Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Zidane98]

Still dropping
View attachment 2177109

112 rubles to the USD. Bloody hell. If that graph continues on its trajectory who knows what could happen in Russia right now.


The obvious solution for Putin to protect the economy and Russia from collapse is a complete withdrawal from Ukraine, get itself back trading with the west again.

It really is incredible that Putin has been able to undermine Russia as a functioning state to this point.

 

[Saint]

112 rubles to the USD. Bloody hell. If that graph continues on its trajectory who knows what could happen in Russia right now.


The obvious solution for Putin to protect the economy and Russia from collapse is a complete withdrawal from Ukraine, get itself back trading with the west again.

It really is incredible that Putin has been able to undermine Russia as a functioning state to this point.

You could see that Russia was trying to prop up the Ruble at the 100 mark, but once they ran out of money and it crashed through, it will probably never stop. The Chinese will be buying Russia soon enough.

 

[Saint]

Not a word!

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

Are your contacts in Moscow? The Muscovites always get looked after first, then it filters out to the regions when it's too late.

Wheelbarrows of Rubles in line for bread again.

 

[Zidane98]

The Russian economy held up longer than expected, but it appears to be in serious trouble now.

The Ruble is now trading at 109 to the US dollar.

It went past 100 to the US dollar about a year ago but went back to around 80 to tbe US dollar after Putin demanded for it to improve. I'm no economist but from my understanding they did this by buying their own currancy and raising interest rates.

I think the interest rate was 7.5% when the Ruble was over 100 last year. The interest rate is now 21%.

There doesn't appear to be any other levers Putin can pull to stabilize the Ruble.

Putin has been using gold reserves to purchase military equipment. Russia has one of the largest gold reserves in the world. He could pull the lever of exhausting Russia's gold reserves to fund his fascist invasion and / or prop up the ruble but that's a disastrous result for the people of Russia.

Putin has also been pilfering Russia's national wealth fund. Here's the monthly report on Russia's national wealth fund:



Just in the last month alone Putin has wasted $6 billion USD of Russia's national wealth fund. As you can see, Russia's wealth fund was at one stage up to $210 billion USD which was just before COVID. At the current rate of $6 billion monthly decline in value Putin would run the national wealth fund dry 21 months from today. Not sure even he could get away with it getting to that point though as that fund is literally the future of Russia's people and there surely would be another uprising as the people would simply have nothing to lose.

With COVID and now his war Putin has stripped $80 billion USD off Russia's national wealth fund. Natural resources income has been smashed. Oil prices are down and Urals oil trades regularly $10 USD / bl below world prices due to price caps, sanctions and now Putin's dodgy dark tanker fleet being shut down.



So as you can see there are a few levers left to pull but they may be a step too far, even for Putin. Will be interesting to see if Putin decides to pull the trigger and basically prop up the ruble with more of Russia's wealth fund. Not a wise move as this will cause inflation to spike severely. I reckon he would attempt to print more money before he tries that.

 

[Couch Coach]

You could see that Russia was trying to prop up the Ruble at the 100 mark, but once they ran out of money and it crashed through, it will probably never stop. The Chinese will be buying Russia soon enough.

 

[Zidane98]

View attachment 2177135

Lots of it is tied to the Saudis. Putin's basically begging MBS to cut oil production. Unfortunately for Putin Saudi's desire to be a major player with the west these days is much greater than his relationship with the Saudis. Putin can't threaten them either as MBS would simply ramp up oil production making Urals oil sellable only at a huge discount.

The other part of it is China's trading relation with the west which is worth more to China than what BRICS offers them. They're happy to play both sides as they can capitalise on cheap resources from other BRICS members (Iran/Russia for oil / gas).

 

[Zidane98]

I'm sure the Japanese are really worried about this threat. Probably went straight to junk mail.

 

[Zidane98]

Cyprus looking to join NATO




This is significant. Last time I was there Russian flags were everywhere. Cyprus had decided to accept a bailout from the Russians instead of the EU.

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Zidane98]

Ha ha. Vlad can't catch a break:

 

[Zidane98]

It's happened




They've had to suspend foreign currency trading to stop a complete collapse.


Comrade barreness - I genuinely hope you were able to withdraw your rubles to exchange for Chinese Yuan/USD/Euros before the suspension of trading.

 

[Couch Coach]

Cyprus looking to join NATO




This is significant. Last time I was there Russian flags were everywhere. Cyprus had decided to accept a bailout from the Russians instead of the EU.

Cyprus: Hub for Russian Influence, Money Laundering, and Sanctions Evasion

Executive Summary: Cyprus has been deeply influenced by Russian interests over the past 30 years, becoming a hub for Russian oligarchs and the country’s financial sector to launder money and avoid Western sanctions. While the European Union has imposed restrictions on Cyprus, the island’s...

jamestown.org

"Cyprus’s entanglement with Russian money laundering, sanctions evasion, and illicit financial flows represents a growing concern for the West. While the European Union has imposed restrictions on Cyprus, the island’s division has allowed the north to become a grey zone for financial activity. As Russian influence continues to dominate the island’s economy, Cyprus has become a vital point in the broader geopolitical struggle between Russia and the West."

"Addressing this issue requires a multifaceted approach that targets the financial institutions facilitating these activities and the political structures enabling them. Without significant reforms and greater coordination between the European Union and Cypriot government, Cyprus will likely remain a critical nexus for illicit finance and Russian influence."

Cyprus focuses on strategic alignment with NATO | eKathimerini.com

Cyprus is focused on enhancing its defense capabilities through strategic partnerships with the US and France, and by aligning with NATO standards, government spokesperson Konstantinos Letymbiotis said Tuesday.

www.ekathimerini.com

 

[Zidane98]

Cyprus: Hub for Russian Influence, Money Laundering, and Sanctions Evasion

Executive Summary: Cyprus has been deeply influenced by Russian interests over the past 30 years, becoming a hub for Russian oligarchs and the country’s financial sector to launder money and avoid Western sanctions. While the European Union has imposed restrictions on Cyprus, the island’s...

jamestown.org

"Cyprus’s entanglement with Russian money laundering, sanctions evasion, and illicit financial flows represents a growing concern for the West. While the European Union has imposed restrictions on Cyprus, the island’s division has allowed the north to become a grey zone for financial activity. As Russian influence continues to dominate the island’s economy, Cyprus has become a vital point in the broader geopolitical struggle between Russia and the West."

"Addressing this issue requires a multifaceted approach that targets the financial institutions facilitating these activities and the political structures enabling them. Without significant reforms and greater coordination between the European Union and Cypriot government, Cyprus will likely remain a critical nexus for illicit finance and Russian influence."

Cyprus focuses on strategic alignment with NATO | eKathimerini.com

Cyprus is focused on enhancing its defense capabilities through strategic partnerships with the US and France, and by aligning with NATO standards, government spokesperson Konstantinos Letymbiotis said Tuesday.

www.ekathimerini.com

Really is incredible how many states Putin has convinced to join NATO. For someone that is supposedly against the alliance he is the greatest NATO salesmen of all time in reality.

 

[Zidane98]

Trending on X

 

[Satan]

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the deadly 16,000mph Satan 2 to be battle-ready, sparking fears of a major escalation in the war.

 

[Zidane98]

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the deadly 16,000mph Satan 2 to be battle-ready, sparking fears of a major escalation in the war.

Can he afford to launch one?

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Zidane98]

A new red line for Putin?

 

[Frank Grimes]

112 rubles to the USD. Bloody hell. If that graph continues on its trajectory who knows what could happen in Russia right now.


The obvious solution for Putin to protect the economy and Russia from collapse is a complete withdrawal from Ukraine, get itself back trading with the west again.

It really is incredible that Putin has been able to undermine Russia as a functioning state to this point.

Even if the war ends now and the sanctions are lifted I don't think Western companies will be rushing to deal with Russia after losing so much money and assets when Russia seized billions of Western assets when they tried to leave Russia due to the war and sanctions.

There will be a massive risk for them to do so, especially that any peace deal is just likely and opportunity for Putin to regroup and try again in a few years.

 

[Anzacpaul]

The first four minutes are about this and RT admitting to fake newscasters for their fake news.

His hands literally move in the first 1/2 second. Plus you see his pinky jerk and his hands "wobble" multiple times.

 

[Chadwiko]

View attachment 2177142

lol that one gave me a good chuckle.

 

[Zidane98]

Even if the war ends now and the sanctions are lifted I don't think Western companies will be rushing to deal with Russia after losing so much money and assets when Russia seized billions of Western assets when they tried to leave Russia due to the war and sanctions.

There will be a massive risk for them to do so, especially that any peace deal is just likely and opportunity for Putin to regroup and try again in a few years.

Yep, the damage is done. Predatory Chinese investors will have a field day investing in Russia. It'll be the only reliable foreign investment available.

 

[Zidane98]

Ha ha

 

[Zidane98]

There's a subliminal threat to Kazakhstan in this press release - we will not let China become the dominant power in Central Asia without a fight.

 

[Saint]

It's happened




They've had to suspend foreign currency trading to stop a complete collapse.


Comrade barreness - I genuinely hope you were able to withdraw your rubles to exchange for Chinese Yuan/USD/Euros before the suspension of trading.

Well RT isn't reporting it, so it's probably true.

Moscow Times is.

Pravda isn't.