Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Daka]

Short can be imprecise but he seems to get rated harshly by Tigers fans. I'd say he would be a bigger loss than a number of your current absentees.

I rate Short but he has been off lately, blasting high kicks where their not necessarily turnovers but aren't helping our forward entries.
needs to be better I know most of them were probably under pressure but some of them weren't.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Geelong are a fair way ahead but I really like what Richmond are showing.

They're playing with heart, and Yze seems to have the players on board and they're buying into how he wants them to play.

They need a couple trips to the draft, but this won't be a 5-10 year shitshow like some have suggested.

 

[PhatBoy]

Geelong are a fair way ahead but I really like what Richmond are showing.

They're playing with heart, and Yze seems to have the players on board and they're buying into how he wants them to play.

They need a couple trips to the draft, but this won't be a 5-10 year shitshow like some have suggested.

You certainly couldn’t accuse them of not having a go

 

[Mr Meow]

I rate Short but he has been off lately, blasting high kicks where their not necessarily turnovers but aren't helping our forward entries.
needs to be better I know most of them were probably under pressure but some of them weren't.

Holmes so far is like this, mixing quality possessions with blazing away kicks that are rarely to our advantage. Tidier disposal this year and he'd be bordering on elite.

Take Holmes out and we instantly lose a lot of drive between the arcs. I see Short like that at Richmond. The question is who are the next batch of damaging rebounding half backs at the club? Geelong have a similar case to solve.

 

[BF Tiger]

No-one is happy with 1-4, but there are positives.

Rd 0 - 10 goals down at half-time. Kept pushing, got the margin down to four goals but too big a hill to climb. This was against Dimma, who while not aware of our game plan had the best knowledge of our players.

Rd 1 - Loss to Carlton by five points. Led for large parts of the game, including in the last quarter. Very competitive. Injuries in game didn't help.

Rd 2 - Even first half where we took a two goal lead into half-time. Power started the second half with four goals to take back the lead. Writing was on the wall then. Battled on, didn't get blown away

Rd 3 - Great win against the Swans. Swans looked like they may have run away with it in the second half but kept composure and played it out for the win. Swans only led the game for 5-10 minutes either side of half-time

Rd 4 - A game of two halves that saw the Saints half be better than the Tigers half. A brainfade or two each quarter proved costly.

Games into young players. New coach and game plan look like they are sustainable.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Which is surprisingly common in today's game, particularly with rebuilding sides.

Watching Hawthorn, West Coast, & Norf over the last few years, there's been plenty games where it looks like several players are just topping up their super, or young players who are pretty happy to just live the AFL lifestyle and worry about winning later on.

That hasn't been the case for Richmond yet. It's only early, but it's promising.

No doubt they've been competitive. But it's early in the season where hope is still alive.

They were never going to be that bad this year. There are just too many good older players to be uncompetitive. I thought with a great injury run they could be top 8. Obviously that hasn't eventuated.

But look at today. Beaten by a mid table team playing more kids than Richmond are despite Richmond's best players being utterly superb. They're now 1-4 and the season is a bad month from being over.

How will the motivation be at that point? Then if they miss finals comfortably do guys like Baker, Short, Vlastuin, Rioli, etc have a think about whether Richmond can bring them the success they want during their careers?

All it takes is the standard retirements we know are coming and a couple of those mid aged guys leaving and they'll be a clear bottom 6 team. That will expose the younger players who let's be honest still look the worst group in the AFL. Just look at who they played today and ask where is Richmond's Owens, Wanganeen-Milera, Philippou, Wilson, etc.

It's the same position Hawthorn found themselves in a few years back. Since then I don't think the Hawks have made any major errors or are a basket case off field. But performance can fall away fast when you lose mature players and have very little coming through.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I think you're misinterpreting me.

I'm just saying Richmond are at the start of their rebuild, and there's some promising signs that they've got the coach right and the players have bought in. Nothing more, nothing less.

Like I said, they need to go to the draft, probably for 3 years to find their version of those players you mention...but they don't look like falling into a Norf/West Coast hole where they're a blight on the competition at this early stage.

Yep that's fair. I just wouldn't include Hawthorn in that list which is more the trajectory I see. Hawthorn are in the camp where they are suffering from 4-5 years of shortsighted recruiting rather than being an utter basket case like North or West Coast. I look at Richmond's recruiting from 2018-2023 and see similar to Hawthorn from the mid-late 2010s.

 

[Grrr]

Bolton, Martin, Nankervis, Taranto, Rioli and Short were all good to outstanding. Almost enough to drag Richmond to another victory. The upper end of the list is performing well really.

From the young-ish players, Brown was good in defence and Ross workmanlike between the arcs. Campbell showed plenty again. MRJ did a few nice things.

Unfortunately there was the injury to McAuliffe. Not a lot shown by Dow, Lefau, Kozzy, Miller, Mansell or Young. I'm guessing these would be the 6 or 7 spots (besides Young) where returning senior players would slot straight back in.

So I was a little surprised to read the best players this morning.
No Dusty and no Nank, best for St.Kilda.... Marshall. Think the correspondent might have been enjoying those Barossa red's during the game.

Dow was going okay but did an ankle and Miller was pretty good also, composed with the ball. Membrey got off the chain a bit in the last, but little impact for most of the game. Mansell was quiet but has been good.

 

[Grrr]

No doubt they've been competitive. But it's early in the season where hope is still alive.

They were never going to be that bad this year. There are just too many good older players to be uncompetitive. I thought with a great injury run they could be top 8. Obviously that hasn't eventuated.

But look at today. Beaten by a mid table team playing more kids than Richmond are despite Richmond's best players being utterly superb. They're now 1-4 and the season is a bad month from being over.

How will the motivation be at that point? Then if they miss finals comfortably do guys like Baker, Short, Vlastuin, Rioli, etc have a think about whether Richmond can bring them the success they want during their careers?

All it takes is the standard retirements we know are coming and a couple of those mid aged guys leaving and they'll be a clear bottom 6 team. That will expose the younger players who let's be honest still look the worst group in the AFL. Just look at who they played today and ask where is Richmond's Owens, Wanganeen-Milera, Philippou, Wilson, etc.

It's the same position Hawthorn found themselves in a few years back. Since then I don't think the Hawks have made any major errors or are a basket case off field. But performance can fall away fast when you lose mature players and have very little coming through.

Which older players weren't competitive. Dusty, Nankervis, Vlastuin, Rioli and Broad were pretty good to very good. Short was okay but there was nothing to kick to up the ground other than Bolton.

Graham, MacIntosh and Pickett are never much good, so nothing new there. We will be a better side with all three out and three good kids in, which will happen at some stage soonish with a bit of luck.

We would have won quite easily with Lynch and Balta playing forward.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Which older players weren't competitive. Dusty, Nankervis, Vlastuin, Rioli and Broad were pretty good to very good. Short was okay but there was nothing to kick to up the ground other than Bolton.

Graham, MacIntosh and Pickett are never much good, so nothing new there. We will be a better side with all three out and three good kids in, which will happen at some stage soonish with a bit of luck.

We would have won quite easily with Lynch and Balta playing forward.

No the older players are excellent. That's my point. You got done by an under strength mediocre team despite your older players being exceptional and Stkilda having really poor conversion while basically not turning up for the first half.

As an aside the disrespect shown to Graham by Richmond fans is astounding. He came in yesterday with no preparation and still had equal team high tackles and was constantly harassing. He's limited but clearly makes your team better. He's also a multiple premiership player who tries his guts out.

Meanwhile Ross runs around and gets the least impactful 24 touches you'll ever see (2 score involvements. Even Graham had more) while refusing to do anything defensively. Graham had more tackles yesterday than Ross has laid for the entire season. Yet Richmond posters are treating Ross like the second coming of Cotchin while blaming Graham for the loss. It's staggering disrespect to a multi premiership player who gives his all.

 

[juss]

I'm more positive in recent weeks with how our rebuild is coming along to my thoughts 6 weeks ago.

I think yesterday we played 10-11 players with less than 50 games experience. Many of those less than 30 and several with less than 10.

If you look at our performances, it's actually the older players that are letting us down overall, in most instances. Yes there are kids making mistakes, but you live with that. The Pickett, Macintosh, Graham types yesterday pretty much offered nothing.

If I look at 2025 and beyond, I'm excited to see another year development and 5/10/15 more games and a preseason into Ross, Rioli, Dow, McAulliffe, Brown, Mansell, Sonsie, Campbell, Young, Miller. Then you add in Gibcus, Balta adding a top 5 pick and potentially another good first rounder + a pick in the 20s when we exchange our points if we can, and a few others playing well in the VFL like Clarke, Ryan and Banks.

The question, like any team in the league, is how far can they go with a combination of improvement and then how far can the coach take them with gamestyle. It's not all about who has the most potential AAs on their list. I like the way Yze is getting their buy in, the weaning out of mistakes and the results will come in time, but he needs time (preseasons) to make that happen.

 

[Grrr]

No the older players are excellent. That's my point. You got done by an under strength mediocre team despite your older players being exceptional and Stkilda having really poor conversion while basically not turning up for the first half.

As an aside the disrespect shown to Graham by Richmond fans is astounding. He came in yesterday with no preparation and still had equal team high tackles and was constantly harassing. He's limited but clearly makes your team better. He's also a multiple premiership player who tries his guts out.

Meanwhile Ross runs around and gets the least impactful 24 touches you'll ever see (2 score involvements. Even Graham had more) while refusing to do anything defensively. Graham had more tackles yesterday than Ross has laid for the entire season. Yet Richmond posters are treating Ross like the second coming of Cotchin while blaming Graham for the loss. It's staggering disrespect to a multi premiership player who gives his all.

Both sides were understrength, we lost both our primary forwards, add Gibcus as the next most likely. They had King and Membrey, big difference and what counted in the end.

It was very congested on that small ground so a player like Graham has that advantage, because he is slow. He had 6 tackles because he is always second to the ball. Was in the centre circle for 46% of the centre bounces and 1 clearances and another barely a possession in there. Plenty of fumbles though. Unfair, yes it was on him, run him back through the VFL like good ordinary players should, then he would come in with at least some form. We have been putting up with average for a lot of years. He averages 16 possessions a game over his career as a mid/high half forward, Premiership player or not. Ross puts his head over the ball and uses it well, had 13 contested possessions and 4 centre clearances.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Both sides were understrength, we lost both our primary forwards, add Gibcus as the next most likely. They had King and Membrey, big difference and what counted in the end.

It was very congested on that small ground so a player like Graham has that advantage, because he is slow. He had 6 tackles because he is always second to the ball. Was in the centre circle for 46% of the centre bounces and 1 clearances and another barely a possession in there. Plenty of fumbles though. Unfair, yes it was on him, run him back through the VFL like good ordinary players should, then he would come in with at least some form. We have been putting up with average for a lot of years. He averages 16 possessions a game over his career as a mid/high half forward, Premiership player or not. Ross puts his head over the ball and uses it well, had 13 contested possessions and 4 centre clearances.

No Ross and Graham both had 4 clearances. Graham had 1 centre clearance while Ross had 0 despite Ross having slightly more centre bounce attendances.

Graham had 7 tackles. Ross has had 5 tackles for the season so far.

Ross "uses it well" but had more turnovers and less score involvements than Graham yesterday.

The difference in views from Richmond fans is astounding.

 

[Muddiemoose]

You certainly couldn’t accuse them of not having a go

As a cats fan what do you think of Tom Brown
I know his old man played for your mob

I might sound hyperbolic but in his few sr games he legitimately looks like the best field kick in our team

Making really impressive kicks through the corridor a couple times a game

 

[juss]

As a cats fan what do you think of Tom Brown
I know his old man played for your mob

I might sound hyperbolic but in his few sr games he legitimately looks like the best field kick in our team

Making really impressive kicks through the corridor a couple times a game

They often report a kid has elite kicking skills as a junior, then you watch them at AFL level and don't really see it, but at least with Brown the reports are true so far, kid has an elite right foot.

It could be media speculation but apparantly both Geelong and Sydney were very interested in him in his draft year, and it's speculated would have taken him at their next available picks. There might be some merit to the Geelong rumour given TB is a Geelong Grammar boy and likely watched closely down there by the Cats.

 

[Muddiemoose]

They often report a kid has elite kicking skills as a junior, then you watch them at AFL level and don't really see it, but at least with Brown the reports are true so far, kid has an elite right foot.

It could be media speculation but apparantly both Geelong and Sydney were very interested in him in his draft year, and it's speculated would have taken him at their next available picks. There might be some merit to the Geelong rumour given TB is a Geelong Grammar boy and likely watched closely down there by the Cats.

Funnily enough he’s also the one out of the 21 draft crop for Richmond that we had the most question marks as fans over coming into this year

But so far this year he would be our most impressive in terms of development of the questions over his game (contested side) and general skill

 

[PhatBoy]

As a cats fan what do you think of Tom Brown
I know his old man played for your mob

I might sound hyperbolic but in his few sr games he legitimately looks like the best field kick in our team

Making really impressive kicks through the corridor a couple times a game

To be honest I wasn’t aware of the connection and hadn’t payed specifically close attention to him when I’ve watched your games this year; I haven’t sat and watched a game from start to finish but probably quarters and halves at a time. Gee he looks composed I have to say, and very skillful. A coach can build so much with a player like that

 

[Footy Smarts]

As a cats fan what do you think of Tom Brown
I know his old man played for your mob

I might sound hyperbolic but in his few sr games he legitimately looks like the best field kick in our team

Making really impressive kicks through the corridor a couple times a game

He looks nicely composed.

I'm confused why he didn't get a game in his first 2 years until that last round dead rubber and then was left out early this year. You'd think they'd want to get games into him.

 

[Grrr]

No Ross and Graham both had 4 clearances. Graham had 1 centre clearance while Ross had 0 despite Ross having slightly more centre bounce attendances.

Graham had 7 tackles. Ross has had 5 tackles for the season so far.

Ross "uses it well" but had more turnovers and less score involvements than Graham yesterday.

The difference in views from Richmond fans is astounding.

Miss read the centre clearance thing. But Ross had 20 effective disposals including 13 contested possessions according to Footywire stats. They are good stats for an inside mid.

Graham plays a fair bit off half forward, so good chance he will have more score involvements. Ross has played 3 games at half forwar in his career and had 14 score involvements in one game against Essendon, and against Port three weeks ago he had 12 score involvements playing wing/midfield.

Graham had 3 score involvements this week and his best is 10 in his whole career, from nearly double his games, 80% as a forward. Yes the difference is astounding.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Richmond will be happy enough with their young brigade. By the end of 2024 a good half dozen of them should have found their feet in a role in the team.

The team is doing exceptionally well to not be in total disarray at present. The only players who have been in the role they played yesterday fairly consistently for the last 30+ games are:

Short, Nankervis, D Rioli, Bolton, Vlastuin, McIntosh, Broad. Martin, Pickett and probably Jack Graham

34

Jack Graham

Age

26

Ht

181cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

6.8

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

6.3

5star

CL

1.8

4star

D

11.8

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

6.5

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

4.2

5star

CL

1.2

4star

D

14.0

4star

K

6.0

3star

HB

8.0

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

7.0

5star

CL

3.2

5star

have played the role they were assigned yesterday plenty of times in the past. That is 10 players. Taranto is approaching 30 games would make 11. The other 13 are basically unfamiliar with each other and the team and their precise roles within the team. But most of the other 12 players are giving some cause for optimism.

Ross - Still only 23yo. Has parts of his game working quite well, seems poor defensively though and is nowhere near damaging enough to justify overlooking that. At worst a fringe AFL player, at best a decent player, the jury is still partly out on him imo.

Brown - 2021 pick 17 who is starting to really look the goods. Clearly a terrific kick, and seems to use his body well in 1 v 1's. Just 20 years old and needs to build a tank and tidy some things up but the club would be rapt with what he is showing.

Campbell - only just turned 19 years. Making plenty of understandable errors but looks a great mover and a very good find in the rookie draft.

Sonsie - Just turned 21. Starting to look more competitive, not a total natural for his current role as a small forward. Unsure where he will slot in eventually, but some encouraging signs from him in an extremely disjointed forward line.

Dow - Still just 22. The club is compelled to keep playing him for now. He looks a little below the required curve for an inside mid from my vantage point, but he is showing something in the last couple of matches. At worst he should be a reasonable relief inside mid at AFL level, different type of player but perhaps in the way Parfitt is for Geelong.

Mansell - 23yo 4th year player who has clearly stepped up a level this season. Never going to be one of your top players but looks competent in his role now.

Young - 25yo 2nd year player. Still learning the game, but acquitting himself well enough. Will only get better as he comes to understand his role more. He looks a long termer in his role to me and may eventually be used a little bit similarly to how Grimes played in our strong teams.

Miller - 24yo finally getting a chance to settle in a suitable role. Not a superstar, but looks pretty comfortable as the first or second key defender, I believe the club will be happy with him and starting to pencil him into the future team in this role.

Koschitzke - 23yo I am trying to give him a reasonable chance to adjust to his role and the team etc. Something seems to be missing in his game as a key forward. He seemed to really enjoy his role as second ruck yesterday, albeit v undersized opponents. Tough to see him being more than a relief player ultimately.

Maurice Rioli - 21yo showing plenty. Never going to be a silky polished forward but his defensive and pressure work is next level. In an otherwise stable functioning forward line he will be a huge asset.

Lefau - 25yo 3 game veteran who seems to be showing us a little more with each outing. Really tough initiation for him into a forward line where hardly anybody has played games together, so connection is of course very difficult. Showing enough to suggest he might have something, but remains speculative for now.

McAuliffe. 19yo first year inside mid, who in some ways looks physically equipped for the role. Will need to learn a lot and build a tank, but the club will be rapt with what he is doing to this point.

Others

Gibcus - 21yo. Shown plenty to suggest he will be a class defender, brutalised by injury early. Imo the club could have managed him a bit more conservatively, but he has many years ahead of him, and should become a class player.

Trezise - 21yo. Looks a potential long term player, possibly most similar to Broad for us.

Clarke - 20yo. Another who has shown more than enough at this young age. Had some injury concerns this season and I am pretty sure he is injured at present though not listed as that. Still every reason to believe he can be a decent player.

Bauer - 21yo mid-sized 3rd tall plays either end. Not seen yet this year at any level due to injury and other issues but was developing nicely last year.

Banks - Only just turned 21. Plenty of our supporters are down on him at the moment after 1-2 quiet games. Expect him to get a run of games at VFL level, and still plenty of reasons to be optimistic about what he can do as he gets stronger physically.

Ryan - 23yo promising young ruck/forward who will need to make it as a ruck really. He is getting quite dominant at VFL level, but still not strong enough physically v AFL rucks. Otherwise skills and ruck work are more than decent.

Green, Smith - very young especially Smith who has just turned 19 recently. Both look tidy players but there is a lot of competition at AFL level for the roles they play.


If you look at Geelong's best 22, their median age is 28. Richmond also has the following players at or below that age:

28 - Short
27 - Hopper
26 - D Rioli, Baker, Taranto, Graham
25 - Bolton
24 - Balta

So there is plenty of future value in this Richmond list, and I think after 2024 this group should look more valuable than they do now. The Cats youngsters are in an easier school at the moment, and while plenty of them are looking good, only the 4 x 21yo's, Bruhn, Dempsey, Henry and Holmes, and 23yo DeKoning are currently cutting it at AFL level, and 19yo Clark of course looks a strong prospect.

It remains difficult to line these rebuilds up, but 2024 should tell us plenty about Richmond's in particular as their youngsters will play a lot more games.

So far in 2024 the Cats have played 25 games into players 23yo or less, and 8 players are involved in that. The corresponding figure for Richmond is 39 games and 14 players 23 and under have taken the field already in 5 matches.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

He looks nicely composed.

I'm confused why he didn't get a game in his first 2 years until that last round dead rubber and then was left out early this year. You'd think they'd want to get games into him.

He had injury setbacks and also didn't(and probably still doesn't) have much of a tank. Also with the younger players it partially relies on a spot opening up for them as well. Regardless, he looks good enough now to command a spot in the best 22.

 

[Muddiemoose]

He looks nicely composed.

I'm confused why he didn't get a game in his first 2 years until that last round dead rubber and then was left out early this year. You'd think they'd want to get games into him.

Yeah it’s been a little bit of an odd one
He did have a fair few injuries in his first few years
A big one being a broken wrist at the end of last years pre season and also did seem a little outside at times with the way he played

But hasn’t shown any signs of that this year and been super impressive

Definitely gone under the radar but one worth watching

Dare say by the end of the year he will be a player we try to utilise a lot more on the rebound

Definitely one worth keeping an eye on for cats fans as well just due to that family connection

 

[Footy Smarts]

So far in 2024 the Cats have played 25 games into players 23yo or less, and 8 players are involved in that. The corresponding figure for Richmond is 39 games and 14 players 23 and under have taken the field already in 5 matches.

Beautiful cherry picking once again.

No mention that Richmond has played 1 more game. Or that extending that out to 23 really benefits Richmond's numbers.

Or that of those 39 games 8 haven't been full games (either sub or subbed) while only 2 of Geelong's 25 have been either as sub or subbed.

A couple of alternative stats:

21yo and younger games played:
Richmond - 22 (4.4 per game)
Geelong - 21 (5.25 per game)

Full games by 21yo and younger:
Richmond - 18 (3.6 per game)
Geelong - 19 (4.75 per game)

Coaches votes by players 23yo or younger:
Richmond - 0 (0 per game from 0 players)
Geelong - 20 (6.7 per game from 4 different players. Votes aren't out for this round yet).

 

[juss]

He looks nicely composed.

I'm confused why he didn't get a game in his first 2 years until that last round dead rubber and then was left out early this year. You'd think they'd want to get games into him.

Just bad luck. Was pretty underdeveloped in his first year and when close to debut in 2023 he broke his wrist which required surgery.

2022 Richmond wasn't the easiest of sides to break into for a first year player either, we made finals that year and a lot of the premiership players were still around holding spots

 

[My Tilly]

Gibcus - 21yo. Shown plenty to suggest he will be a class defender, brutalised by injury early. Imo the club could have managed him a bit more conservatively, but he has many years ahead of him, and should become a class player.

Will never be the same player again.

You have so many dud players. Far too many injury concerns as well.
Tigers to crash and burn and become irrelevant over the next 5 years. You know it too which is why you spend your free-time in these threads.