Analysis The Rebuilds of Carlton and Fremantle and their future prospects

[poshman]

It’s probably not the right thread so I’ll leave it at this.

I’m trying to be as unbiased as possible.

If the results are reversed and Carlton were to lose my points still stand re; free kicks and outcome - it’s more the when than the where. A free kick can be as impactful on the game no matter where it is paid.

You’re watching the wrong game if you think it can be simplified to A or B

There’s far too much complexity & nuance to dumb it down to that level.
Hope that answers your question.

In the simplest of terms, would I be pissed if it was Carlton loosing the match in the same circumstances?

Most definitely.

But in 120 minutes of football to say that a singular 30 seconds, regardless of what occurred, played a more significant outcome in determining the result of the game than the remaining balance is just incorrect.

You have a right to feel aggrieved, your team lost. What occurred in the last minute of the game wasn’t the singular determiner of why it did.

Ah yes so a simple question based on a large claim of yours. You claim that one free kick is not more influential than another. I have show it is. While trying to not be biased you are showing yours as it is clear as day that some are more influential than others. In this case it really is as simple as A or B as we are not talking about the outcome of the game, we are addressing your claim that some free kicks are not more influential than others.

It is clear they are and to pretend otherwise is foolish.

I will give another example as you have refused to answer a clear question.

If you were guaranteed 15 free kicks a game and could choose where they were awarded would you choose 'random' or would you select where they were awarded?

Remember we are addressing the absurd claim that some free kicks are not more influential than others. Nothing else.

Let's see if you are willing to answer. It is an easy question.

I also take your refusal to answer the previous question as an admission by default that you know the answer to the question, but are refusing to acknowledge it due to bias. So thank you for your answer by omission. I appreciate the dialogue.

 

[poshman]

Perth has become more isolated in recent years thanks to the cost of living crisis making it very expensive to travel to and from.
We're seeing these sorts of things in the local newspaper as a result.

It has far more to do with Covid and the policies around it than cost of living. States across the country became isolationist and in most cases the public rewarded the politicians for those policies. Sad time.

 

[blueboy25]

Perth has become more isolated in recent years thanks to the cost of living crisis making it very expensive to travel to and from.
We're seeing these sorts of things in the local newspaper as a result.

I think its more to do with the number of people buying and reading newspapers is falling rapidly so they will do anything to get people talking about their headlines.

 

[OnceWeWereKings]

B: Weitering Pearce McGovern
HB: Saad Ryan Clark
C: Brayshaw Cripps Acres
HF: Walters Treacy Freddy
F: McKay Amiss Curnow
FOL: LJ Serong Cerra
IC: Young Newman Emmet Sharp

Maybe a bit too tall in the fwd line

That’s a pretty good mash up -

From a Carlton perspective I’d throw up the below as possible inclusions / considerations

These guys play -

Sam Walsh - He comes in for any of Young / Emmet / Sharp

TDK for Treacy - He plays second ruck, can come from the bench if not in the starting team, play another small forward, as you say, it’s probably top heavy.

Considerations / Alternatives -

Williams for any of Newman, Sharp or Emmett

O. Hollands for Sharp, Emmett

Motlop for Walters, Freddy

Martin (If fit, and that’s a big IF) for Walters, Freddy

Probably, need another pressure small forward - Carlton considerations would be Owies, Fogarty, Durdin. Don’t know Fremantles equivalents - Would be Schultz if he was still there

 

[OnceWeWereKings]

Ah yes so a simple question based on a large claim of yours. You claim that one free kick is not more influential than another. I have show it is. While trying to not be biased you are showing yours as it is clear as day that some are more influential than others. In this case it really is as simple as A or B as we are not talking about the outcome of the game, we are addressing your claim that some free kicks are not more influential than others.

It is clear they are and to pretend otherwise is foolish.

I will give another example as you have refused to answer a clear question.

If you were guaranteed 15 free kicks a game and could choose where they were awarded would you choose 'random' or would you select where they were awarded?

Remember we are addressing the absurd claim that some free kicks are not more influential than others. Nothing else.

Let's see if you are willing to answer. It is an easy question.

I also take your refusal to answer the previous question as an admission by default that you know the answer to the question, but are refusing to acknowledge it due to bias. So thank you for your answer by omission. I appreciate the dialogue.

I don’t believe I refused to answer anything.

I’d simply expressed a point of view in response to your post and the game being discussed.

It is an opinion, not right or wrong or any more correct than anyone else’s

What I’d tried to do is use context of this game and football games in general to make these points. Based on what occurs in any game at any time throughout a match, and with context to all the nuances that determine the result of the game itself.

From my perspective, your point and or question is based on isolating one aspect or nuance, in this case free kicks, from any of the others that determine the outcome.

My point is you can’t do that. It’s a make believe scenario, it’s not real.

Free kicks aren’t guaranteed, you don’t get to pick where you take them, so to ask for a response to this make believe scenario provides zero value to either your perspective or mine.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

I am really confused why you keep referring to last season. The body of evidence on your midfield is this season. It’s a good midfield but not good enough against the best teams in the competition at the moment. I mean it’s not even a debate really.

Why rate Carlton’s midfield this season when you haven’t even seen it with their best player?
I mean of the teams you mentioned being better then Carlton’s if you took Brayshaw out of Freo, Green out of GWS, Rozee or Butters out of Port or Heeney out of Sydney then you would probably say the exact same thing about those sides.
Carlton don’t have the best midfield group but when fit it’s easily good enough to go head to head with any sides.

 

[poshman]

I think its more to do with the number of people buying and reading newspapers is falling rapidly so they will do anything to get people talking about their headlines.

Traditional media is dying - thankfully. What they fail to realise is that it is partly by their own hand.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Some free kicks are more influential than others, everyone knows that.

Would you rather get a free you shouldn't have 20m out straight in front or one on the wing? How you answer this will tell me a lot about your honesty on this matter.

Is Cripps on balance umpired favourably, against non vic teams and some of the lesser vic teams, yes. But that is only my opinion.

I'd rather get the free that wasn't called but should've been to Kennedy, at pretty much that location, about 1min earlier, when that blondie nonce wasn't even facing the play and held/blocked him from a run at the marking contest.
So we take what we can get, in lieu of that.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Who cares about 2023. You lost the clearances 44-27 vs freo. That is a smashing. Walsh will help no doubt, but not sure he will fix everything.
Your midfield is also fairly one paced.
Well done being 4 and 0 but you aren’t winning a premiership with the midfield depth you have now IMO.

Pies lost the clearance count on GF day.
It's not the deciding factor.

 

[poshman]

I'd rather get the free that wasn't called but should've been to Kennedy, at pretty much that location, about 1min earlier, when that blondie nonce wasn't even facing the play and held/blocked him from a run at the marking contest.
So we take what we can get, in lieu of that.

Another one unable to answer the question.

I did not make the claim that all free kicks have the same impact. That is what is being argued here, not ones missed, as I could bring up about four obvious one's missed against Carlton as well. That is pointless.

The claim by one of your lot was clear. I am arguing that claim successfully as no one seems willing to answer it directly. So thank you, by omission I will add you to the tally for in front of goal. The list is growing.

 

[The Lobbster]

Pies lost the clearance count on GF day.
It's not the deciding factor.

Whilst this is true, a 17 clearance difference should be enough to put a team away and Carlton should be wary of this. Not exactly doomsday but an interesting point. The reason Fremantle weren’t able to convert was a mix of young forwards, poor kicking inside 50 and the fact that Carlton defend well.

As for the state of both teams, the midfield is pretty even with Walsh back in (although this is a bit of an assumption), Carlton have better forwards and I’d give the edge to the Dockers in terms of defence (mainly on KPD depth). Both teams I think should play finals this year, with the Blues Prelim experience probably giving them the edge in ‘24. But the matchup in ‘25 could be very interesting if things continue.

 

[gungho]

Pies lost the clearance count on GF day.
It's not the deciding factor.

Not sure where you plucked that from but I checked footy wire and the pies won the clearances 44-38 on grand final day. I dare say if they had have lost them 44-27 (which Carlton did against Freo) they would not be premiers.

 

[gungho]

Why rate Carlton’s midfield this season when you haven’t even seen it with their best player?
I mean of the teams you mentioned being better then Carlton’s if you took Brayshaw out of Freo, Green out of GWS, Rozee or Butters out of Port or Heeney out of Sydney then you would probably say the exact same thing about those sides.
Carlton don’t have the best midfield group but when fitb.

Let’s not overstate the clearance ‘issue’.

It’s something to be wary of but hardly a concern.

It might have been a concern had Carlton started the year slowly, but they’re 4-0.

They’re literally finding different ways to win without relying on the main strength that saw them make a prelim in 2023.

That’s a massive positive rather than the opposite as some are trying to push.

Always amusing how some fans become so fixated on a particular stat, they lose all perspective.

They haven’t lost the ability to win a clearance over the course of a few months.

If you’re not worried about your midfield you are just papering over the cracks. Not every team is going to put a 19 year old third gamer on Charlie.

 

[OnceWeWereKings]

Another one unable to answer the question.

I did not make the claim that all free kicks have the same impact. That is what is being argued here, not ones missed, as I could bring up about four obvious one's missed against Carlton as well. That is pointless.

The claim by one of your lot was clear. I am arguing that claim successfully as no one seems willing to answer it directly. So thank you, by omission I will add you to the tally for in front of goal. The list is growing.

We have a self appointed winner here folks.

Post any opinions / points of view and poshman will make a determination on the outcome of such and declare themselves as the “winner”

You may even get added to an imaginary list.

Just bizarre.

 

[Foucault1989]

You’re dreaming. Your midfield (even with Walsh) is a step below freo. And freo are a step below GWS, Port, and Sydney (when they are fit).

No denying the Freo midfield beat our midfield soundly on the weekend. Bradshaw, Serong and Young are the real deal, coupled with Amiss up forward, Clark off half back and Jackson in the ruck. You've drafted really well and built the foundations of your list. I respect that.

 

[Foucault1989]

B: Weitering Pearce McGovern
HB: Saad Ryan Clark
C: Brayshaw Cripps Acres
HF: Walters Treacy Freddy
F: McKay Amiss Curnow
FOL: LJ Serong Cerra
IC: Young Newman Emmet Sharp

Maybe a bit too tall in the fwd line

I reckon Walsh would get a run over Emmett and Sharp mate. Just a thought.

 

[poshman]

We have a self appointed winner here folks.

Post any opinions / points of view and poshman will make a determination on the outcome of such and declare themselves as the “winner”

You may even get added to an imaginary list.

Just bizarre.

You appointed me the winner or at least disproved a nonsense claim. So thank you for that.

What is truly bizarre are people claiming one free kick is not more important than another and then when asked a simple question they refuse to answer.

Bizarro dissonance at its finest.

I will try once more for those who think that all free kicks are equal.

Which would you prefer:

A) Free kick 20m out straight in front.

B) Free kick on centre wing.

C) No answer because it goes against previous absurd claim.


This requires no nuance as we are disproving a foolish claim. Simple.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

You appointed me the winner or at least disproved a nonsense claim. So thank you for that.

What is truly bizarre are people claiming one free kick is not more important than another and then when asked a simple question they refuse to answer.

Bizarro dissonance at its finest.

I will try once more for those who think that all free kicks are equal.

Which would you prefer:

A) Free kick 20m out straight in front.

B) Free kick on centre wing.

C) No answer because it goes against previous absurd claim.


This requires no nuance as we are disproving a foolish claim. Simple.

I agree. The 6 free kicks for Freo which directly resulted in goals were more impactful than any of
Carlton's free kicks which mostly occurred further afield.

Glad the umps could even things up at the end of the game so both teams had a fair go for the match.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Not sure where you plucked that from but I checked footy wire and the pies won the clearances 44-38 on grand final day. I dare say if they had have lost them 44-27 (which Carlton did against Freo) they would not be premiers.

I gave it a subtle highlight in case you missed it

 

[Jeremias]

If you’re not worried about your midfield you are just papering over the cracks.

The midfield needs to improve, as do other areas of the park.

I prefer to look at things in their entirety rather than fixate on one particular statistic that doesn't necessarily determine the outcome of a game.

Each to their own, however.

Not every team is going to put a 19 year old third gamer on Charlie.

You talking about back to back reigning Coleman medalist Charlie Curnow?

Yeah I'm pretty sure he's played on more than just 19 year old third gamers.

 

[OnceWeWereKings]

You appointed me the winner or at least disproved a nonsense claim. So thank you for that.

What is truly bizarre are people claiming one free kick is not more important than another and then when asked a simple question they refuse to answer.

Bizarro dissonance at its finest.

I will try once more for those who think that all free kicks are equal.

Which would you prefer:

A) Free kick 20m out straight in front.

B) Free kick on centre wing.

C) No answer because it goes against previous absurd claim.


This requires no nuance as we are disproving a foolish claim. Simple.

I think you’re going to struggle to get people to play along with you on your imaginary field with your imaginary free kicks and the potential to be put on your imaginary list.
I’ll stick to discussing reality from this point as your demands that people answer your imaginary questions are getting a little weird.
Cheers.

 

[blinkd]

I reckon Walsh would get a run over Emmett and Sharp mate. Just a thought.

Oh was just doing the team lists on the day, otherwise Darcy would be in there.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

If you’re not worried about your midfield you are just papering over the cracks. Not every team is going to put a 19 year old third gamer on Charlie.

How many sides have won a premiership over the last 25 years without their best midfielder playing?
If Walsh isn’t playing I agree we aren’t going to go too far this year, I just think it would be naive to make assumptions on our midfield atm when we are missing Walsh who happens to be the exact type we need atm.

 

[sumavich]

Bringing Darcy in to ruck will give Jackson a huge chop out. If they stay fit and play together Freo will be very tough to beat. Must say De Koning beat Jackson in the w/end. Jackson was ok, but nothing like he had been for the first 3 weeks

 

[Arr0w]

Total Clearance differentials so far

Carlton 17th, Cats 18th

Individual metrics mean very little