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AFLW 2024 - Round 7 - Pride Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Of course you wouldn't he's in your top 5(7)Me either.
He’s a more advanced Rance at that ageActually wouldn't mind Tauru
mcshite is in damage controlMcCrap banging on about how he reckons the draft is overrated….prefers ready made players…um like….Lockie Schmaltz
Actually wouldn't mind Tauru
If we can get 13 from gc, send 13 and baker for 7. 1,6,7,10,11,20,24 to the draftSaints will give 7 & 27 for pick 3.
W?C give us 23 ?
Na bro
Blair ‘Chuck Morris’ Hartley got this
I don't think you understand how these things work. Let me explain it to you simpleton.Sorry for the intrusion. As long as Cameron holds it together which I now think he will, the offer for Rioli 10 minutes before the deadline will still be just 6. And I think everyone knows with the choice of either keeping Rioli or having 6, you’re gonna be taking 6.
My question is would you rather actually just do 6 for Rioli on Monday morning so you could potentially use 6 in swaps, or would you want to wait until the deadline?
mcshite is in damage control
delusional
Man what a rollercoaster ride this trade period has been, kudos AFL, should make it a month
Chuck Morris is the wish version of Chuck NorrisChuck Morris?
….you're not giving me comfort bro
Forgot to include baker in my trade proposal …. We could make out like bandits if we do this rightMight be unpopular but maybe trade pick 1 for 2 picks inside the top 10 and one pick in the late teens …. Then get 10 and 11 for Bolton and 6 and pick in the 20s for Rioli and bobs your uncle! We win the trade/draft period
You second paragraph contradicts your first.
well reading all the different rankings the players are all over the shopThere's not a top 6-7. There's a top 2 (not counting Ashcroft and Lombard), then there's a second group. Pick 3 is not worth much more than pick 7 in this draft - unless we can use it the way Calcium suggests.
You can still do swaps all the way till the draft boss and on the nightSorry for the intrusion. As long as Cameron holds it together which I now think he will, the offer for Rioli 10 minutes before the deadline will still be just 6. And I think everyone knows with the choice of either keeping Rioli or having 6, you’re gonna be taking 6.
My question is would you rather actually just do 6 for Rioli on Monday morning so you could potentially use 6 in swaps, or would you want to wait until the deadline?
Jagga comes after FOS and Lalor
We need pick 1 and 2 for dusty and cotchi personally don't see a need to trade for 2 or 3 considering the supposed top 6-7 players (we'd have 2 picks) and then it evens out past that for the rest
get our Cotch and Dusty 1st 2 picks and build around them with the other 4-5 picks
we still have next year and the year after, to pick an extra 2 at least A graders before Tassie comes in
Look, this is probably not what happened at all, it is just one possible explanation I thought of that might explain the lopsided looking deal.
But to say it is dumb is to say that any example of the following is by definition dumb:
- AFL teams trading future picks in when they are uncertain of the value of those picks(what Richmond would have been doing in my scenario) but trading out something of more certain value(like Richmond pledging 4 picks = to or greater then 1700 points in my scenario.)
So take the Collingwood-Fremantle deal over Schultz, Collingwood wanted a less toublesome small forward than Ginnivan as a priority and were prepared to risk their F1 pick to get him. It blew up in their face when the future pick became more valuable than anticipated. Collingwood KNEW what they were getting, they just didn't know what they were paying for it. But Fremantle, they were the ones really speculating. They released a required contracted player for pick 32 and a future pick that could have realistically ended up as late as about 23rd in the 2024 draft. They gave up a certain position to speculate on an uncertain outcome. And they had a nice win. In truth the deal was always probably tilted in their favour, so it was clearly a great speculation from the outset.
What you are saying here is Collingwood did nothing wrong because they were getting a known outcome. But Fremantle did a dumb thing because they were getting an unknown outcome.
All speculations carry downside and upside risk. Let's say a deal like what I speculated on was made after rd 12 for instance. The Lions were sitting in 13th place on the ladder. There would have been a very real risk they were going to be coughing up a top 10 pick. Unlikely, but realistically in play. Certainly more realistic than finishing 5th on the ladder, then winning the flag from there and the pick plummetting to 23 or wherever it ends up.
So if the deal was made by Richmond at that point to pledge 1700 points in 4 or less picks for the Brisbane Rd 1 2024 pick, was it really dumb by Richmond? Or was it a very decent bet that just happened to get worst case sceanrio'd? I made a living from betting for around 20 years so I understand the nature of speculation. I would take that bet if I were Richmond every day of the week, and lock it in. And I would never have even concerned myself with the eventual result. My job was simply to make as many good bets as I possibly could. That requires entering the market at a point when you think(but can never know for certain) you have good value.
A bad outcome doesn't magically turn a good decision into a bad one. A good outcome doesn't magically turn a bad decision into a good one. Blair Hartley is in the business of making all sorts of decisions that carry upside and downside risk. Trades, contracts, delists etc etc. He has absolutely no way of ensuring none of those decisions have bad outcomes. So all he can do is exercise good judgement, knowing that over time this will more likely than not lead to good outcomes.
It would be intriguing to know whether something like this would ever actually take place or whether there is some other reason Richmond apparently gave up value in this trade. However, I doubt we will ever know for certain.
Actually wouldn't mind Tauru
They love it. They know all us campaigners will be glued to all their media every day.
You second paragraph contradicts your first.
sorry should have worded it better
"get our Cotch and Dusty with our 1st 2 picks (1 and 6)
won't know who that is until a few years yet, no guarantee FOS and Lalor will be the highest ceilingYou get the two players with the highest ceiling in the draft if you go 1&2 this is why clubs are scrambling to pick them!
I thought he slid to 8