Prediction The Run Home- The next six Games and beyond

[dogwatch]

This is the third consecutive year we've gone into the final month of the season in 8th spot and the fourth consecutive year of being in a commanding position with a reasonable or better draw and not capitalising. It’s incredible how predictable we are…

2024 - 8th On Ladder (1-1)
R21 vs. Melbourne (51 point win)
R22 vs. Adelaide (39 point loss)
R23 vs. North Melbourne
R24 vs. GWS
Currently 7th, 11.1% ahead of 9th.

2023 - 8th On Ladder (2-2)
R21 vs. Richmond (55 point win)
R22 vs. Hawthorn (3 point loss)
R23 vs. West Coast (7 point loss)
R24 vs. Geelong (25 point win)
Finished 9th, 2 points out of the 8.

2022 - 8th On Ladder (2-2)
R20 vs. Geelong (28 point loss)
R21 vs. Fremantle (17 point loss)
R22 vs. GWS (5 point win)
R23 vs. Hawthorn (23 point win)
Finished 8th, 0.55% ahead of 9th.

2021 - 1st On Ladder (1-4)
R20 vs. Adelaide (49 point win)
R21 vs. Essendon (13 point loss)
R22 vs. Hawthorn (27 point loss)
R23 vs. Port Adelaide (2 point loss)
Finished 5th, missed the top 4 by 0.43%.

That's classic mid-table mediocrity for 2022-2024. Stuck in the 7th-12th no man's land.

It's not too late to rescue 2024 but on today's showing it's hard to see us doing it.

 

[ScragCity]

There's always next year

 

[Doggy]

Assuming we win against North & lose to the Giants, we miss finals if the Blues win both & Freo win just one game.

Obviously we can just save ourselves some pain and win both.

If we win both, it’s pretty hard to find ourselves anywhere but playing a final against the Hawks at the G which is a terrible result. What a truly awful weekend this has been.

Which is why I didn't want them in but some on here that can't see beyond 1 week thought that Hawthorn winning each week was for the best.

 

[revo333]

The way the season has gone we were going to drop a game to the crows or north.

Smashed by Demons and Bombers in the first 5 rounds of the season, both won't play finals so it's hard for us to feel hard done by and think we deserve to make finals.

 

[BrisDog]

We needed more attack on the ball and speed against that mob. I don’t see it in Coffield. Bring Freijah back. Buku….dunno, great in the air but does not chase and cannot hold a tackle.

Anyone wanna play for their life in the seconds. Just some hard campaigner.

No dropping Garcia - no f’ing way.

 

[BrisDog]

Oh - and Darcy looked better in the ruck contests than Tim, substantially. Not sure how either go against Xerri.

 

[MYOB]

At least we now know who to barrack for in the remaining games

 

[House_of_Dahl]

So assuming the plan from here is lose to North and then beat GWS in a dead rubber to finish 9th...

 

[dogwatch]

So assuming the plan from here is lose to North and then beat GWS in a dead rubber to finish 9th...

Could be 9th.
Or could be 8th … and a flag.

 

[BrisDog]

So assuming the plan from here is lose to North and then beat GWS in a dead rubber to finish 9th...

If we cannot get fired up for these campaigners we are kidding ourselves.

North are hard at it, but we have so much more class. We should flog them if we are fair dinkum.

Carlton are in strife in my books.

 

[Golden_6]

So what happens if we win 1 of 2 games and finish 9th again?

It's clear we've made an improvements in a number of areas but that would be 2 years in a row we've wasted season by dropping games against bottom 4 teams. How could Bevo possibly stay in that scenario?

 

[Doggy]

So what happens if we win 1 of 2 games and finish 9th again?

It's clear we've made an improvements in a number of areas but that would be 2 years in a row we've wasted season by dropping games against bottom 4 teams. How could Bevo possibly stay in that scenario?

Nothing.

They'll point to that 4 game stretch

 

[_Mike_]

North and GWS games are must win games from here.

 

[Bald]

I've done a ladder predictor. 8th spot finishes on 13 wins, IMO.

 

[Unorth]

Nothing.

They'll point to that 4 game stretch

I can already see the Bains/KWW spin.

While missing out on finals is disappointing for us all, we are pleased with how the team evolved over the course of the season. By beating teams placed first through third on the ladder in a three week period, something done only once before in afl history, we displayed impressive potential and believe in the direction we’re headed in 2025 and beyond. We are pleased to announce a two year extension for our senior coach Luke Beveridge, and are excited to see where he takes this team over the coming years.

2025 ladder position: 9th

 

[House_of_Dahl]

I've done a ladder predictor. 8th spot finishes on 13 wins, IMO.

My predictor has us finishing 9th if we drop either one of north or gws games...

 

[adogsfan5]

My predictor has us finishing 9th if we drop either one of north or gws games...

We basically need Carlton to drop 1 game. Let’s go Eagles!

 

[Bald]

We basically need Carlton to drop 1 game. Let’s go Eagles!

If Curnow doesn't play, then I have Saints getting them in their final game.

 

[F6Typhoon]

Woke this morning thinking I’d had a terrible dream yesterday.. Then realised, it wasn’t a dream, It’s damn Groundhog Day!
Same rinse & repeat year after bloody year

 

[BEaston]

The ladder is so close, there are still heaps of possibilities/permutations. Including finishing top 4.

We've generally backed up a shit game with a strong performance. Can't see us losing against North.

 

[BEaston]

Any of Brisbane, Port, GWS, Freo, Carlton could lose both their remaining games. All are in questionable form or are playing contending teams.

 

[Doggy]

The ladder is so close, there are still heaps of possibilities/permutations. Including finishing top 4.

We've generally backed up a shit game with a strong performance. Can't see us losing against North.

Top 4 is extremely unlikely

 

[my plums]

Just win the next two and see what happens after that. It’s still in our hands.

 

[hutchy31]

Top 4 is extremely unlikely

Yeah, that's a pipe dream now.

Best we can hope for is a home EF with two wins, or finishing 7th/8th with one win and other results going our way. Either way there's a decent chance we get the hawks, which might not be ideal, and if we finish 7th/8th there's a strong chance we're playing them or travelling interstate.

 

[Dogs Rule]

Yeah, that's a pipe dream now.

Best we can hope for is a home EF with two wins, or finishing 7th/8th with one win and other results going our way. Either way there's a decent chance we get the hawks, which might not be ideal, and if we finish 7th/8th there's a strong chance we're playing them or travelling interstate.

Yep, shot ourselves in the foot for top 4 yet again. Would need a miracle to get top 4 now (a million to one) when it could've been so much more simple, but hey, that's our club. Just hope we snag 5th against whoever.

Play the Hawks and beat them, I've had a gutful of the hype.