Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 3

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Sorry that wasn't meant to be cryptic, I was reading all of the posts here.

I'll post Anders latest video, not good news , just interesting analysis.


'Maybe they were just drunk' is my favourite line.

What is the military reason for Russia targeting civilian buildings with missiles and drones?
When you're running out of missiles, just use water instead.
 
What is the military reason for Russia targeting civilian buildings with missiles and drones?
When you're running out of missiles, just use water instead.
There was a tweet from a Ukrainian that they targeted the meeting point for saved animals.

They aren't nice human beings at all.
 

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There was a tweet from a Ukrainian that they targeted the meeting point for saved animals.

They aren't nice human beings at all.
No. The Russians also targeted with artillery fire people trying to flee their flooded homes and those that tried to rescue them.
The Russians are also preventing the international organisations like the Red Cross from providing essential aid to these people due to their artillery fire.
It's almost like the Russians had blown up the dam knowing that they could cause incredible damage to the country that they had invaded and had occupied.
 
I'm not that up to date with what's going on but the long game seems to just be Russia will keep hammering away until they get what they want like some unstoppable moron.



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They will most certainly try.

But it's becoming clear they aren't unstoppable
 
Russian posts suggest Ukraine may be committing more troops in the Zaporizhzhia Region, looks like they have decided to go down the middle.



Added - President Z says it's on.


That bloke, Mick Ryan has some good tweets about what he calls the Ukrainian campagin.

 
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I have seen claims that they filled up the damn more than usual before the 'event', which may explain the larger floods than the Russians expected.

There seems to be a degree of hysteria regarding the loss of 'a Leopard' tank. Tankies get excited because it shows the Ukrainians failing and some of the worry warts who support Ukraine seem to get all despondent. It's early days, Ukraine has yet to commit the bulk of it's forces to the battle. There are going to be lots of loses, offensives are difficult. Western gear is no magic bullet, Ukraine is going to have to work hard and smart, which I expect they will but it's going to take time. Folks need to be patient.
If after 4 days of offensive UAF actions this is the best the orcs can produce, one video of a Leopard tank loss that was not even involved in combat but was behind the lines, then l would say thats actually a good sign.

You know the terrorists would be posting everything they could to show Ukraine failing. The fact there is slim pickings out there says a lot.
 
Ukrainians are winning the propaganda war.
Russia taking ground in the real war..
Putin has got rid of every undesirable off Russian streets and only has real troops left.
Ah, the good old “Russia hasn’t even started fighting yet” excuse.

I suspect next they will pull out some high tech equipment out of their a$$es?

A bit like where it seems you got your analysis from….
 

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If after 4 days of offensive UAF actions this is the best the orcs can produce, one video of a Leopard tank loss that was not even involved in combat but was behind the lines, then l would say thats actually a good sign.

You know the terrorists would be posting everything they could to show Ukraine failing. The fact there is slim pickings out there says a lot.
Yeah especially since Ukraine is radio silent right now. All were seeing I what the Russians are showing, so their lack of content hopefully augers well.
 
The only times I heard it before where in the other big Ukrainian pushes, you know, when they took big chunks of territory.

Strangely, didn't hear it when they were consolidating and holding ground.

So yes, have heard it before, and if it goes like it did then, Ukraine is going to take a big chunk of land.

Then in about 9 months time, Russia will take back a town and the Vatniks will flood the interwebs proclaiming inevitable Russian victory.

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I'm wondering why they are pushing in Bahkmut. Seems the real key is the southern front right now.

Are they doing that to tie the Russians up in that region? Or is there some strategic advantage to that city beyond a political win for Russia?
I think you have answered your own question. Ties up Russians, big political win when it's taken back, then it does offer a route further east.

Alleged cyberattack on the Russian banking system has brought it down.



Some of the comments suggest they managed to fry some componentry. It's a multi domain offensive.
 
Because.Ive.Heard.this.before

bruh

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Yeah, the offensive in Kherson was exactly the same.

1. Ukraine probes and withdraws. Obviously if you "probe" a massive army like Russia, especially seeing Kherson was and the Southern front is full of professional troops, there will be losses.

2. Ukraine maintain discipline with radio silence. This makes their operation more successful, but Ruscist propagandists use this opportunity to flood the airways with any images they can about some of the Ukrainian losses. If you notice, they continually use the same footage over and over again and often from different angles.

3. Ukraine's probing attacks are partly to find weaknesses, but also to draw Russian reserves towards the front. This process is paired with a relentless campaign of bombing command and logistics.

4. Points 1 and 3 mean that Russia can no longer maintain supplies to increasingly worn-out front lines so start conditioning their population with talk about "making a goodwill gesture". Ukraine responds with "We can't trust the Russians to retreat without a trap".

5. We see footage of Russians retreating en masse and a few hours latter there is footage of old women hugging Ukrainian soldiers with tears of joy and relief in their eyes.

6. Russia bombs civilians, then begins a campaign centred around excessive artillery fire and meat waves of Wagnerites and mobilised soldiers.


My expectation at this stage of the war is for Ukraine to take Tokmak and potentially stay there. That ruins the logistics in the south for Russia. From there they can take stock and take fields to the southeast of it so Kerch Bridge is in range. They will be able to attack Russians along the Dnipro from behind while they cross the Dnipro after the flood subsides. Crimea will be disconnected from Donetsk and they can get to work destroying the Kerch bridge.

Then for the rest of summer, they can hold that and maintain its resources, allowing Russia to withdraw from Melitopol.

The funding in the pipeline gives them more tanks, F-16s, and increased air defence. On top of that, all NATO countries are increasing ammunition production so by the end of the year they could have more artillery than Russia at the front. Artillery and fighter jets are Russia's only advantages. This time also allows them to continue baiting Russia into depleting themselves and continue the training of their forces for tanks, fighter jets and combined arms warfare. This can be done in conjunction of rotating units through the front so they are battle-hardened.

They will be able to mop up large areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts and leave Russia with a very tough decision next year. A fully trained and armed combined arms military will be able to attack Crimea which has no bridge to Russia and the Donestk. Do they continue or do they sue for peace?

I was very critical of the US for not arming Ukraine faster because I believe that using models that they are currently warehousing due to being superseded thanks to their bloated military budget would actually save them money due to not having to warehouse them. Many people were critical of Germany's reticence to provide Leopard tanks etc.

However, I see what they are doing now. Perun gave a great presentation all about how to escalate without generating a moment where your adversary will point to and say "oh my god you've gone too far" ... It is called boiling the frog.

 
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