Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Zidane98]

Quite ironic as comrade barreness was just boasting about how secure Russian power assets were.

Turns out they can't protect power stations in Moscow region.

Yet another example of just how badly Putin is losing the war he started.

It's all much easier for him to withdraw completely and do a deal. Otherwise this is what Russia faces - perpetually.

 

[RonSon]

10 more scenes of Russia being the second best military in Russia. [TG post link]
At night and in the morning, attack UAVs attacked several state district power plants and oil refineries on the territory of the Russian Federation, including in Moscow.

Burn Putinwood, burn!

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Visions]

A report quoting Russian state sources of 160 Ukrainian drone attacks on multiple targets overnight. [TG post link]

Over 160 drones attacked Russian territory overnight. Key points about the large-scale attack on the Russian Federation:
— According to the Ministry of Defense, most drones were intercepted over the territory of the Kursk (46), Bryansk (34) and Voronezh (28) regions.
— 14 UAVs were intercepted over the territory of the Belgorod region, 8 over the territory of the Ryazan region, 5 over the territory of the Kaluga region, 4 over the territory of the Lipetsk region, 3 over the territory of the Tula region, 2 drones over the territories of the Tambov and Smolensk regions, one over the territories of the Oryol, Tver and Ivanovo regions.
— In the Tver region, a fire broke out at the Konakovskaya State District Power Plant after a UAV attack. According to preliminary information, there are no casualties.
— Seven unmanned aerial vehicles have arrived in the Moscow region. According to the Defense Ministry, two were intercepted over Moscow, and five were intercepted over the Moscow region. One of the drones fell on a barn next to a private home in the village of Durnikha.
— One of the downed drones damaged a separate technical room of the Moscow Oil Refinery as a result of the fall, and a fire started there. This was reported by Sergei Sobyanin. They wanted to involve aviation in the fire, but, according to Baza, it was not needed and was recalled due to the lowering of the fire's complexity level.
— The Kashira State District Power Plant was also under threat. Three UAVs attacked the station's territory. "There were no casualties or damage, and no fire followed," said the head of Kashira, Mikhail Shuvalov.

Yeah all drones were intercepted.

Some were even intercepted by oil tanks and a power plant itself….

Since Russia claim to have shot down every drone that has been fired, they have no right to complain about any damage!

 

[barreness]

Russian economy in tatters

According to you it was going to collapse within months of the war starting, still waiting

First time invaded since WW2

Wow, you got one, well done

Black Sea fleet decimated - Sevastopol rendered useless

Turkey controls the straits and military shipping that is allowed in

Having to make an alliance with Kim Jong

Having to?

Begging Iran, Nth Korea, Belarus for weapons

Buying weapons you mean, Ukraine is the one doing the begging

Oil refining capacity in tatters

15% drop in capacity, certainly a loss but tatters is a stretch

620,000 losses and climbing

Is this according to Ukraine?

Suspended by most major international associations

Just the western ones really, and their influences is waning, still about 6/8 billion people willing to trade

Ukraine stronger than ever, pretty much Europe & the entire western world backing it. Smart thing to do, stop Putin now before we have another Hitler like scenario in Europe.

Yes yes, it has to be Hitler because that's the only moral war they've ever fought

Ukraine is lost to Russia forever.

Except for the bits they control I guess

Putin's lost, it's a matter of how much of Russia he wants to destroy before giving up.

Face it comrade. Even if you aren't allowed to say such things in your workplace.

I just don't get how you can come to this. How have you lost when you control ~20% of the country you invaded

 

[Chief]

I just don't get how you can come to this. How have you lost when you control ~20% of the country you invaded

I suppose after promising to win the whole thing in 3 days... ?

Russian brain drain ongoing.

 

[barreness]

Quite ironic as comrade barreness was just boasting about how secure Russian power assets were.

Yes I definitely did this, care to quote my boasting of secure power assets?

Turns out they can't protect power stations in Moscow region.

Yet another example of just how badly Putin is losing the war he started.

It's all much easier for him to withdraw completely and do a deal. Otherwise this is what Russia faces - perpetually.

How's the situation of Ukraine's power grid? You'll just skip over this no doubt

I suppose Ukraine droning nuclear plants is just cool and normal
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...-nuclear-plant-after-drone-attack-2024-08-22/

 

[Smeg Head]

I suppose Ukraine droning nuclear plants is just cool and normal
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...-nuclear-plant-after-drone-attack-2024-08-22/

I mean yes? If we were to take all of Russian history into account, long term nuking Moscow right now would theoretically save the most lives. So get cracking.

 

[barreness]

I suppose after promising to win the whole thing in 3 days... ?

Russian brain drain ongoing.

Sure, massively underestimated Ukraine, it's not 'lost' though

Millions have fleed Ukraine and they've lost key resource and agricultural regions. Ukraine is considered defaulted on its massive IMF debt by both major ratings agencies, they rely on foriegn aid for everything(both civilian and military). This is a war won in Zidanes book, a courageous defeat is still a defeat

 

[barreness]

I mean yes? If we were to take all of Russian history into account, long term nuking Moscow right now would theoretically save the most lives. So get cracking.

Jesus christ. Let's end the world to teach the Russians a lesson

All of Russian history? There's only one country that has launched a nuke in anger at civilian populations

 

[Chief]

Sure, massively underestimated Ukraine, it's not 'lost' though

Millions have fleed Ukraine and they've lost key resource and agricultural regions. Ukraine is considered defaulted on its massive IMF debt by both major ratings agencies, they rely on foriegn aid for everything(both civilian and military). This is a war won in Zidanes book, a courageous defeat is still a defeat

Yeah, I just can't see them defeating the entire western world with China picking at their wounds on top of everything else.

If the US is still supporting a genocidal nation in Israel they aren't abandoning Ukraine at any point.

 

[Jamolad]

I just don't get how you can come to this. How have you lost when you control ~20% of the country you invaded

If you look at it objectively, what it has cost Russia in terms of loss of life, materiel/equipment, trade, reputation, economy, brain-drain, infrastructure, industry, etc - not just now but the ongoing ramifications that will be felt for years/decades - do you think it was worth it?

Personally I feel they have both lost. Sure, Ukraine has lost more, but they aren't the aggressor (they did not want this war). When this finally reaches a "new normal" which won't be for many years from now, when all ramifications and costs are taken into account, anything less than a substantial net benefit for Russia is a loss for Russia.

I'm tipping you'll apply a different weight to most of us to benefits of what Russia may achieve, and downplay the immediate realised costs and the ongoing unrealised costs, so you can call it a win. Will be interesting to see, not just the creative accountancy, but the difference in what you value and what costs you think are acceptable or "cheap" for what Russia "gains" out of all this.

 

[barreness]

Yeah, I just can't see them defeating the entire western world with China picking at their wounds on top of everything else.

If the US is still supporting a genocidal nation in Israel they aren't abandoning Ukraine at any point.

Israel is a special case imo, a lot of political power in the US itself plus the evangelical stuff

US has been happy to abandon the South Vietnamese, Afghan army, the Kurds. Not sure post soviet orthodox slavs have that much pull

 

[barreness]

If you look at it objectively, what it has cost Russia in terms of loss of life, materiel/equipment, trade, reputation, economy, brain-drain, infrastructure, industry, etc - not just now but the ongoing ramifications that will be felt for years/decades - do you think it was worth it?

Probably not but what war is

Personally I feel they have both lost. Sure, Ukraine has lost more, but they aren't the aggressor (they did not want this war). When this finally reaches a "new normal" which won't be for many years from now, when all ramifications and costs are taken into account, anything less than a substantial net benefit for Russia is a loss for Russia.

This is changing what most would consider what a win/loss is in a war

I'm tipping you'll apply a different weight to most of us to benefits of what Russia may achieve, and downplay the immediate realised costs and the ongoing unrealised costs, so you can call it a win. Will be interesting to see, not just the creative accountancy, but the difference in what you value and what costs you think are acceptable or "cheap" for what Russia "gains" out of all this.

The interesting thing is that anything not completely pro Ukraine is considered pro Russian, any and all criticism of Ukraine is considered Putin worship or 'bot'.

Russia has spent considerable resources but has gained strategic regions. Ukraine has lost it's sovereignty most likely forever, when the peace deals finally happen whatever rump state remains will be wholly owned by foreign western interests

 

[Jamolad]

Ok...now do Russia - what does their future look like after this? You think they are going to be better off or worse off?

I'm not trying to redefine what it means to win or lose a war, I just want to know if you think it was worth it, or whether it was a mistake by Russia?

I notice you looked at it very simplistically from perspective of "considerable resources" versus "gained strategic regions", with no consideration of ongoing sanctions, international reputation, loss of energy income/customers, brain drain, damaged infrastructure, etc. Take it all into account and tell me if you think it was a good idea to invade that sovereign country.

Would Russia be better off, now and long-term, if they did not invade?

 

[Saint]

Ok...now do Russia - what does their future look like after this? You think they are going to be better off or worse off?

I'm not trying to redefine what it means to win or lose a war, I just want to know if you think it was worth it, or whether it was a mistake by Russia?

I notice you looked at it very simplistically from perspective of "considerable resources" versus "gained strategic regions", with no consideration of ongoing sanctions, international reputation, loss of energy income/customers, brain drain, damaged infrastructure, etc. Take it all into account and tell me if you think it was a good idea to invade that sovereign country.

Would Russia be better off, now and long-term, if they did not invade?

The elites are better off, more resources to plunder. The average Russian will be worse off for decades, but that doesn't really count in Putin's considerations.

I think they're betting the oligarchs can bribe their way out of sanctions if Trump wins and with friendly bribed leaders in the EU like Hungary.

 

[Zidane98]

Apparently this is what victory looks like.

 

[Zidane98]

According to you it was going to collapse within months of the war starting, still waiting

According to you guys it was all going to be over in a week with Ukraine gloriously rejoining the new Russian empire.

Wow, you got one, well done

Most people would also call Ukraine denazifying the Russian Black Sea fleet a win also unless you're Russian.

Turkey controls the straits and military shipping that is allowed in

Turkey is a NATO member. This isn't a win for Russia.

Having to?

Buying weapons you mean, Ukraine is the one doing the begging

Which nations that voluntarily supply military have signed a collective defense treaty with Ukraine? You will find the answer is zero. The reason that collectively Ukraine gets support is because nobody wants to see Europe break out into all out war again. Which is a serious possibility if Putin's fascism was able to succeed in Ukraine.

Meanwhile Putin has to visit North Korea and publicly sign a treaty. Utterly embarrassing for Russia and it's all on your dear leader Adolf Puti.

15% drop in capacity, certainly a loss but tatters is a stretch

Is this according to Ukraine?

Russia has started to import refined fuel.

Just the western ones really, and their influences is waning, still about 6/8 billion people willing to trade

Just the western ones? Lol. I've heard other vatniks try and claim the 6 billion figure. This is nonsense, the entire population of a nation does not choose to trade with anyone.

The cold hard facts are that Russia's only allies are North Korea, Belarus, Syria & Eritrea plus maybe a few random dictatorships in Africa.

China, Iran & India do trade with Russia but only on terms favorable to them.

Most of the world does not trade with Russia and Russia is banned from most international organisations.

It is officially a pariah state. Which is not a smart move as Russia relies on western nations to supply it with technology and also used to trade significantly with natural resources in the other direction. This of course has been obliterated and it's all due to Putin's absolutely pointless fascist invasion. You know it.

Yes yes, it has to be Hitler because that's the only moral war they've ever fought

It has to be because we don't want to see a Europe wide war ever again.

Except for the bits they control I guess

There's no benefit to Russia at all by controlling those bits. It simply isn't feasible to have to accept losses of maintaining an invasion that is costing on average 200,000 plus casualties per year. It also is directly resulting in loss of Russian territory. There is no benefit at all to Russia continuing its invasion. It's all down to Putin's fascist ideology of a new Russian empire he dreams of / USSR 2.0 lite. Someone in Russia needs to tell him those days are over for the sake of all Russian people.

I just don't get how you can come to this. How have you lost when you control ~20% of the country you invaded

See above reasons. Having 20% control of anywhere isn't a win unless you are able to do so with the agreement of the international community and the state you are invading. The costs to Russia and the average person are simply of many magnitudes more than any tangible benefit to Russia for Putin continuing his fascist invasion. Therefore, it cannot be a win.

Unless a hero from within Russia takes out Putin I see this war ending just like the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the US in Vietnam. Collateral simply becomes too great and it becomes politically favorable to simply withdraw.


Considering this is the most likely outcome Putin may as well call it quits now.

 

[jatz14]

Probably not but what war is

This is changing what most would consider what a win/loss is in a war

The interesting thing is that anything not completely pro Ukraine is considered pro Russian, any and all criticism of Ukraine is considered Putin worship or 'bot'.

Russia has spent considerable resources but has gained strategic regions. Ukraine has lost it's sovereignty most likely forever, when the peace deals finally happen whatever rump state remains will be wholly owned by foreign western interests

We know what anti war looks like, and you aren't it.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Saint]

Probably not but what war is

This is changing what most would consider what a win/loss is in a war

The interesting thing is that anything not completely pro Ukraine is considered pro Russian, any and all criticism of Ukraine is considered Putin worship or 'bot'.

Russia has spent considerable resources but has gained strategic regions. Ukraine has lost it's sovereignty most likely forever, when the peace deals finally happen whatever rump state remains will be wholly owned by foreign western interests

Rump state owned by foreign western interests?

Isn't that a more apt description of Russia, when you consider most of the oligarchs keep most of their wealth in the west?

That Russia will keep those "strategic regions" is not a fait accompli any more than Ukraine keeping the parts of Russia they occupy.

 

[Cap]

The war will ruin the Russian economy/they need the war to stop the economy collapsing? Whether true or not it puts your rhetoric in a bind

One is long term, one is short term

Its not particularly difficult to understand.

Mind you, Russian economy is already ****ed. The war is keeping it looking alive.

Cannot wait til it collapses completely, hopefully it happens sooner rather than later so we can stop seeing Ukrainian civilians targeted.

 

[Cap]

Conscripts can be used for Russian defence, so Kursk is on the cards for them, was a big deal when some were found on the Ukrainian front line.

The Russian force is largely volunteer, memes don't change that

Every Nazi mention you make weakens the argument. Zelensky literally nationalised the media and put all the major players under state control

What has nationalising things got to do with Nazism?

 

[barreness]

Ok...now do Russia - what does their future look like after this? You think they are going to be better off or worse off?

They've essentially split from Europe until they come back for affordable fossils. Cut off from western finance(swift etc) has and will cost them. You would think that it's all in on BRICS now, whether this turns out to be functional, we'll see. A lot does depend on China, imo I think this is a good bet, Europe in decline and the US clinging on to hegemony.

Plus shitloads of casualties and materiel loss obvs. If a war with NATO happens soon they're cooked but they probably were anyway, hence the Ukraine gamble

I'm not trying to redefine what it means to win or lose a war, I just want to know if you think it was worth it, or whether it was a mistake by Russia?

There have been a lot of mistakes from all actors in this, it's why it's ended up with an attritional war in eastern Europe.

Was the 2022 invasion a mistake? Yes the initial plan was overconfidence in the extreme. Was it a mistake to reassert Russian influence? they didn't have a choice if they wanted to maintain themselves as a regional power

I notice you looked at it very simplistically from perspective of "considerable resources" versus "gained strategic regions", with no consideration of ongoing sanctions, international reputation, loss of energy income/customers, brain drain, damaged infrastructure, etc. Take it all into account and tell me if you think it was a good idea to invade that sovereign country.

Sanctions- That's just part of being not an American satellite these days
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2024/us-sanction-countries-work/
A third of countries are sanctioned, part of the world order at this point

International reputation- Meh, kinda indefinable. China and India still deal with them, plus huge swathes of Africa/Latin America/Asia

Energy income- They'll always be cheaper than competitors so the carrot is always there, if I'm going nostradamous energy trading will normalise quite quickly after a peace deal

Brain Drain- A concern for most of the world where capital is free and people movement is controlled, high wages attract skilled workers and wealthy countries want them

Infrastructure- Hitting refineries has been the main target, will be costly but they've got the skill base to rebuild. In-elasticity of oil products means it mostly just results in a higher world price which encourages reinvestment

Would Russia be better off, now and long-term, if they did not invade?

There's a huge amount to play out, I think it's obvious that we are entering a multipolar world while the globes ecology is collapsing, what individual countries do short term will take years to figure out if it was a good move.

Wars don't help anyone which is why diplomacy should have solved this issue, it did not so here we are

 

[barreness]

We know what anti war looks like, and you aren't it.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yes it looks like ceding to US hegemony, A lot of the worlds nations aren't willing to do this and they have the power to resist these days. Continuation of this policy will result in more war

 

[barreness]

Rump state owned by foreign western interests?

Yeh, well they kinda already were but it'll get worse

Isn't that a more apt description of Russia, when you consider most of the oligarchs keep most of their wealth in the west?

It is to a degree, the neoliberal reforms and disaster capitalism have ended with an oligarchal mafia state, great. Where they keep that money is obviously based on where the profits are maxed, so quite a bit in the west. It's hard to call it western owned when those oligarchs are Russian though

The goal is not to have oligarchs imo

That Russia will keep those "strategic regions" is not a fait accompli any more than Ukraine keeping the parts of Russia they occupy.

The former is imo, how to they lose those areas? Full NATO invasion, I don't think it will happen

The later is also imo, as always we'll see