Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[FootyLad0]

Most of Richmond's young players got their first taste this year, so who would have thought they haven't made the U22 side. How many first year Geelong players made it? None last year, 2 this year, one with 75 games under his belt the other a bit better with 31.

Lawson Humphries would easily have made it if he played the full year.

Holmes made it and was a snub for AA team…he was ranked top 10 for Champion Data players all season. That’s all the players IN THE LEAGUE. Not just kids.

Dempsey made it and was your Rising Star.

Bruhn was in the squad and was contention for it but missed out.

Humphries would have made it as a lock. I’d pick him over Wilmot in that side for sure.

That’s 4 and would be equal with Freo for most.

 

[Fadge]

Most of Richmond's young players got their first taste this year, so who would have thought they haven't made the U22 side. How many first year Geelong players made it? None last year, 2 this year, one with 75 games under his belt the other a bit better with 31.

Huh.

4th consecutive year without a finals win, about to lose a handful of your best 10 players, and not a single player in the U22 side?

Things are looking pretty Grim at Tigerland...

Edit: also, not a single player in the top 40 players under 24 years old that was recently published?

Oh no.

 

[Cdog71]

Huh.

4th consecutive year without a finals win, about to lose a handful of your best 10 players, and not a single player in the U22 side?

Things are looking pretty Grim at Tigerland...

Edit: also, not a single player in the top 40 players under 24 years old that was recently published?

Oh no.

Things can only improve at Tigerland.

 

[Fadge]

Things can only improve at Tigerland.

After a 2 win season, you'd hope so.

Though I'm not too sure that will be the case in 2025....

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Huh.

4th consecutive year without a finals win, about to lose a handful of your best 10 players, and not a single player in the U22 side?

Things are looking pretty Grim at Tigerland...

Edit: also, not a single player in the top 40 players under 24 years old that was recently published?

Oh no.

A side with brilliant young talent doesn't tend to feel required to gut their list of any quality players they do have in order to bring in young talent.

We've said it since the thread started. The 2025 Tigers will likely have some youth worthy of getting excited about on their list.

Talking up the 2024 model though? You're fighting a losing battle.

 

[Cdog71]

After a 2 win season, you'd hope so.

Though I'm not too sure that will be the case in 2025....

Don’t worry.
That won’t have anything to do with it.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Most of Richmond's young players got their first taste this year, so who would have thought they haven't made the U22 side. How many first year Geelong players made it? None last year, 2 this year, one with 75 games under his belt the other a bit better with 31.

Gee that's clutching at straws. Why couldn't Dow do what Holmes has done this year? Or Sonsie do what Dempsey has done? Or Brown do what Humphries has done? Or Ryan do what Neale has done?

It's not opportunity or age or experience. It's a lack of quality.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Most of Richmond's young players got their first taste this year, so who would have thought they haven't made the U22 side. How many first year Geelong players made it? None last year, 2 this year, one with 75 games under his belt the other a bit better with 31.

My post was clearly taking the piss, but there's a kernel of truth in there too.

Trust me, we've been there too. A few years ago Cats supporters were fighting back against the masses telling all an sundry that we actually had great kids, people just didn't realise it yet.

Charlie Constable, Quinton Narkle, Brandan Parfitt, Esava Ratugolea, Jamaine Jones, Wylie Buzza, Lachie Fogarty...the list goes on.

It was delusion though, and even at the time I think we knew deep down that those names had a 'role player' ceiling at best, but there's still a part of you that wants to believe.

These are deeply flawed players, and there's a reason they weren't high draft picks, and there's a reason they weren't getting selected regularly.

You're more than welcome to think Jack Ross, Hugo Ralph-Smith, Steely Green, Kane McAuliffe, Ryan Mansell, & Maurice Rioli Jnr are the players to take the Tigers forward. It's your life.

If I'm to recommend anything though, I'd wait until next year when you've actually got some high quality kids to get excited about.

It feels so much better knowing what you're saying is actually true, rather than gaslighting yourself into believing something that's not.

Just keep your powder dry mate.

2025 will be much better if you're a Tiger, but wait till Finn O'Sullivan or Harvey Langford is running around in the yellow & black and you'll understand what I mean.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Lawson Humphries would easily have made it if he played the full year.

Holmes made it and was a snub for AA team…he was ranked top 10 for Champion Data players all season. That’s all the players IN THE LEAGUE. Not just kids.

Dempsey made it and was your Rising Star.

Bruhn was in the squad and was contention for it but missed out.

Humphries would have made it as a lock. I’d pick him over Wilmot in that side for sure.

That’s 4 and would be equal with Freo for most.

Holmes is doing brilliantly and has a very strong average player rating this season....but not quite that strong. He had the 24th highest player rating and was a fair way behind the 10th place Zac Butters.

Humphries would not have just had to play the whole season to make the 22 under 22 team. He would have needed to play the whole season at the same level. There were 17 players 22 and under who had a higher rating than him in any event, so even at the same rating he is around the fringe(though within the best 22.) There were about 40 eligible players with higher coaches votes per game averages. So not sure your claims regarding him are stacking up.

At the end of the day you had 2 young players we could say likely won their positions over the season, Holmes and Dempsey, so you were fairly represented in the team.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Geez, even by your standards that is a poor reply. You didn't have a rebuttal to anything I said, that covered exactly why they were a nothing side.

Sydney, building from their strong 2022 season, will likely win the flag this season and become even more credentialed, as a side with old champions and new superstars, who was consistently knocking on the door and acquiring finals experience on the way to ultimate success. They will stick around and could become a champion team. Thus a side that shits all over the illustrious 2017 era Crows. Much like the 2022 Pies, who went on to salute in 2023. And Melbourne 2023, who had saluted in 2022. It's very easy to see how 2022 was a stronger contending pack than 2017.

We don't even have to waste time on the GWS, Brisbane and Port sides of the era.

So you might as well pump up the tires of Richmond's biggest scalp, the 2017-2020 Cats. Sides with bigger flaws and worse depth than the 2024 version you are so keen to rubbish.

Sydney finished 8th in 2023 both before and after finals. In 2021 they were 6th before finals, 7th after finals. They won zero finals. The finals they won in 2022 were by a point and 22 points against teams with a combined 1w 2l record barring the games they played against the Swans. So they weren't a powerhouse in any of those seasons. they were a very young team for a GF team in 2022 with from memory 9 players 22yo or under. They are 2 years more mature now. So success they have this year doesn't somehow indicate they were better in 2022.

Beating them in 2022 does not equate to beating a team who finish top of table 137% and won both their previous fnals by big margins.

I would love to rubbish the 2024 Cats, nothing would bring me more pleasure. Based on their season performance I rated them somewhere around 7-8th best performaing team going into finals. Their performance in the first final has obviously thrown some doubt on that. If they confirm a different level with subsequent performances, then I will happily concede that is how good they are, 1st 2nd 3rd 4th highest rated post finals or whatever. Let's just let them do it first. Last night was not the expected level of intensity and performance for a final from Port's side. Time will tell the truth.

 

[catters_28]

Let me know how they get on in the next month or so.

If they are good then, then they are actually good.

Looks like they're good

 

[Meteoric Rise]

My post was clearly taking the piss, but there's a kernel of truth in there too.

Trust me, we've been there too. A few years ago Cats supporters were fighting back against the masses telling all an sundry that we actually had great kids, people just didn't realise it yet.

Charlie Constable, Quinton Narkle, Brandan Parfitt, Esava Ratugolea, Jamaine Jones, Wylie Buzza, Lachie Fogarty...the list goes on.

It was delusion though, and even at the time I think we knew deep down that those names had a 'role player' ceiling at best, but there's still a part of you that wants to believe.

These are deeply flawed players, and there's a reason they weren't high draft picks, and there's a reason they weren't getting selected regularly.

You're more than welcome to think Jack Ross, Hugo Ralph-Smith, Steely Green, Kane McAuliffe, Ryan Mansell, & Maurice Rioli Jnr are the players to take the Tigers forward. It's your life.

If I'm to recommend anything though, I'd wait until next year when you've actually got some high quality kids to get excited about.

It feels so much better knowing what you're saying is actually true, rather than gaslighting yourself into believing something that's not.

Just keep your powder dry mate.

2025 will be much better if you're a Tiger, but wait till Finn O'Sullivan or Harvey Langford is running around in the yellow & black and you'll understand what I mean.

Successful teams aren't just full of stars though are they? You have to build the whole 23 including all the role players. Geelong have a load of players holding down spots that didn't look much chop at age 22 and under in terms of being future stars. Miers, Z Guthrie, J Henry, Stengle, Mannagh, Atkins, Bews Blicavs, Kolojashnij to name quite a few. If you are saying Gibcus, Rioli, Brown, Campbell etc are not going to be the next Gary Ablett Jnr, no argument. If you are saying there are clear reasons to think they can't be part of a successful team long term, then look no further than your own list to see that is not necesarily the case. In 2022 when our team was stable and played really well as a whole, our youngsters looked fantastic. So there is some talent there. A mixture of injuries, major malfunctions within the team and possibly some other issues have conspired to make them look worse than they are. Plenty of our current youngsters will end good players. Not many of them stars, but not many players become stars.

 

[Mr Meow]

Sydney finished 8th in 2023 both before and after finals. In 2021 they were 6th before finals, 7th after finals. They won zero finals. The finals they won in 2022 were by a point and 22 points against teams with a combined 1w 2l record barring the games they played against the Swans. So they weren't a powerhouse in any of those seasons. they were a very young team for a GF team in 2022 with from memory 9 players 22yo or under. They are 2 years more mature now. So success they have this year doesn't somehow indicate they were better in 2022.

Beating them in 2022 does not equate to beating a team who finish top of table 137% and won both their previous fnals by big margins.

I would love to rubbish the 2024 Cats, nothing would bring me more pleasure. Based on their season performance I rated them somewhere around 7-8th best performaing team going into finals. Their performance in the first final has obviously thrown some doubt on that. If they confirm a different level with subsequent performances, then I will happily concede that is how good they are, 1st 2nd 3rd 4th highest rated post finals or whatever. Let's just let them do it first. Last night was not the expected level of intensity and performance for a final from Port's side. Time will tell the truth.

The Cats performed as a top 4 team for H&A, a top 2 team last night and are guaranteed to finish a top 4 performing team for both finals and the overall season.

All we are waiting to see is whether they back up last night's game to be the 2nd best team or the premiers. So you can write that down and then run your follow up analysis from that foundation.

In the industry this is known as "rebuilding on the run".

Richmond's version is called "rebuilding the sewarage system" after a very stinky year.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Looks like they're good

If they repeat that level, then you won't have to say looks like.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

The Cats performed as a top 4 team for H&A, a top 2 team last night and are guaranteed to finish a top 4 performing team for both finals and the overall season.

All we are waiting to see is whether they back up last night's game to be the 2nd best team or the premiers. So you can write that down and then run your follow up analysis from that foundation.

I didn't bet against them last night, but I will likely be betting against them winning their Preliminary Final and should they make it that far, almost certainly the GF. Right now we can't tell any difference between Port's performance last night and a bottom 3 team performance. So let's see if Port and or the Cats can show that Port are actually above that level right now.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Langford
Laverde
Parish
Francis
McGrath
Cox
Perkins
Hobbs
Tsatas
Caddy

All of them still playing AFL, all but one (Francis) for Essendon.

Yikes

 

[Mr Meow]

I didn't bet against them last night, but I will likely be betting against them winning their Preliminary Final and should they make it that far, almost certainly the GF. Right now we can't tell any difference between Port's performance last night and a bottom 3 team performance. So let's see if Port and or the Cats can show that Port are actually above that level right now.

We're just trying to gently rebuild while giving youngsters a taste of finals.

From the 2022 grand final side

In: Holmes, Dempsey, Mannagh, Bowes, Bruhn, O.Henry, Neale, Humphries, Mullin

Out: Selwood, Smith, Hawkins, C.Guthrie, Parfitt, Rohan, O'Connor, SDK, Stewart

 

[PhatBoy]

My post was clearly taking the piss, but there's a kernel of truth in there too.

Trust me, we've been there too. A few years ago Cats supporters were fighting back against the masses telling all an sundry that we actually had great kids, people just didn't realise it yet.

Charlie Constable, Quinton Narkle, Brandan Parfitt, Esava Ratugolea, Jamaine Jones, Wylie Buzza, Lachie Fogarty...the list goes on.

It was delusion though, and even at the time I think we knew deep down that those names had a 'role player' ceiling at best, but there's still a part of you that wants to believe.

These are deeply flawed players, and there's a reason they weren't high draft picks, and there's a reason they weren't getting selected regularly.

You're more than welcome to think Jack Ross, Hugo Ralph-Smith, Steely Green, Kane McAuliffe, Ryan Mansell, & Maurice Rioli Jnr are the players to take the Tigers forward. It's your life.

If I'm to recommend anything though, I'd wait until next year when you've actually got some high quality kids to get excited about.

It feels so much better knowing what you're saying is actually true, rather than gaslighting yourself into believing something that's not.

Just keep your powder dry mate.

2025 will be much better if you're a Tiger, but wait till Finn O'Sullivan or Harvey Langford is running around in the yellow & black and you'll understand what I mean.

The thing with those players was they were very quickly rotated into other roles to see if they had something else to offer, or moved on altogether, or in Parfitt’s case we squeezed the lemon as much as we could and Esava’s case we turned him into Lawson Humphries which at this early stage is looking like the bargain of the century.

Given how many players the tigers are actually offloading at the moment they’re probably going to have to keep a lot of their equivalents of those players just to keep a squad together

 

[Gavin Excell]

We need Holmes to continue his development and become elite

 

[PhatBoy]

We need Holmes to continue his development and become elite

Elit-er

 

[Mr Meow]

We need Holmes to continue his development and become elite

After last night there would only be 12 players in the entire league who have picked up more coaches votes than Max Holmes in 2024.

He was the number one ranked defender in the league by the same metric at the end of the H&A season.

He also picks up coaches votes frequently when thrown into the midfield or played on the wing.

Holmes has probably been our best performing 21 year old in a generation. Selwood is his only competition, as he was already a gun midfielder.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

After last night there would only be 12 players in the entire league who have picked up more coaches votes than Max Holmes in 2024.

He was the number one ranked defender in the league by the same metric at the end of the H&A season.

He also picks up coaches votes frequently when thrown into the midfield or played on the wing.

Holmes has probably been our best performing 21 year old in a generation. Selwood is his only competition, as he was already a gun midfielder.

Holmes is a defender in name and which side of the centre line he normally occupies only. He is about 180th in the AFL for defensive 1 v 1 contests. Most clubs have a player like this now. Out of all the good ones Holmes has the worst rate of disposlas per turnover. He remains young and can improve that, but that is what he will need to do to become one of the top shelf players in the comp. He also attends 30 odd % of centre bounces which muddies the waters a bit, so it isn't a perfect comparison of him v other players considered defenders.

 

[Mr Meow]

Holmes is a defender in name and which side of the centre line he normally occupies only. He is about 180th in the AFL for defensive 1 v 1 contests. Most clubs have a player like this now. Out of all the good ones Holmes has the worst rate of disposlas per turnover. He remains young and can improve that, but that is what he will need to do to become one of the top shelf players in the comp. He also attends 30 odd % of centre bounces which muddies the waters a bit, so it isn't a perfect comparison of him v other players considered defenders.

Well Holmes has still had 3x as many rebound 50s as last year. He's played a serious amount of time at half back, but has usually collected the ball between there and the centreline. I think that still fits the bill as a rebounding defender fine. But just like Dusty wasn't a permanent forward or midfielder for many years, Holmes hasn't been a permanent defender. Much like there weren't many genuine hybrid midfielder/forwards to compare Dusty too, there aren't many hybrid defender/midfielders to compare Holmes to. But having more coaches votes than all but about 14 players in the comp this season (once we get this weekend's results), as a 21 year old, indicates he has been sort of okay in his new role. I know I can't use language any more praising than that or you will have a fit.

 

[WillHayward]

Is this still a thread?
Good god.
Richmond fans are Caro are ****ing delusional.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Well Holmes has still had 3x as many rebound 50s as last year. He's played a serious amount of time at half back, but has usually collected the ball between there and the centreline. I think that still fits the bill as a rebounding defender fine. But just like Dusty wasn't a permanent forward or midfielder for many years, Holmes hasn't been a permanent defender. Much like there weren't many genuine hybrid midfielder/forwards to compare Dusty too, there aren't many hybrid defender/midfielders to compare Holmes to. But having more coaches votes than all but about 14 players in the comp this season (once we get this weekend's results), as a 21 year old, indicates he has been sort of okay in his new role. I know I can't use language any more praising than that or you will have a fit.

Holmes is a very good player. But there are quite a few of those about. He is a powerful runner and has fast reactions and handles the ball well. These are great traits. Kicking is so key to getting to be the best of the best though. That will limit his upside if he doesn't improve it.