Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[CatToTheFuture]

Yes this to me is the difference between the two of our clubs rebuilds imo.

Unless I’m incorrect I believe Holmes is your current best “youth” player.

For us it’s Lalor atm. But then we have Smillie who was rated about equal as Lalor coming into the draft and then we have 3 top 5 picks coming over two years. That could also be similar. Plus H Reid as a possible trade target.

Just from pure probability I think we’ll have multiple players that are better than your best players later on. That to me is what I think makes us have better future. But who knows, it’s a gamble.

I think it's not on one player though. Holmes is great but he's one of many who we feel are driving a future

 

[Delisted]

A label that appropriately fits every post of yours when you interact with me. Congratulations on another example of lacking self awareness.

More insults. You started this interaction by quoting me. If discussing the merits of this thread are beyond you, move on. You need to move past becoming offended if people disagree.

I'm simply stating Holmes reminds me of Nick Daffy. Both very solid contributers. That's my take.

 

[Mr Meow]

More insults. You started this interaction by quoting me. If discussing the merits of this thread are beyond you, move on. You need to move past becoming offended if people disagree.

I'm simply stating Holmes reminds me of Nick Daffy. Both very solid contributers. That's my take.

Again, you keep switching to the victim ("stop picking on me and dishing out insults!") right after lame trolling, poor takes or statements like "haha you don't have to get offended so easily". The hypocrisy is wild.

It's pretty weird and to me looks like attention seeking. Which would explain the majority of your pointless side commentary in threads like these. Or else your Daffy comparison wouldn't lead to you getting so upset when someone responds to it.

As a reminder, you are a quite clearly offended person riding around threads declaring how offended everybody is. Amusing if this is you running a gag. Otherwise it appears you're just confused.

 

[Delisted]

Again, you keep switching to the victim ("stop picking on me and dishing out insults!") right after lame trolling, poor takes or statements like "haha you don't have to get offended so easily". The hypocrisy is wild.

It's pretty weird and to me looks like attention seeking. Which would explain the majority of your pointless side commentary in threads like these. Or else your Daffy comparison wouldn't lead to you getting so upset when someone responds to it.

As a reminder, you are a quite clearly offended person riding around threads declaring how offended everybody is. Amusing if this is you running a gag. Otherwise it appears you're just confused.

I'm not here to debate you on how offended you think I am. Remember it's your opinion of what you think of me or how you interperate my 'side commetary'. This will be the second or third time you have started a interaction with me this past week relusting in you dishing out insults. Yet I'm the one who is upset move of Mr Meow(Because I am) and take a hard look at yourself.

And for what it's worth Daffy was a very good player!

 

[Mr Meow]

I'm not here to debate you on how offended you think I am. Remember it's your opinion of what you think of me or how you interperate my 'side commetary'. This will be the second or third time you have started a interaction with me this past week relusting in you dishing out insults. Yet I'm the one who is upset move of Mr Meow(Because I am) and take a hard look at yourself.

And for what it's worth Daffy was a very good player!

Sounds good. You're the one who keeps making it a personal rather than football exchange ("don't get offended! But also stop picking on me!") when I simply respond to your point (rating Holmes).

If instead you simply offered a reply on the football topic, we wouldn't need to swap 30 essays about how offended we are, who is making it personal and who lacks self awareness.

 

[MisterMarcus]

If you guys were willing to bet who will turn out to be a better player Lalor or Holmes. Who would you pick?

Statistically, a team with Pick 1 would be very strongly hoping/wanting their guy to turn out a significantly better player than anyone taken in the 20s.

Even having a "who is better?" comparison between Pick 1 and Pick 20-something would be favourable for the Pick 20s guy and the club that chose him.

 

[DanA]

More insults. You started this interaction by quoting me. If discussing the merits of this thread are beyond you, move on. You need to move past becoming offended if people disagree.

I'm simply stating Holmes reminds me of Nick Daffy. Both very solid contributers. That's my take.

I'm not at all offended but that's just a bad take. At 21 Holmes won the B&F and his mid game injury was arguably the catalyst for us blowing a lead and not making the Grand Final. Nick Daffy was never as important to Richmond as Max Holmes is to Geelong. And they play nothing alike.

 

[Mr Meow]

I'm not at all offended but that's just a bad take. At 21 Holmes won the B&F and his mid game injury was arguably the catalyst for us blowing a lead and not making the Grand Final. Nick Daffy was never as important to Richmond as Max Holmes is to Geelong. And they play nothing alike.

Yep, Holmes was our best player of the H&A season and then the best player of the whole finals series up until his untimely injury in the second half of the prelim. Destroyed Port a fortnight earlier and was easily our best against Brisbane.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Any chance of Jacob Koschitzke coming in for Lynch? Remember when Richmond fans were comparing Koschitzke favourably to Cam Mooney? They must be going bloody well if he can't get a game.

 

[MisterMarcus]

What is it with Richmond supporters and creating endless alts purely to troll Geelong?

Old Mate has had about 50 now.

It's weird.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Any chance of Jacob Koschitzke coming in for Lynch? Remember when Richmond fans were comparing Koschitzke favourably to Cam Mooney? They must be going bloody well if he can't get a game.

Nobody ever said that.

One of your posters said Richmond would be over the moon of Koschitzke turns out as good as Cam Mooney. My response was Richmond wouldn't be happy with that because Cam Mooney was shit.

No team is ever going to be happy with a key forward turning out as good as Cam Mooney. It has nothing to do with Koschitzke, everything to do with Cats supporters using Cam Mooney as if he is some sort of standard for key forwards to aspire to. He isn't.

 

[Mr Meow]

Kozzy is going to catch Cameron Mooney's career output any second now - which as MR said, would only meet reasonable expectation.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Nobody ever said that.

One of your posters said Richmond would be over the moon of Koschitzke turns out as good as Cam Mooney. My response was Richmond wouldn't be happy with that because Cam Mooney was shit.

No team is ever going to be happy with a key forward turning out as good as Cam Mooney. It has nothing to do with Koschitzke, everything to do with Cats supporters using Cam Mooney as if he is some sort of standard for key forwards to aspire to. He isn't.

Should I take the 2 minutes to find the post where you compared Mooney to Koschitzke and said Richmond would be happy enough if Kosi ended up like Mooney? Or should I just enjoy this melt for what it is?

 

[Footy Smarts]

Ok I took the 2 minutes. What do we have here?

"I think Richmond will be happy enough if Jacob performs around the level of Mooney in his career, but they will also expect he is as likely as not to do so."

How's that expectation going MR? Has Kosi made much inroad into 220+ games, almost 300 goals, 3x premierships, 2x leading goalkicker in a premiership year or an AA jumper?

Mooney must have done his job somewhere along the line or he wouldn't have got picked.

Koschitzke is 23. He did not debut at AFL level until 20 years of age. So let's look at some side by side comparisons at the same age Mooney v Koschitzke, to see how Jacob is tracking in comparison to Schank Mooney. These years roughly line up with Mooney's first 3 at Cats after he set North Melbourne alight in his debut season with 38 disposals in 11 matches.

Averages per game, Mooney left column v Jacob K right column:

(Games 36 v 48)
(17W 19L v 16.5W 30.5L)

Disposals 8.5 v 8.2
Goals 1 v 1.1
Goal Assists Unavailable v 0.25
Tackles 1 v 2.2
I50 1.6 v 1.1
Clearances 1 v 0.33
Clangers 1.25 v 1.52
Frees against 1.25 v 0.44
Brownlow votes 0.02 v 0.06
Contested possessions 4.6 v 4.2
Contested marks 1.2 v 1
1%ers 1 v 2.1

I can see looking through their respective stats that Jacob has spent more time inside 50 and Mooney more time outside 50. Overall there isn't much between them, neither has had a big impact to this stage of their careers, you would probably say Mooney edges it. Mooney clearly played in a better performing team and this definitely helps.

I think Richmond will be happy enough if Jacob performs around the level of Mooney in his career, but they will also expect he is as likely as not to do so.

A big difference is Mooney was traded to Cats for Leigh Colbert and pick 53. Jacob was traded to Richmond for just pick 49 without the Leigh Colbert "steak knives."

 

[Delisted]

Richmond still holding onto Koschitzke?

 

[Sttew]

Ok I took the 2 minutes. What do we have here?

"I think Richmond will be happy enough if Jacob performs around the level of Mooney in his career, but they will also expect he is as likely as not to do so."

How's that expectation going MR? Has Kosi made much inroad into 220+ games, almost 300 goals, 3x premierships, 2x leading goalkicker in a premiership year or an AA jumper?

Always satisfying to catch out Mediocrity.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Richmond still holding onto Koschitzke?

Gave him a 3 year deal so he'll be stinking up their list next year too!

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Ok I took the 2 minutes. What do we have here?

"I think Richmond will be happy enough if Jacob performs around the level of Mooney in his career, but they will also expect he is as likely as not to do so."

How's that expectation going MR? Has Kosi made much inroad into 220+ games, almost 300 goals, 3x premierships, 2x leading goalkicker in a premiership year or an AA jumper?

How exactly does that amount to the following?

Remember when Richmond fans were comparing Koschitzke favourably to Cam Mooney?

Gotcha moment without the gotcha. And desperate Cats fans typically creaming over it. I made no statement as to how good I thought Koschitzke was or was likely to become. Richmond quickly found out he wasn't the answer and proceeded to do what they would have done if he was shaping as well as Cam Mooney - spent key draft picks recruiting players who are likely to be better.

Mooney was shit. Richmond has had multiple key forwards better than him just since he retired, and will have multiple more already on the list now. Which is why Koschitzke is taking his rightful place as a relief key position player on our list. Remember it was your posters trying to make a big issue out of the non-issue of Koschitzke. Our current & future key position stocks are brimming over.

Lynch
Balta
Gibcus
Miller
Lefau
Blight
Armstrong
Trainor
Faull
Sims
Fawcett
Gray
Bauer

Koschitzke

You are focussing on a player well down our pecking order and comparing him to Cam Mooney. Which tells us all we need to know about what you think of Cam Mooney, ie, he was shit.

 

[The Casey Cat]

Which tells us all we need to know about what you think of Cam Mooney, ie, he was shit.

Nonsense. Wasn't a superstar but for most of his career was a handy to very good footballer. Important part of an extremely good side. If you're 'shit' - that doesn't happen. Pretending otherwise is showing even greater level of clownish ignorance that you usually do.

 

[Mr Meow]

Mooney must have done his job somewhere along the line or he wouldn't have got picked.

Koschitzke is 23. He did not debut at AFL level until 20 years of age. So let's look at some side by side comparisons at the same age Mooney v Koschitzke, to see how Jacob is tracking in comparison to Schank Mooney. These years roughly line up with Mooney's first 3 at Cats after he set North Melbourne alight in his debut season with 38 disposals in 11 matches.

Averages per game, Mooney left column v Jacob K right column:

(Games 36 v 48)
(17W 19L v 16.5W 30.5L)

Disposals 8.5 v 8.2
Goals 1 v 1.1
Goal Assists Unavailable v 0.25
Tackles 1 v 2.2
I50 1.6 v 1.1
Clearances 1 v 0.33
Clangers 1.25 v 1.52
Frees against 1.25 v 0.44
Brownlow votes 0.02 v 0.06
Contested possessions 4.6 v 4.2
Contested marks 1.2 v 1
1%ers 1 v 2.1

I can see looking through their respective stats that Jacob has spent more time inside 50 and Mooney more time outside 50. Overall there isn't much between them, neither has had a big impact to this stage of their careers, you would probably say Mooney edges it. Mooney clearly played in a better performing team and this definitely helps.

I think Richmond will be happy enough if Jacob performs around the level of Mooney in his career, but they will also expect he is as likely as not to do so.

A big difference is Mooney was traded to Cats for Leigh Colbert and pick 53. Jacob was traded to Richmond for just pick 49 without the Leigh Colbert "steak knives."

Meteoric Rise can we expect yearly comparisons and running career totals? You seemed really bullish on Kozzy at least having a Cameron Mooney type career at Richmond - that would have met, not exceeded your expectations remember.

Kozzy is about to turn 25, which lines up with Mooney's 2004-2005 period as a utility averaging 16-17 disposals a game. During that time he was locked in best 22 in a team making prelims and semi finals.

 

[MisterMarcus]

Actually looking into their list and lineups, Richmond actually have a bit of a weird "Old/Young" profile.

They have a host of potentially promising young players, but on the other hand almost everyone on their list in their late 20s and 30s would still be best 22 - or at least solid AFL level quality.

It's more the middle 20s age range, where there's a bunch of guys like Koschitzke where even Tigers fan admit that the jury is still out (or are obvious placeholders until someone better comes along), that might be the problem in the short term. Losing four of their best players in that age range sure didn't help either.

 

[Mr Meow]

Actually looking into their list and lineups, Richmond actually have a bit of a weird "Old/Young" profile.

They have a host of potentially promising young players, but on the other hand almost everyone on their list in their late 20s and 30s would still be best 22 - or at least solid AFL level quality.

It's more the middle 20s age range, where there's a bunch of guys like Koschitzke where even Tigers fan admit that the jury is still out (or are obvious placeholders until someone better comes along), that might be the problem in the short term. Losing four of their best players in that age range sure didn't help either.

Spot on. I actually promised Meteoric Rise I would complete the 21-26 year old coaches votes tallies for each side upon his request, to show him that this is where Richmond have a relative lack of quality.

3 + 17 + 1 + 4 + 68 = 93 career coaches votes for Richmond's 21-26 year old cohort. 6 players featuring.

3 + 20 + 20 + 107 + 3 + 35 + 142 + 91 + 41 + 40 + 53 + 28 = 582 career coaches votes for Geelong's 21-26 year old cohort. 11 players featuring.

You have to be looking at 5+ years before contending when there is that sort of gap in the quality 21-26 year old part of your list.

 

[MisterMarcus]

Spot on. I actually promised Meteoric Rise I would complete the 21-26 year old coaches votes tallies for each side upon his request, to show him that this is where Richmond have a relative lack of quality.

3 + 17 + 1 + 4 + 68 = 93 career coaches votes for Richmond's 21-26 year old cohort. 6 players featuring.

3 + 20 + 20 + 107 + 3 + 35 + 142 + 91 + 41 + 40 + 53 + 28 = 582 career coaches votes for Geelong's 21-26 year old cohort. 11 players featuring.

You have to be looking at 5+ years before contending when there is that sort of gap in the quality 21-26 year old part of your list.

Reminds me a bit of our "Not Quite" years, where we still had all the old veterans, and blokes like Miers/Zuthrie/Close/JHenry/SDK/Holmes were all raw unproven youth.

And we had like 3 guys between like 21 and 27 who looked remotely AFL quality.

 

[Mr Meow]

Remind me a bit of our "Not Quite" years, where we still had all the old veterans, and blokes like Miers/Zuthrie/Close/JHenry/SDK/Holmes were all raw unproven youth.

And we had like 3 guys between like 21 and 27 who looked remotely AFL quality.

Agreed.

Cowan, Menzel (post ACLs), Murdoch, Ruggles, Caddy, Walker, Brown, Kersten, Horlin-Smith, Lang, Gregson, Parsons, Narkle, Constable and Ratugolea made up the bulk of our early-mid 20s squad for a period. Obviously there were a few highlights with Duncan, Blicavs and Cam Guthrie (as well as some mature age draft successes) but it wasn't until the players you've listed there were drafted and developed that it was an area with more reasonable depth.

Now the issue is more that there are only a few veterans still playing really good footy. And one of those (Danger) is now a burst player, not the main man.

 

[Cdog71]

Actually looking into their list and lineups, Richmond actually have a bit of a weird "Old/Young" profile.

They have a host of potentially promising young players, but on the other hand almost everyone on their list in their late 20s and 30s would still be best 22 - or at least solid AFL level quality.

It's more the middle 20s age range, where there's a bunch of guys like Koschitzke where even Tigers fan admit that the jury is still out (or are obvious placeholders until someone better comes along), that might be the problem in the short term. Losing four of their best players in that age range sure didn't help either.

That’s true.
I’ve got a feeling we might end up with more wins this season than next season.

Dempsey only played 7 games in his first two years had a great year last year and won the award.
Probably would’ve gone to Reid or Darcy if they hadn’t become ineligible.
But still he’s a beauty.
Holmes is a really good fwd transition player with speed that’s hard to deal with, some here saying his injury was the difference in the prelim…maybe, hard to shuffle everyone around to get that sortve run in the game but the fact is Geelong where up by 25 points after halftime but only managed to kick 25 points for the second half.
They where shut down and overrun.
That’s not about one player.

Hopefully Lalor can stay healthy and we get to see him play. Not every club had him at Pick 1 but what I really liked is he played Half fwd and all we got to see was him making space for himself, releasing his teammates by hand and making himself available to others.
Really played well as a Half fwd.
I find it hard to believe he would’ve been identified as a first Rnd pick playing as a half fwd.
Haven’t seen his kicking game yet or how he plays and bursts around stoppages and centre bounces.
Tiges have got some talent in the door hopefully they stay healthy and develop.