Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Caligo]

Again, you're simply comparing numbers with zero consideration of relative strength of opposition at the time.

Opposition teams for St. Kilda between 2008 and 2011 include:
Geelong 2008
Hawthorn 2008
Geelong 2009
Collingwood 2010
Geelong 2010
Geelong 2011
Collingwood 2011
Hawthorn 2011

The strongest opposition team of Richmond's between 2017 and 2020 would not be fit to tie the shoelaces of any of the above 8 teams.

Yep. We are in a weak era and have been since a lacklustre doggies won a pretty shocking flag. It is why some pretty average teams like Richmond and Geelong could actually compete next year if they get a bit of luck.

Those sorts of teams wouldn't get close in any of the years you listed.

 

[Caligo]

It’s a numbers game. Richmond have 18 players on their list under 24yo who’ve tasted senior footy. What are the odds 15 turn out spuds? We only need 6-7 of the 18 to turn into senior regulars and our list build is in great shape.

A bunch of them look unlikely (eg Ralphsmith, MRJ) , but I’ve got great confidence we will get 6-7 of the following become senior staples by end of 2024: Sonsie, Clarke, Banks, Gibcus, Brown, Dow, Coulthard, Cumberland, Ryan, Tresize and Bauer.

I don’t know exactly which 6-7 it will be, but you can save this and re-post it in August 2024 … and with a very strong draft hand end of next year and loads of cap space freeing up we are looking OK


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Only 15 turning out spuds would be an incredibly good result for you.

 

[Grrr]

That's it. Make sure you fix up the limits to ensure it looks better for Richmond.

The irony is the stat you highlight shows the exact problem for Richmond. The 21-23 year olds Richmond have tried look awful. So bad that they've kept rotating the players they've tried and not one has taken the chance.

Most of those guys (Dow, Ralphsmith, Mansell, Cumberland, Rioli, Ross, Koschitzke, Miller) right now either look like spuds or fringe foot soldiers at best. There's a decent chance none of these are on an AFL list in 3 years.

Dow has been kept out of our side because he is an inside mid, and we just acquired 2 from GWS and Cotchin kept him out. He was given nothing by Hardwick and when he finally got 3 games in the last 3 rounds he was very good. 27 disposals against Port's pretty handy midfield had him in the best few on ground. He's young and needed to get bigger, like a lot of young players. He is in most Richmond posters best 22.

Cumberland could be very good, another of Hardwick's need to learn the defensive side players hard done by's. Even when he was good he was dropped. Frustrated a lot of posters by the end of his reign did Hardwick. Ross had a very good year and is a good footballer. Banks, Brown and Trezise all looked good in their brief opportunity. How Banks was dropped after being in the best players was another of Hardwick's master strokes.

You only need two or three good young players to come on each year to build a list. Gibcus will be one, 2 or 3 others in any side is all generally you need and there is no reason why the players I've mentioned can't be those players. And with a new coach, those kids will have a lot more energy.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Again, you're simply comparing numbers with zero consideration of relative strength of opposition at the time.

Opposition teams for St. Kilda between 2008 and 2011 include:
Geelong 2008
Hawthorn 2008
Geelong 2009
Collingwood 2010
Geelong 2010
Geelong 2011
Collingwood 2011
Hawthorn 2011

The strongest opposition team of Richmond's between 2017 and 2020 would not be fit to tie the shoelaces of any of the above 8 teams.

No, I’m taking into account the strength of opposition. And zero flags to 3 and 1 dominant final to 8 and 1 x dominant season to 4 doesn’t come close to bridging the gap.

And whilst the top end might have been strong in the 2008-2011 era, the middle to bottom was generally crud, so a quality team could rack up easy H&A wins far more regularly than they can now with far greater depth of competition.

Back then we had expansion teams, no soft cap, inequalities in facilities, no bid matching for father-sons etc… it resulted in a few teams able to thrive at the top and loads of teams being unable to compete - that to me isn’t necessarily a strong competition… it’s more like the EPL where most teams are making up the numbers.



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[Footy Smarts]

Dow has been kept out of our side because he is an inside mid, and we just acquired 2 from GWS

You sold the farm for 2 mature players in his position. Says everything you need to know about how he's rated internally. Might they have misjudged? Maybe but unlikely.

Cumberland could be very good, another of Hardwick's need to learn the defensive side players hard done by's. Even when he was good he was dropped.

Yeah I mean if a legendary coach and his protege are both completely wrong about him he might make it. Again seems unlikely.

Ross had a very good year and is a good footballer.

Jack Ross didn't finish in the top 20 of the B&F despite playing the 14th most games. He was dropped early in the year and again near the back end of the year (given a reprieve due to an injury).

Calling that "a very good year" is exceedingly generous. He's 5 years into his career and has yet to solidify a best 22 spot. Again he's very unlikely to be better than an ok role player.

 

[Shadow89]

It’s a numbers game. Richmond have 18 players on their list under 24yo who’ve tasted senior footy. What are the odds 15 turn out spuds? We only need 6-7 of the 18 to turn into senior regulars and our list build is in great shape.

A bunch of them look unlikely (eg Ralphsmith, MRJ) , but I’ve got great confidence we will get 6-7 of the following become senior staples by end of 2024: Sonsie, Clarke, Banks, Gibcus, Brown, Dow, Coulthard, Cumberland, Ryan, Tresize and Bauer.

I don’t know exactly which 6-7 it will be, but you can save this and re-post it in August 2024 … and with a very strong draft hand end of next year and loads of cap space freeing up we are looking OK


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And I have confidence that Bruhn, O. Henry, Holmes, SDK, Dempsey, Knevitt, O'Sullivan, J. Clark, Conway, G. Stevens and Mullin, will be probably senior regulars by the time 2025 rocks around.

Just because some of them haven't got as much/any exposure yet, doesn't mean they're not a good cohort. Most have agreed on here that of the established under 23 group - Geelong has Richmond covered.

Who knows how it will turn out for either group that's not established yet, but our 4 has shown a lot more than the 12 from Richmond. Everything else is speculation.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

I still enjoy the game, but I used to watch most games regardless of my team but now I don't mind missing games.
I love our premiership dynasty from 2017-2020 never thought I would see us win flag let alone 3.

It may be more skilled now but in my opinion AFL was at it's peak in the mid 90s early 2000s before all rule changes every year it was a lot more pure and less soft/officiated.

I would agree with that.

Defenders/backmen are almost being ruled out of the game, so many soft/unwarranted free kicks awarded to forwards (yes I admit Charlie Curnow gets quite a lot of gifts from umpires)

 

[Morro]

You sold the farm for 2 mature players in his position. Says everything you need to know about how he's rated internally. Might they have misjudged? Maybe but unlikely.



Yeah I mean if a legendary coach and his protege are both completely wrong about him he might make it. Again seems unlikely.



Jack Ross didn't finish in the top 20 of the B&F despite playing the 14th most games. He was dropped early in the year and again near the back end of the year (given a reprieve due to an injury).

Calling that "a very good year" is exceedingly generous. He's 5 years into his career and has yet to solidify a best 22 spot. Again he's very unlikely to be better than an ok role player.

Dow is 50/50 to make it but showed he has the ability at the end of the season, has been terribly impacted by injuries

Cumberland is a very good player who clearly fell out with the coach and not played to his strengths, I doubt you have seen enough to know for yourself.

Jack Ross had a breakout season and was dropped after 25 posessions(?) Sadly Dimma and co used the kids as scape goats and relied on the senior blokes when in fact they were the problem.

 

[Morro]

And I have confidence that Bruhn, O. Henry, Holmes, SDK, Dempsey, Knevitt, O'Sullivan, J. Clark, Conway, G. Stevens and Mullin, will be probably senior regulars by the time 2025 rocks around.

Just because some of them haven't got as much/any exposure yet, doesn't mean they're not a good cohort. Most have agreed on here that of the established under 23 group - Geelong has Richmond covered.

Who knows how it will turn out for either group that's not established yet, but our 4 has shown a lot more than the 12 from Richmond. Everything else is speculation.

I agree with that, despite the comparisons, our lists just aren't even in the same stage at all.

 

[Shadow89]

I agree with that, despite the comparisons, our lists just aren't even in the same stage at all.

Bingo.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

No, I’m taking into account the strength of opposition. And zero flags to 3 and 1 dominant final to 8 and 1 x dominant season to 4 doesn’t come close to bridging the gap.

And whilst the top end might have been strong in the 2008-2011 era, the middle to bottom was generally crud, so a quality team could rack up easy H&A wins far more regularly than they can now with far greater depth of competition.

Back then we had expansion teams, no soft cap, inequalities in facilities, no bid matching for father-sons etc… it resulted in a few teams able to thrive at the top and loads of teams being unable to compete - that to me isn’t necessarily a strong competition… it’s more like the EPL where most teams are making up the numbers.



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Fadge at it again.

It is simple this. There have been 4 teams in the 127 year history of the competition to win 3 Premierships and another Minor Premiership within a 4 year period. Richmond are one of those. The others?

Collingwood machine team mid to late 1920's.

Melbourne all time great team mid to late 1950's.

Hawthorn 2012-15.

That is it. And Richmond is the only team to do it against as many as 17 equally funded opposition football departments with all those clubs active for long enough to have no excuse not to be competitive. This may never be achieved again.

There are roughly 1500 teams who played in an AFL season and did not win a Premiership, representing 21 different clubs. St Kilda in 2009 was one of those 1500. No other St Kilda year is even worth talking about.

In Fadge's mangled twisted Richmond hating-with-an-obsession mind this means St Kilda in that era were a better team than Richmond 2017-20 who achieved historically noteworthy feats, and were the only team to have done so against a competition full of equally funded teams.

These "super-era" teams Geelong, Collingwood and St Kilda were so great, that they won exactly 3 flags between them over a 4 year period. The exact amount Richmond won on their own over the same period. Only Richmond achieved it against 17 equally funded opponents. Geelong, Collingwood and St Kilda 2008-11 combined did it against less opponents and less still who were competitively funded and equipped.

Yet Fadge has the least of those teams, St Kilda, 10+ goals ahead of a Richmond dynasty team that achieved something over a 4 year period that has only been done by the most dominant teams in history.....

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Bingo.

Whose list is more advanced then?

Richmond sold the farm apparently for players currently 26yo(Hopper) and 25yo(Taranto), and have Balta and Bolton, 2 x 24 years olds and these players plus 26 yo D Rioli, 25 yo Baker, 25yo Graham, 25yo Young, and probably 23yo Ross form a cohort way more advanced than Geelong's 26yo and under brigade.

Or am I missing something here?

 

[Footy Smarts]

Whose list is more advanced then?

Richmond sold the farm apparently for players currently 26yo(Hopper) and 25yo(Taranto), and have Balta and Bolton, 2 x 24 years olds and these players plus 26 yo D Rioli, 25 yo Baker, 25yo Graham, 25yo Young, and probably 23yo Ross form a cohort way more advanced than Geelong's 26yo and under brigade.

Or am I missing something here?

In terms of proven players 26 and under in the best 22 in 2023:

Hopper, Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham, Young, Bolton, Balta, Ross

O'Connor, Bowes, Z Guthrie, Close, J Henry, Stengle, Miers, de Koning, Bruhn, O Henry, Holmes

Richmond has a couple of stars. Geelong has much more scope for improvement and a couple more players. I'd take Geelong's names but I can understand people choosing differently.

The massive difference is Geelong has probably the most salary cap space in the league to target free agents and trades. Richmond have taken their big swing with Taranto and Hopper and the result looks uninspiring.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

In terms of proven players 26 and under in the best 22 in 2023:

Hopper, Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham, Young, Bolton, Balta, Ross

O'Connor, Bowes, Z Guthrie, Close, J Henry, Stengle, Miers, de Koning, Bruhn, O Henry, Holmes

Richmond has a couple of stars. Geelong has much more scope for improvement and a couple more players. I'd take Geelong's names but I can understand people choosing differently.

The massive difference is Geelong has probably the most salary cap space in the league to target free agents and trades. Richmond have taken their big swing with Taranto and Hopper and the result looks uninspiring.

Lol Hopper and Taranto are on about $700k each from a $15m cap. That is not a big swing. We took our big swings when signing Prestia $750k from a $12m cap, Martin $1.2m from an $11m cap and Lynch $950k from a $12m cap. Martin and Prestia expire after 2024, and Lynch after 2025 and Martin and Lynch are thought to be strongly back-ended, to the tune of almost $3m in 2024. So Geelong might have some cash to spend, but you can bet your socks Richmond will be in the market as well with plenty to spend.

Clubs are probably going to pay about $4.5m to their top 5 players under the new cap. Richmond after 2 big 2024 deals end and the 2025 one, will only be committed for:

$800k Bolton
$700k Hopper
$700k Taranto.

There will be another $2m + to spread between 2 players. You seem to be pretty wide of the mark with some of your sweeping statements re Richmond.

 

[Grrr]

You sold the farm for 2 mature players in his position. Says everything you need to know about how he's rated internally. Might they have misjudged? Maybe but unlikely.



Yeah I mean if a legendary coach and his protege are both completely wrong about him he might make it. Again seems unlikely.



Jack Ross didn't finish in the top 20 of the B&F despite playing the 14th most games. He was dropped early in the year and again near the back end of the year (given a reprieve due to an injury).

Calling that "a very good year" is exceedingly generous. He's 5 years into his career and has yet to solidify a best 22 spot. Again he's very unlikely to be better than an ok role player.

Dow was pick 21 in the draft, so rated enough. He has taken a bit longer, skinny kids do, especially one's who play inside mid. Would any club pass up on Taranto when he nominates you, no. Hopper fell in our lap so to speak. Would Dow replace Cotchin, no. Prestia, no. Sometimes kids have to learn the game proper in the VFL. This was my original point, the kids haven't had a real go. When he did get a go, he was very good.

Jack Ross was in everyone's best players the week he was dropped late in the season. Richmond posters were scratching their heads. Got a late reprieve with a last minute injury and was just about our best that game. Ross was also in our best 3 odd players as a half forward in the Brisbane 22 finals loss. He can play. Meanwhile on the other wing, MacIntosh who ended up getting dropped finished 10th? in the B & F. MacIntosh is in very few posters Best '24 side, Ross is in most.

As far as the legendary coach goes, all credit to him. In 2016 he was inches away from being sacked. Came back from OS with a whole new attitude which was a breathe of fresh air and the players loved it. Since our last Premiership we have finished, 12th, 7th and 13th and he quit mid season saying he had lost the passion and basically he had lost the players. There are very few posters on our board who are not embracing of the new coach, I imagine the players are the same. We all loved and respect Hardwick, but he did not coach well in 2023, especially the young players.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Lol Hopper and Taranto are on about $700k each from a $15m cap. That is not a big swing. We took our big swings when signing Prestia $750k from a $12m cap, Martin $1.2m from an $11m cap and Lynch $950k from a $12m cap. Martin and Prestia expire after 2024, and Lynch after 2025 and Martin and Lynch are thought to be strongly back-ended, to the tune of almost $3m in 2024. So Geelong might have some cash to spend, but you can bet your socks Richmond will be in the market as well with plenty to spend.

Clubs are probably going to pay about $4.5m to their top 5 players under the new cap. Richmond after 2 big 2024 deals end and the 2025 one, will only be committed for:

$800k Bolton
$700k Hopper
$700k Taranto.

There will be another $2m + to spread between 2 players. You seem to be pretty wide of the mark with some of your sweeping statements re Richmond.

Geelong doesn't have a single player contracted beyond 2026. We literally have our entire cap open to do what we want with.

Richmond has Rioli (2027), Short (2027), Bolton (2028), Hopper (2029) and Taranto (2029). That's 5 big money players locked into the cap to 2027+. There's no question that will limit your ability to bring in players compared to Geelong.

You also can't trade your next 2 year's first rounders to comply with the 2 in 4 year rule. So you would have among the least ability to target free agents or trades of any club. Geelong probably has the most.

 

[Mr Meow]

Lol Hopper and Taranto are on about $700k each from a $15m cap. That is not a big swing. We took our big swings when signing Prestia $750k from a $12m cap, Martin $1.2m from an $11m cap and Lynch $950k from a $12m cap. Martin and Prestia expire after 2024, and Lynch after 2025 and Martin and Lynch are thought to be strongly back-ended, to the tune of almost $3m in 2024. So Geelong might have some cash to spend, but you can bet your socks Richmond will be in the market as well with plenty to spend.

Clubs are probably going to pay about $4.5m to their top 5 players under the new cap. Richmond after 2 big 2024 deals end and the 2025 one, will only be committed for:

$800k Bolton
$700k Hopper
$700k Taranto.

There will be another $2m + to spread between 2 players. You seem to be pretty wide of the mark with some of your sweeping statements re Richmond.

700k for Hopper is scandalous.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Hopper fell in our lap so to speak.

Things tend to fall in your lap when you massively overpay for them.

 

[Fadge]

700k for Hopper is scandalous.

There's only one winner with that deal...

 

[Caligo]

There's only one winner with that deal...

There were at least 3 winners. Hopper, GWS and Green all won out of that trade in my book.

 

[Footy Smarts]

It’s a numbers game. Richmond have 18 players on their list under 24yo who’ve tasted senior footy. What are the odds 15 turn out spuds? We only need 6-7 of the 18 to turn into senior regulars and our list build is in great shape.

Under 18% of players who debut play 100 games. So if you say not playing 100 games makes them a spud 15 spuds is about what you would expect.

If a small player hasn't locked themselves in the best 22 after 3 years and a tall player after 4-5 years their odds are far worse than average. Guys like Dow, Ralphsmith, Miller, Mansell, Koschitzke, Cumberland and Rioli Jnr are exceedingly unlikely to make it in any meaningful way.

 

[Footy Smarts]

There were at least 3 winners. Hopper, GWS and Green all won out of that trade in my book.

It was definitely a win win win loss trade.

 

[Dr Tigris]

Amazing this thread is still going strong.

Right now I see a weak AFL. Both the Cats and Tigers can come back strong with a group of really good older players, some solid 25-30 age players and a good group of young guys with potential. If either club can step up to their potential I'd guess a surprise premiership is possible right here and now.

I know the Tigers much better. Right now if one of the young guys can become a decent AFL KPF and the midfield works to their potential and a couple of the kids step up to B grade then we are set for a deep run in September. All of that is well within possibility.

Similar situation for the Cats.

My guess is that in 5 years both teams will be top 4 contenders and other teams will be going 'wtf is going on, these guys were old over the hill teams just a year or 2 ago'

Well run clubs tend to do smart things. I thought Geelong was in a situation of no young guys, but they quickly focused and have done really well (grrr). The Tigers kept taking picks and doing trades. So both teams are in a nice spot, as long as they manage the transition from premiership teams well.

I'm not sure the super teams are going to make a come back. GWS and GC has the talent, but haven't got the team aspect yet. Worried that GWS will do it in 2024. Otherwise teams have more limited top end talent than in years gone by.

 

[Grrr]

Things tend to fall in your lap when you massively overpay for them.

Massively overpay? We will see.

 

[Caligo]

Massively overpay? We will see.

Yep. Lots of time to see. It looks a big overpay at this second though.