Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Gazza Greatness]

Just shows if you get two drafts right with pointy end picks you're back in it. Obviously those of arguably the best hauls ever.

1999 - Joel Corey, Paul Chapman, Cameron Ling, Corey Enright.

Hawthorn - 2001 - Luke Hodge, Campbell Brown, Sam Mitchell and 2004 - Jarryd Roughead, Lance Franklin, Jordan Lewis, Clinton Young

You need to nail a couple.

For Cats it was TWO drafts NOT one... 1999 & 2001. Between those two drafts we struck GOLD, pretty much 8 All Australian quality type players

2001 draft -

Jimmy Bartel.... pick 8
James Kelly.... pick 17
Steve Johnston.... pick 24
Gary Ablett.... pick 40

Gazza Jnr F/S would have been no more than pick 30 without F/S benefit

PS - In 2006 Hawkins would have definitely gone pick 1, so the Cats got lucky there thru old system by getting Tomahawk and then Selwood pick 7. Today we'd only get one of the two.

 

[My Tilly]

The biggest reason Geelong are still a contender is Chris Scott.

He' s got to be the greatest tactician of all time.

Cannot think of another coach who can win a flag with such a poor Midfield as in 2022 and now be a PF side with an even worse midfield.

Thankfully there's more to the sport than just having a star-studded midfield

 

[Sttew]

Thankfully there's more to the sport than just having a star-studded midfield

Isn’t that the truth. It was like in 2022 Cats debunked the ‘theory’ that the oldest team in n the AFL could win a premiership

 

[Tonythetiger]

Tasmania needs to do everything they can to get Chris Scott no matter the cost.

Before the 2022 flag, I was thinking if Scott became available he would for sure be able to get another senior coaching gig somewhere. If he does it again this year, I can't imagine any club would say no if he said he wanted to coach them.

Geelong fans, how does the 2011 flag sit in his legacy? I've always considered it kind of right place, right time, right guy. When they won in 2022, I figured it mostly legitimised that flag but that 2022 would sit much higher in terms of his legacy obviously. Now, if he wins this year, I think he's just "Triple premiership coach Chris Scott" and no one can say a word about anything.

 

[Warhorse]

Tasmania needs to do everything they can to get Chris Scott no matter the cost.

I agree. He is very good at the media stuff. Listen to him talk when he is on any of the footy shows and he is an astute observer of other teams and is very likable. I think he would be a perfect fit for them.

The biggest reason Geelong are still a contender is Chris Scott.

He' s got to be the greatest tactician of all time.

Cannot think of another coach who can win a flag with such a poor Midfield as in 2022 and now be a PF side with an even worse midfield.

I couldn't believe we managed to win a bunch of games early in the season with a midfield of Atkins, Parfitt, Bruhn and Bowes.

He seems to be coaching better and better over the years as well.

 

[Wojcinski]

Why do these discussions always end up focusing on war era flags lmao. No one here was alive when the plumbers and milkbar owners were going at it, no one should care

 

[PhilX]

Geelong fans, how does the 2011 flag sit in his legacy? I've always considered it kind of right place, right time, right guy. When they won in 2022, I figured it mostly legitimised that flag but that 2022 would sit much higher in terms of his legacy obviously. Now, if he wins this year, I think he's just "Triple premiership coach Chris Scott" and no one can say a word about anything.

I expected a very mediocre season in 2011. Most people have conveniently forgotten that this was year one of everyone proclaiming that the Cat's period of dominance was over..

Scott took a team that had just been embarrassed by Collingwood, and turned them into literally the only team in the competition that was capable of beating Collingwood.

 

[PhatBoy]

Before the 2022 flag, I was thinking if Scott became available he would for sure be able to get another senior coaching gig somewhere. If he does it again this year, I can't imagine any club would say no if he said he wanted to coach them.

Geelong fans, how does the 2011 flag sit in his legacy? I've always considered it kind of right place, right time, right guy. When they won in 2022, I figured it mostly legitimised that flag but that 2022 would sit much higher in terms of his legacy obviously. Now, if he wins this year, I think he's just "Triple premiership coach Chris Scott" and no one can say a word about anything.

When we became a bit long in the tooth and people became sick of both us and him, it started to become popular to write that flag off as one that anyone could have coached us to, especially after a run of prelim finals that we lost and one straight sets exit.

‘That was Thompson’s team, anyone could have coached them to it.’

That was the biggest piece of revisionist history in Geelong’s last 25 years.

We still obviously had a lot of great players but had lost the greatest of them, and 3-4 were no longer selectable, and more than that, Collingwood had steamed past us. To not only beat them on GF day but beat them 3 times - and people also forget that OUR only three losses that year were by a total of 21 points - was huge.

No doubt it was a dream job to land in but we don’t go close to that flag without him.

 

[STPer18]

Before the 2022 flag, I was thinking if Scott became available he would for sure be able to get another senior coaching gig somewhere. If he does it again this year, I can't imagine any club would say no if he said he wanted to coach them.

Geelong fans, how does the 2011 flag sit in his legacy? I've always considered it kind of right place, right time, right guy. When they won in 2022, I figured it mostly legitimised that flag but that 2022 would sit much higher in terms of his legacy obviously. Now, if he wins this year, I think he's just "Triple premiership coach Chris Scott" and no one can say a word about anything.

Reason why I think he's so highly regarded is because he's now won flags with effectively two different lists. 2011 had baby Selwood, Hawkins and Duncan still around for 2022 but otherwise it was an entirely new lineup. Think of the other multi-premiership winning coaches of the 21st century and they've generally won it in batches with the exact same list. Brisbane, Hawthorn, Richmond, Geelong 07 & 09 under Thompson. Doesn't diminish those coaches in the slightest but winning flags a decade apart with new players where you can't just roll out 90% of the same lineup with the same plan + a few minor tweaks and roll on shows his adaptability.

 

[Hamingja]

For Cats it was TWO drafts NOT one... 1999 & 2001. Between those two drafts we struck GOLD, pretty much 8 All Australian quality type players

Worth remembering for the Richmond supporters drooling over their player exodus turning into draft picks that 2001 was a super draft but the first round still had Graham Polak, Xavier Clarke, Ashley Sampi, Luke Molan, Sam Power, Richard Cole, Ashley Watson, Barry Brooks, Rick Ladson and Shane Harvey.

Hope you have got a good recruiter in charge

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Worth remembering for the Richmond supporters drooling over their player exodus turning into draft picks that 2001 was a super draft but the first round still had Graham Polak, Xavier Clarke, Ashley Sampi, Luke Molan, Sam Power, Richard Cole, Ashley Watson, Barry Brooks, Rick Ladson and Shane Harvey.

Hope you have got a good recruiter in charge

There were also a load of very good to elite players available with all of those picks, Dane Swan, Steve Johnson, Sam Mitchell, Montagna, Schneider, Q Stick, Matthew Boyd, Bock, Sandilands, Rutten.

Richond won't expect to nail every pick, nobody would. If they have 6 first round picks and 2 early rd 2 picks in 2024 the will be realistically hoping for 1-2 stars, 2-3 above average players and a reasonable fringe player.

A better and more relevant guide than the 2001 draft might be the 2017 draft that didn't have clear standouts but has produced a lot of very good players. Richmond will be expecting a draft hand along the lines of 1, 9, 10(from freo for Bolton) 6, 26(from Suns for Rioli) 14(from Eagles for Baker) 13(traded for with our later picks to Brisbane for points for Ashcroft) 21 and possibly something else in return for salary assistance for Rioli and or Bolton. It is impossible to predict what the final hand looks like on draft night but let's say pick 17 ends up in there as well and after f/s, academy and f/a insertions it is something like:

1, 7, 11, 12, 16, 17, 21, 28.

And apply that to the 2017 draft you would get a haul of Rayner, H Clark, Bonar, D Fogarty, Ed Richards, Jack Higgins, Oscar Allen, Sam Taylor. The first 3 picks you would hope to do better, the last 5 picks you would be performing cartwheels with tucks and twists.

And it is not like that was picking the eyes out of the draft. All the following would have been available:

Andrew Brayshaw
Uniacke
Cerra
Naughton
Z Bailey
Starcevich
Powell
T Kelly
Balta
L.I.Am Ryan
Brent Daniels
Tom DeKoning
Barely Avfritsch
Tom McCartin
Petty
Worpel
Miers
Dylan Moore
Meek
Xerri
Switkowski
Liam Baker
Mihocek

So with 8 picks in the top 28 or so, you would be disappointed if you didn't land some very good talent even in between 2-3 misses. Of course this draft may not turn out as good as that one. Or it could be better I guess...

 

[Wojcinski]

There were also a load of very good to elite players available with all of those picks, Dane Swan, Steve Johnson, Sam Mitchell, Montagna, Schneider, Q Stick, Matthew Boyd, Bock, Sandilands, Rutten.

Richond won't expect to nail every pick, nobody would. If they have 6 first round picks and 2 early rd 2 picks in 2024 the will be realistically hoping for 1-2 stars, 2-3 above average players and a reasonable fringe player.

AA better and more relevant guide than the 2001 draft might be the 2017 draft that didn't have clear standouts but has produced a lot of very good players. Richmond will be expecting a draft hand along the lines of 1, 9, 10(from freo for Bolton) 6, 26(from Suns for Rioli) 14(from Eagles for Baker) 13(traded for with our later picks to Brisbane for points for Ashcroft) 21 and possibly something else in return for salary assistance for Rioli and or Bolton. It is impossible to predict what the final hand looks like on draft night but let's say pick 17 ends up in there as well and after f/s, academy and f/a insertions it is something like:

1, 7, 11, 12, 16, 17, 21, 28.

And apply that to the 2017 draft you would get a haul of Rayner, H Clark, Bonar, D Fogarty, Ed Richards, Jack Higgins, Oscar Allen, Sam Taylor. The first 3 picks you would hope to do better, the last 5 picks you would be performing cartwheels with tucks and twists.

And it is not like that was picking the eyes out of the draft. All the following would have been available:

Andrew Brayshaw
Uniacke
Cerra
Naughton
Z Bailey
Starcevich
Powell
T Kelly
Balta
L.I.Am Ryan
Brent Daniels
Tom DeKoning
Barely Avfritsch
Tom McCartin
Petty
Worpel
Miers
Dylan Moore
Meek
Xerri
Switkowski
Liam Baker
Mihocek

So with 8 picks in the top 28 or so, you would be disappointed if you didn't land some very good talent even in between 2-3 misses. Of course this draft may not turn out as good as that one. Or it could be better I guess...

Fingers crossed Mr Rise

 

[sr36]

Worth remembering for the Richmond supporters drooling over their player exodus turning into draft picks that 2001 was a super draft but the first round still had Graham Polak, Xavier Clarke, Ashley Sampi, Luke Molan, Sam Power, Richard Cole, Ashley Watson, Barry Brooks, Rick Ladson and Shane Harvey.

Hope you have got a good recruiter in charge

Doesn't really matter - it takes a few years to realise they're no good - they'll win the best young players flag for a few years to come regardless of who they pick.

 

[jim boy]

PS - In 2006 Hawkins would have definitely gone pick 1, so the Cats got lucky there thru old system by getting Tomahawk and then Selwood pick 7. Today we'd only get one of the two.

Nah, today we'd get both - the points system is such a rort. If it was 2007, we'd only have got one (we would have been forced to use pick 7 on Hawkins going by the rules then)

 

[sr36]

Nah, today we'd get both - the points system is such a rort. If it was 2007, we'd only have got one (we would have been forced to use pick 7 on Hawkins going by the rules then)

You wouldn't have got both - you can't trade up to get ahead of pick 1 - but you probably would have had an extra couple of first round picks the following year as a result of trading down pick 7 a couple of times.

 

[Mr Meow]

The last three times Geelong missed finals they made a prelim, won the flag and made a prelim.

The last three times Richmond missed finals they made an elimination final, won the flag and made an elimination final.

Do you rate elimination finals higher than prelims?

Geelong once again proving their superiority in the “bounce back”ability.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Geelong once again proving their superiority in the “bounce back”ability.

Also in their bounce backwards ability.

 

[PhatBoy]

Also in their bounce backwards ability.

So we’ve bounced backwards from last year by going from 12th to 3rd, at worst. That’s an interesting concept

 

[Sttew]

Also in their bounce backwards ability.

But we aren't in the Richmond league of bouncing backwards. Can't go any further south than wooden spoon!

FYI, only 13 players out of the 22 in the side that beat Port Power on Thursday played in the 2022 GF

 

[Meteoric Rise]

But we aren't in the Richmond league of bouncing backwards. Can't go any further south than wooden spoon!

FYI, only 13 players out of the 22 in the side that beat Port Power on Thursday played in the 2022 GF

And none of them will play in the 2024 Grand Final.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

So we’ve bounced backwards from last year by going from 12th to 3rd, at worst. That’s an interesting concept

Geelong Cats FC has improved it's position on the ladder 6 times since 2007 when compared to the previous season.

Richmond Tigers FC has done it 7 times.

I think we can all see how is better at bouncing up the ladder.

 

[PhatBoy]

Geelong Cats FC has improved it's position on the ladder 6 times since 2007 when compared to the previous season.

Richmond Tigers FC has done it 7 times.

I think we can all see how is better at bouncing up the ladder.

That’s like saying a flaccid penis has responded better to viagra than a pr0n star’s

 

[Meteoric Rise]

That’s like saying a flaccid penis has responded better to viagra than a pr0n star’s

You guys were boasting about your ability to bounce up the ladder....

 

[Mr Meow]

Geelong Cats FC has improved it's position on the ladder 6 times since 2007 when compared to the previous season.

Richmond Tigers FC has done it 7 times.

I think we can all see how is better at bouncing up the ladder.

It’s hard to improve ladder position when you are consistently top 4.

The point was what happens to Geelong and Richmond the year after they miss finals from 2004 onwards. The Cats have won a premiership, made a prelim and made a prelim (maybe more).

The seasons they have been truly belted in a prelim, well on two of those occasions they won a flag the next year (2011 and 2022).

When they finish 5th to 8th they do okay the next year. After 2012, a year later they lost a prelim by just a goal. After 2018 it was a similar story.

At all of these points the side has been written off, the era declared over. Each time they bounce back.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

It’s hard to improve ladder position when you are consistently top 4.

The point was what happens to Geelong and Richmond the year after they miss finals from 2004 onwards. The Cats have won a premiership, made a prelim and made a prelim (maybe more).

The seasons they have been truly belted in a prelim, well on two of those occasions they won a flag the next year (2011 and 2022).

When they finish 5th to 8th they do okay the next year. After 2012, a year later they lost a prelim by just a goal. After 2018 it was a similar story.

At all of these points the side has been written off, the era declared over. Each time they bounce back.

But Richmond got belted in a Prelim and won the next 2 flags with a leg in the air. That is a what a proper Prelim belting bounce back looks like.