Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 3

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In some interesting news that doesn't directly effect the war, but there is some rumours about a temporary US - Iran Nuclear deal with the potential of removing sanctions for Iran.

If this does in fact co.e to light, it will be interesting to see how this effects Russia's supply lines.
 

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In some interesting news that doesn't directly effect the war, but there is some rumours about a temporary US - Iran Nuclear deal with the potential of removing sanctions for Iran.

If this does in fact co.e to light, it will be interesting to see how this effects Russia's supply lines.
Vigorous denials all round.

Ukraine have released an audio recording of an intercepted call between Russian with one of them saying a Russian saboteur group blew up the dam and it was worse than planned - as suggested by some earlier posters. One of them expresses sadness about the death of thousands of animals in a nearby Safari park. No details of where, what or who the conversation was between.
 
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Vigorous denials all round.

Ukraine have released an audio recording of an intercepted call between Russian with one of them saying a Russian saboteur group blew up the dam and it was worse than planned - as suggested by some earlier posters. One of them expresses sadness about the death of thousands of animals in a nearby Safari park. No details of where, what or who the conversation was between.
Can you break the dam just enough so that it only submerges the Ukrainian forces on the islands?
I think the Russians have learned, much to their detriment, that this is not possible.
 
Odessa bombed overnight. RF continues to bomb civilians, including attacking humanitarian efforts following their flooding, with more artillery.
View attachment IMG_3137.MP4

~ ~ ~ ~

Have heard from contacts that Russians within Russia are threatened with arrest id they seek to donate to flood-relief efforts, under the guise of "spreading fakes about the military".

~ ~ ~ ~

There's a fuel dump caught fire in Ufa, mid-Russia, next to a rail station. Have been trying to get more info from people I know as one lives half their life in Ufa and another was traveling through there sometime around now by train. No idea yet if it's a passenger or freight rail hub.

~ ~ ~ ~

Seems some Ukrainian rolling forces were brought to a halt by minefields, rather than artillery. Artillery probably destroyed the vehicles after they were abandoned. Arguably no human casualties. RF media states hundreds of billions os Leopards were destroyed, seems it might have been that 1 was destroyed (or at least damaged) and maybe 4 or 5 other vehicles given up. Ukraine is still on radio silence about everything.

~ ~ ~ ~

Dniper level is now lower than can supply the cooling ponds for the Energodar complex however existing stocks and other mitigations allow some more weeks of safe operation until there is a real danger. The likelihood is that a new pumping system can be put together and employed within that time ... if the temporary terrorist custodians approve same.

~ ~ ~ ~

Berdyansk was hit by artillery again. Unsure the exact target, but presumably supplies intended for RU defence, or the lines those supplies would traverse. Note that Ukraine would not need to reach to coastline to split the landbridge, they'd only need to reach and compromise Melitopol, as trying to use the remaining strip of land has no rail functionality, is not easily navigable otherwise, and would a deathrap if Ukrainian forces were established at or close to Melitopol.
 
Context is important. Breaches are the most difficult and usually costliest phase of any armored offensive. What we’re observing near Mala Tokmachka could be one of the most painful battles of this phase of Russia’s 15-month wider war on Russia—for both sides. But especially for the attacking Ukrainians.

If conditions improve for the Ukrainians, they should be able to tow away and repair the Leopard 2 and some of the Bradleys. They’ve already managed to fix up at least one battle-damaged Leopard 2A4, underscoring the fundamental toughness of the German-made tank. That the Leopard 2R escaped is especially good news: Finland produced just six of the breaching vehicles—and gave all of them to the 47th Brigade.

The 33rd and 47th Brigades should double down on their mineclearing efforts, or find some way around the minefields. Inasmuch as Russian attack helicopters were a factor in Thursday’s failed attack, closer air-defense support—perhaps from Gepard mobile guns—also would benefit the Ukrainian brigades. As always, Ukrainian artillery gunners should target Russia’s own big guns.
 
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Odessa bombed overnight. RF continues to bomb civilians, including attacking humanitarian efforts following their flooding, with more artillery.
View attachment 1708670

~ ~ ~ ~

Have heard from contacts that Russians within Russia are threatened with arrest id they seek to donate to flood-relief efforts, under the guise of "spreading fakes about the military".

~ ~ ~ ~

There's a fuel dump caught fire in Ufa, mid-Russia, next to a rail station. Have been trying to get more info from people I know as one lives half their life in Ufa and another was traveling through there sometime around now by train. No idea yet if it's a passenger or freight rail hub.

~ ~ ~ ~

Seems some Ukrainian rolling forces were brought to a halt by minefields, rather than artillery. Artillery probably destroyed the vehicles after they were abandoned. Arguably no human casualties. RF media states hundreds of billions os Leopards were destroyed, seems it might have been that 1 was destroyed (or at least damaged) and maybe 4 or 5 other vehicles given up. Ukraine is still on radio silence about everything.

~ ~ ~ ~

Dniper level is now lower than can supply the cooling ponds for the Energodar complex however existing stocks and other mitigations allow some more weeks of safe operation until there is a real danger. The likelihood is that a new pumping system can be put together and employed within that time ... if the temporary terrorist custodians approve same.

~ ~ ~ ~

Berdyansk was hit by artillery again. Unsure the exact target, but presumably supplies intended for RU defence, or the lines those supplies would traverse. Note that Ukraine would not need to reach to coastline to split the landbridge, they'd only need to reach and compromise Melitopol, as trying to use the remaining strip of land has no rail functionality, is not easily navigable otherwise, and would a deathrap if Ukrainian forces were established at or close to Melitopol.

One of my friends lived in Ufa. It’s more a junction hub than a large civilian centre. More likely an accident although there are a lot of Tatars who were forced to move to that area. Those Tatars were from Crimea and they have more claim to that area than Ukraine does. The Tatars I know would rather not be Russians, so they may return IF Ukraine retakes it. Those same Tatars could have been responsible for the Ufa incident but I doubt it.
 
One of my friends lived in Ufa. It’s more a junction hub than a large civilian centre. More likely an accident although there are a lot of Tatars who were forced to move to that area. Those Tatars were from Crimea and they have more claim to that area than Ukraine does. The Tatars I know would rather not be Russians, so they may return IF Ukraine retakes it. Those same Tatars could have been responsible for the Ufa incident but I doubt it.
I also agree that it's more likely an accident. RF actually have terrible safety procedures and the number of accidents is pretty ... let's say impressive. We just weren't really noticing before the spotlight was on. My thoughts are just that it's on a long supply line from the east to the west - but also probably easy to fix.

Travelling friend got back to me, was already long past Ufa and had no clue of an event.

Yeah Ufa is basically part of Tatarstan, though I guess it's technically more part of Bashkortistan. Interesting what you said about the number of Crimean Tatars there.
 
Can you break the dam just enough so that it only submerges the Ukrainian forces on the islands?
I think the Russians have learned, much to their detriment, that this is not possible.
I have seen claims that they filled up the damn more than usual before the 'event', which may explain the larger floods than the Russians expected.
Context is important. Breaches are the most difficult and usually costliest phase of any armored offensive. What we’re observing near Mala Tokmachka could be one of the most painful battles of this phase of Russia’s 15-month wider war on Russia—for both sides. But especially for the attacking Ukrainians.
There seems to be a degree of hysteria regarding the loss of 'a Leopard' tank. Tankies get excited because it shows the Ukrainians failing and some of the worry warts who support Ukraine seem to get all despondent. It's early days, Ukraine has yet to commit the bulk of it's forces to the battle. There are going to be lots of loses, offensives are difficult. Western gear is no magic bullet, Ukraine is going to have to work hard and smart, which I expect they will but it's going to take time. Folks need to be patient.
 
Last few days - working on surrounding Bakhmut, northern side (Bakhmut can be seen labelled bottom right of video) (recorded from [deepstate.live]) :
View attachment Berkivskogo.mp4
Ok so it's a sober situation from the terrorist viewpoint, as the poorly skilled Russian troops instantly give up more ground just north of Bakhmut, days after the Wagner troops left. Wagner would be a bit pissed to have spent all those resources on a nine month kriechkrieg, only have it immediately donated back to Ukraine. But the arrow depicting the orcs scarpering made me smile.

This "measured retreat" is further shown in the video below (compressed, original is [here]) :
View attachment 57вїбашилапєдіків(compressed).mp4
 

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I think this is the main counter offense now. Previously it was just small units prodding along the front line.

Now it appears they have started using larger and more advanced units and capturing strategic important positions. The Ukrainian forces seem to value highlands rather than settlements like the Russians do.
 
I have seen claims that they filled up the damn more than usual before the 'event', which may explain the larger floods than the Russians expected.

There seems to be a degree of hysteria regarding the loss of 'a Leopard' tank. Tankies get excited because it shows the Ukrainians failing and some of the worry warts who support Ukraine seem to get all despondent. It's early days, Ukraine has yet to commit the bulk of it's forces to the battle. There are going to be lots of loses, offensives are difficult. Western gear is no magic bullet, Ukraine is going to have to work hard and smart, which I expect they will but it's going to take time. Folks need to be patient.
Hopefully Ukraine will learn quickly from this 'fighting reconnaissance stage'.
 
A Ukrainian-eye view of the damage to their line of attack not far from Orikhiv. The caption draws attention to the lack of panic as they deal with being ambushed.
View attachment video_2023-06-10_17-34-13.mp4
Footage of the same battle with the loss of a Bradley infantry fighting vehicle through the eyes of our fighters in the Zaporizhzhia direction.

BMP works against the enemy, covering our troops during evacuation. Even in such a difficult situation, Ukrainian fighters do not panic, they cover each other and help their comrades. Because every life is valuable to us. Every. The Armed Forces are incredible

[TG Post]

Similarly, RF employ the RLF manouvre near to Velika Novosilka. Caption suggests the region has changed from under Russian occupation, to in dispute.
View attachment підаридаютьдрапака (compressed).mp4
A large group of Katsap infantry escapes by fleeing to the west of Storozhovo. The video is dated June 4, when the first assaults in that area began. As of yesterday, there is still a gray area there [TG post]
 
Animals from Kherson region evacuated to Kyiv.
Supporters of ZeMolodizhka Kyiv help animals rescued from Kherson. Rescued dogs from the city flooded as a result of the explosion of the Kakhovskaya HPP were brought to the Kyiv shelter. Here volunteers will be able to provide them with support and assistance.
View attachment WhatsApp Video 2023-06-09 at 09.56.26.mp4
[TG Post]

(with the word 'sobaka' being one I know as meaning "dog" in Russian, I think she is saying: We got this dog, that dog, this dog, that dog ... we got some dogs ...)
 
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