Prediction Walking the tightrope - The Run Home

[RUNVS]

Round 13 vs Richmond (MCG)
Round 14 vs Essendon (SCG)
Round 15 vs Melbourne (MCG)
Round 16 vs Gold Coast (SCG)
Round 17 vs GWS (Spotless)
Round 18 vs St Kilda (SCG)
Round 19 vs Hawthorn (MCG)
Round 20 vs Geelong (Simonds)
Round 21 vs Fremantle (SCG)
Round 22 vs Adelaide (AO)
Round 23 vs Carlton (SCG)

We are going to end Round 12 essentially 2 games outside the 8 (or 8 points) so that means we need to win 2 more games in the backhalf of the season than Bulldogs, West Coast, Fremantle and Melbourne.

It isn't an easy run though as we have to play the current top 4 at least once (GWS, Adelaide, Geelong and Richmond) and we also have to play Fremantle who are as we speak in the top 8. So we need to play 5 of the top 8 in the back half of the season.

We are on 4 wins at the moment, and we need a minimum of 12 wins to make the finals, preferably 13 wins to guarantee it. That means in the final 11 games we need to win at least 8 of them, preferably 9. So given the preferable scenario, that means we can only drop 2 games for the rest of the year.

To me we can't lose the next month. We need to beat Richmond, Essendon, Melbourne, Gold Coast. Lose one of them and the maths just get too hard.

To be honest I am expecting us to lose against GWS at Spotless, so that will be one of our 2 loses right there. That means we will have to go from rounds 18 to 23 only losing 1 game in total. St Kilda and Hawthorn are must wins, as is Fremantle and Carlton. The tough 2 games in this group of gams is Geelong at Simonds and Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval. We can only drop 1 of those games if we want to make the 8.

So my question is, do you think we can do it?

 

[RW]

I think 12-13 wins is achievable but I can't bring myself to look past next week after our crap start to the year.

 

[GotTheGoodes]

Of course we can do it. If any club could it's us.

We have a habit of falling to sides we should beat & beating sides we shouldn't... So just assume we can't win another game for the year & watch us go on some kind of amazing unbelieveable undefeated streak....

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

It's already been a seriously weird year in footy so why not?

 

[The Swans Blog]

I think 12-13 wins is achievable but I can't bring myself to look past next week after our crap start to the year.

Pretty much it really. If we navigate the Tigers, we'll win the next three, have won 8 of the last 9 and be on a tidy 5 game win streak. It puts us in a great position to take on GWS.

If we lose, we can still recover against the next three, but it's do or die against the Giants.

 

[SilentHunter_]

One week at a time will do me.

 

[RUNVS]

One week at a time will do me.

D-Day would have never happened with that kind of mentality

 

[Voice of the G]

Losing to Hawthorn might come back to hurt us but while there is hope lets not give up yet.Injuries hurt us earlier in the season but the big positive out of that was the chance to play some very promising young players on our list who are our future.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Its a really tough ask thats why nobody has made the finals from being 0-6, should by some miracle we do make the 8 i think they wont be anything left in the tank.

Round 13 vs Richmond (MCG) 50/50
Round 14 vs Essendon (SCG) Win
Round 15 vs Melbourne (MCG) Win
Round 16 vs Gold Coast (SCG) Win
Round 17 vs GWS (Spotless) Loss
Round 18 vs St Kilda (SCG) Win
Round 19 vs Hawthorn (MCG) 50/50
Round 20 vs Geelong (Simonds) 60/40 our way
Round 21 vs Fremantle (SCG) 50/50
Round 22 vs Adelaide (AO) Loss
Round 23 vs Carlton (SCG) Win

 

[Angry Red Bull]

I think we can do it and will do it. We must, however, have a good run with injuries.

 

[TripleB]

We will start the bookies favourites in all bar the GWS, Geelong and Adelaide games...

 

[The King!]

no

 

[GotTheGoodes]

no

yes

 

[sataris]

no

yes

 

[Punts]

Can't see it

 

[Dan87]

See it

 

[scaryness]

believe it

 

[RW]

Talk about a bipolar board.

 

[SwansProudly]

First, let's beat Richmond at our 2nd home ground

 

[msb77]

Get over Richmond and I'd be more positive about the possibility. I just think we are too far back though to make it. Not the end of the world if we miss, I think we will roar back in 2018.

 

[mtooler]

Nah

 

[Ticky009]

Losing to Hawthorn might come back to hurt us but while there is hope lets not give up yet.Injuries hurt us earlier in the season but the big positive out of that was the chance to play some very promising young players on our list who are our future.

No might about it. Did. And that's just speaking about our board after the game

 

[caesar88]

No point even thinking about it really. The last time we got our mojo back we put in our worst performance of the year against Hawthorn.

See how we're tracking around rounds 16-18

 

[V9x18]

Our team is too young and has been way too inconsistent this year for me to expect an almost perfect second half of the season.

Still have a little bit of hope though

 

[Swansujelly]

absolutely we can make it. Last night's, and the St Kilda game type effort needed for the rest of the year though. Dream scenario is winning last game and pushing Richmond into ninth.