List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency - Fred 11

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Updated Picks As Of October 11th

 

[Groupie_]

what is Blair thinking right now I wonder

 

[Groupie_]

Nah mate we want the FoS/Lalor combo with a large fries.
Two best mates are made to be together.

we arent getting that unless we have pick 2

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Funny, but it's still bad business to make deals that way. Multiple teams need later picks for the points, including some teams that we are already looking to make deals with. Whatever small benefit there is to locking in a trade for a mystery pick is not worth forfeiting the bargaining power that those picks have and locking them out of any other potential deal that could materialize in the following months. It's just dumb, even if it's how the IRL brains of AFL list management often do it.

Look, this is probably not what happened at all, it is just one possible explanation I thought of that might explain the lopsided looking deal.

But to say it is dumb is to say that any example of the following is by definition dumb:

- AFL teams trading future picks in when they are uncertain of the value of those picks(what Richmond would have been doing in my scenario) but trading out something of more certain value(like Richmond pledging 4 picks = to or greater then 1700 points in my scenario.)

So take the Collingwood-Fremantle deal over Schultz, Collingwood wanted a less toublesome small forward than Ginnivan as a priority and were prepared to risk their F1 pick to get him. It blew up in their face when the future pick became more valuable than anticipated. Collingwood KNEW what they were getting, they just didn't know what they were paying for it. But Fremantle, they were the ones really speculating. They released a required contracted player for pick 32 and a future pick that could have realistically ended up as late as about 23rd in the 2024 draft. They gave up a certain position to speculate on an uncertain outcome. And they had a nice win. In truth the deal was always probably tilted in their favour, so it was clearly a great speculation from the outset.

What you are saying here is Collingwood did nothing wrong because they were getting a known outcome. But Fremantle did a dumb thing because they were getting an unknown outcome.

All speculations carry downside and upside risk. Let's say a deal like what I speculated on was made after rd 12 for instance. The Lions were sitting in 13th place on the ladder. There would have been a very real risk they were going to be coughing up a top 10 pick. Unlikely, but realistically in play. Certainly more realistic than finishing 5th on the ladder, then winning the flag from there and the pick plummetting to 23 or wherever it ends up.

So if the deal was made by Richmond at that point to pledge 1700 points in 4 or less picks for the Brisbane Rd 1 2024 pick, was it really dumb by Richmond? Or was it a very decent bet that just happened to get worst case sceanrio'd? I made a living from betting for around 20 years so I understand the nature of speculation. I would take that bet if I were Richmond every day of the week, and lock it in. And I would never have even concerned myself with the eventual result. My job was simply to make as many good bets as I possibly could. That requires entering the market at a point when you think(but can never know for certain) you have good value.

A bad outcome doesn't magically turn a good decision into a bad one. A good outcome doesn't magically turn a bad decision into a good one. Blair Hartley is in the business of making all sorts of decisions that carry upside and downside risk. Trades, contracts, delists etc etc. He has absolutely no way of ensuring none of those decisions have bad outcomes. So all he can do is exercise good judgement, knowing that over time this will more likely than not lead to good outcomes.

It would be intriguing to know whether something like this would ever actually take place or whether there is some other reason Richmond apparently gave up value in this trade. However, I doubt we will ever know for certain.

 

[KrispyKreme]

we arent getting that unless we have pick 2

Then we get pick 2

 

[Stan Judkins]

i personally don't see a need to trade for 2 or 3 considering the supposed top 6-7 players (we'd have 2 picks) and then it evens out past that for the rest

get our Cotch and Dusty 1st 2 picks and build around them with the other 4-5 picks
we still have next year and the year after, to pick an extra 2 at least A graders before Tassie comes in

 

[Karp3_dm]

As I said in draft thread… get pick 3 and then tell north if FOS/Lalor are not there at 3 we’re taking Tauru.

They either hold or miss Tauru. If I can’t have FOS/Lalor, Tauru is a great replacement.

This is assuming all the rumours around this are true

100% love this
I was literally thinking about this too.

I’d be very happy with Tauru at 3 if north takes FOS or Lalor
Kid looks an absolute freak

 

[Richmond Flats]

what is Blair thinking right now I wonder

 

[KrispyKreme]

i personally don't see a need to trade for 2 or 3 considering the supposed top 6-7 players (we'd have 2 picks) and then it evens out past that for the rest

get our Cotch and Dusty 1st 2 picks and build around them with the other 4-5 picks
we still have next year and the year after, to pick an extra 2 at least A graders before Tassie comes in

You get the two players with the highest ceiling in the draft if you go 1&2 this is why clubs are scrambling to pick them!

 

[4tune8]

As I said in draft thread… get pick 3 and then tell north if FOS/Lalor are not there at 3 we’re taking Tauru.

They either hold or miss Tauru. If I can’t have FOS/Lalor, Tauru is a great replacement.

This is assuming all the rumours around this are true

The Dees might hold 2

 

[4tune8]

Enough of the selfies mother****er

 

[sanaya]

good thing is there's only 3 days left until trade period is over, which means we only gotta wait 2 more days for any trading to get done




and then another 30 days of posts about trading for pick 2 until draft


can't wait


at least we've moved beyond the FOS vs Jagga arc of the story

 

[Blinger]

If we manage to snare pick 2 or 3 as well. I think we can't lose with FOS, Lalor & Jagga there. To pick up two of these will get our rebuild off to a great start, any other players we pick up for the remainder of the draft will be the cream on top.

 

[tigs2010]

The Dees might hold 2

North won't give it to them if we have 3 and taking Tauru though.

 

[4tune8]

North won't give it to them if we have 3 and taking Tauru though.

Aaah, = me being dumb

 

[tigs2010]

Aaah, = me being dumb

It's alright. No one really expected Calcium Man to come up with a good idea.

 

[richoatthedisco]

As I said in draft thread… get pick 3 and then tell north if FOS/Lalor are not there at 3 we’re taking Tauru.

They either hold or miss Tauru. If I can’t have FOS/Lalor, Tauru is a great replacement.

This is assuming all the rumours around this are true

i personally don't see a need to trade for 2 or 3 considering the supposed top 6-7 players (we'd have 2 picks) and then it evens out past that for the rest

get our Cotch and Dusty 1st 2 picks and build around them with the other 4-5 picks
we still have next year and the year after, to pick an extra 2 at least A graders before Tassie comes in

You second paragraph contradicts your first.

There's not a top 6-7. There's a top 2 (not counting Ashcroft and Lombard), then there's a second group. Pick 3 is not worth much more than pick 7 in this draft - unless we can use it the way Calcium suggests.

 

[Phar Ace]

Melbourne would be crazy to trade #5 + #9 for pick #2

But we know.........they don't

 

[Jim Irwins Heart]

100% love this
I was literally thinking about this too.

I’d be very happy with Tauru at 3 if north takes FOS or Lalor
Kid looks an absolute freak

Yep forget Cotchin and Edwards (FOS and Smith), Martin and Rance (Lalor and Tauru) is the way to go if North decides for the nuclear option.

 

[Cleansweep17]

North won't give it to them if we have 3 and taking Tauru though.

Oooh savage. I like.

I wonder if they actually do stuff like this.

 

[tigs2010]

Oooh savage. I like.

I wonder if they actually do stuff like this.

Of course they do. Melbourne are about to bluff Bombers out of pick 9

 

[Tigerbob]

North won't give it to them if we have 3 and taking Tauru though.

Yeah start to play mind games.

Hey North you trade with Melbourne we are going for Pick 3 and taking Tauru bro.

 

[tigs2010]

Yeah start to play mind games.

Hey North you trade with Melbourne we are going for Pick 3 and taking Tauru bro.

Actually wouldn't mind Tauru

 

[Tigerbob]

Actually wouldn't mind Tauru

Me either.

 

[Rubber Hips]

pies should get soldo

would be their youngest player

McCrap banging on about how he reckons the draft is overrated….prefers ready made players…um like….Lockie Schmaltz

 

[Karp3_dm]

Yep forget Cotchin and Edwards (FOS and Smith), Martin and Rance (Lalor and Tauru) is the way to go if North decides for the nuclear option.

Either way we laughing
But god I want FOS and Lalor