Key forwards. It showed this year without Lynch we are stuffed. Need to get him back fit and find another to support him.
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Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects
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Key forwards. It showed this year without Lynch we are stuffed. Need to get him back fit and find another to support him.
- Apr 10, 2013
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KPF to support Lynch then takeover from Lynch
Sampson Ryan looks a really nice type, but I think he is more a ruckman than KPF
We tried Miller but that didn't work..
Kobe Gryant
'07, '09, '11, '22
As we speak, Geelong have far more top 25 picks under 25 on their list than West Coast.
Plus pick 8 this year, and a likely round 2 for Esava.
1 - Tanner Bruhn (Pick 12)
2 - Jhye Clark (Pick 8)
3 - Ollie Henry (Pick 15)
4 - Toby Conway (Pick 24)
5 - Mitch Knevitt (Pick 25)
6 - Sam De Koning (Pick 16)
7 - Max Holmes (Pick 20)
8 - Pick 8 (2023)
9 - Esava pick (Likely SRP)
Vs the Eagles
1 - Oscar Allen (Pick 21)
2 - Campell Chesser (Pick 14)
3 - Reuben Ginbey (Pick 9)
4 - Elijah Hewett (Pick 14)
5 - Pick 1 (2023)
6 - Pick 19 (2023)
***********************
The Cats rebuild is still a good 1-3 drafts away from being complete, but they're a lot further ahead than many opposition supporters believe.
We just do it differently, that's all. Let the kids do their time in the VFL and then bring them in to a competitive side, rather than throwing them to the wolves and hoping they develop.
Well for one you aren’t getting a top 25 pick for Esava.
Two, that was handy of you to just randomly chose pick 25 as a starting point.
Just change it to first and second rounders our numbers increase significantly and yours don’t. Our 25+ picks have shown more at AFL level than Knevitt, Conway or Clark (who was injured I know). Where they were selected is irrelevant.
Maric, Culley, Long, Williams, Hough, Petchrucelle, Waterman. Outside the top 25 or from the MSD.
Can’t just discount them. Not sure Geelong have anyone picked outside the top 25 under 25 to hang their hat on. Maybe Miers and Close were late picks but both are pretty much 25 aren’t they? No teenagers like 4 of the names I mentioned.
I think you are a bit optimistic of the state of your list. Believe me I’ve been there. You won a flag. Few years down the bottom won’t ever change that. It’s always worth it.
Kobe Gryant
'07, '09, '11, '22
You seriously think there's a hidden agenda by picking top 25? It's where the most talent is, that's why.
I didn't do it for us either, where I could easily do this.
- Tyson Stengle (All Australian)
- Gryan Miers (Borderline star)
- Brad Close (Good role player)
- Zach Guthrie (Good role player)
- Jack Henry (Gun, finished 2nd in the B&F in a top 4 year, hampered with injury since)
- Jack Bowes (Good role player)
On top of that
- Shannon Neale (Pick 31)
- James Willis (Pick 33)
- Ollie Dempsey (Dominant in the VFL this year, too skinny for AFL yet)
**************************
It's so much easier just marking it at the top 25.
Otherwise you're arguing about players than nobody's heard of outside of your club, and won't understand why you rate them highly internally.
The top 25 picks have the highest % of being successful, it's not some arbitrary number.
I feel you have proven my point with those names you just listed better than I ever could.
Very optimistic.
We will see how all those players look in an ordinary side. It’s why the likes of Jack Henry have gone backwards. All good teams have them. Players who look great when everyone else is carrying the team.
Duggan, Cole, Sheed to name a few for us. Look what has happened when they need to be the ones?
We will see how many assists Miers gets to go along with his 6 goals kicking to Neale as opposed to Hawkins and Cameron for example. No surprise Stengle was a lot better in 2022 than this year or any year at the Crows either.
Maybe they will prove me wrong but having just witnessed this thing first hand I don’t think they will.
Sttew
Brownlow Medallist
Can't remember last time we had 10 games at our home ground; it must have been pre-VFL Park days
Kobe Gryant
'07, '09, '11, '22
Jack Henry 'went backwards' because he was out with a foot injury for 4 months, and then hurt it again.
If that's what you describe as going backwards then we can safely end this discussion here.
He played 11 games. All in a row. Averaged 10 touches. Never got over 16. 4 goals total.
Maybe it was all a previous injury. Or maybe is was playing in a side that lost half of the games he played in for once.
He’s no orphan from those names you mentioned.
Was Stengle injured? 53 goals one year (including finals granted). 27 the next.
Close 46 scoring shots in 2022. 27 in 2023.
Happy to end the convo though. Neither of us has a crystal ball. But there has also never been a team that may need to use the last 3 odd picks of a draft just to fill a main list either.
- Feb 12, 2017
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- have been WARPED by Geelong
Yup yup, young De Koning was seen as an overnight success last year as an apparent first-year key defender for the premiership winning side, but as Chris Scott kept mentioning 2022 was his third year in the system, it's just no one outside the club had seen or head of him while he was honing his craft in the ressies for a couple of years.
Some of your points would have been reasonable but it's fairly obvious to see you're arguing from a disingenuous stance.
Close averaged 0.04 less goals per game. He averaged 0.12 more goals per game. He got less of the ball but on your criteria he didn't go backwards.
Stengle played 6 games less this year and had the injury interruption. 1.7 goals a game over his last 10 games was solid. Most sides would be happy with their small forwards going at such a rate in a non finals side.
As for J.Henry he had a slow start upon his return (we were also using him incorrectly as a utility), but he then had a really good stretch of 6 games round 15-20 (elite for intercepts etc) before someone stepped on his foot. He had a decent 2022 as well. All he needs is a good run at it.
All 3 have upside on their 2023 seasons. But it's an odd position to think all will decline or stall.
Dow is fine but you still will need to trade for him. So it would be another draft you are trading out of because it will require a future pick. And the issue comes up again next year because I’d imagine you have 4 or 5 retirees then too.
Lycett may be one you get to fill a spot but not give up anything for.
Still leaves another two spots after your second pick (which already over 70) I think?
I’m sure you’ll manage to sort something. It will be interesting to see what.
- Jun 19, 2006
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Your Jack Henry opinion is really bizarre. Have you ever watched him play?
Why are you talking about goals for a guy who plays almost entirely as full back? His goals per game this year was actually the highest of his career.
His best year was 2021 when we weren't great. He wasn't being carried by others because he finished 2nd in our B&F. He was the one doing the carrying.
And when fit he's been pretty good since then including this year. He's just been regularly injured.
- Jun 19, 2006
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I mean Tyson Stengle is an all Australian. But tell me more about the superstar that is Jack Petruccelle.
I get Geelong's kids don't look like world beaters. It's been that way forever and we will live or die on their future development.
But do we really need to hear about these West Coast world beaters? None of them could even finish higher in the B&F than a cooked Shannon Hurn who only played 13 games.
We love finding gems at the scrap heap of the draft/rookie draft.
Anyway as far as turnover in the best 22, it's already happening and mostly with younger players.
This season Bruhn, Ratugolea, O.Henry and Bowes became best 22. Obviously Ratugolea is on the way out but the point stands.
2022 saw Holmes, De Koning and Stengle become best 22.
I suspect next year that could become Dempsey, Knevitt and Clark. A trade acquisition maybe. Conway perhaps.
Better free agents are available at the end of 2024 so a medium/big fish or two then may be on the cards as salary cap opens up.
Remember, people have been doomsday on Geelong's list and how long they could be a finals contender from as far back as 2010.
Kobe Gryant
'07, '09, '11, '22
A lot of that is because we wait until they're ready as well.
I guarantee if we'd played more youth the narrative would change to how the Cats are this young team full of exuberance (Similar to round 24 this year)
But we don't do that, because our footy club cares about winning, not what outsiders believe and what's written in articles.
The club could have flogged the likes of Conway, SDK, Clark, Knevitt, Dempsey, Neale etc into the ground immediately, but they didn't do that. It'll be the same with the kids we pick up this year.
They bide their time in the VFL, and come in when they're ready to contribute to a strong side.
Hopefully with a bit of injury luck and a grueling summer we're back to that again - if not - we'll wait and see.
The outliers are Holmes, Bruhn & Henry, who's form was simply too good to refuse and were clearly a step above VFL level when they were demoted.
So basically Geelong are fine because Jack Bowes (his eighth season) and Max Holmes (third) have become best 22 and averaging 15 touches as mids.
It isn’t relevant that once this happened they went from 1st to 12th.
And Geelong managed to use a pick in the 40s on Steve Johnson once so will be able to find great players with picks in the 70s. The likes of using first round picks on Darcy Lang, Cooper Stevens, Billy Smedts, Nakia Cockatoo doesn’t matter.
I wasn’t the one who brought West Coast into it. But if the only thing to hang your hat on when comparing your list to the wooden spooners is that 24 year old Tyson Stengle was AA once maybe you are in a bit of trouble?
Keep in mind West Coast didn’t need to retire 15-18 players (not including ones who will be delisted) before getting to this position, as Geelong need to do in the next 4-5 seasons after winning a flag.
I simply said Geelong rebuild isn’t close to starting. But winning the flag was worth it. Also never said they would be crap next year. I think there may be some nervous fans.
It isn’t relevant that once this happened they went from 1st to 12th.
And Geelong managed to use a pick in the 40s on Steve Johnson once so will be able to find great players with picks in the 70s. The likes of using first round picks on Darcy Lang, Cooper Stevens, Billy Smedts, Nakia Cockatoo doesn’t matter.
I wasn’t the one who brought West Coast into it. But if the only thing to hang your hat on when comparing your list to the wooden spooners is that 24 year old Tyson Stengle was AA once maybe you are in a bit of trouble?
Keep in mind West Coast didn’t need to retire 15-18 players (not including ones who will be delisted) before getting to this position, as Geelong need to do in the next 4-5 seasons after winning a flag.
I simply said Geelong rebuild isn’t close to starting. But winning the flag was worth it. Also never said they would be crap next year. I think there may be some nervous fans.
- May 5, 2016
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Key defender doesn’t rack up heaps of possessions or goals in season in which he played 40 per cent of team’s games interspersed with two serious injuries.
Huge if true
- May 5, 2016
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This.
Even our touted kids have never been just airdropped into the best 22 and left there aside from Selwood.
Hawkins was a likely top 3 pick if not for the father son rule and even after kicking 3, 4 and 4 goals in his first, second and fifth games, only played 9 out of 25 games in his debut season and 10 out of 25 in his second.
- Nov 28, 2017
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I would say our wings, developing Banks will be important.
Obviously Jack needs replacing, I think Bauer could be that guy depending on how much he improves next season.
I think each line still needs improvement in certain areas, midfield needs more speed.
We need another quality lockdown defender with Grimes on the way out.
A lot of what if's when you going through transitional period getting games into players & finding out if their good enough.
From last night vfl awards. Equal 10th in voting and team of the year with only 12 full games. We just need to see another step up in development from him and Knevitt over pre season to build hope for 2024. I can be a little more patient with Clark and Conway as I am highly confident in future to happy for them to build afl bodies
I trust Geelong's ability or more so Wells ability to get the players in to regenerate there list.
It pains me but the guy just gets it right
It pains me but the guy just gets it right
Noidnadroj
Norm Smith Medallist
- Dec 8, 2020
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I think Richmond’s ‘rebuild’ is a couple of years ahead. Mainly because in 2024, I count 10 x players who are 30+ in 2024 who will be in Geelong’s best team - none of those are getting any better, and most are likely to fall away:
Hawkins
Tuohy
Danger
Stanley
Blicavs
Rohan
Duncan
Guthrie
Stewart
Cameron
Then there’s Bews who is probably easily replaceable with a youngster. But most of that list are prime movers for the Cats.
The Richmond equivalent is :
Martin
Grimes
Prestia
Lynch
Broad
There’s then Pickett (32yo) and McIntosh (30yo on April) who are pretty average and no great loss
and like Bews, easily replaceable.
Then there’s the proven quality players, B+ and above aged from 24-29yo… peak footballing years. Geelong’s is:
Atkins
Z Guthrie
Close
Henry
Stengle
Miers
The likes of Parfitt, Bowes haven’t shown themselves beyond B-grade recently. Even Henry is fortunate to be on this list.
Richmond’s B+ 24-29yo are:
Vlastuin
Nankervis
Short
Hopper
Rioli
Baker
Taranto
Bolton
Balta
I’ve left off Graham (despite second in B&F in 2021 his last 2 seasons have been average)
And Tyler Young (showed potential in 2023 but needs more runs on the board).
So that’s 10-5 30+ being relied on. And 9-6 Richmond’s way for quality 24-29yo.
Then there’s 23yo and below. Hard to judge many of these given little exposed form, but for those you’d have confidence in developing into B+ or better:
Geelong:
SDK
O Henry
Holmes
Richmond:
S Ryan
Gibcus
I’d give Geelong the edge based on exposed form for the 23yo and below, as I’m less confident in Ryan and Gibcus (injury worries) than I am in Geelong’s under 23yo brigade. Although IMO Richmond has a larger pool of youngsters with ‘potential’ than Geelong does.
There are many youngsters who’ve shown bits and pieces : Bruhn and Sonsie for example, but I’d have no confidence in declaring anyone else will be B+ or better.
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Hawkins
Tuohy
Danger
Stanley
Blicavs
Rohan
Duncan
Guthrie
Stewart
Cameron
Then there’s Bews who is probably easily replaceable with a youngster. But most of that list are prime movers for the Cats.
The Richmond equivalent is :
Martin
Grimes
Prestia
Lynch
Broad
There’s then Pickett (32yo) and McIntosh (30yo on April) who are pretty average and no great loss
and like Bews, easily replaceable.
Then there’s the proven quality players, B+ and above aged from 24-29yo… peak footballing years. Geelong’s is:
Atkins
Z Guthrie
Close
Henry
Stengle
Miers
The likes of Parfitt, Bowes haven’t shown themselves beyond B-grade recently. Even Henry is fortunate to be on this list.
Richmond’s B+ 24-29yo are:
Vlastuin
Nankervis
Short
Hopper
Rioli
Baker
Taranto
Bolton
Balta
I’ve left off Graham (despite second in B&F in 2021 his last 2 seasons have been average)
And Tyler Young (showed potential in 2023 but needs more runs on the board).
So that’s 10-5 30+ being relied on. And 9-6 Richmond’s way for quality 24-29yo.
Then there’s 23yo and below. Hard to judge many of these given little exposed form, but for those you’d have confidence in developing into B+ or better:
Geelong:
SDK
O Henry
Holmes
Richmond:
S Ryan
Gibcus
I’d give Geelong the edge based on exposed form for the 23yo and below, as I’m less confident in Ryan and Gibcus (injury worries) than I am in Geelong’s under 23yo brigade. Although IMO Richmond has a larger pool of youngsters with ‘potential’ than Geelong does.
There are many youngsters who’ve shown bits and pieces : Bruhn and Sonsie for example, but I’d have no confidence in declaring anyone else will be B+ or better.
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