Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Taper]

A topic sure to become a big discussion in coming years, with both missing finals this year after winning multiple premierships and experiencing sustained success.

Geelong have been up since 2004.
Richmond have been up since 2013.

What goes up must come down and Geelong and Richmond will be looking to rebuild, refresh, regenerate, restump and rewire their lists.

Who do you think has the better youth and better future prospects?

 

[nut]

Clearly we have sold all our draft picks and have nothing in the bank unlike Geelongs pick 12 and 82

 

[Taper]

Clearly we have sold all our draft picks and have nothing in the bank unlike Geelongs pick 12 and 82

We'll have a top 10 pick this year due to missing finals.

 

[nut]

We'll have a top 10 pick this year due to missing finals.

Not after the academy picks

 

[Taper]

Not after the academy picks

We could always trade for a top 10 pick.
Remember we traded for pick 7 last year after winning the flag.

 

[nut]

We could always trade for a top 10 pick.
Remember we traded for pick 7 last year after winning the flag.

Yer I reckon you’ll get Grundy and Melbournes first pick for a future third.
Melbourne salary dump

 

[Danw0w]

History suggests Richmond will bounce back quicker and better than the cats

 

[WatWouldCyrilDo]

History suggests Richmond will bounce back quicker and better than the cats

Which history is that? Circa 1970?

 

[sydney_gws]

Depends in part on Dusty. If Richmond trade him, and then drop down thry might get the required picks in 2024 to really help a rebuild. But just like Hawthorn made one finals series from 2017 to 2023, both these clubs might not be in finals much the next 6 years.

 

[Danw0w]

Which history is that? Circa 1970?

Circa all time

 

[Taper]

History suggests Richmond will bounce back quicker and better than the cats

Based on what?
Richmond took 30 years to bounce back from their last great era.

 

[Danw0w]

Based on what?
Richmond took 30 years to bounce back from their last great era.

Took the cats 40

 

[Taper]

Took the cats 40

We were constantly going deep in finals and had some pretty exciting, high scoring sides.
Richmond only made finals twice in 30 years.

 

[juss]

The Richmond rebuild has begun today,

Out: Cotchin, Riewoldt, Prestia, Macintosh, Pickett

In: a handful of young players including 2 debutants

Both these clubs are in similar situations so it'll be very interesting.

Obviously new coaches set directions too so we need to wait and see there for the Tigers.

I can see us going with this approach in 2024, we might be a year or so ahead of the rebuild than the Cats but they'll have to do the same at some point too.

 

[PhatBoy]

We need more threads addressing this

 

[Feraligatr]

I can't say because I don't know enough about Geelong's kids but they do have a crazy good success rate at attracting good players from other teams.

I don't expect Geelong to be down for long if they are rebuilding.

I'm a bit more bullish on Richmond. I think we probably should have played kids more during this season instead of nursing Jack and Cotch through. But we went the Hawthorn route of throwing everything into one last bout.
Having no draft picks doesn't help either.

I hope we can build something but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Taper]

I can't say because I don't know enough about Geelong's kids but they do have a crazy good success rate at attracting good players from other teams.

I don't expect Geelong to be down for long if they are rebuilding.

I'm a bit more bullish on Richmond. I think we probably should have played kids more during this season instead of nursing Jack and Cotch through. But we went the Hawthorn route of throwing everything into one last bout.
Having no draft picks doesn't help either.

I hope we can build something but I'm not holding my breath.

Is there a chance of Richmond being able to trade for a higher draft pick?
Remember we were able to trade for pick 7 last year after winning the flag.

 

[Mr Meow]

History suggests Richmond will bounce back quicker and better than the cats

The last three times Geelong missed finals they made a prelim, won the flag and made a prelim.

The last three times Richmond missed finals they made an elimination final, won the flag and made an elimination final.

Do you rate elimination finals higher than prelims?

 

[Feraligatr]

Is there a chance of Richmond being able to trade for a higher draft pick?
Remember we were able to trade for pick 7 last year after winning the flag.

Maybe. But I don't think we can trade that high. Our first pick is 26 so far.

But I would be happy for Richmond to say, this is our core that we're going to build around and everyone else is tradeable.

 

[Mr Meow]

The Richmond rebuild has begun today,

Out: Cotchin, Riewoldt, Prestia, Macintosh, Pickett

In: a handful of young players including 2 debutants

Both these clubs are in similar situations so it'll be very interesting.

Obviously new coaches set directions too so we need to wait and see there for the Tigers.

I can see us going with this approach in 2024, we might be a year or so ahead of the rebuild than the Cats but they'll have to do the same at some point too.

Agreed. 2024 is our last crack (could go terribly, brilliantly or in between - hard to say) at contending for a few years, 2023 was it for Richmond. The Tigers have better players in the 23-27 year old range, the Cats are probably ahead in the 18-22 range on exposed form.

 

[GeTrain]

I back Geelong to have a faster rebuild. Their list management decisions last year indicate that they were already looking towards the future, plus they've got a good group of players in the 23-27 age range. We don't know what their forward line will look like tho, hard to play anyone else when 2 of the top 3 key forwards are on one team. They'll also always be a destination club because of ttheir go home factor being different to every other Vic side.

 

[Danw0w]

The last three times Geelong missed finals they made a prelim, won the flag and made a prelim.

The last three times Richmond missed finals they made an elimination final, won the flag and made an elimination final.

Do you rate elimination finals higher than prelims?

I rate premierships more than not premierships.

Of which we have three more.

 

[Taper]

I rate premierships more than not premierships.

Of which we have three more.

What?
We've won four flags to Richmond's three.

 

[Mr Meow]

I rate premierships more than not premierships.

Of which we have three more.

One less since both sides started their run of contending this century (2004 for Geelong, 2013 for Richmond). Richmond have hit their 10 year wall (Geelong hit this in 2013), it'll be interesting to see if they can bounce back quickly or if they'll need to wait another couple of generations (i.e the post 80s effect).

 

[BF Tiger]

Just merge this thread into the the other Geelong v Richmond shitshows and be done with it.

Both teams looking like not being contenders next year. After that...???