Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[barreness]

What has nationalising things got to do with Nazism?

https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/the-press-in-the-third-reich

Establishing Control of the Press​

When Adolf Hitler took power in 1933, the Nazis controlled less than three percent of Germany’s 4,700 papers.


The elimination of the German multi-party political system brought about the demise of hundreds of newspapers produced by outlawed political parties. It also allowed the state to seize the printing plants and equipment of the Communist and Social Democratic Parties, which were often turned over directly to the Nazi Party. In the following months, the Nazis established control or exerted influence over independent press organs.

 

[barreness]

One is long term, one is short term

Its not particularly difficult to understand.

Mind you, Russian economy is already ****ed. The war is keeping it looking alive.

Cannot wait til it collapses completely, hopefully it happens sooner rather than later so we can stop seeing Ukrainian civilians targeted.

Again this puts your rhetoric in a bind. Russia must continue the war to stop their economy from collapsing hence more Ukrainians will have to die.

The other option of a peace treaty with some ceding of territory can not happen apparently, let the endless war continue I guess

 

[Cap]

Again this puts your rhetoric in a bind. Russia must continue the war to stop their economy from collapsing hence more Ukrainians will have to die.

Again, it doesn't put me in a bind

Russia have decided to abandon their previous economy in favour of a war economy to try and complete their genocide of Ukraine.

Their economy is now make oil to sell to make tanks and missiles.

it puts Putin in a bind, but thats all of his own doing and hopefully sooner rather than later his demise.

The other option of a peace treaty with some ceding of territory can not happen apparently, let the endless war continue I guess

No, give Ukraine everything it needs to expell Russia. Or at the very least make the KGB believe it possible so they kill Putin and retreat to their own borders.

win win for everyone else

 

[Cap]

https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/the-press-in-the-third-reich

Establishing Control of the Press​

When Adolf Hitler took power in 1933, the Nazis controlled less than three percent of Germany’s 4,700 papers.


The elimination of the German multi-party political system brought about the demise of hundreds of newspapers produced by outlawed political parties. It also allowed the state to seize the printing plants and equipment of the Communist and Social Democratic Parties, which were often turned over directly to the Nazi Party. In the following months, the Nazis established control or exerted influence over independent press organs.

so just because the Nazi party did something it automatically makes it the sign of Nazism.

I mean its a sign of authoritarianism, but it really doesn't make them Nazis, especially when you know they are being attacked by a person trying to wipe their existence from the record books.

 

[barreness]

According to you guys it was all going to be over in a week with Ukraine gloriously rejoining the new Russian empire.

Most people would also call Ukraine denazifying the Russian Black Sea fleet a win also unless you're Russian.

Turkey is a NATO member. This isn't a win for Russia.

That's my point ya donkey

Which nations that voluntarily supply military have signed a collective defense treaty with Ukraine? You will find the answer is zero. The reason that collectively Ukraine gets support is because nobody wants to see Europe break out into all out war again. Which is a serious possibility if Putin's fascism was able to succeed in Ukraine.

Why would Europe break out into war, the vast majority is under a 'defence' treaty

Meanwhile Putin has to visit North Korea and publicly sign a treaty. Utterly embarrassing for Russia and it's all on your dear leader Adolf Puti.

The soviet union was always NK's biggest ally, this continued under the Russian federation(as much as they could afford, which was F.A. in the 90's). It remains under sanctions by almost everyone else so why wouldn't they trade.

If Kim believes the Russians would come to save him lol, no one in the world believes this except for you. That's why they have nukes

Russia has started to import refined fuel.

Yeh, to maintain domestic supply and international contracts. Still exporting both refined and crude

Just the western ones? Lol. I've heard other vatniks try and claim the 6 billion figure. This is nonsense, the entire population of a nation does not choose to trade with anyone.

The leadership does, which 6 billion live under. Do you control who Australia trades with?

The cold hard facts are that Russia's only allies are North Korea, Belarus, Syria & Eritrea plus maybe a few random dictatorships in Africa.

China, Iran & India do trade with Russia but only on terms favorable to them.

That's how trade works my dude. You'd be a slave state if you traded under terms unfavourable

Most of the world does not trade with Russia and Russia is banned from most international organisations.

Most of the world does, by population, or is at least open to it.

International(read western aka US backed) organisations don't run most of the world anymore

It is officially a pariah state. Which is not a smart move as Russia relies on western nations to supply it with technology and also used to trade significantly with natural resources in the other direction. This of course has been obliterated and it's all due to Putin's absolutely pointless fascist invasion. You know it.

They have China for tech, also they still are leaders in certain sectors, some useful military ones

The world is forming into blocs, whether this escalates to a full world war or another cold war will depend on all sides. This is but the first shot

It has to be because we don't want to see a Europe wide war ever again.

Europe is unified but in decline and tending to fascism. A post soviet eastern European slum fight was not a necessary war

There's no benefit to Russia at all by controlling those bits. It simply isn't feasible to have to accept losses of maintaining an invasion that is costing on average 200,000 plus casualties per year. It also is directly resulting in loss of Russian territory. There is no benefit at all to Russia continuing its invasion. It's all down to Putin's fascist ideology of a new Russian empire he dreams of / USSR 2.0 lite. Someone in Russia needs to tell him those days are over for the sake of all Russian people.

What do you think are the Ukrainian loses? oh they don't publish them, blow me down with a feather.

You won't get reliable figures until many years after the war, stop eating the propaganda

See above reasons. Having 20% control of anywhere isn't a win unless you are able to do so with the agreement of the international community and the state you are invading. The costs to Russia and the average person are simply of many magnitudes more than any tangible benefit to Russia for Putin continuing his fascist invasion. Therefore, it cannot be a win.

Ukraine doesn't agree with Russia holding it's territory therefore it's not a win, brilliant logic

Unless a hero from within Russia takes out Putin I see this war ending just like the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the US in Vietnam. Collateral simply becomes too great and it becomes politically favorable to simply withdraw.

The differnce being the regions annexed have a Russian population(ethnic/language), they have at various times lived under the Russian empire/ Soviet Union. Neither of the above conflicts are close tbh, nor did they end with the assassinations

Considering this is the most likely outcome Putin may as well call it quits now.

I'll pass this on, you are a very convincing witness

 

[barreness]

Again, it doesn't put me in a bind

Well I can't hold you accountable for others post so fair enough

Russia have decided to abandon their previous economy in favour of a war economy to try and complete their genocide of Ukraine.

Hard to call it a full war economy, this site has it as 6% of gdp as of october 2023, it's hard to find accurate up to date info of course
https://carnegieendowment.org/russi...ts-planning-for-a-long-war-in-ukraine?lang=en

As an example most powers averaged 40% odd over WW2
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1333250/wwii-military-spending-share-income/

Their economy is now make oil to sell to make tanks and missiles.

Oil, gas, agriculture(incl fertilisers etc), minerals, and arms. This has long been the Russian economy, I wasn't expecting to them to take on the tech or finance industry but those are sort of ethereal things in themselves

it puts Putin in a bind, but thats all of his own doing and hopefully sooner rather than later his demise.

I disagree but fair enough

No, give Ukraine everything it needs to expell Russia. Or at the very least make the KGB believe it possible so they kill Putin and retreat to their own borders.

FSB comrade and I think he's got a pretty strong hold on it. Wagner was the interesting one but that ship sailed

win win for everyone else

I don't think most Ukrainian individuals will win out of this whatever the end result

 

[barreness]

so just because the Nazi party did something it automatically makes it the sign of Nazism.

You'll note I didn't raise Nazism in the post were this began, it was accusing Putin of being Hitler

No it doesn't make them Nazi's; but you throw in the waffen SS brigades symbolism, worshipping a Nazi collaborator as a national hero, throwing out the ultra nationalist/anti soviet salute to the wider world(slava ukraini). Surely raises a few questions

I mean its a sign of authoritarianism, but it really doesn't make them Nazis, especially when you know they are being attacked by a person trying to wipe their existence from the record books.

Scratch a liberal and a fascist bleeds

 

[Cap]

Scratch a liberal and a fascist bleeds

Come on, you have put in to much effort to fumble with something as silly as that

 

[Saint]

Come on, you have put in to much effort to fumble with something as silly as that

It's the most classic attack on democracy and liberalism. Straight out of the authoritarian propaganda sheet.

"Yes, we're dreadful authoritarians, but so are they, they're just disguising it better, so let us continue to rob our people blind".

Russia will not have to withdraw until either they run out of recruits (unlikely) or they run out of money to sustain the war. It's unlikely Ukraine will increase manpower enough to militarily push Russia out of Donbas so it is still the economic war which the EU needs to help Ukraine to win.

The only way Ukraine gets those lands back is if Russia withdraws from them. And that requires the Russian calculation to be that it's more costly to stay than to leave.

What Russia is overlooking is that when they invaded, it was at a time of rampant inflation and nobody in the west wanted to risk increasing it by stopping Russian energy exports. If inflation falls to the 2% range in the US/EU and other energy sources have become more robust, next Spring would be the time that the EU/US would be able to ramp up the sanction pressure. They need to do something in that space.

That's why Ukraine is attacking Russia's oil and gas sectors with drone attacks. They know that Russia doesn't care about dead troops, just whether the oligarchs make more money if the troops stay than if they leave. And don't forget there's a lot of oligarchs making money off arms manufacturing. It's not like the oligarchs ever made money from tourism.

 

[Chief]

also somehow resisting the impulse to thieve and loot?

The Russians have nothing left to take?

 

[Zidane98]

You'll note I didn't raise Nazism in the post were this began, it was accusing Putin of being Hitler

No it doesn't make them Nazi's; but you throw in the waffen SS brigades symbolism

Every major nation in the world has Neo Nazis. We even have guys in point cook proudly pledging their allegiance to Hitler. Are they Nazis ? Yes. Is Australia a Nazi nation? Absolutely not. This is exactly the same for Ukraine.

, worshipping a Nazi collaborator as a national hero

This happens with Stalin in Russia and you don't have a problem with it.

, throwing out the ultra nationalist/anti soviet salute to the wider world(slava ukraini). Surely raises a few questions

Slava Ukraina is not a fascist salute at all, yet more lies you are amplifying. It comes from Taras Shevhecnko, famous Ukranian poet and is generally used as a form of resistance to aggressive actions from foreign fascist states.

Scratch a liberal and a fascist bleeds

For once, you get something right about Russia.

 

[Zidane98]

Hopefully something happens here, time to make it impossible for Putin to maintain occupation of Ukranian territory.

 

[Mobbs]

Interesting "Thermite Drone" employed by Ukraine.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Oh plus a friend from central Ukraine now in Moldova, two friends from Sumy still in Sumy, and various buddies in Russia in places including Tambov, SPb, Perm, Kras, rural Altay, plus one Ukrainian contact now in China and a Kazakh in Kostanay. And one pro-Russian Donbas-born Ukrainian now in Georgia.

Don't even bother Mobbs. Seriously, don't take their bait.

 

[Mobbs]

Plans for a rejig of Ukrainian cabinet. Good to see Kuleba getting the arse. Bit of a dickhead imo. Set back Polish-Ukrainian reparation progress quite a bit with some dumb comments.

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[Jello_B]

Plans for a rejig of Ukrainian cabinet. Good to see Kuleba getting the arse. Bit of a dickhead imo. Set back Polish-Ukrainian reparation progress quite a bit with some dumb comments.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

Hi Mobbs, do you have a view on why Ukraine missile targets inside Russia are generally at power / oil infrastructure and not military ones?
Reading about the Russian strike on Poltava this morning, it seems that was effective (for Russia).
Obvious answer is I guess they are trying to disable Russia economically, but I’m not sure why they wouldn’t be targeting military infrastructure.

 

[Jamolad]

Barreness, you're seriously all over the place mate.

You act all offended when you are labelled pro Russian and you try to push a bullshit narrative that you are just some peacenik that desperately wants the killing and the loss of life to end, hence why you want Ukraine to capitulate...and then you go repeating the "nazis" and "suppression of Russian language" and all the other bullshit justifications used by Russia when you yourself have also previously said all of that is total bullshit and that it all comes down to land-bridge to Crimea and stealing resource rich and productive lands, and extending sphere of influence.

Huge amount of your previous posts betray you, we see you for who you are, so stop insulting our intelligence and quit the charade and the faux outrage at "being labelled pro-Russian just because you are not 100% pro-Ukraine". You are labelled pro-Russian because all of your posting are pro-Russian, with the exception of where it is pointed out how pro-Russian you are which is when you do your "not pro-Russian, just a realist that wants peace, but [insert pro-Russian narrative]" routine.

 

[Mobbs]

Hi Mobbs, do you have a view on why Ukraine missile targets inside Russia are generally at power / oil infrastructure and not military ones?
Reading about the Russian strike on Poltava this morning, it seems that was effective (for Russia).
Obvious answer is I guess they are trying to disable Russia economically, but I’m not sure why they wouldn’t be targeting military infrastructure.

Hiya. The fuel resources of course have economic impact, but I think it's more that tge war effort requires a lot of that fuel. Ukraine does also target airfields a lot, and especially ammunition storage, but it's probably less so now that the USA protect Russian military assets through their vetoes - Russia moved most air resources out of range. This leaves Ukraine using predominantly drone attacks, and they are slow moving. Russia can see them coming and just put their planes in the air, before strikes can occur.

Poltava was one of the largest civilian slaughters to date. Seriously horrific.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Zidane98]

Hiya. The fuel resources of course have economic impact, but I think it's more that tge war effort requires a lot of that fuel. Ukraine does also target airfields a lot, and especially ammunition storage, but it's probably less so now that the USA protect Russian military assets through their vetoes - Russia moved most air resources out of range. This leaves Ukraine using predominantly drone attacks, and they are slow moving. Russia can see them coming and just put their planes in the air, before strikes can occur.

Poltava was one of the largest civilian slaughters to date. Seriously horrific.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

To strike effectively against Russian military targets in Russia Ukraine are going to need more than large swarms of attack drones.

Full range of ATACMS and other cruise missiles supplied really needs to be available to Ukraine. Some of these have ranges of up to 400km - without looking it up I imagine quite a few Russian military bases would be within that range from Ukranian firing positions.

 

[Elroo]

Hi Mobbs, do you have a view on why Ukraine missile targets inside Russia are generally at power / oil infrastructure and not military ones?
Reading about the Russian strike on Poltava this morning, it seems that was effective (for Russia).
Obvious answer is I guess they are trying to disable Russia economically, but I’m not sure why they wouldn’t be targeting military infrastructure.

Because they've identified a potential weakness in the adversaries' kill chain.

 

[Jello_B]

Hiya. The fuel resources of course have economic impact, but I think it's more that tge war effort requires a lot of that fuel. Ukraine does also target airfields a lot, and especially ammunition storage, but it's probably less so now that the USA protect Russian military assets through their vetoes - Russia moved most air resources out of range. This leaves Ukraine using predominantly drone attacks, and they are slow moving. Russia can see them coming and just put their planes in the air, before strikes can occur.

Poltava was one of the largest civilian slaughters to date. Seriously horrific.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

I can’t find much on civilian casualties for Poltava. Most reporting is that it was soldiers that were killed?

 

[Zidane98]

Again this puts your rhetoric in a bind. Russia must continue the war to stop their economy from collapsing hence more Ukrainians will have to die.

There is no bind here. Putin has placed the Russian economy on a war footing. This is because his fruitless invasion of Ukraine, which is fascist in every way, has resulted in Russia's main source of wealth, natural resource income, being obliterated. Putin could choose to withdraw completely from Ukraine and reintegrate Russia into world markets, stop it becoming even more of a pariah state. The reasons he does not and continues with a war that ultimately weakens the sovereignty of Russia is simply down to the fact that he is prepared to pursue his fascist ideology of a new "Great" Russian empire to the very end.

The other option of a peace treaty with some ceding of territory can not happen apparently, let the endless war continue I guess

For once, you get something right. It makes sense for Putin to withdraw completely from Ukraine in order to restore Russia's place on the world stage and prevent the destruction of its economy.

This is the most obvious course of action right now that protects the interests of Russia.

 

[Hornberger]

Hiya. The fuel resources of course have economic impact, but I think it's more that tge war effort requires a lot of that fuel. Ukraine does also target airfields a lot, and especially ammunition storage, but it's probably less so now that the USA protect Russian military assets through their vetoes - Russia moved most air resources out of range. This leaves Ukraine using predominantly drone attacks, and they are slow moving. Russia can see them coming and just put their planes in the air, before strikes can occur.

Poltava was one of the largest civilian slaughters to date. Seriously horrific.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

An important factor is that the attack drones lack the necessary payload to directly inflict much damage on their targets. You need a cruise missiles with 1,000kg payload to take down a sturdily built bridge. A drone with 25kg payload does nothing.

Ukraine is mostly going after soft targets where the targets themselves provide the fuel (ammo depots, oil refineries, etc) and the attack drones only need to provide the source of ignition.

 

[Rob R]

Interesting "Thermite Drone" employed by Ukraine.

Hopefully design is being passed to Taiwan, they will be great on packed invasion beaches when Xi launches his unprovoked attack on peaceful democratic and independent Taiwan. Unfortunately just like in Russia, it will.be poor conscripts burning rather than the dictators who wanted war to distract from their failures


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[Zidane98]

Just on cruise missile this illustrates the need for Ukraine to be supplied these. If every Russian military asset within this range was perennially at risk of Ukraine cruise missile attack eventually Russia would eventually realise keeping up the invasion is simply not worth it.