Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[wannabejack]

"Because they know they were never going to use them." [nuclear weapons]

 

[Aussie in exile]

Why don't you volunteer Zidane?
International bigfooty legion, you're below the average age of Ukrainian soldiers I believe, could bring a youthful exuberance to the squad

I asked you the same question about joining the Russian forces and remind me of your reply.

 

[Cap]

"Because they know they were never going to use them." [nuclear weapons]

The most interesting part about the invasion of Kursk is the lack of rape, torture, beheadings, looting ( by Ukrainians), destruction of hospitals and schools.

I've been reliably told those are all normal parts of modern wars

 

[Visions]

Probably more like up the ante on the energy infrastructure, these will result in thousands of excess civilian deaths so same result really

Ukraine and Russia were set to send delegations to Doha this month to negotiate a landmark agreement halting strikes on energy and power infrastructure on both sides

....were derailed by Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region last week

......reducing Moscow’s oil refining by an estimated 15 percent

Because of Russian airstrikes, Ukraine has lost around nine gigawatts of the 18 gigawatts needed for peak consumption this winter — far too much to recover in a short period of time. Officials say electricity could be limited to five to seven hours a day — or less — during the frigid months.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/17/kursk-ukraine-russia-energy-ceasefire/

Ukraine's attacks on Russian oilfields must be really screwing Russia up big time as there is no way that Russia would even contemplate an agreement to halt strikes on energy infrastructure. They wouldn't be doing it out of the goodness of their hearts.

Not like they would adhere to any agreement anyway. Just like their BS propaganda on looking at negotiations to end the war. Every word below is true even if vatniks don't want to accept it.

 

[Visions]

Yep, reserves are getting a call I'd say

Not necessarily, there was an initial mobilisation in 2022, from then on volunteers(with a healthy sign on bonus)

Technically draftees can only be put on Russian soil so I'd imagine a lot of them would be involved in whatever counter offensive takes place

The only reserves Putin has is the conscripts. No one else. So unless he pulls from other areas, newly fresh faced guys with very limited training will continue to be captured or killed. Putin obviously doesn't give a shit, but the mothers do.

But as Russia is descending into a Nazi state with Putin having a Goebbels like comparable ban on media, the mothers will find it hard to reach an audience.

 

[Visions]

"Russia has stopped Ukraine offensive", part 74.

Ukraine continuing to withdraw westwards....



Copium Russian media and parliament members saying nothing to see here but that people should stop talking about the UAF Kursk offensive for some reason. Also that Germany and Britain should be wiped off the map with an attack by Russia because not only won't there be a military response by NATO (nor anyone else) but Europe would come crawling to Russia instead. The Duma member has been saying this for 2 years but funnily enough for some unknown reason despite this belief haven't acted upon this and let hundreads of thousands of their population die instead.....



The third and final bridge has allegedly been destroyed. Should be some trophies left behind by Russia. There has already been footage of modern T-90 tanks being captured by the UAF.

If Russia are dumb enough (which wthout a shadow of a doubt they are) to leave soldiers behind to fight with nothing but rifles, then its going to be a cluster****.

 

[Visions]

From [SOTA TG] (the video is not repeated there, the post is safe to view if fearing distressing imagery)

Z-channel Troika has distributed a video showing a head impaled on a stake: it is claimed that this is a killed Ukrainian soldier.

The video is marked with the logo of the 155th separate guards marine brigade of the Pacific Fleet and is accompanied by words about revenge for the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into the Kursk region – “our holy land.”

Earlier, Ukrainian intelligence claimed that soldiers from the 155th Brigade were involved in the massacre in Bucha.

Edit: The callsign of the 155th member who gave the order for beheading is claimed to be "Pushkar".

I think you will find after all is said and done with this war, that members of the 155th will be on a hit list which the Ukrainian SBU will enact and try and take out every last member no matter where they are hiding.

 

[Mobbs]

Claims that the third bridge is down, but no images or evidence clear yet.

 

[jatz14]

They're a vassal state? Why wouldn't you use them, strengthens the alliance and adds to your resources

Why did the US need support from us in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan........

They didn't need assistance from us.

We didn't follow them into Vietnam, we urged them on. We were keener on them getting involved in Vietnam than they were.

Part of a deliberate policy decision to try to entrap the US into keeping heavily involved in the indo/pacific, and preventing them focussing excessively (in our eyes of course), on Europe.

The notion that subservient Australia got dragged into conflicts at the behest of its overlord is a historical nonsense.

Our contribution was negligible, the amount of support we required from the US logistically meant our presence was a 2 edged sword for them. The political contribution in letting them sell it as a joint effort, and not just the US was marginal, as outside of Australia, most people don't know we were there. And the impracticality of us not joining in was almost entirely down to how much cheering on we had done to get the war started in the first place.

It's a similar story for all the other conflicts we joined.

It's simple, if unedifying for Australia's sense of nationalism.

Australia has decided that if the international order and international trade, and access to the seas, are to be controlled, then it's in our interests that it be by the US.

We do whatever we can to make the US do this, and whatever we can to make them see us as allies who's interests, it's in their interest, to protect.

We can refuse to do what the US wants, anytime we like, and have done so, because it isn't a function of US policy that we do what they want, it's a function of Australian policy.

At a simpler level, US forces never used, asked for, or received, Australian equipment or supplies, we used theirs.

Russia is asking of Belorussia, the materials needed to fight a war. The US has never needed that from us.

I know you don't want this to mean that Russia is stretched beyond its capacity to keep its own armies supplied with the materiel required to wage war, but that is what it means.



On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[jatz14]

They don't have to claim it as Ukrainian territory. Just declare it the independent republic of Kursk and start charging Russian gas companies for all the gas which passes through their pipelines.

They should be tearing the place up, scorched-earth style. It's the only strategic advantage militarily to what they've done. Otherwise they're just dancing around Russia which everyone knows they'll abandon eventually. Unless they start blowing important infrastructure up, there's no reason for the Russians to hurry in forcing them out.

It's not like the Russian Govt cares about displaced (or dead) civilians

Putins entire narrative is that Russia is a major player, the Russian military is a world power.

These things cannot be true, and are not seen to be true, while Ukraine can take and hold Russian territory.

So your right, strategically, they can just isolate the area, and ignore it, fight on in more important places.

Not sure they can do that politically though.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Zidane98]

Probably more like up the ante on the energy infrastructure, these will result in thousands of excess civilian deaths so same result really

Ukraine and Russia were set to send delegations to Doha this month to negotiate a landmark agreement halting strikes on energy and power infrastructure on both sides

....were derailed by Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region last week

......reducing Moscow’s oil refining by an estimated 15 percent

Because of Russian airstrikes, Ukraine has lost around nine gigawatts of the 18 gigawatts needed for peak consumption this winter — far too much to recover in a short period of time. Officials say electricity could be limited to five to seven hours a day — or less — during the frigid months.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/17/kursk-ukraine-russia-energy-ceasefire/

The only negotiation is to end the war on Ukraine's terms.



This will continue perpetually as long as Vlad continues his fruitless invasion.

Considering the fact that Russia is now an international pariah state banned from multiple sporting & political associations plus increased territory loss coupled with a crippled oil refining industry the only logical option is for Vlad to call it quits otherwise Russia could collapse as a functioning state.

 

[CD Xbow]

Interesting article by 'that bloke', Mick Ryan, looking at the Kursk Incursion, Russia's options and can Ukraine fight two ground campaigns concurrently.

The Kursk Offensive Dilemma

Can Ukraine and Russia both continue executing two major ground campaigns?

mickryan.substack.com

 

[Mobbs]

Belarussian "Tur" group is a unit of the Ukrainian forces, seen hurtling down the track on their steel springs in the Kursk region.
View attachment IMG_6632.MP4

 

[Visions]

The only negotiation is to end the war on Ukraine's terms.



This will continue perpetually as long as Vlad continues his fruitless invasion.

Considering the fact that Russia is now an international pariah state banned from multiple sporting & political associations plus increased territory loss coupled with a crippled oil refining industry the only logical option is for Vlad to call it quits otherwise Russia could collapse as a functioning state.

This fire has been burning for a few days now as it makes its way through the depot. There are approximately 70 tanks in total in the depot and about 10 of them have burnt so far.

18 firefighters have been injured trying to fight it. Officials have said they will let it burn out.

 

[Visions]

Putins entire narrative is that Russia is a major player, the Russian military is a world power.

These things cannot be true, and are not seen to be true, while Ukraine can take and hold Russian territory.

So your right, strategically, they can just isolate the area, and ignore it, fight on in more important places.

Not sure they can do that politically though.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Putin is doing his best to ignore it.

There was some meeting he had about the Kursk crisis a few days after the UAF invasion. Since then for the last week and a bit he hasn’t commented on it in any way. Sticking his fingers in his ears hoping it will go away.

Supposed strong leader of the motherland defending his people and borders is nothing more than a weak coward who doesn’t give a shit.

I can’t wait for the photo op of Zelensky visiting the troops in Kursk to come out (you know its bound to happen). That will really get the vatniks going!

 

[Zidane98]

So I guess you take everything back

Tale what back exactly? I've always maintained that Ukraine doesn't have the resources to defeat Russia completely in a full scale war. Victory was always going to be achieved when the cost to Russia of its invasion simply becomes too much to wear.

Lol

lmao, the 'world court'

Yes the concept of a worldwide justice system is probably foreign to where you live tovarisch.

If only, now Russia has to strike back to save face

Or Putin does what is in the interests of Russian sovereignty, calls it quits on his invasion, comes to the negotiating table.

 

[Mofra]

*Mud roads when winter hits

 

[Zidane98]

Didn't see this coming. Lukashenko claiming Ukraine being "denazified" means that he is effectively telling Putin to withdraw from the war.

 

[Ballarat Bob]

Didn't see this coming. Lukashenko claiming Ukraine being "denazified" means that he is effectively telling Putin to withdraw from the war.

He's crapping himself , if the Russian army is that stretched they can't come and prop up his regime if there is another uprising. And he has already run down his armed forces by donating most of the Belarusian army's equipment to Putin already.

 

[Zidane98]

Chechnya uprising, Belarus uprising & Japan returning. Kuril islands back to its rule would make things pretty interesting for Vlad.

 

[Zidane98]

This also proves that Lukashenko is indispensable to Putin. This is twice he has undermined Putin on the Ukraine war. Firstly by saying Putin should end the war and come to the negotiating table. Secondly by declaring there are no Nazis in Ukraine (even though that's an impossible thing to declare, there are Nazis in every major country in the world including his own).


This is akin to saying there is no reason for Putin to continue his war against Ukraine.


3 times if you account for Lukashenko taking in rebel Wagner soldiers who were marching on Moscow.


Looks like Lukashenko can say pretty much what he wants without having to fear 3rd story windows as whoever replaces him will not be Putin's bitch like Lukashenko is.

 

[wannabejack]

Didn't see this coming. Lukashenko claiming Ukraine being "denazified" means that he is effectively telling Putin to withdraw from the war.

Partly, Lukashenko is clearly nervous that the Kursk incursion will lead to a major escalation by Russia, up to and possibly including a full-scale war with Nato. This would put his tiny country of ten million directly in the firing line (Soviet Belarus lost more people, proportionately, than any other region during the second world war). He is also nervous that talk of Russia opening a ‘northern front’ against Ukraine could cause the flighting to spill over into Belarus.

From another article
Lukashenko's stance on the need for talks between Kyiv and Moscow has already been echoed by Russian and Belarusian media on Thursday.
Head of the Center for Countering Disinformation under the National Security and Defense Council, Andriy Kovalenko, remarked that such statements may indicate Putin's request to initiate talks..
"After all, in Lukashenko's lengthy speech, the idea is embedded that 'the goal has already been achieved,'" noted Kovalenko.

 

[Chief]

If only, now Russia has to strike back to save face

The **** do you think they are doing already?

 

[CD Xbow]

There is some evidence the intensity of the fighting in southern Ukraine has decreased, President Z must be hoping for this.

https://m.censor.net/en/news/3505566/osgt_tavria_on_the_situation_in_the_south_of_ukraine

"Compared to last week, the intensity of hostilities is decreasing. If we talk about Zaporizhzhia region, i.e. Orikhivske and Huliaipillia directions, it has been the third day of zero combat engagements. As for the Russians‘ ground assaults, no enemy offensive attempts were recorded today from the beginning of the day until 4 p.m.," said Lykhoviy.

Combat activity is taking place only on the left bank of the Dnieper River, where Ukrainian troops continue to hold footholds, in particular, near the village of Krynky.

"There are small attempts to attack with infantry units up to a squad size without armoured vehicles. However, the enemy is not successful, no losses of positions have been reported," said the spokesman.

 

[wannabejack]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/czechs-will-buy-ammunition-ukraine-with-income-frozen-russian-assets-2024-08-20/

"Thanks to proceeds from frozen Russian finances, released by the European Union, we will be able to supply several hundreds of thousands of large-calibre ammunition rounds to Ukraine," minister Jana Cernochova said.

The ministry did not give further details but said deliveries would be made "in the coming months", and thus would soon have an impact on the battlefield.