven first years KP's. "

It's easy to list every kid you have taken in the previous 2 years....

North still has Pick #2 and Pick #13 from last year as well. It's not as if we brought in a bunch of plodders either.

I'd be utterly shocked if there ends up being a better midfielder out of the 2020 draft than Powell. That includes Phillips and Perkins.

 

[eth-dog]

We're at an interesting stage. I think we need another key defender because as good as Reid could be, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher

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Brandon...

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148.5

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12.0

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7.0

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5.0

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3.0

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0.0

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124.0

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11.5

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3.0

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148.5

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has really struggled to come on the past two years and looks vulnerable to lose his spot once Stewart is back. Cody Brand could be that but he's been iffy this pre-season and will need to improve a lot if he's going to last longer than the 3-4 years we usually give draftees.

Nick Bryan looks very promising as a ruck but we need to see how he goes forward as well. Harrison Jones is an exciting prospect, but we need him to find out how to hit the scoreboard more often. Either way, we certainly went hard at the KPP's this last draft plus Perkins and Cox as inside and outside mid prospects.

We certainly need to hit the mids hard soon.

 

[Too_many_talls]

I reckon if you go back through the last 10 drafts and had a choice between the best player drafted in the top three (#1 pick) versus any two players drafted 6-15 (two picks somewhere in the top 10), it's not at all obvious that you're better off with just the one earlier pick. Of course, this assumes that you pick wisely with those selections.

Maybe clubs think #1 is a safe bet but again, that's not really the case either.

I agree with you and think North should certainly look closely if they could get two in the top 10 (and hopefully one in the top 5). You don't have to look any further than last year for justification. While we have drafted some promising midfielders and, yes, it's early to tell, Powell looks the pick of them and he came at 13. I'd be happy if we can add another midfielder and a forward from the top 10. Supporters seem to get the high pick saviour complex (how many "generational players" can there be in the draft if there's one every year?), but for every Matt Rowell there's a Cam Rayner or Bryce Gibbs - not a bust, but also not the messiah.

 

[citizen-erased]

We're at an interesting stage. I think we need another key defender because as good as Reid could be, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher has really struggled to come on the past two years and looks vulnerable to lose his spot once Stewart is back. Cody Brand could be that but he's been iffy this pre-season and will need to improve a lot if he's going to last longer than the 3-4 years we usually give draftees.

Nick Bryan looks very promising as a ruck but we need to see how he goes forward as well. Harrison Jones is an exciting prospect, but we need him to find out how to hit the scoreboard more often. Either way, we certainly went hard at the KPP's this last draft plus Perkins and Cox as inside and outside mid prospects.

We certainly need to hit the mids hard soon.

1st MSD pick & ND pick need to go on some mids.
Ideally ones with good inside, ball winning traits.

We should have held Hartley. He may have been prone to giving away the odd free, but he was a strong body and a great kick.
With some solid kids in Ridley, Francis & Reid, and the rebirth of Laverde as a defender, Hartley would have been a handy body.
A 25-26yo big key back would be good.

Similar with key forward
Solid contested marking KPF would be ideal with Hooker a good chance to retire. Would love Fogarty, but i reckon he'll stay at Adelaide.

 

[Petrify]

We should have held Hartley. He may have been prone to giving away the odd free, but he was a strong body and a great kick.
With some solid kids in Ridley, Francis & Reid, and the rebirth of Laverde as a defender, Hartley would have been a handy body.
A 25-26yo big key back would be good.

Hartley is 28 in a few months, and is worse than Ambrose who is 29. Getting rid of Hartley, who can barely get a game at Hawthorn, was a good move.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

I don't think Essendon are resigned to a ground zero rebuild the way North need to be.

I think Essendon probably think they could drop down for two years and bounce back to play finals while the likes of Heppell, Shiel, Tippa are still there.

North Melbourne on the other hand are 4-5 years away. I'd be surprised if anyone born before 1995 is part of the next North side that plays finals.

JT_the_Man Seems about right?

 

[maskmcgee]

That was never confirmed. Saad was a great player for us and gave us everything he had every week.

Lol what a joke. Saad is the most overplayed player in history. Hind is twice the player he ever was.

 

[NicW]

Lol what a joke. Saad is the most overplayed player in history. Hind is twice the player he ever was.

How do you get overplayed?
Too many games?

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Probably need to compare North's rebuild to Adelaide tbh. Essendon still had some quality/elite players on their list without totally gutting it and starting again.

Roos seem to be in the same boat as the Crows realistically

 

[Gavin Excell]

It’s been amazing the impact of bringing in quality draft picks with Essendon. Moving on Daniher seems to have been a symbolic moment.

I’d imagine Dons fans would be looking forward to the next few years

 

[BuffDog]

Good signs for the Dons though still really need that one big mid and a KPF before they can think about taking the next step (winning finals).

Still 3-4 years off challenging so I’d suspect we’d be making a big play for Ben King

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7.2

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5.0

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2.2

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3.5

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0.5

3star

G

1.3

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D

7.5

2star

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5.6

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1.9

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3.6

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0.3

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1.5

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6.8

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4.4

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2.4

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3.2

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0.2

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1.0

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in that period.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Essendon could be a game inside the eight by the end of today.

 

[carnthedons]

Essendon could be a game inside the eight by the end of today.

Game and significant percentage inside (we won’t, we’ll lose to the giants)

 

[Shane Heard]

We got problems to fix

premiership sides need everything running along like a full powered V8

we’re like a standard V6 with the odd turbo injection here and there

 

[Fire]

I'd rather be in our position; though I wouldn't have said that earlier in the year. It's been exciting watching things start to click, after being one of the worst rabbles in living memory.

 

[Jobe Watson]

Interesting thread to revisit.

I thought at the start of the year that North would be ahead of us, considering how many high draft picks they've had in recent years by constantly finishing near the bottom of the ladder. Essendon were just starting a list reset and I think most Bombers fans were expecting a bottom 6 finish at best after losing two of our best players in the off-season. Instead, North are finishing the season as the worst team in the league while Essendon are a likely finals chance.

I think most would say that Essendon are in a better position now going forward. Really shows how important it is to nail your recruiting.

 

[Macca18]

North are the best wooden spooner in 45 years, apparently.

A great title to have so basically making this thread a non-contest.

 

[B4Bear]

North are the best wooden spooner in 45 years, apparently.

A great title to have so basically making this thread a non-contest.

So with your comment I guess we can look forward to you being 2021 premiers.

 

[Psicosis]

Things are never as bad as they seem, surprised Dons didn’t learn that after last years off season

 

[Macca18]

So with your comment I guess we can look forward to you being 2021 premiers.

No certainty to even make the finals let alone get that far.

I was giving North a compliment. Best wooden spooner in 45 years is some significant praise.

 

[windyhill]

Hooker , Ambrose and more than likely Hurley retiring leaves a nice gap in the salary cap to fill.

 

[Turnover]

Look forward to the North v Dons 2022 granny in Auckland.

 

[Instincts]

Must be honest here. Ben Rutten

Ben Rutten

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41

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13.4

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6.3

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1.3

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No current season stats available

D

10.6

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6.2

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4.4

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3.6

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1.0

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has changed the scene at Essendon a lot.


I thought Worsfold was doing an ok job with an ordinary list. I was proven wrong. I think I had them pinged for about 15th or something this year, the only player that they had who left whilst being impactful in the 24 months prior to leaving was Saad. Either way they nailed they're decisions. Cox and Perkins will be in the Josh Kelly tier of player I think but to replace Saad immediately at such a low price was excellent.

Rutten has also gotten the best out of his players, particularly that midfield group with all of the main 3 being in career best form.

North on the other hand I thought would finish second last with 6 wins. Should be only .5 wins off of that guess. In the first half of the season North was one of the worst teams I have ever watched but they're a ok side now with a lot of their talented players turning it on (Thomas, Zurhaar, Larkey and LDU). North also had a really good 2020 draft haul in my opinion. Phillips was a controversial pick but is classy and should come firing out next season with better match-day fitness. Powell was the shining light in the dark days, gets the ball, disposes of it really well and applies defensive pressure and will be a benchmark mid. Lazzaro has shown his afterburners and effort in match days and Eddie Ford is a great pseudo-tall forward prospect.

Both teams are in great positions for the future, still having areas needing to be addressed but not too much of a problem that can be dealt with easily. I'd have Essendon ahead just because they've been better this year but I'd say things can change.