List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency - Fred 11

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Updated Picks As Of October 11th

 

[tigs2010]

Me either.

Of course you wouldn't he's in your top 5(7)

 

[Karp3_dm]

Actually wouldn't mind Tauru

He’s a more advanced Rance at that age

 

[Groupie_]

McCrap banging on about how he reckons the draft is overrated….prefers ready made players…um like….Lockie Schmaltz

mcshite is in damage control

delusional

 

[Karp3_dm]

Yeah start to play mind games.

Hey North you trade with Melbourne we are going for Pick 3 and taking Tauru bro.

Blair be like

 

[Groupie_]

Actually wouldn't mind Tauru

 

[Barunga Bullet]

Saints will give 7 & 27 for pick 3.
W?C give us 23 ?

If we can get 13 from gc, send 13 and baker for 7. 1,6,7,10,11,20,24 to the draft

 

[Rubber Hips]

Na bro
Blair ‘Chuck Morris’ Hartley got this

Chuck Morris?

….you're not giving me comfort bro

 

[tigersnag]

Sorry for the intrusion. As long as Cameron holds it together which I now think he will, the offer for Rioli 10 minutes before the deadline will still be just 6. And I think everyone knows with the choice of either keeping Rioli or having 6, you’re gonna be taking 6.

My question is would you rather actually just do 6 for Rioli on Monday morning so you could potentially use 6 in swaps, or would you want to wait until the deadline?

I don't think you understand how these things work. Let me explain it to you simpleton.

How's your new recruit going to feel about not knowing if the club that has chased his services are waiting until the last 10 minutes of the trade period to get their target and seal the deal?
All because you don't want to give up another pick that you can only use for points.

What about the next player that you want to recruit to your s**tstain of a club?
Will they be keen to lay it out there of their desired move, knowing the nong doing the trading won't pay the price and it might not work out.

I think it's fair to say that if Gold Coast don't make massive inroads next season then you may as well shutter the fooking doors. Quite frankly I couldn't give a shit if they did, just a drain on the competition.

 

[RichoLedio]

Man what a rollercoaster ride this trade period has been, kudos AFL, should make it a month

 

[Rubber Hips]

mcshite is in damage control

delusional

McCooked is in denial…thinks his shite don’t stink….meanwhile his house is burning down

 

[Tigerbob]

Man what a rollercoaster ride this trade period has been, kudos AFL, should make it a month

They love it. They know all us campaigners will be glued to all their media every day.

 

[Rocco sifreddi]

Chuck Morris?

….you're not giving me comfort bro

Chuck Morris is the wish version of Chuck Norris

 

[lizard man]

Might be unpopular but maybe trade pick 1 for 2 picks inside the top 10 and one pick in the late teens …. Then get 10 and 11 for Bolton and 6 and pick in the 20s for Rioli and bobs your uncle! We win the trade/draft period

Forgot to include baker in my trade proposal …. We could make out like bandits if we do this right

 

[Stan Judkins]

View attachment 2140111

You second paragraph contradicts your first.

You second paragraph contradicts your first.
sorry should have worded it better
"get our Cotch and Dusty with our 1st 2 picks (1 and 6)

There's not a top 6-7. There's a top 2 (not counting Ashcroft and Lombard), then there's a second group. Pick 3 is not worth much more than pick 7 in this draft - unless we can use it the way Calcium suggests.

well reading all the different rankings the players are all over the shop
some have Smith clear 1, FOS and Lalor 7 and 8
no one knows who will go top 10 and in what order, hence the evenness of this year's draft

 

[AstuteTiger]

 

[Rubber Hips]

Jagga comes after FOS and Lalor

 

[HumanMeatball]

Sorry for the intrusion. As long as Cameron holds it together which I now think he will, the offer for Rioli 10 minutes before the deadline will still be just 6. And I think everyone knows with the choice of either keeping Rioli or having 6, you’re gonna be taking 6.

My question is would you rather actually just do 6 for Rioli on Monday morning so you could potentially use 6 in swaps, or would you want to wait until the deadline?

You can still do swaps all the way till the draft boss and on the night

 

[AstuteTiger]

Jagga comes after FOS and Lalor

If we snag pick 3 which is looking more likely than not, then any 2 of Jagga Smith, Finn O'Sullivan and Sam Lawlor is a win for Richmond

 

[Barunga Bullet]

i personally don't see a need to trade for 2 or 3 considering the supposed top 6-7 players (we'd have 2 picks) and then it evens out past that for the rest

get our Cotch and Dusty 1st 2 picks and build around them with the other 4-5 picks
we still have next year and the year after, to pick an extra 2 at least A graders before Tassie comes in

We need pick 1 and 2 for dusty and cotch

 

[Rubber Hips]

If we snag pick 3 which is looking more likely than not, then any 2 of Jagga Smith, Finn O'Sullivan and Sam Lawlor is a win for Richmond

Bring that on sir…

 

[Groupie_]

I thought he slid to 8

 

[Noidnadroj]

Look, this is probably not what happened at all, it is just one possible explanation I thought of that might explain the lopsided looking deal.

But to say it is dumb is to say that any example of the following is by definition dumb:

- AFL teams trading future picks in when they are uncertain of the value of those picks(what Richmond would have been doing in my scenario) but trading out something of more certain value(like Richmond pledging 4 picks = to or greater then 1700 points in my scenario.)

So take the Collingwood-Fremantle deal over Schultz, Collingwood wanted a less toublesome small forward than Ginnivan as a priority and were prepared to risk their F1 pick to get him. It blew up in their face when the future pick became more valuable than anticipated. Collingwood KNEW what they were getting, they just didn't know what they were paying for it. But Fremantle, they were the ones really speculating. They released a required contracted player for pick 32 and a future pick that could have realistically ended up as late as about 23rd in the 2024 draft. They gave up a certain position to speculate on an uncertain outcome. And they had a nice win. In truth the deal was always probably tilted in their favour, so it was clearly a great speculation from the outset.

What you are saying here is Collingwood did nothing wrong because they were getting a known outcome. But Fremantle did a dumb thing because they were getting an unknown outcome.

All speculations carry downside and upside risk. Let's say a deal like what I speculated on was made after rd 12 for instance. The Lions were sitting in 13th place on the ladder. There would have been a very real risk they were going to be coughing up a top 10 pick. Unlikely, but realistically in play. Certainly more realistic than finishing 5th on the ladder, then winning the flag from there and the pick plummetting to 23 or wherever it ends up.

So if the deal was made by Richmond at that point to pledge 1700 points in 4 or less picks for the Brisbane Rd 1 2024 pick, was it really dumb by Richmond? Or was it a very decent bet that just happened to get worst case sceanrio'd? I made a living from betting for around 20 years so I understand the nature of speculation. I would take that bet if I were Richmond every day of the week, and lock it in. And I would never have even concerned myself with the eventual result. My job was simply to make as many good bets as I possibly could. That requires entering the market at a point when you think(but can never know for certain) you have good value.

A bad outcome doesn't magically turn a good decision into a bad one. A good outcome doesn't magically turn a bad decision into a good one. Blair Hartley is in the business of making all sorts of decisions that carry upside and downside risk. Trades, contracts, delists etc etc. He has absolutely no way of ensuring none of those decisions have bad outcomes. So all he can do is exercise good judgement, knowing that over time this will more likely than not lead to good outcomes.

It would be intriguing to know whether something like this would ever actually take place or whether there is some other reason Richmond apparently gave up value in this trade. However, I doubt we will ever know for certain.

My feeling is it’s simpler. This draft looks super strong and deep. Pick-20 was on the table, and we took it before it was bandied around elsewhere. Pick-20 could turn into multiple future selections (by sliding as we did prior to the McCauliffe pick) and a gun player.

It could turn into a future 1st which ends up a top-10 pick. It could be part of a trade that unlocks another top-10 pick when bundled with something else.

We need to ignore the points. Bottom line is pick-20 in this draft carries super value. The picks we gave up do not.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Calcium Man]

Actually wouldn't mind Tauru

He just has just great traits to work with. His kicking and decision making are inconsistent and iffy but the athleticism, fearlessness and aggression stand out.

They love it. They know all us campaigners will be glued to all their media every day.

That’s why I can’t fathom people complaining about it being boring. You know it’s gonna be boring and yet back day after day for the sugar rush when a trade actually drops.

You second paragraph contradicts your first.
sorry should have worded it better
"get our Cotch and Dusty with our 1st 2 picks (1 and 6)

Our Dusty and Cotchin are going 1 and 2. As RATD said there’s a clear 2 and Carlton, Saints, Dees, Bombers and us have been trying to get up the order to get them. Bombers gave up as they didn’t have the assets and the blues are out too now.

If other clubs thought they were a chance I reckon they would be trying to get into 2 as well.

 

[Stan Judkins]

You get the two players with the highest ceiling in the draft if you go 1&2 this is why clubs are scrambling to pick them!

won't know who that is until a few years yet, no guarantee FOS and Lalor will be the highest ceiling
just saying

 

[AstuteTiger]

I thought he slid to 8

Lol who said that The Age

Cal Twoomey has him at 3
Rookie.me central has him at 1
ESPN has him at 1