Prediction The Run Home- The next six Games and beyond

[Doggstats]

Really need Freo to cause same damage in their last 2 games vs GWS and Port..

 

[fred cook]

The sentence Freo causing damage is something I think makes no sense

 

[Doggy]

The sentence Freo causing damage is something I think makes no sense

They'll have Treacy and Darcy back. Missed them badly this week, the difference really

 

[scooter600x]

By the odds it's more likely that we drop one of our last 3 than not one of these 6 games to go in our favour.

Furthermore, for the Dogs to win all 3 and still miss top 4 would require 9 games (3 of ours, 6 others) to go in a specific direction. It's not likely. How often do you tip all 9 games correctly in a round of football?

We don’t need them all to happen. We need one of those six games to go our way.

 

[Sentinel]

We don’t need them all to happen. We need one of those six games to go our way.

I know. People are concerned that we could win 3 games and still miss the 4. I'm saying for that to eventuate 9 games must go in a particular direction.

If any of those 9 games don't go in that direction then the situation doesn't occur (we lose 1 and miss anyway, or one of the 6 other games happens and we make the 4).

 

[hutchy31]

In this year, with no strong contender, I’d be focusing on what we can do.

Beat the crows, north and giants and we’ll likely be 4th-6th. Who cares who we get then. Every team at that point is beatable, or able to beat us.

 

[dogwatch]

Thanks BB. It would have done my head in trying to work out who to barrack for today, so I'll take your word for it.

Go you good things!

Well that went to shit.

Thanks anyway Suns. One small pleasure to be taken from those results.

 

[Doggy]

Well that went to shit.

Thanks anyway Suns. One small pleasure to be taken from those results.

I guess if we win out then there's a decent chance of 4th.

 

[The Inbetweener]

In this year, with no strong contender, I’d be focusing on what we can do.

Beat the crows, north and giants and we’ll likely be 4th-6th. Who cares who we get then. Every team at that point is beatable, or able to beat us.

Agree but finishing top 4 gives us a legitimate chance of securing a home preliminary final. This is almost no chance should be finish outside the top 4.

 

[dogwatch]

The Run Home -

The Next Six Games:

• Crows (W)
• Roos (W)
• Giants (W)
• QF (W)
• PF (W)
• GF (W)

And beyond:

 

[olimauldon]

Am I correct in thinking if we win today we should be pretty safe to lock a spot into the eight

 

[_Cerberus_]

Am I correct in thinking if we win today we should be pretty safe to lock a spot into the eight

No. Just one more win, and two losses leaves us with 52 points. The teams below us Hawks, Blues and Essendon can all finish on 54-56 points. Which would leave us in 9th.

Three wins, great and likely chance at a top 4 finish.
Two wins 100 percent in finals.
One win, still good odds to make finals. But we can still finish 9th depending on other results.
Zero wins, we miss out.

 

[Merlins Revenge]

So if we win all our remaining games, to finish top 4, we need Collingwood to beat Brisbane at the G or Freo to beat Port in Freo, right?

 

[GOAUS!]

Am I correct in thinking if we win today we should be pretty safe to lock a spot into the eight

Nah Carlton still have a fairly easy fixture and should win their remaining two games. Win the next 2 and I think that would be enough.

 

[MYOB]

So if we win all our remaining games, to finish top 4, we need Collingwood to beat Brisbane at the G or Freo to beat Port in Freo, right?

If win our next 3 games, we need only one of these outcomes to finish top 4

Coll to beat Bris
Adel to beat Port
Saints to beat Geel
Ess to beat Bris
WC to beat Geel
Freo to beat Port

 

[Hoges64]

Well, this was predictable.

 

[_Mike_]

Well, this was predictable.

But not surprising tbh

 

[_Cerberus_]

My current predictor has two scenarios. Play the red hot Hawks at the G in an elimination final. They will smash us.

Or lose to GWS in the final round and miss out altogether. Perhaps more dignity there.

Either way we truly F'd it up today.

No sympathy though. Players have shown then cannot rock up for more than 3 or 4 weeks in a row, without playing a horrible game. Which is required to win the flag. Now we have to do it the hard way with every single game from now on being a final. Essentially 6 weeks of elimination finals starting next weekend.

 

[Dog 36]

Prefer we go our predictable way and lose to North at least saves another week of waiting to be let down again.

they cannot be trusted and have learnt nothing form WC loss in 2023

 

[dogwatch]

My current predictor has two scenarios. Play the red hot Hawks at the G in an elimination final. They will smash us.

Or lose to GWS in the final round and miss out altogether. Perhaps more dignity there.

Either way we truly F'd it up today.

...

It's so hard to know. We just beat the three top teams on the ladder. Comprehensively.

Bring that form and we'll beat Hawthorn and GWS easily. But who knows in any given week which WB side will turn up?

 

[_Cerberus_]

It's so hard to know. We just beat the three top teams on the ladder. Comprehensively.

Bring that form and we'll beat Hawthorn and GWS easily. But who knows in any given week which WB side will turn up?

Thats the issue. We are either really good, or really bad. There is no knowing which is the real team. On form we are still a good team, purely because of the accumulation of the past two months of football. But the two losses both in Adelaide were pretty bad.

 

[Sentinel]

 

[Doggy]

View attachment 2076391

Make that finals...

 

[Sentinel]

Make that finals...

Season isn't over yet.

 

[Doggy]

Season isn't over yet.

It's said above... either sneak in and play hawthorn and get smashed ... or lose to the plastics and don't even make it.

This is 2023 all over again