Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Zidane98]

lol

 

[Zidane98]

86% success rate from Ukraine, pretty impressive.


This attack would have cost Russia hundreds of millions of dollars.


Comrade barreness - surely you would agree this money would be better spent on providing indoor toilets for citizens of Russia ?

 

[Zidane98]

Russian oil refinery genocide continues unabated.


How did Ukraine manage to take out this one 2500km from the border?

 

[Zidane98]

Russian suicide drone lands inside NATO territory.

 

[wannabejack]

Three year war? Thought it was a three day Special Military Operation?

They're now focusing on the "tortoise strategy".

 

[Visions]

So what's your prediction?

My prediction? This time next year the 3 day special military operation will still be ongoing, and you will be a parrot still echoing your “Ukraine is finished in the next 6 months” rhetoric.

 

[Visions]

86% success rate from Ukraine, pretty impressive.


This attack would have cost Russia hundreds of millions of dollars.


Comrade barreness - surely you would agree this money would be better spent on providing indoor toilets for citizens of Russia ?

$1.2 billion wasted. Or the equivalent that has been embezzeled by one general before the war.

Russian oil refinery genocide continues unabated.


How did Ukraine manage to take out this one 2500km from the border?

That the biggest oil refinery in Russia.

Talking about refineries on fire, the eternal flame in Rostov keeps on keeping on.

 

[CD Xbow]

$1.2 billion wasted. Or the equivalent that has been embezzeled by one general before the war....

I don't think that's the real cost to the Russians, probably a quarter or a third of that really. They use the rubbish pricing calculated by Forbes. This article talks about it.

What is the Real Price of russian Missiles: About the Cost of 'Kalibr', Kh-101 and 'Iskander' Missiles | Defense Express

Detailed explanation, why Kh-101 is not worth $13 mln and "Kalibr" doesn’t cost 6.5 mln as well, and what numbers are more realistic

en.defence-ua.com

They suggest these are more realistic figures:

• Kh-101 – approx. up to $1.2 mln
• "Kalibr" cruise missile – approx. up to $1 mln
• "Iskander", R-500 cruise – approx. up to $1 mln
• "Iskander", 9M723 ballistic – approx. up to $2 mln
• "Oniks" – approx. $3mln

You get a number less than $300 million if you use those figures.
BTW RF had a fleet of 423 Kh-101 sometime during 2023, firing 115 in one go is a substantial use of the fleet.

 

[Zidane98]

Putin has tried to attack Kyiv reservoir. Most of the attack failed but if it succeeded civilian deaths would have been incalculable.

This should be crossing ared line for western nations on Putin who value a peaceful Europe.

All weapons should be available for any purpose anywhere against Russian AF.

 

[Saint]

The last time GazProm's share price was this low was in 2013. In real terms, it's probably halved in price since that time.

The Russian market had rebounded, but since May, the Index is down 20%, and May's peak was 20% off the pre-war peak.

Forget about the loss of revenue, the loss of wealth is hitting oligarchs too. Keep in mind their assets are frozen overseas. They'll be getting squeezed on things like loans using assets as collateral. Those assets plummeting in price and no other recourse to get access to their other European investments.

Probably a good time to be buying central London mansions or Swiss chalets.

 

[Chief]

They'll be getting squeezed on things like loans using assets as collateral.

There will be tons of dodgily valued assets used as collateral for very low interest loans or lines of credit. When there is absolutely no market for them or no way to sell them as they are frozen, banks will reel the credit back in.

 

[Saint]

There will be tons of dodgily valued assets used as collateral for very low interest loans or lines of credit. When there is absolutely no market for them or no way to sell them as they are frozen, banks will reel the credit back in.

The European banks make mints out of these high value individuals. The bank individuals get individual bonuses so they bend over backwards to accommodate them so that they don't go to the next bank. As long as they stay roughly within the rules.

 

[Chief]

The European banks make mints out of these high value individuals. The bank individuals get individual bonuses so they bend over backwards to accommodate them so that they don't go to the next bank. As long as they stay roughly within the rules.

If you're the dude looking at the overall risk, this stuff would start to get a bit heavy to carry I reckon.

 

[Syd]

There will be tons of dodgily valued assets used as collateral for very low interest loans or lines of credit. When there is absolutely no market for them or no way to sell them as they are frozen, banks will reel the credit back in.

Trumpenomics 101

 

[Zidane98]

 

[wannabejack]

Anticipating War Through 2025, Ukraine Is Standing Up New Mechanized Brigades

These brigades will need thousands of troops and thousands of vehicles.

www.forbes.com

New mechanized brigades begin the process of formation | MilitaryLand.net

The 160ish series of mechanized brigades will be formed abroad.

militaryland.net

These brigades are being built around experienced units in Ukraine and will later be sent abroad for training at Western military facilities. The personnel for these brigades are expected to be recruited from Ukrainians living abroad.
The new mechanized brigades have been assigned numbers in the 160-series. The first known unit is the 160th Mechanized Brigade, which is already actively forming.

If everything proceeds as planned, these brigades are intended to participate in Ukraine’s 2025 offensive, while the 150-series brigades will be tasked with relieving exhausted units currently deployed at the front.

 

[Zidane98]

 

[CD Xbow]

The F16 is proving useful for air defence against Russian cruise missiles. This is what folks thought would be it's main initial mission. A good one for the new pilots to master before undertaking more complex missions

F-16 Shields Ukraine From Cruise Missiles Better Than Any Ground-Stationed Air Defense System Could | Defense Express

Ukraine already uses the F-16 for air defense, and this is the kind of role in which this fighter excels much more than Soviet fighters and even than classic surface-to-air missile systems

en.defence-ua.com

An F-16 not only has a much larger cover area due to potent radars and is not constrained by the radar horizon, it also can relocate to different air bases and utilize advanced aerodromes....

The F16 has a downward looking radar which makes it much better than old Soviet fighters in detecting cruise missiles. Fighters are usually flying much higher than cruise missiles, so a downward looking radar makes it much easier to find them.

 

[DaTBird187]

Certainly a left field career move for Eddie Jones post Wallabies.

 

[barreness]

Russians doing the same things after suffering embarrassment on the military airfields.


barreness why do you think it is Ukranian soldiers are able to avoid murdering, torturing and raping Russian civilians upon invading Russian territory while also somehow resisting the impulse to thieve and loot?


Pretty stark differences between the way both armies conduct themselves on enemy territory.

As far as wars goes this has been surprisingly clean, obviously Russia has done war crimes and being on Ukrainian soil they get the opportunity.

Very ethnically and culturally similar, maybe that. Historically the amount of war crimes depends on leadership encouragement(or lack of discouragement) or lack of control on a unit basis(NCO's and similar).

Ukraine seems to have strong discouragement from the leadership and pretty good unit control, Russia not so good in both areas. However we aren't talking Nazi nor Gaza here, Russian soldier's actions aren't disimliar to the US crimes in Iraq(yes yes, whataboutism)

 

[barreness]

86% success rate from Ukraine, pretty impressive.


This attack would have cost Russia hundreds of millions of dollars.


Comrade barreness - surely you would agree this money would be better spent on providing indoor toilets for citizens of Russia ?

If we believe Ukraine numbers

You'll note I thought this would happen, no matter chief's insistence my language was domestic violence adjacent

Probably more like up the ante on the energy infrastructure, these will result in thousands of excess civilian deaths so same result really

Ukraine and Russia were set to send delegations to Doha this month to negotiate a landmark agreement halting strikes on energy and power infrastructure on both sides

....were derailed by Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region last week

......reducing Moscow’s oil refining by an estimated 15 percent

Because of Russian airstrikes, Ukraine has lost around nine gigawatts of the 18 gigawatts needed for peak consumption this winter — far too much to recover in a short period of time. Officials say electricity could be limited to five to seven hours a day — or less — during the frigid months.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/17/kursk-ukraine-russia-energy-ceasefire/

Moldova had a little trouble with some black outs so it's fair to say something was hit
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/08...dova-after-massive-russian-attack-on-ukraine/

Not sure I'd want to be in Ukraine during winter with a few hours of power a day. Temps average -4c in Kiev during January

 

[barreness]

Russian suicide drone lands inside NATO territory.

What will happen? nothing obvs

What do you think will happen?

 

[barreness]

My prediction? This time next year the 3 day special military operation will still be ongoing, and you will be a parrot still echoing your “Ukraine is finished in the next 6 months” rhetoric.

Ok cool, lets find out

 

[barreness]

Anticipating War Through 2025, Ukraine Is Standing Up New Mechanized Brigades

These brigades will need thousands of troops and thousands of vehicles.

www.forbes.com

New mechanized brigades begin the process of formation | MilitaryLand.net

The 160ish series of mechanized brigades will be formed abroad.

militaryland.net

These brigades are being built around experienced units in Ukraine and will later be sent abroad for training at Western military facilities. The personnel for these brigades are expected to be recruited from Ukrainians living abroad.
The new mechanized brigades have been assigned numbers in the 160-series. The first known unit is the 160th Mechanized Brigade, which is already actively forming.

If everything proceeds as planned, these brigades are intended to participate in Ukraine’s 2025 offensive, while the 150-series brigades will be tasked with relieving exhausted units currently deployed at the front.

An awfully optimistic line

 

[Zidane98]

An awfully optimistic line

Optimism is something that Vlad lacks completely.

If he chooses to continue his fruitless fascist invasion there's years of pain ahead for the everyday Russian while Putin becomes Kim Jong Un on a huge scale.

Rostov, Belgorod, Bryansk & Kursk all likely to be occupied.

At this stage the easiest thing for Vlad to do in order to protect the sovereignty of Russia is to withdraw completely from Ukraine and declare victory in the war..