Prediction The Run Home- The next six Games and beyond

[Bald]

It's said above... either sneak in and play hawthorn and get smashed ... or lose to the plastics and don't even make it.

This is 2023 all over again

No it’s not.

People need to relax. We will be there when the whips are cracking.

 

[Doggy]

No it’s not.

People need to relax. We will be there when the whips are cracking.

You do realise that means we have to beat the plastics ... and North. On today's form round 24 will be a loss.

And then play Hawthorn if that somehow does happen. That will go well.

 

[Bald]

You do realise that means we have to beat the plastics ... and North. On today's form round 24 will be a loss.

Yes. I know how to read a fixture.

 

[The Inbetweener]

Pretty surprised that we are still $1.12 to play finals.

 

[Sentinel]

You do realise that means we have to beat the plastics ... and North. On today's form round 24 will be a loss.

And then play Hawthorn if that somehow does happen. That will go well.

We can lose to GWS and make it.

Nothing to do with this season is set in stone weeks out.

 

[Doggy]

We can lose to GWS and make it.

Nothing to do with this season is set in stone weeks out.

In a very very unlikely scenario ..

 

[Sentinel]

In a very very unlikely scenario ..

No. Lose to GWS and at this stage we are more likely than not to make it. There are multiple scenarios.

 

[WB_]

You do realise that means we have to beat the plastics ... and North. On today's form round 24 will be a loss.

And then play Hawthorn if that somehow does happen. That will go well.

We had an equally disastrous performance against Port at the same ground, before an outstanding month of form. Why assume today is the new normal rather than a semi-outlier?

 

[BallaratBulldog]

For example Eagles might beat Carlton in Perth the way they are going. That would see us through after beating North

 

[Doggy]

No. Lose to GWS and at this stage we are more likely than not to make it. There are multiple scenarios.

That involve Carlton or Freo losing both games...

 

[Doggy]

For example Eagles might beat Carlton in Perth the way they are going. That would see us through after beating North

That's true.. but who wants to make it by scraping 1 from our last 3

 

[Sentinel]

That involve Carlton or Freo losing both games...

Carlton need to win both. Hawthorn need to win both. Freo need to win at least 1 (and likely start underdogs in both).

We rely on Freo results to go as expected, or Carlton/Hawthorn to drop a game. Multiple scenarios that combined are more than 50% likely to occur, not "very very unlikely" (all assuming we get over North).

There's a reason why we are $1.12 to make finals and that is not our odds of winning both games to come.

 

[Oliver G]

I've got us finishing 9th now, beating North but losing the Giants...



3rd best percentage but missing the 8, just shows how big those losses were. If we do end up beating the Giants, I've got us playing Hawthorn in a home final. One thing is for certain as always in the Bevo era it will come down to the last game of the year.

 

[Doggy]

Carlton need to win both. Hawthorn need to win both. Freo need to win at least 1 (and likely start underdogs in both).

We rely on Freo results to go as expected, or Carlton/Hawthorn to drop a game. Multiple scenarios that combined are more than 50% likely to occur, not very very unlikely (all assuming we get over North).

There's a reason why we are $1.12 to make finals.

Hawthorn isn't dropping 1. It just won't happen.

Carlton could but theirs is also a fairly easy run despite their form.

Freo will have some players back this week and I bet beat Port

 

[Doggy]

I've got us finishing 9th now, beating North but losing the Giants...

View attachment 2076434

3rd best percentage but missing the 8, just shows how big those losses were. If we do end up beating the Giants, I've got us playing Hawthorn in a home final. One thing is for certain as always in the Bevo era it will come down to the last game of the year.

Yep... and getting beaten by Hawthorn would be a fair bit of fun

 

[Sentinel]

Hawthorn isn't dropping 1. It just won't happen.

Carlton could but theirs is also a fairly easy run despite their form.

Freo will have some players back this week and I bet beat Port

And the Bulldogs weren't winning 4 on the trot against Carlton, Geelong, Sydney and Melbourne

 

[Doggy]

And the Bulldogs weren't winning 4 on the trot against Carlton, Geelong, Sydney and Melbourne

You can keep your unwavering optimism.

It won't last much longer

 

[Dog 36]

Hawthorn isn't dropping 1. It just won't happen.

Carlton could but theirs is also a fairly easy run despite their form.

Freo will have some players back this week and I bet beat Port

Botton line is we stuffed it up again and we will need to win both games vs North and GWS

Neither game is a certainty because this team cannot be trusted

 

[Sentinel]

You can keep your unwavering optimism.

It won't last much longer

It's not unwavering optimism. It's the odds.

Happy for you if we miss out.

 

[ScragCity]

We're not as bad as we looked against the Crows and we aren't as good as we looked during The Streak. We're 7th on the ladder and that feels about right that we are probably the 7th best side.

 

[hutchy31]

Pretty surprised that we are still $1.12 to play finals.

I had to check that, it’s $1.08 at the TAB and $6.75 to miss - which is surely worth a few bucks as an emotional hedge.

Even if we beat North, a loss to GWS wouldn’t be unexpected. Hawthorn will win their last two so would overtake us, then one of Essendon or Carlton would need to jump up by winning their last two. I suppose thats unlikely given the bombers can’t be trusted under pressure and the blues had about six injuries today, but it’s not out of the question.

After today though I’m not sure we’ll beat North. The gap between our best and worst remains enormous, probably the biggest gap in the comp. It remains to be seen what side shows up next week.

 

[Bald]

Botton line is we stuffed it up again and we will need to win both games vs North and GWS

Neither game is a certainty because this team cannot be trusted

Wait till you figure out that nothing is a certainty.

 

[Golden_6]

Assuming we win against North & lose to the Giants, we miss finals if the Blues win both & Freo win just one game.

Obviously we can just save ourselves some pain and win both.

If we win both, it’s pretty hard to find ourselves anywhere but playing a final against the Hawks at the G which is a terrible result. What a truly awful weekend this has been.

 

[bigdog54]

This has 2023 written all over it. North will put us out of our misery next week.

 

[Oliver G]

This is the third consecutive year we've gone into the final month of the season in 8th spot and the fourth consecutive year of being in a commanding position with a reasonable or better draw and not capitalising. It’s incredible how predictable we are…

2024 - 8th On Ladder (1-1)
R21 vs. Melbourne (51 point win)
R22 vs. Adelaide (39 point loss)
R23 vs. North Melbourne
R24 vs. GWS
Currently 7th, 11.1% ahead of 9th.

2023 - 8th On Ladder (2-2)
R21 vs. Richmond (55 point win)
R22 vs. Hawthorn (3 point loss)
R23 vs. West Coast (7 point loss)
R24 vs. Geelong (25 point win)
Finished 9th, 2 points out of the 8.

2022 - 8th On Ladder (2-2)
R20 vs. Geelong (28 point loss)
R21 vs. Fremantle (17 point loss)
R22 vs. GWS (5 point win)
R23 vs. Hawthorn (23 point win)
Finished 8th, 0.55% ahead of 9th.

2021 - 1st On Ladder (1-4)
R20 vs. Adelaide (49 point win)
R21 vs. Essendon (13 point loss)
R22 vs. Hawthorn (27 point loss)
R23 vs. Port Adelaide (2 point loss)
Finished 5th, missed the top 4 by 0.43%.