Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Meteoric Rise]

Is this still a thread?
Good god.
Richmond fans are Caro are ****ing delusional.

Lol, you fool. Richmond are about to own at least one draft. The thread has not even got started yet. This is where the roads of the two clubs really diverge. Richmond will back what has brought them success in the past. Geelong will stick with a very different method that has also brought them success. There are two very different philsophies opposing each other here, and long term this should be of great interest to all football followers as to how it plays out.

Of great interest to me tonight was the Hawthorn performance and the actual make up of their team. They do not have a high class prime aged core. Of the very high draft picks they have taken in recent years: pick 13 Day missed injured, 7 Mackenzie was dropped, 6 Grainger-Barrass is not going well, not in the team, 7 Ward came in and did well but has been in the VFL mostly recently, and only 5 Watson seems to be going well in his role right now. Probably throw in 18 Weddle, genuinely a rd 1 pick, who is going well.

So all these high end picks are not exactly dominating collectively. And yet they played a good team who seemed to play decently enough and beat them easily. I am starting to think the Peter Burge magic has got them spot on at the right end of the season. Very much like during Richmond's dynasty and even as late as 2022, with the similar tardy starts to seasons then gradually building momentum as the season wears on.

It will be of great interest to see which of these very different paths ends up winning the argument long term.

 

[excitingnews]

Lol, you fool. Richmond are about to own at least one draft. The thread has not even got started yet. This is where the roads of the two clubs really diverge. Richmond will back what has brought them success in the past. Geelong will stick with a very different method that has also brought them success. There are two very different philsophies opposing each other here, and long term this should be of great interest to all football followers as to how it plays out.

Of great interest to me tonight was the Hawthorn performance and the actual make up of their team. They do not have a high class prime aged core. Of the very high draft picks they have taken in recent years: pick 13 Day missed injured, 7 Mackenzie was dropped, 6 Grainger-Barrass is not going well, not in the team, 7 Ward came in and did well but has been in the VFL mostly recently, and only 5 Watson seems to be going well in his role right now. Probably throw in 18 Weddle, genuinely a rd 1 pick, who is going well.

So all these high end picks are not exactly dominating collectively. And yet they played a good team who seemed to play decently enough and beat them easily. I am starting to think the Peter Burge magic has got them spot on at the right end of the season. Very much like during Richmond's dynasty and even as late as 2022, with the similar tardy starts to seasons then gradually building momentum as the season wears on.

It will be of great interest to see which of these very different paths ends up winning the argument long term.

Mackenzie did a low grade hamstring, he has been very good this year and was definitely not dropped

 

[PhatBoy]

Lol, you fool. Richmond are about to own at least one draft. The thread has not even got started yet. This is where the roads of the two clubs really diverge. Richmond will back what has brought them success in the past. Geelong will stick with a very different method that has also brought them success. There are two very different philsophies opposing each other here, and long term this should be of great interest to all football followers as to how it plays out.

Of great interest to me tonight was the Hawthorn performance and the actual make up of their team. They do not have a high class prime aged core. Of the very high draft picks they have taken in recent years: pick 13 Day missed injured, 7 Mackenzie was dropped, 6 Grainger-Barrass is not going well, not in the team, 7 Ward came in and did well but has been in the VFL mostly recently, and only 5 Watson seems to be going well in his role right now. Probably throw in 18 Weddle, genuinely a rd 1 pick, who is going well.

So all these high end picks are not exactly dominating collectively. And yet they played a good team who seemed to play decently enough and beat them easily. I am starting to think the Peter Burge magic has got them spot on at the right end of the season. Very much like during Richmond's dynasty and even as late as 2022, with the similar tardy starts to seasons then gradually building momentum as the season wears on.

It will be of great interest to see which of these very different paths ends up winning the argument long term.

Correction: Richmond are about to get the opportunity to own at least one draft.

They will also back what has brought them success in the past and what has also brought them failure in the past: last full on shot at it they nailed it. Multiple times before that they didn’t.

 

[Muddiemoose]

Safe to say Richmond are ahead
Geelong are yet to start the rebuild


****ing campaigners

 

[Warhorse]

Richmond's timing of a full blown rebuild is a good decision. Don't want to be rebuilding through the draft when Tasmania enter

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Correction: Richmond are about to get the opportunity to own at least one draft.

They will also back what has brought them success in the past and what has also brought them failure in the past: last full on shot at it they nailed it. Multiple times before that they didn’t.

That wasn't the same Richmond. They had no full time recruiting staff.

 

[PhatBoy]

That wasn't the same Richmond. They had no full time recruiting staff.

Genuine question - did anyone else?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Mackenzie did a low grade hamstring, he has been very good this year and was definitely not dropped

Thanks for the correction. They don't seem to list injuries in the named tems these days, it is annoying.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Genuine question - did anyone else?

Yes, from a lot earlier than Richmond. Richmond only first appointed a full time recruiter in 2006. And he was one out until 2009. And the recruiting dept didn't mirror other clubs in depth until 2014. Richmond were years behind other clubs, they had no money.

 

[BF Tiger]

Geelong are into a PF with a week's rest... basically one foot into another GF. Any Richmond fan with any sense should just STFU for the time being and hope the Cats don't go all the way.

Then you can argue about what's going to happen in 2025, with Geelong's list older and slower, Geelong's tougher fixture, Richmond's draft hand, Yze having HIS assistants, a new fitness guru at Punt Rd, ...

 

[Tonythetiger]

All credit to Geelong, goes to show if you have the right people in the right positions (coaching, recruiting etc) and stability in the organisation, you are probably ahead of like 75% of the rest of the competition at any one time.c

Even if you make the argument of downplaying the opposition (Port choking), you can't deny how much confidence it would give the Geelong group having now made a prelim with a significantly different team from the 2022 flag.

I'm confident Tigers will come good, it's just we are going in a vastly different path with so many unproven people (coach and players). We don't know if Yze can coach yet. In theory, with the right people around him, with a full list to choose from and without the Gold Coast offer looming, Dimma could well have kept us thereabouts for a few more years. Dimma talked about doing a "Rebuild on the run" but he could his words twisted like Biden and what he meant to say was "Run from a rebuild."

We have our rookie coach, even with a full injury list, who is to say he would have been able to do significantly better? Is he a master tactician? NFI.

It's critical that this draft to us is what 2001 was to Geelong. Bartel, Kelly, Johnson, Ablett, Playfair is who they took and some are immortals of the club. If we are going to successful rebuild, we have to nail these picks, won't get another opportunity like this.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Hawthorn’s rebuild really shows how quickly you can bounce back. Start of 21 Hawthorn’s list looked in pretty rough shape with their age and talent profile, but they kept making good decisions to find themselves into a SF just 3 years later.

Richmond is in a similar boat now. A list filled with aging former stars, and only 4 good players (soon to be 1).

A crop of under 23 talent that is clearly the worst in the league, maybe even the worst in the history of the league.

A group of prime aged players who are either shit, injured, shit and injured, about to be traded, or Tim Taranto

14

Tim Taranto

Age

26

Ht

188cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.3

5star

K

12.8

5star

HB

9.5

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

4.1

5star

D

17.0

4star

K

12.0

5star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

3.0

4star

CL

5.5

5star

D

15.6

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

8.0

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

4.0

5star

CL

2.2

4star

.

Completely butchered 5 top 30 picks in the 21 draft, which should have set them up, but instead has delivered them a spoon.

A coach who won played over 200 games and recorded only 14 contested possessions.

 

[Grrr]

My post was clearly taking the piss, but there's a kernel of truth in there too.

Trust me, we've been there too. A few years ago Cats supporters were fighting back against the masses telling all an sundry that we actually had great kids, people just didn't realise it yet.

Charlie Constable, Quinton Narkle, Brandan Parfitt, Esava Ratugolea, Jamaine Jones, Wylie Buzza, Lachie Fogarty...the list goes on.

It was delusion though, and even at the time I think we knew deep down that those names had a 'role player' ceiling at best, but there's still a part of you that wants to believe.

These are deeply flawed players, and there's a reason they weren't high draft picks, and there's a reason they weren't getting selected regularly.

You're more than welcome to think Jack Ross, Hugo Ralph-Smith, Steely Green, Kane McAuliffe, Ryan Mansell, & Maurice Rioli Jnr are the players to take the Tigers forward. It's your life.

If I'm to recommend anything though, I'd wait until next year when you've actually got some high quality kids to get excited about.

It feels so much better knowing what you're saying is actually true, rather than gaslighting yourself into believing something that's not.

Just keep your powder dry mate.

2025 will be much better if you're a Tiger, but wait till Finn O'Sullivan or Harvey Langford is running around in the yellow & black and you'll understand what I mean.

No doubt we all over-rate our kids and it is not until you see them for a while at the top level that you see their weaknesses. Our best is probably Cumberland, has all the tools but one, footy nous. You don't see the lack of that until they are at the top level for an extended period.

A bit harsh on some of the names you mentioned above. Ross just keeps improving and has become a solid player. Lost most of this season to injury so hard to judge. Ralph Smith had a great year and will go top 5'ish in the B&F. Harsh on both Green and especially MacAuliffe, first season player so nobody has a right to judge just yet.

And yes some top quality kids will be most welcome. But it was our older players who let us down. Lynch is only 6 months older than Cameron, but has missed 2 full seasons. Gibcus the opposite but 2 seasons. Our plodding midfield needs a shot of youth.

And thanks for the gaslighting advice, it's been at least 4 years since our last Premiership, so things do get a bit hazy and forgetful at my age.

 

[BF Tiger]

Hawthorn’s rebuild really shows how quickly you can bounce back. Start of 21 Hawthorn’s list looked in pretty rough shape with their age and talent profile, but they kept making good decisions to find themselves into a SF just 3 years later.

Richmond is in a similar boat now. A list filled with aging former stars, and only 4 good players (soon to be 1).

A crop of under 23 talent that is clearly the worst in the league, maybe even the worst in the history of the league.

A group of prime aged players who are either shit, injured, shit and injured, about to be traded, or Tim Taranto.

Completely butchered 5 top 30 picks in the 21 draft, which should have set them up, but instead has delivered them a spoon.

A coach who won played over 200 games and recorded only 14 contested possessions.

I think all supporters might look back at the 21 draft and realise it was poor draft to have five top 30 picks in. Elite talent at the top (JH-F, Daicos, Darcy), but not available to Richmond or goone by the time we picked Gibcus at #9. Unfortunately we have not seen what he can do due to injury. Next pick was Tom Brown at 17. Maybe should have gone van Rooyen who went at pick 19. Then picks 28, 29 and 30 (Sonsie, Banks, Clarke). I'm not looking at picks after 30 and seeing anyone obvious who we should have picked instead.

 

[Grrr]

Gee that's clutching at straws. Why couldn't Dow do what Holmes has done this year? Or Sonsie do what Dempsey has done? Or Brown do what Humphries has done? Or Ryan do what Neale has done?

It's not opportunity or age or experience. It's a lack of quality.

Because Ryan, Dow and Sonsie look like busts, even Geelong had some of those.
Brown had some great games in his first season at AFL level (apart from rd.23 in 2023), both forward and back. Campbell played 21 games in his first season, not many do that. Granted easier to get games in lower sides, but on the flip, easier to play well in good side.

Richmond neglected it's youth for years and drafted poorly, but still some players coming through who as I said earlier, need to be seen before being written off. Was Bauer's 5 contested marks on Sisily a fluke or a sign of things to come. Who knows.

 

[Grrr]

Huh.

4th consecutive year without a finals win, about to lose a handful of your best 10 players, and not a single player in the U22 side?

Things are looking pretty Grim at Tigerland...

Edit: also, not a single player in the top 40 players under 24 years old that was recently published?

Oh no.

You forgot the bottom of the ladder.

We know that, but it what has that got to do with judging first year players. Besides that could change very quickly next season with a swag of top 20 picks possibly coming our way.

 

[Grrr]

The Cats performed as a top 4 team for H&A, a top 2 team last night and are guaranteed to finish a top 4 performing team for both finals and the overall season.

All we are waiting to see is whether they back up last night's game to be the 2nd best team or the premiers. So you can write that down and then run your follow up analysis from that foundation.

In the industry this is known as "rebuilding on the run".

Richmond's version is called "rebuilding the sewarage system" after a very stinky year.

And Geelong are the best side in the business at rebuilding, followed by Sydney. But that is not typical.

Our injury list was pretty severe. By end of May, we had the 4th most injuries in the last 5 years, seasons end we would have blown top place out of the water. In August we had 11 players who had been out for the season or would not come back. Geelong have 3 right now.

 

[Mr Meow]

And Geelong are the best side in the business at rebuilding, followed by Sydney. But that is not typical.

Our injury list was pretty severe. By end of May, we had the 4th most injuries in the last 5 years, seasons end we would have blown top place out of the water. In August we had 11 players who had been out for the season or would not come back. Geelong have 3 right now.

Yeah look I have nothing against Richmond and fully recognise the bad run they had. What you see in here is mostly just pushback when a couple of staunchly anti-Geelong posters "warn" us that actually everyone under 30 isn't that good or won't become great. You are well aware of the posters I am talking about. It was all well and good to go down that line a while ago when 80% of the class and skill was in our over 30s. Anyone who has watched Geelong in 2024 and thought the veterans have carried a weak 20-28 year old cohort is either doubling down on a biased position or really is miscomprehending what they're seeing.

 

[PhatBoy]

Tigers fans need to remember that a lot of the blowback involved in these threads stems from the whole conclusion to the finals trilogy where you more than earned the right to brag - but where it essentially wrapped up with ‘we’ve broken you, the cliff is here Cats, and it will be a long time before you come back.’

A premiership and two prelims later, we already have cycled a whole bunch of young players - better young ones than at any point through the last dozen years since Selwood and Hawkins were in their early 20s - and it’s the Tigers themselves who have fallen down that cliff, so there is naturally going to be a bit of ‘well hang on, you were saying?’

 

[Boxhead_31]

Huh.

4th consecutive year without a finals win, about to lose a handful of your best 10 players, and not a single player in the U22 side?

Things are looking pretty Grim at Tigerland...

Edit: also, not a single player in the top 40 players under 24 years old that was recently published?

Oh no.

Also losing Brendan Gale

 

[TigerTime88]

A lot of Geelong's credit needs to go to how welll Cameron and Danger are playing well into their 30s. Both excellent the other night and don't show signs of slowing down. Obviously sprinkled with some young talent as well.

Riewoldt, Cotch and even Dusty this year really dropped away in performance.

 

[Boxhead_31]

A lot of Geelong's credit needs to go to how welll Cameron and Danger are playing well into their 30s. Both excellent the other night and don't show signs of slowing down. Obviously sprinkled with some young talent as well.

Riewoldt, Cotch and even Dusty this year really dropped away in performance.

It is almost as if it was planned

 

[Mr Meow]

A lot of Geelong's credit needs to go to how welll Cameron and Danger are playing well into their 30s. Both excellent the other night and don't show signs of slowing down. Obviously sprinkled with some young talent as well.

Riewoldt, Cotch and even Dusty this year really dropped away in performance.

Dangerfield absolutely. An inside midfielder who has exploited burst acceleration simply shouldn't be elite at 34-35 years of age.

Cameron being very good at 31 is expected. Riewoldt turned 31 in 2019.

Players like Duncan, Tuohy, Stanley, Blicavs and Bews have dropped off a fair bit compared to their peak but can still do a job. We have those "Riewoldt, Cotchin, Dusty - cooked" players anyway - Hawkins and Cam Guthrie.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Enjoy your spoon

We will.

 

[Grrr]

It is almost as if it was planned

You can't plan for luck. Danger is 34, most are long gone or should have by then. He still has his greatest asset, pace. Good on him. Cameron is only 31, so plenty left in the tank. But if he had missed the last two years as Lynch had, who is only 6 months older, things might be a bit different.

But knowing Geelong, they'd patch the hole. We tried with Folau, (good before knee reco) Fawcett (draft - out all year with back) and Grey (midseason - ready to play first game, does a hammy with 2 minutes to go in the VFL, season over).