Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Meteoric Rise]

Beautiful cherry picking once again.

No mention that Richmond has played 1 more game. Or that extending that out to 23 really benefits Richmond's numbers.

Or that of those 39 games 8 haven't been full games (either sub or subbed) while only 2 of Geelong's 25 have been either as sub or subbed.

A couple of alternative stats:

21yo and younger games played:
Richmond - 22 (4.4 per game)
Geelong - 21 (5.25 per game)

Full games by 21yo and younger:
Richmond - 18 (3.6 per game)
Geelong - 19 (4.75 per game)

Coaches votes by players 23yo or younger:
Richmond - 0 (0 per game from 0 players)
Geelong - 20 (6.7 per game from 4 different players. Votes aren't out for this round yet).

I did miss the disparity between the 4 games played for Geelong and 5 for Richmond. Regardless, there are a few obvious points:

1. Richmond are having to play a lot more young players than Geelong.
2. Richmond in the most recent round average age was 15 months younger than Geelong.
3. Richmond average games played in the most recent round was 42 less than Geelong, and Cats will shoe-horn at least Dangerfield and C Guthrie back into their team yet.

As the year unfolds it is very clear we will see more games played in total by the Richmond youth than their Geelong counterparts, Richmond will also field teams that are appreciably younger on average, and a lot less experienced. Geelong will almost certainly play the following young players in every game they are fit for:

23yo DeKoning
21yo Bruhn, Henry, Holmes, Dempsey

And probably no other player under 25yo will command a regular spot in the best 22.

Richmond now look like selecting the following u/25yo in every game for which they are fit:

24yo Miller, Balta
23yo Mansell, Ross
22yo Dow
21yo M Rioli (Sonsie)
20yo Brown (Clarke)
19yo Campbell

Sonsie, Clarke I placed in brackets for now but if they get a decent run at it they will likely be regulars as well. There appears very little doubt Richmond will give a longer list of young players a larger number of games this season when compared to Geelong. It doesn't mean necessarily they are all better than your young players who are not being picked, but it does mean we should be in a better position to assess the Richmond youth by the end of 2024.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Will never be the same player again.

You have so many dud players. Far too many injury concerns as well.
Tigers to crash and burn and become irrelevant over the next 5 years. You know it too which is why you spend your free-time in these threads.

So let me get this straight...if I didn't "know" that Richmond were going to crash and burn and become irrelevant over the next 5 years, I wouldn't spend so much of my spare time on these threads. Makes sense.

MR - 13k posts in 16 years.
MT - 10k posts in 6 years.

Why do you spend so much of your spare time here?

 

[Muddiemoose]

Think the biggest issue for Geelong is Hawkins and Cameron

Backs and mids look pretty decent with a few young kids looking decent even as far as forwards go they have enough to keep them comfortable for now

I really like the look of Holmes who is basically that perfect modern mid mould

But as we know key forwards are very hard to find especially top liners

 

[Footy Smarts]

The Cats youngsters are in an easier school at the moment, and while plenty of them are looking good, only the 4 x 21yo's, Bruhn, Dempsey, Henry and Holmes, and 23yo DeKoning are currently cutting it at AFL level, and 19yo Clark of course looks a strong prospect.

I love this framing. We've "only" got those 5 guys who "are currently cutting it at AFL level". What you mean is we've got 5 guys that are trending towards being flat out A-graders.

SDK just have Naughton a bath on the weekend. Henry is coming off a top 15 finish in the Coleman and has gone up a level. Bruhn has exploded to look a super midfield talent. Holmes would be in discussion for AA if the season stopped now (coaches votes in 2/3 games). And Dempsey might well be the best of the lot.

Let's be honest. It might be "only" 5 of them but those 5 are miles and miles ahead of any Richmond player under 24.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Think the biggest issue for Geelong is Hawkins and Cameron

Backs and mids look pretty decent with a few young kids looking decent even as far as forwards go they have enough to keep them comfortable for now

I really like the look of Holmes who is basically that perfect modern mid mould

But as we know key forwards are very hard to find especially top liners

No doubt it's the obvious hole. We'll be going hard to fill it.

But worse case we can do with J Henry or SDK what you've done with Balta. Add in Ollie Henry and a great group of still young small forwards and that should be a decent forward line. And there are plenty of examples of premierships being won by teams with below average key forwards.

 

[Sttew]

23yo DeKoning
21yo Bruhn, Henry, Holmes, Dempsey

And probably no other player under 25yo will command a regular spot in the best 22.

Jhye Clark - has played in all 4 games this year
Toby Conway - Scott has already declared he will get as many games as possible without burning him, i.e., he will be managed because he is young. Toby is the future
Oisin Mullin

While the Cats are vying for finals they won't play youngsters just for the sake of it if the experienced players are performing. But Chris Scott has clearly signalled that in 2024 players like Tuohy, Stanley, Bews et al won't be automatic inclusions. It's all about managing the depth, and Geelong does that well. It's what the Cats have done for the past 18 years.

You only have to look at SDK. Drafted for 2020 season, played 1 game in 2021 before a breakout season in 2022 where he played 23 games. Cats will probably do the same with the top 10 draft pick for 2024 - Connor O'Sullivan.

 

[Muddiemoose]

No doubt it's the obvious hole. We'll be going hard to fill it.

But worse case we can do with J Henry or SDK what you've done with Balta. Add in Ollie Henry and a great group of still young small forwards and that should be a decent forward line. And there are plenty of examples of premierships being won by teams with below average key forwards.

Agree 100% it’s easy to get sucked into that mindset of wanting to “replace” those types as well when ultimately it’s an impossible task Hawkins is a club legend and in the top 5 (more like top 3) in his position over his career and Cameron when he is on could be seen in the argument as the best player in the comp

Like for like replacements are simply just not going to happen similar to Richmond with Riewoldt and now Lynch

Looking forward to see how both clubs try to fill these massive holes in time

 

[PhatBoy]

It’s interesting that a magical bar gets set at being ‘under 25’ to highlight this lack of depth or quality youth when at the moment in basically any given match that we win you can almost guarantee that Miers, Close, Stengle, Z Guthrie and Jack Henry

38

Jack Henry

Age

26

Ht

192cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.3

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

142.6

2star

D

8.6

2star

K

6.7

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.1

3star

MG

142.6

3star

D

9.6

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

2.6

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

4star

are a key part of it. All of whom ARE 25. Hell Miers WAS under 25 until a fortnight ago

What do they suddenly get arthritis when they check their licence?

 

[My Tilly]

“replace” those types

 

[Muddiemoose]

It’s interesting that a magical bar gets set at being ‘under 25’ to highlight this lack of depth or quality youth when at the moment in basically any given match that we win you can almost guarantee that Miers, Close, Stengle, Z Guthrie and Jack Henry are a key part of it. All of whom ARE 25. Hell Miers WAS under 25 until a fortnight ago

What do they suddenly get arthritis when they check their licence?

Tbf similar happens when looking at the tigers list
Taranto, Bolton, Rolli, Baker all in that bracket but tend to get lumped in as if they won’t be around long term whatever

 

[PhatBoy]

Tbf similar happens when looking at the tigers list
Taranto, Bolton, Rolli, Baker all in that bracket but tend to get lumped in as if they won’t be around long term whatever

No I agree completely it works both ways.

My biggest pet hate with football full stop is this obsession with seasons that won’t happen for another four years.

Who the hell cares

 

[Muddiemoose]

No I agree completely it works both ways.

My biggest pet hate with football full stop is this obsession with seasons that won’t happen for another four years.

Who the hell cares

Yeah without a doubt
even when we look at a thread like this we see people determine a best 22 for a few years time based on the list now disregarding the 3 or 4 drafts and trade periods that can change everything about how a team might look

 

[tiger_tough]

Bolton, Martin, Nankervis, Taranto, Rioli and Short were all good to outstanding. Almost enough to drag Richmond to another victory. The upper end of the list is performing well really.

From the young-ish players, Brown was good in defence and Ross workmanlike between the arcs. Campbell showed plenty again. MRJ did a few nice things.

Unfortunately there was the injury to McAuliffe. Not a lot shown by Dow, Lefau, Kozzy, Miller, Mansell or Young. I'm guessing these would be the 6 or 7 spots (besides Young) where returning senior players would slot straight back in.

Miller has been excellent and did a good job on Membrey. Young kept King to 1 goal and most of his marks far from goal.

 

[Footy Smarts]

1. Richmond are having to play a lot more young players than Geelong.

I love this. Not just more young players but a lot more young players.

So I checked the breakdown of the youngest 10 players between the teams this round. Must be 8-2 Richmond's way or something like that to count as "a lot more young players" right?

Richmond 5 - McAuliffe, Campbell, Brown, Sonsie, M Rioli
Geelong 5 - Clark, Dempsey, Holmes, O Henry, Bruhn

None of Geelong's were sub like McAuliffe either.

And if you want to go back to last week it was 5-5 again (6-5 Geelong's way of the youngest 11) and again one of those for Richmond was sub while none of Geelong's youngsters were.

But go on keep making stuff up

 

[tiger_tough]

Geelong are a fair way ahead but I really like what Richmond are showing.

They're playing with heart, and Yze seems to have the players on board and they're buying into how he wants them to play.

They need a couple trips to the draft, but this won't be a 5-10 year shitshow like some have suggested.

Are they really though?

Cats have played two bottom 4 teams (3 this weekend), Saints (9th) and Dogs (8th). We've played 3 top 6 teams, Saints and Suns, no one below 10th, and we've been decimated by injury.

We would've beat blues if we didn't lose 3 blokes in the 2nd quarter (including our FB and CHB, crucial against McKay and Curnow), and we more than likely would've beaten Saints if one of Balta and Lynch didn't both go down injured last week. Plus we had 6, yes 6, forced changes against Port and were within a goal in the last quarter.

Sure, they're way ahead on the ladder but as it stands Cats have been flattered by the draw while we have been dealt a rough hand so far.

Before cats fans lose their minds, I'm not saying we're better, because we're not. But a bit of context please.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I love this framing. We've "only" got those 5 guys who "are currently cutting it at AFL level". What you mean is we've got 5 guys that are trending towards being flat out A-graders.

SDK just have Naughton a bath on the weekend. Henry is coming off a top 15 finish in the Coleman and has gone up a level. Bruhn has exploded to look a super midfield talent. Holmes would be in discussion for AA if the season stopped now (coaches votes in 2/3 games). And Dempsey might well be the best of the lot.

Let's be honest. It might be "only" 5 of them but those 5 are miles and miles ahead of any Richmond player under 24.

Apart from the fact we currently have Tom Brown tracking at least as well as where any of them were as 20yo's, and Gibcus bar for injuries would likely be at least the equal of any of them.

I can see you are pretty excited by your only 5 players under 25 who are n your best 22 right now. But all tracking towards being A-graders is stretching things at this point, depending on what you think an A-grader is. To me it is a guy who could rightly command about 5.5% of the salary cap or more if you spilled all contracts. So these would be guys worth $800k+ in the current salary cap. DeKoning will probably get there. The rest are no good things. Richmond have a 25yo(Bolton), 24yo(Balta), already in that price range, and a 21yo(Gibcus) likely to get there, and now 20yo(Brown) looking like he could be a top class defender.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Jhye Clark - has played in all 4 games this year
Toby Conway - Scott has already declared he will get as many games as possible without burning him, i.e., he will be managed because he is young. Toby is the future
Oisin Mullin

While the Cats are vying for finals they won't play youngsters just for the sake of it if the experienced players are performing. But Chris Scott has clearly signalled that in 2024 players like Tuohy, Stanley, Bews et al won't be automatic inclusions. It's all about managing the depth, and Geelong does that well. It's what the Cats have done for the past 18 years.

You only have to look at SDK. Drafted for 2020 season, played 1 game in 2021 before a breakout season in 2022 where he played 23 games. Cats will probably do the same with the top 10 draft pick for 2024 - Connor O'Sullivan.

So Scott has omitted Conway from 3 out of 4 games this season to avoid burnout? I think we will count him as best 22 when he is a first choice player.

Clark is doubtless a good prospect, but is not exactly tearing it up at this point(understandably.) Is he going to be in your best 22 this season?

Mullin I have read there are good raps on him as an athlete, but he is a long way from being a winnng AFL player at this point from what I have seen.

I am not sure we are going to be in a great position to assess these guys in 2024.

 

[Sttew]

So Scott has omitted Conway from 3 out of 4 games this season to avoid burnout? I think we will count him as best 22 when he is a first choice player.

Clark is doubtless a good prospect, but is not exactly tearing it up at this point(understandably.) Is he going to be in your best 22 this season?

Mullin I have read there are good raps on him as an athlete, but he is a long way from being a winnng AFL player at this point from what I have seen.

I am not sure we are going to be in a great position to assess these guys in 2024.

I will ask the same question of you. Are McAuliffe, Campbell, Brown, Sonsie, & M Rioli in Richmond's best 22?

 

[Footy Smarts]

I will ask the same question of you. Are McAuliffe, Campbell, Brown, Sonsie, & M Rioli in Richmond's best 22?

Didn't you read? Brown's about to get an $800k+ contract.

You can't accuse the Tiger fans of keeping their kids under wraps. Played a nice game yesterday but I remember when Noah Cumberland was a star in the making (pretty sure he still is according to some).

 

[Grrr]

I will ask the same question of you. Are McAuliffe, Campbell, Brown, Sonsie, & M Rioli in Richmond's best 22?

Well Campbell, Brown and Rioli certainly would be right now. I and most of the Richmond board would play McAuliffe over Graham any day. Sonsie is being played forward, which he isn't so probably not Sonsie, even though he has a lot of talent.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I will ask the same question of you. Are McAuliffe, Campbell, Brown, Sonsie, & M Rioli in Richmond's best 22?

As I see it:

Brown yes.

Rioli yes.

They both bring elements nobody else on the list can produce. In Brown's case the elite kicking from defence. In Rioli's case the eye-catching pressure and tackling. Whilst near fit or in any sort of form, they should be best 22 selections.

Campbell and Sonsie are right on the fringe of best 22. Campbell is only just turned 19 and just needs to improve his decision making and precision a bit. No better way than learning on the job, so even if he is not absolute best 22 I am pretty sure he will stay in the team. But these positions we also have Clarke, Coulthard, Green vying for positions, and Graham, Baker, and Mansell seemingly established. Not necessarily a hot field, but a very even field.

McAuliffe it would be unrealistic to expect him to be in our best 22 right now as an inside mid in his first season.

By the end of this season it does look like a lot of these players will have played a lot of matches.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

There's 100 pages of this on our board. Structures, structures, structures.....

You can't really blame the new coach, he can't just waltz in and overnight change everything. Fortunately injuries have opened doors for players that we supporters have been impatient to see get a decent crack. Watch with interest as established players come back from injuries, who should go through the VFL, but for some reason we know that won't happen. Probably why we have advocated for our youth being not so bad on this thread before the season started, because most were running around the VFL, who are undefeated I think by the way (including preseason matches).

What really stood out to me on the weekend for tigers was thr best... It was

Richmond: Bolton, Martin, Nankervis, Taranto, Vlastuin

I think that sums up who is keeping richmond competitive. There is not much coming thru that is performing well. It is the old senior experienced heads driving the performances, which is not the case with geelong

 

[Tristan34]

Are they really though?

Cats have played two bottom 4 teams (3 this weekend), Saints (9th) and Dogs (8th). We've played 3 top 6 teams, Saints and Suns, no one below 10th, and we've been decimated by injury.

We would've beat blues if we didn't lose 3 blokes in the 2nd quarter (including our FB and CHB, crucial against McKay and Curnow), and we more than likely would've beaten Saints if one of Balta and Lynch didn't both go down injured last week. Plus we had 6, yes 6, forced changes against Port and were within a goal in the last quarter.

Sure, they're way ahead on the ladder but as it stands Cats have been flattered by the draw while we have been dealt a rough hand so far.

Before cats fans lose their minds, I'm not saying we're better, because we're not. But a bit of context please.

You are using the ladder as a reference to the cats easy draw??? We are four rounds in, the ladder fluctuates more than the stock market..

 

[Grrr]

What really stood out to me on the weekend for tigers was thr best... It was

Richmond: Bolton, Martin, Nankervis, Taranto, Vlastuin

I think that sums up who is keeping richmond competitive. There is not much coming thru that is performing well. It is the old senior experienced heads driving the performances, which is not the case with geelong

As has been pointed out a fair bit, your young players have been exposed for a few seasons, ours have not, for one reason or another. Of course our old players played well, that's what old players do. Guys like Dangerfield, Hawkins, Cameron and the rest of those very good older players also carried through your younger players when they were just starting.

If was a very good overall performance against a top side out considering we went in effectively without a half decent tall forward. Not just by older players, but by some of the kids with a handful of games under their belt. And when they have got a few decent seasons behind them they will be much better players. That's how transitions work. We have been close in all the games bar the first, Dusty hasn't had anything to do with that. Vlastuin is 29, Taranto 25, so they will be around for a while yet.

 

[tiger_tough]

You are using the ladder as a reference to the cats easy draw??? We are four rounds in, the ladder fluctuates more than the stock market..

Well do you think the crows and hawks will finish far outside of the bottom 4? Wouldn't have thought so. Will North? Nope.

Will saints and dogs likely end up somewhere around the middle of the ladder, as they are now? Most likely.

They've had a soft draw so far. Even going off last years full ladder, its one top 8 side (6th), and three bottom 4 sides plus crows (10th). It's not really up for debate.