Analysis The Rebuilds Of Hawthorn and Geelong and their Future Prospects

[Jack Green]

Maybe even 6 decades eh ?

And don't the Saints faithful know it, Harry .
You've placed the Hawks 12th -14th next year on their rebuild journey. Not an unrealistic expectation considering, and I think most supporters would agree!
6 decades no, but as your CEO alluded to last year , the chase for the next piece of silverware, is by no means a 'quick process."

 

[HairyO]

And don't the Saints faithful know it, Harry .
You've placed the Hawks 12th -14th next year on their rebuild journey. Not an unrealistic expectation considering, and I think most supporters would agree!
6 decades no, but as your CEO alluded to last year , the chase for the next piece of silverware, is by no means a 'quick process."

Especially since the CEO and President decided to sack the best coach in the comp.

 

[Del165198]

Geelong are gonna need to gut the list, probably at the end of next year. They'll probably finish top 4 but again will be an absolute mile off the pace in finals

 

[Pessimistic]

Hocking leaving Geelong, going to league HQ changing a shitload of rules than going back to Geelong - people should rightly laugh at our code

 

[Jack Green]

Especially since the CEO and President decided to sack the best coach in the comp.

Total agreement. Personally always given the Hawks for many years 2 extra wins on the basis of your departing coach .
See you factored in something similar on your ladder forecasts.
Those bonus wins now gone, be interesting how SM goes. And that is why some of the Hawthorn forecasts for next season are...........interesting!

 

[juss]

These 2 are not at the same stage at all.
Geelong keep trying to push this list to its absolute limits and top up to stay finals/top 4 competitive. They will make finals again and think they can win the flag, even though they won't.

Hawks it sounds like Mitchell realises there is a few years of pain and they need to build through elite young talent, and they're likely to have a few more years outside the 8 and they know it.

I dont see how you can really compare these different stages.

 

[The 747]

Total agreement. Personally always given the Hawks for many years 2 extra wins on the basis of your departing coach .
See you factored in something similar on your ladder forecasts.
Those bonus wins now gone, be interesting how SM goes. And that is why some of the Hawthorn forecasts for next season are...........interesting!

Very hard to predict how the Hawks will go - was the last part of the season an indicator or was that Clarko's swansong motivating them?

How well will Mitchell take to coaching? How many wins did the gun coach manufacture in 2021, all of these are unknowns.

 

[Jack Green]

These 2 are not at the same stage at all.
Geelong keep trying to push this list to its absolute limits and top up to stay finals/top 4 competitive. They will make finals again and think they can win the flag, even though they won't.

Hawks it sounds like Mitchell realises there is a few years of pain and they need to build through elite young talent, and they're likely to have a few more years outside the 8 and they know it.

I dont see how you can really compare these different stages.

Very hard to predict how the Hawks will go - was the last part of the season an indicator or was that Clarko's swansong motivating them?

How well will Mitchell take to coaching? How many wins did the gun coach manufacture in 2021, all of these are unknowns.

I would have thought so 747, but looking at the Hawthorn forum's ,they are known.
Even though Mitchell hasn't coached an AFL game

 

[Mr.X]

Cats aren't in rebuild mode as they are still contending

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Especially since the CEO and President decided to sack the best coach in the comp.

The footy dept and board had as much say as the CEO or president, and it was quite clear over the last 3-4 years that there were question marks over Clarkson’s coaching. Paying a coach $1.3mill to bounce around the bottom 4 is not good business.

I mean, we handed the last two wooden spooners their first wins of season in 2021 and 2022, got pulled apart by the Suns and continually lost the first quarter of every game.

 

[The 747]

I would have thought so 747, but looking at the Hawthorn forum's ,they are known.
Even though Mitchell hasn't coached an AFL game

Every club has their optimistic posters, especially during the off season after a year of not playing finals.

They are unknowns and the three reasonable Hawthorn posters would agree.

 

[juss]

Cats aren't in rebuild mode as they are still contending

They make finals, but I don't think they're truly contending.

Chris Scott has coached enough that we have a great sample size, 72% home and away win rate, 40% finals win rate.
Their game objectively doesn't stack up in finals.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

The last 3-4 years there were question marks over Clarkson's coaching.

I would have thought so, but not many Hawkers questioned it at the time.
Even yourself 2 years ago in July 2019 were all thumbs up that Clarko would win a flag before his contract expired in 2022!!!
And 78.5% of Hawk fans felt the same so you weren't Robinson Crusoe. And I suspect many Geelong fans would feel the same for their club . After continued and extended success why wouldn't you??
And you have the Hawks playing finals next year. You've stayed positive despite Clarko's departure. But you say quite clear, and question marks over Clarko's coaching
There were some lone voices on the Hawk boards exercising caution and questioning the direction of the club, Strapping - but the vast majority were all aboard the Clarko rebuild and very bullish about where it would take them !

A club with a coach who has won 4 flags had the majority of supporters behind him after playing finals a year earlier.

Is that really surprising?

If there was any supporter base in the comp that had every right to believe their coach could win a flag in 3 years, it was Hawthorn.

But he fluffed it, kept playing out of form veterans, wouldn’t promote attacking footy, missed on FA pick ups, wouldn’t let go of the top up, etc.

 

[HolyWars]

I just don’t see it. Jiath looks good, and I am all in on Ned Reeves, but it’s not an impressive list of guys 23 and under, based purely on exposed form.

Jackson Callow might be a jet though. Can’t help but be impressed with his size, given his age.View attachment 1266554

Surely you rate Koschitzke? He's the biggest prospect of them all given good KPPs are hard to come by.

27 goals in a debut season for a young KPF is a fantastic return.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Surely you rate Koschitzke? He's the biggest prospect of them all given good KPPs are hard to come by.

27 goals in a debut season for a young KPF is a fantastic return.

I don’t mind him. Looks a tier below the top end young Key position forwards.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I don’t mind him. Looks a tier below the top end young Key position forwards.

27 goals in your first 20 games as a key forward with little support from an old hand and a midfield that gets beaten 3 times out of 4, is bloody good going.

 

[Rasha]

Geelong had a young Selwood, and Hawkins to rebuild with and got a Dangerfield cheap via Free Agency threat. Then they cleverly used free agency, and going mature recruits to top up.

Apart for Cameron who is 27, their are no generational players coming through at Geelong.

The same strategy won’t work in future because the cornerstones are not their.

Tom Stewart is a generational player, and Jack Henry looks like he'll become a generational player as well. Geelong may have an old list but the cupboard isn't completely bare in terms of young/middle age quality players.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Tom Stewart is a generational player, and Jack Henry looks like he'll become a generational player as well. Geelong may have an old list but the cupboard isn't completely bare in terms of young/middle age quality players.

Generational players?

King Cold your Richmond alias is not exactly hiding your real club of support too well.

 

[Rasha]

Generational players?

King Cold your Richmond alias is not exactly hiding your real club of support too well.

Jeremy Cameron and Tom Stewart are definitely players who fit the criteria of generational players, are they not? The post I originally quoted actually pointed out Jeremy Cameron as being a generational player, and the post was made by a Fremantle supporter. I don't suppose you think that poster has a bias for whatever reason towards Geelong?

 

[thedecoy]

Hocking leaving Geelong, going to league HQ changing a shitload of rules than going back to Geelong - people should rightly laugh at our code

Man, the world must be a tough place to navigate when you are this stupid.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Jeremy Cameron and Tom Stewart are definitely players who fit the criteria of generational players, are they not?

No they are not.

 

[MCG-Unit]

Voted Geelong - majorly in the minority

 

[Hamingja]

These 2 are not at the same stage at all.
Geelong keep trying to push this list to its absolute limits and top up to stay finals/top 4 competitive. They will make finals again and think they can win the flag, even though they won't.

Hawks it sounds like Mitchell realises there is a few years of pain and they need to build through elite young talent, and they're likely to have a few more years outside the 8 and they know it.

I dont see how you can really compare these different stages.

Hawthorn have a two year head start on the rebuild already and it will probably be another two years before Geelong are forced to fully reset

 

[Fourthawn]

Geelong have never finished lower than 12th. Perhaps we will one day, and we have been fortunate so far.

Those players are difficult to replace, but so were Bartel, Ablett, Scarlett, Taylor, Ottens, Ling, Enright, Corey, Milburn, Johnston and they are all gone.

And how many premierships have you won since they departed?
What's that? None. Zero. Nil. Nada.
Fair to say then that those players were actually too difficult to replace. As will be the case with Selwood, Danger, Hawkins etc ...

 

[Rasha]

No they are not.

Fair enough and each to their own.
I do see Patrick Dangerfield as being a generational player but he's clearly a tier below Dustin Martin who is unarguably a generational player.

On a side note I do find it ironic you think I barrack for the Cats, because that's literally the first time anyone's said that to me in my time posting here.
For what it's worth, I've had a lot of people on here say to me they think I barrack for the Power.

Anyway back on topic. It goes without saying Hawthorn have the better prospects, and I do believe they made the right decision to sack Clarkson for Mitchell, while Geelong on the other hand made a mistake extending Chris Scott's contract this year after he coached Geelong to a 14 goal defeat in a preliminary final, while being at the helm for 10 years now without winning a flag.