Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Footy Smarts]

Lies …. damn lies and statistics …

Average number of players each week with less than 30-games experience in 2023:

Richmond: 5 per week
Geelong: 2 per week

(Don’t know Saints)

Number of players who were under 24yo to play senior footy in 2023:

Richmond : 17
Geelong: 11
Saints: 11



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My stats were 100% true. No current under 23 on Richmond's list played 18+ games. The highest was Ryan with 14.

Maybe ask why have Miller, Mansell, Ryan, Dow, Cumberland, Ralphsmith and Rioli played so few games after 3-6 seasons? The difference between the clubs under 30 games played is more than made up for by those players (on average 3.5 of those 7 played each week).

Do you think they've been repeatedly dropped back to the VFL cause of their high quality performances?

So let's do a real breakdown:

Players currently under 23 who were selected consistently:
Geelong - 4 (Bruhn, Holmes, SDK, O Henry)
Richmond - 0

Genuine youngsters (in their first 2 seasons) played each game:
Geelong - 2
Richmond - 2

"Young" players with 3+ seasons on the list who still can't hold their spot played per game:
Richmond - 3
Geelong - 0

But keep coming up with stats that can ignore the genuine youngsters who are locked in the best 22 at Geelong while counting the older players at Richmond that are repeatedly being dropped.

 

[Noidnadroj]

My stats were 100% true. No current under 23 on Richmond's list played 18+ games. The highest was Ryan with 14.

Maybe ask why have Miller, Mansell, Ryan, Dow, Cumberland, Ralphsmith and Rioli played so few games after 3-6 seasons? The difference between the clubs under 30 games played is more than made up for by those players (on average 3.5 of those 7 played each week).

Do you think they've been repeatedly dropped back to the VFL cause of their high quality performances?

So let's do a real breakdown:

Players currently under 23 who were selected consistently:
Geelong - 4 (Bruhn, Holmes, SDK, O Henry)
Richmond - 0

Genuine youngsters (in their first 2 seasons) played each game:
Geelong - 2
Richmond - 2

"Young" players with 3+ seasons on the list who still can't hold their spot played per game:
Richmond - 3
Geelong - 0

But keep coming up with stats that can ignore the genuine youngsters who are locked in the best 22 at Geelong while counting the older players at Richmond that are repeatedly being dropped.

Have you not heard the saying ‘lies, damned lies, and statistics’ ? It doesn’t mean I think you’re lying, it means stats can be used in any which way to bolster an argument.

For example … players on each list under 24yo to have played 15 games or more over the last 2 x seasons:

Richmond: 12
Geelong: 4

So yes, Geelong’s 4 are looking more established, but there’s only 4 of them which is a concern. Richmond has 12, which doesn’t include top-30 picks Sonsie, Brown and Banks, who’ve all shown promising signs that I’m sure will come to the fore in 2024.




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[Mr Meow]

Have you not heard the saying ‘lies, damned lies, and statistics’ ? It doesn’t mean I think you’re lying, it means stats can be used in any which way to bolster an argument.

For example … players on each list under 24yo to have played 15 games or more over the last 2 x seasons:

Richmond: 12
Geelong: 4

So yes, Geelong’s 4 are looking more established, but there’s only 4 of them which is a concern. Richmond has 12, which doesn’t include top-30 picks Sonsie, Brown and Banks, who’ve all shown promising signs that I’m sure will come to the fore in 2024.




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Admit it though (and I always enjoy it), the arbitrary guidelines you always draw endorse this philosophy as whole heartedly as anyone here. And I repeat, it is enjoyable. You could've been a propaganda guy in former eras.

 

[Footy Smarts]

For example … players on each list under 24yo to have played 15 games or more over the last 2 x seasons:

Richmond: 12

But unlike my statistics that are true, this one of yours is false.

Richmond have 9 players to play 15+ games over the last 2 seasons who are under 24. They are:

Mansell
Koschitzke (at Hawthorn)
Ross
Ryan
Cumberland
Ralphsmith
Rioli
Gibcus
Clarke

Let's be honest, if Richmond get 1 A-grader, 1 B-grader and a role player or two out of that lot they'll be ecstatic.

The only reason each of them keep rotating in and out of the side is because there isn't a single player under 24 on Richmond's list to have grabbed their opportunity with both hands and locked in a best 22 position.

 

[Fadge]

I guess we only missed the Prelim the year before by a kick, so we were desperate this year and Hardwick was not a gambler in his last year or two of coaching.

You do realise there is another final a team has to play (and win) in order to make a Preliminary Final if they were to win an Elimination Final?

 

[Footy Smarts]

You do realise there is another final a team has to play (and win) in order to make a Preliminary Final if they were to win an Elimination Final?

Nah if you listened to Hardwick they were guaranteed the flag if the decision against Brisbane had gone their way.

 

[BF Tiger]

Nah if you listened to Hardwick they were guaranteed the flag if the decision against Brisbane had gone their way.

And if you listened to Chris Scott dynasty Richmond(17-20) were not as good as no-flag St Kilda (09-10).

Coaches say a lot of dumb things.

 

[Fadge]

And if you listened to Chris Scott dynasty Richmond(17-20) were not as good as no-flag St Kilda (09-10).

Coaches say a lot of dumb things.

Chris Scott speaks the truths Richmond supporters don't want to hear.

Many people who followed the game throughout both eras have the same opinion.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You do realise there is another final a team has to play (and win) in order to make a Preliminary Final if they were to win an Elimination Final?

Lmao. A Collingwood supprter of all people, coming to a Richmond and Geelong thread at the behest of absolutely nobody, lecturing Richmond supporters about winning finals.


Just for some perspective so people can enjoy the irony of this from an informed position....

Collingwood finals win % = 45%

Richmond finals win % = 60%

 

[BF Tiger]

Chris Scott speaks the truths Richmond supporters don't want to hear.

Many people who followed the game throughout both eras have the same opinion.

They'll be talking about that St Kilda side in a hundred years I reckon. Up their with the great preliminaryship teams.

 

[Fadge]

Lmao. A Collingwood supprter of all people, coming to a Richmond and Geelong thread at the behest of absolutely nobody, lecturing Richmond supporters about winning finals.


Just for some perspective so people can enjoy the irony of this from an informed position....

Collingwood finals win % = 45%

Richmond finals win % = 60%

Collingwood: 87.5/191 gives you your circa 45%

Richmond: 56.5/94 gives you your circa 60%

But given you like percentages so much:
Collingwood have played in 103% more finals than Richmond;
Collingwood have won 55% more finals than Richmond.

But I guess that's what happens when your team spends multiple decades at a time, on multiple occasions, as a non-competitive entity...

 

[Fadge]

They'll be talking about that St Kilda side in a hundred years I reckon. Up their with the great preliminaryship teams.

Probably not.

But that's what happens when people base their knowledge and opinions on statistics and history books without actually having watched the teams in question perform.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Admit it though (and I always enjoy it), the arbitrary guidelines you always draw endorse this philosophy as whole heartedly as anyone here. And I repeat, it is enjoyable. You could've been a propaganda guy in former eras.

Of course … we all do it and I don’t dispute I’m not involved - but don’t pretend you’re not in seat 1A on this bandwagon of selective stats and date ranges….


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[Noidnadroj]

But unlike my statistics that are true, this one of yours is false.

Richmond have 9 players to play 15+ games over the last 2 seasons who are under 24. They are:

Mansell
Koschitzke (at Hawthorn)
Ross
Ryan
Cumberland
Ralphsmith
Rioli
Gibcus
Clarke

Let's be honest, if Richmond get 1 A-grader, 1 B-grader and a role player or two out of that lot they'll be ecstatic.

The only reason each of them keep rotating in and out of the side is because there isn't a single player under 24 on Richmond's list to have grabbed their opportunity with both hands and locked in a best 22 position.

Balta and Miller were 23yo when they played their 15 games… but my bad on Dow … he’d played 10..

So in the interests of clarity : players over the last 2 x seasons who played 10+ games who were 23yo or under when those 10 games were played:

Richmond: 13
Geelong: 5

I’m not concerned youngsters found it hard to cement a permanent spot in a team coming off a dynasty, particularly when Richmond still has so many quality senior players in that 24-30yo age range.

My main gripe from 2023 was playing Pickett and McIntosh every week regardless of form …. that was Dimma and McQualter’s loyalty … as well as the fact we already had 5 x players with under 30-games playing every week.

If we get to the end of 2024 and there’s not at least 7-8 players under 26yo and 3-4 23yo or younger to be permanent fixtures in the team I’ll be very worried.


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[garlic munchers]

Ranking the young cores of all 18 AFL clubs in 2024

Which AFL teams have the best young cores in the league? We've ranked them from 1 to 18.

www.sen.com.au

Seems the SEN analysts rate Geelong's youth ahead of Richmond's, but it really is a classic cripple fight...

More than a few absolute clangers by SEN in that rating.

Says the Bombers have one of the best cohorts of young players then ranks them 13/18.

Ranks Cambell Chesser as being one of the five best for WC in preference to a Bailey William's who solidly lead the ruck for WC and held his own again his peers.



Saying that, look to be right in their analysis of Cats v Tigers.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Chris Scott speaks the truths Richmond supporters don't want to hear.

Many people who followed the game throughout both eras have the same opinion.

The sands of time muddle people’s memory … the Saints had 1 x dominant H&A season .. just one, which was 2009. They weren’t dominant in finals, with 28 and 7 points wins going into the GF.

Everyone sort of just lumps 2010 in with 2009. In 2010 Saints were 5-3 after 8 rounds. They ended the season third on the ladder with 15-wins and a % of 121%. They won just 5 of their last 11 games of the season including finals.

So yes, they were a very good team in 2010, but just a standard top-4 team. They were clearly an inferior team in the 2010 drawn GF, and then got flogged in the GF to provide a more accurate reflection of their quality.

Saints made a PF in 2008 and finals again in 2011. Let’s see the quality across the same period as Tigers of 2017-20:

Home and Away;
Saints: 60 wins. 26 losses. 2 draws
Richmond: 61 wins. 21 losses. 1 draw
Tigers win 73.5% v 68.2%.

Finals:
Saints: 5 wins. 5 losses. 1 draw
Richmond: 10 wins. 2 losses
Tigers win 83.3% v 45.5%

Flags:
Saints: zero
Tigers: 3

Finals wins over 5-goals:
Saints: 1
Tigers: 8

Finals losses by over 5-goals:
Saints: 3
Tigers: 1


I’m happy to concede the ‘home and away’ Saints of 2009 across that 22-game stretch could be held up as a worthy comparison. But that’s where it begins and ends, and we all know H&A means nothing in reality (just ask the Tigers of 2018). There’s not really anything other than a fanciful dance down memory lane which doesn’t involve any actual facts to put the Saints of that era into the conversation with Richmond 2017-20.

Unless of course you value H&A performance in a single season over finals performances and flags over 4-years.


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[Noidnadroj]

Lmao. A Collingwood supprter of all people, coming to a Richmond and Geelong thread at the behest of absolutely nobody, lecturing Richmond supporters about winning finals.


Just for some perspective so people can enjoy the irony of this from an informed position....

Collingwood finals win % = 45%

Richmond finals win % = 60%

Something happened around Xmas 1936 that remains a great mystery to this day:

Prior to 1936 Grand Finals winning %
Pies: 55%
Tigers: 40%

Post 1936:
Pies: 20%
Tigers: 64%

5 wins from their last 20 grand finals … and if not for home ground advantage in 2010 and 2023 it would’ve been 3…. I wonder if any other sport across the world has seen such excellence in everything except the most important game.


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[Noidnadroj]

Probably not.

But that's what happens when people base their knowledge and opinions on statistics and history books without actually having watched the teams in question perform.

So outside of R1-22 2009, which period of that Saints era warms the cockles of your heart the most to rate them superior to Richmond 2017-20? Or is 22 H&A games all that’s needed to be in the conversation?


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[MCG-Unit]

Voted Geelong

 

[Scritchyscroony]

Have you not heard the saying ‘lies, damned lies, and statistics’ ? It doesn’t mean I think you’re lying, it means stats can be used in any which way to bolster an argument.

For example … players on each list under 24yo to have played 15 games or more over the last 2 x seasons:

Richmond: 12
Geelong: 4

So yes, Geelong’s 4 are looking more established, but there’s only 4 of them which is a concern. Richmond has 12, which doesn’t include top-30 picks Sonsie, Brown and Banks, who’ve all shown promising signs that I’m sure will come to the fore in 2024.




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Bird in the hand.
I'd rather be Geelong with 4 confirmed and established players performing well in the seniors than Richmond with 12 yo- yoing in and out.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Balta and Miller were 23yo when they played their 15 games… but my bad on Dow … he’d played 10..

So in the interests of clarity : players over the last 2 x seasons who played 10+ games who were 23yo or under when those 10 games were played:

Richmond: 13
Geelong: 5

That's it. Make sure you fix up the limits to ensure it looks better for Richmond.

The irony is the stat you highlight shows the exact problem for Richmond. The 21-23 year olds Richmond have tried look awful. So bad that they've kept rotating the players they've tried and not one has taken the chance.

Most of those guys (Dow, Ralphsmith, Mansell, Cumberland, Rioli, Ross, Koschitzke, Miller) right now either look like spuds or fringe foot soldiers at best. There's a decent chance none of these are on an AFL list in 3 years.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Bird in the hand.
I'd rather be Geelong with 4 confirmed and established players performing well in the seniors than Richmond with 12 yo- yoing in and out.

Yep.

Even from Richmond you would much prefer the youngsters who don't make the list but might still develop (Sonsie, Banks, Brown, etc) over the guys that just look not up to it (Ralphsmith, Koschitzke, Dow, etc).

 

[Fadge]

The sands of time muddle people’s memory … the Saints had 1 x dominant H&A season .. just one, which was 2009. They weren’t dominant in finals, with 28 and 7 points wins going into the GF.

Everyone sort of just lumps 2010 in with 2009. In 2010 Saints were 5-3 after 8 rounds. They ended the season third on the ladder with 15-wins and a % of 121%. They won just 5 of their last 11 games of the season including finals.

So yes, they were a very good team in 2010, but just a standard top-4 team. They were clearly an inferior team in the 2010 drawn GF, and then got flogged in the GF to provide a more accurate reflection of their quality.

Saints made a PF in 2008 and finals again in 2011. Let’s see the quality across the same period as Tigers of 2017-20:

Home and Away;
Saints: 60 wins. 26 losses. 2 draws
Richmond: 61 wins. 21 losses. 1 draw
Tigers win 73.5% v 68.2%.

Finals:
Saints: 5 wins. 5 losses. 1 draw
Richmond: 10 wins. 2 losses
Tigers win 83.3% v 45.5%

Flags:
Saints: zero
Tigers: 3

Finals wins over 5-goals:
Saints: 1
Tigers: 8

Finals losses by over 5-goals:
Saints: 3
Tigers: 1


I’m happy to concede the ‘home and away’ Saints of 2009 across that 22-game stretch could be held up as a worthy comparison. But that’s where it begins and ends, and we all know H&A means nothing in reality (just ask the Tigers of 2018). There’s not really anything other than a fanciful dance down memory lane which doesn’t involve any actual facts to put the Saints of that era into the conversation with Richmond 2017-20.

Unless of course you value H&A performance in a single season over finals performances and flags over 4-years.

Again, you're simply comparing numbers with zero consideration of relative strength of opposition at the time.

Opposition teams for St. Kilda between 2008 and 2011 include:
Geelong 2008
Hawthorn 2008
Geelong 2009
Collingwood 2010
Geelong 2010
Geelong 2011
Collingwood 2011
Hawthorn 2011

The strongest opposition team of Richmond's between 2017 and 2020 would not be fit to tie the shoelaces of any of the above 8 teams.

 

[Grrr]

You do realise there is another final a team has to play (and win) in order to make a Preliminary Final if they were to win an Elimination Final?

Yes, should have said going deep into the finals, which is what I meant.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Yep.

Even from Richmond you would much prefer the youngsters who don't make the list but might still develop (Sonsie, Banks, Brown, etc) over the guys that just look not up to it (Ralphsmith, Koschitzke, Dow, etc).

It’s a numbers game. Richmond have 18 players on their list under 24yo who’ve tasted senior footy. What are the odds 15 turn out spuds? We only need 6-7 of the 18 to turn into senior regulars and our list build is in great shape.

A bunch of them look unlikely (eg Ralphsmith, MRJ) , but I’ve got great confidence we will get 6-7 of the following become senior staples by end of 2024: Sonsie, Clarke, Banks, Gibcus, Brown, Dow, Coulthard, Cumberland, Ryan, Tresize and Bauer.

I don’t know exactly which 6-7 it will be, but you can save this and re-post it in August 2024 … and with a very strong draft hand end of next year and loads of cap space freeing up we are looking OK


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