Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Meteoric Rise]

I'm sure they'll be getting on better than getting flogged by the worst travellers in the league - Gold Coast - at their own home ground in a dead rubber (besides sending off heroes...geez their record in such matches is dire).

Everything from here is gravy baby. The most common BigFooty prediction for Geelong in the Ladder thread was 14th. We are a solid chance to do better than that.

Finals are gravy?

They are what decides who is the Premiership winner. They are the most important part of the season. They are when almost all players make or break their reputations. If you are no good in finals then you aren't much good. If you are good in finals then you are really good. These shouldn't be the last finals your guys play but the world is watching.

 

[MisterMarcus]

Since Richmond have cemented the spoon, expect a massive uptick in all the anti-Geelong threads in the next few weeks....

 

[Mr Meow]

Finals are gravy?

They are what decides who is the Premiership winner. They are the most important part of the season. They are when almost all players make or break their reputations. If you are no good in finals then you aren't much good. If you are good in finals then you are really good. These shouldn't be the last finals your guys play but the world is watching.

Given the expectation start of season and round 16 as our rut set in, then yes advancing through any final is gravy. We will carry many finals debutants and juniors, while only 2 or 3 of the oldies are still high performers. It's a great chance for players of all ages to have a crack, rather than fading out ala Richmond 2024. It's exciting. And yes the chance of failure is very high but I'd rather a club who knocks on the door consistently, than goes from hero to zero in the flash of an eye.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Given the expectation start of season and round 16 as our rut set in, then yes advancing through any final is gravy. We will carry many finals debutants and juniors, while only 2 or 3 of the oldies are still high performers. It's a great chance for players of all ages to have a crack, rather than fading out ala Richmond 2024. It's exciting. And yes the chance of failure is very high but I'd rather a club who knocks on the door consistently, than goes from hero to zero in the flash of an eye.

No disrespect but you will field the oldest team in the finals. This is not some team of kids having a happy crack at it. The club is fully invested in the policy of fielding teams that compete in finals. So if they fail in finals it can only be a failure.

They are in there with a chance. I don't expect them to do well, but I have been wrong before.

Just to note, Tigers last finals team contained:

23yo Bolton, Miller
22yo Balta
21yo Ross Cumberland
20yo M Rioli
19yo Sonsie, Gibcus

The team lost by a kick v Lions in Brisbane.

You will field about 6-7 players 21-23yo range. So let's see how you get on.

23yo DeKoning
22yo Holmes Neale? Henry Bruhn
21yo Dempsey Humphries

 

[Mr Meow]

No disrespect but you will field the oldest team in the finals. This is not some team of kids having a happy crack at it. The club is fully invested in the policy of fielding teams that compete in finals. So if they fail in finals it can only be a failure.

They are in there with a chance. I don't expect them to do well, but I have been wrong before.

Just to note, Tigers last finals team contained:

23yo Bolton, Miller
22yo Balta
21yo Ross Cumberland
20yo M Rioli
19yo Sonsie, Gibcus

The team lost by a kick v Lions in Brisbane.

You will field about 6-7 players 21-23yo range. So let's see how you get on.

23yo DeKoning
22yo Holmes Neale? Henry Bruhn
21yo Dempsey Humphries

No disrespect taken, and none sent back to you.

If Conway was fit he'd play ahead of Stanley. If O'Connor was fit he'd probably replace Tuohy. Injuries have played their part and ironically our oldest players have been in the best condition. I'd be surprised if Bews keeps his spot but our lack of small defenders means he has a chance of playing his 4th game this season in our QF.

So the 30+ year olds who are 100% first choice for the 2024 finals are Dangerfield, Duncan, Blicavs, Stewart and Cameron. 5 players.

In 2022, the 30+ year olds who were 100% first choice for finals were Selwood, Hawkins, Smith, Tuohy, Dangerfield, Stanley, Blicavs, Rohan and Duncan. 9 players.

We have a lot more players in the 20-26 year old range this time. 9 in 2022. 14 in 2024. There is a higher number of players in the first half of their career rather than approaching the end.

 

[PhatBoy]

They won’t make the 8

Just need to stress this again.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Let's see how all these under 23 superstars go when the whips are cracking.

Narrator: they went pretty well

Fresh faces, same results: New-look Cats show anything is possible

Every time you write off Geelong, it finds a way to bounce back. And this time it's being led by a group of unheralded youngsters

www.afl.com.au

 

[MisterMarcus]

Narrator: they went pretty well

Fresh faces, same results: New-look Cats show anything is possible

Every time you write off Geelong, it finds a way to bounce back. And this time it's being led by a group of unheralded youngsters

www.afl.com.au

Yeah but they were all carried by our old blokes like Stewart and Cam Guthrie and Rohan....

 

[Cursed Cat]

Finals are gravy?

They are what decides who is the Premiership winner. They are the most important part of the season. They are when almost all players make or break their reputations. If you are no good in finals then you aren't much good. If you are good in finals then you are really good. These shouldn't be the last finals your guys play but the world is watching.

You know who the world isn't watching?

 

[PhatBoy]

Jeez Cats supporters antsy leading into the 2024 AFL Toyota Finals series. Anyone would think they were expecting a straight sets exit or something.

Let's see how all these under 23 superstars go when the whips are cracking.

How did they do

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Yeah but they were all carried by our old blokes like Stewart and Cam Guthrie and Rohan....

We really wouldn't have gotten far without the old heads like mature age recruit Lawson Humphries patrolling the backline

 

[tiger_tough]

I'm envious. They are the benchmark club in the league.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

How did they do

I didn't see Port cracking too many whips tbh, did you?

 

[STPer18]

Wait are we still pretending this is actually a thing? Why are we comparing a prelim finalist to the wooden spooners?

 

[PhatBoy]

I didn't see Port cracking too many whips tbh, did you?

They led the game on their home deck midway through the second quarter in a home qualifying final. Seems like we handled it reasonably

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Wait are we still pretending this is actually a thing? Why are we comparing a prelim finalist to the wooden spooners?

I know right!

Those old and slow Geelong bastards are at the peak of their powers, they shouldn't even be in this thread.

The rising stars down at Punt Rd are bursting at the seams.

There is quality everywhere, there's just too many to name, such is their representation in the rising star votes, and the under 22 youf side*




*Okay, so I just checked, and I can't name one.

Kamala Harris-Smith goes okay, I think that's his name anyway.

Do Finn O'Sullivan or Josh Smillie count?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

They led the game on their home deck midway through the second quarter in a home qualifying final. Seems like we handled it reasonably

Port were pathetic. At least part of that was nothing to do with cats, ie unforced fumbles, miss easy targets, disorganised defence etc. Part of it was probably to do with the cats playing very well. We will see to what extent over the coming weeks.

Most of my analysis indicates Cats on relevant performance over the season sit a bit below the top few. Not all predictive analysis is going to be correct of course. Last night has, I must admit, created some doubt in my mind due to the magnitude of the victory and some vague similarities to some of the Cats 2022 finals performances.

My analysis still shows the Swans by a bit of a margin from Lions Dogs then Giants then Hawks either behind this group or simlar depending if you ignore the first 5 games. Port and Cats were well behind and Blues even further back. Last night's result however sits well outside what my analysis predicted(I had the game closeish but with very low confidence due to the Port absences and it being unknown how that might affect them.) Mind you, last night's result would sit well outside what anyone predicted, so we just have to wait to see if the Cats have broken out to a previously unseen level, or if it is more a case of Port in total malfunction on the night, or a mixture of the two.

 

[Mr Meow]

Port were pathetic. At least part of that was nothing to do with cats, ie unforced fumbles, miss easy targets, disorganised defence etc. Part of it was probably to do with the cats playing very well. We will see to what extent over the coming weeks.

Most of my analysis indicates Cats on relevant performance over the season sit a bit below the top few. Not all predictive analysis is going to be correct of course. Last night has, I must admit, created some doubt in my mind due to the magnitude of the victory and some vague similarities to some of the Cats 2022 finals performances.

My analysis still shows the Swans by a bit of a margin from Lions Dogs then Giants then Hawks either behind this group or simlar depending if you ignore the first 5 games. Port and Cats were well behind and Blues even further back. Last night's result however sits well outside what my analysis predicted(I had the game closeish but with very low confidence due to the Port absences and it being unknown how that might affect them.) Mind you, last night's result would sit well outside what anyone predicted, so we just have to wait to see if the Cats have broken out to a previously unseen level, or if it is more a case of Port in total malfunction on the night, or a mixture of the two.

You always denied this was the case when it was pointed out that Richmond hardly faced finals titans during 2017-2020. Those Port and Brisbane sides were proven to be serial chokers. GWS and Adelaide pathetic in grand finals. Geelong's good but not great sides (look at players 9-22 from those lists and you'll see why) could put together about a half of finals football at the required standard, but that was it. Their forward line was always poor and thus incapable of capitalising on dominance.

But no, you argued that those were truly outstanding sides and Richmond simply made them look terrible by playing even better football.

Now, unsurprisingly, the narrative shifts if Geelong dares to power through opponents in finals. You were staunch on that in 2022, and now you have started again.

I think it would be impossible for you to give Geelong any meaningful credit. The least you can do is try not to make the double standards and hypocrisy so apparent. If this was Richmond, the praise you would be giving them would be unrelenting.

 

[errant bounce]

Richmond going the firesale approach will bite them in the arse. having all these draft picks before Tasmania comes in sounds smart, but teams tend to go a bit scattergun and make some bad choices when they've got a smorgasboard of picks. combination of taking risks, going too broad, 'oh that's okay, we'll just get a mid next' mentality.

 

[dean33]

Answering the OP question I’d have the cats marginally in front of the tigers at the moment however really its almost line ball…

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You always denied this was the case when it was pointed out that Richmond hardly faced finals titans during 2017-2020. Those Port and Brisbane sides were proven to be serial chokers. GWS and Adelaide pathetic in grand finals. Geelong's good but not great sides (look at players 9-22 from those lists and you'll see why) could put together about a half of finals football at the required standard, but that was it. Their forward line was always poor and thus incapable of capitalising on dominance.

But no, you argued that those were truly outstanding sides and Richmond simply made them look terrible by playing even better football.

Now, unsurprisingly, the narrative shifts if Geelong dares to power through opponents in finals. You were staunch on that in 2022, and now you have started again.

I think it would be impossible for you to give Geelong any meaningful credit. The least you can do is try not to make the double standards and hypocrisy so apparent. If this was Richmond, the praise you would be giving them would be unrelenting.

You better show me where I argued all of those teams Richmond beat(or any of them) were truly outstanding sides....because I don't believe you.

I have been consistent with Cats in 2022, they were the best team in it, clearly, and a very good team as they presented in finals. There wasn't another team with really strong finals form so they got left miles ahead, as can happen. Nobody can fairly criticise that Cats team but a team who has just one outstanding finals series isn't in the conversation of historic great teams imo.

In 2017 Crows did have outstanding finals form and Richmond beat them by 8.0 in the GF. If Crows were the level of say Swans in 2022, Tigers would have won by a cricket score a well. I posted somehwere in the last couple of weeks there are only about half a dozen teams since 1970 to beat a team in a GF that had won their 2 previous finals by 6 goals +.

From memory something like Hawks 89, Blues 95, Dogs 2016, Tigers 2017, Tigers 2020.

The reason it is so rare is that whilst there are a lot of finals blowouts it is not that easy to win consecutive finals by big margins, let alone beat a team who has done that, and do so by a big margin. I think there was one more team who had done it but I can't find them at the moment.

If Cats go on to play further strong finals I will give them their due praise. At this stage I am only prepared to say they played very well last night but the opponent looked extremely poor. And again, we will see next week how Port get on.

 

[Grrr]

Richmond going the firesale approach will bite them in the arse. having all these draft picks before Tasmania comes in sounds smart, but teams tend to go a bit scattergun and make some bad choices when they've got a smorgasboard of picks. combination of taking risks, going too broad, 'oh that's okay, we'll just get a mid next' mentality.

Richmond haven't pushed anyone, quite the opposite. But players make decisions for one reason or another to leave or go play elsewhere, Geelong. like Richmond have been pretty good at attracting those types over the years.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Richmond going the firesale approach will bite them in the arse. having all these draft picks before Tasmania comes in sounds smart, but teams tend to go a bit scattergun and make some bad choices when they've got a smorgasboard of picks. combination of taking risks, going too broad, 'oh that's okay, we'll just get a mid next' mentality.

It wouldn't have been Richmond's first choice to go this way. They have just been led by circumstances and a value based approach. The list had become unblanced with too much of the higher end talent not key position or inside midfield players. A whole lot of circumstances seem to have lined up to allow them the chance to correct this for the longer term. Shocking injury run giving pick 1, teams crying out for Rioli and Bolton and Baker having a really good array of picks to trade, and what everyone seems to htink is a storng and deep draft.

Everyone knows it will weaken the peak performance of the team in the near term, but that looks a price worth paying.

 

[Mr Meow]

You better show me where I argued all of those teams Richmond beat(or any of them) were truly outstanding sides....because I don't believe you.

I have been consistent with Cats in 2022, they were the best team in it, clearly, and a very good team as they presented in finals. There wasn't another team with really strong finals form so they got left miles ahead, as can happen. Nobody can fairly criticise that Cats team but a team who has just one outstanding finals series isn't in the conversation of historic great teams imo.

In 2017 Crows did have outstanding finals form and Richmond beat them by 8.0 in the GF. If Crows were the level of say Swans in 2022, Tigers would have won by a cricket score a well. I posted somehwere in the last couple of weeks there are only about half a dozen teams since 1970 to beat a team in a GF that had won their 2 previous finals by 6 goals +.

From memory something like Hawks 89, Blues 95, Dogs 2016, Tigers 2017, Tigers 2020.

The reason it is so rare is that whilst there are a lot of finals blowouts it is not that easy to win consecutive finals by big margins, let alone beat a team who has done that, and do so by a big margin. I think there was one more team who had done it but I can't find them at the moment.

If Cats go on to play further strong finals I will give them their due praise. At this stage I am only prepared to say they played very well last night but the opponent looked extremely poor. And again, we will see next week how Port get on.

I have zero chance of finding posts from a year or more ago, unless I distinctly remembered them involving the phrase "purple monkey dishwasher" or something that oddly specific. We talked a lot about the quality of those sides and you always defended them strongly. If it comforts you to pretend those conversations never took place, it doesn't worry me.

Your logic for Adelaide 2017 being stronger than Sydney 2022 is flimsy. Finals margins will depend on the quality of the opponent and how well they fronted up. Frankly there will always be a "chicken and the egg" dilemma when assessing whether it was the victor being amazing or the defeated being pathetic. Close finals wins don't automatically mean the premier was "weaker".

What we do know is that Adelaide 2017 won 15 games in home and away, had two strong home finals against sides that finished 7th and 8th a year later and brought a competitive game for a quarter and a bit in a grand final. No success or contending in the years preceding. No finals at all in the years to follow. At least any Geelong 2017-2020 side you can say they were competitive, with finals hardened players for a long time. With a stack of club champions. Besides Walker, Betts, Sloane and Laird the Crows team was forgettable in terms of the club's legacy.

Sydney have fronted up for finals in an injury train wreck year in 2023, then are the team to beat in 2024. They won an away QF in 2022 and then won a close prelim against the team that would become premiers in 2023. Their 2022 side had premiership stars and many finals hardened players, with great youth that was in the process of turning into superstars. A much more credentialed team than the 2017 Crows.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I have zero chance of finding posts from a year or more ago, unless I distinctly remembered them involving the phrase "purple monkey dishwasher" or something that oddly specific. We talked a lot about the quality of those sides and you always defended them strongly. If it comforts you to pretend those conversations never took place, it doesn't worry me.

Your logic for Adelaide 2017 being stronger than Sydney 2022 is flimsy. Finals margins will depend on the quality of the opponent and how well they fronted up. Frankly there will always be a "chicken and the egg" dilemma when assessing whether it was the victor being amazing or the defeated being pathetic. Close finals wins don't automatically mean the premier was "weaker".

What we do know is that Adelaide 2017 won 15 games in home and away, had two strong home finals against sides that finished 7th and 8th a year later and brought a competitive game for a quarter and a bit in a grand final. No success or contending in the years preceding. No finals at all in the years to follow. At least any Geelong 2017-2020 side you can say they were competitive, with finals hardened players for a long time. With a stack of club champions. Besides Walker, Betts, Sloane and Laird the Crows team was forgettable in terms of the club's legacy.

Sydney have fronted up for finals in an injury train wreck year in 2023, then are the team to beat in 2024. They won an away QF in 2022 and then won a close prelim against the team that would become premiers in 2023. Their 2022 side had premiership stars and many finals hardened players, with great youth that was in the process of turning into superstars. A much more credentialed team than the 2017 Crows.

Yet Crows 2017 had a percentage of 137% and beat 2 x top 4 teams in finals by 6 goals +. they couldn't have been too bad, in 2017, because there are not that many teams that actually achieve that much. Your arguments around the teams Richmond vanquished in finals revolve around the extemely spurious notion that the whole competition suddenly just got a lot weaker. Because for your theory to hold water, the teams the Crows beat had to be very weak, and the teams those teams beat had to be even weaker and so on.

One finals result can easily be a false reading. Two finals results, especially against top 4 teams and by big margins, not so much.