Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Rob R]

Just on cruise missile this illustrates the need for Ukraine to be supplied these. If every Russian military asset within this range was perennially at risk of Ukraine cruise missile attack eventually Russia would eventually realise keeping up the invasion is simply not worth it.

Trouble is the West cannot afford to give a lot of its best to Ukraine when Putins mate is escalating his aggressive and irrational behaviour to the neighbouring small democracies.

On SM-A136B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Trouble is the West can afford to give a lot of its best to the Ukraine when Putins mate is escalating his aggressive and irrational behaviour to the neighbouring small democracies.

On SM-A136B using BigFooty.com mobile app

Can or cannot?

And it's just Ukraine, not The Ukraine.

 

[Mobbs]

I can’t find much on civilian casualties for Poltava. Most reporting is that it was soldiers that were killed?

Your reply caught my attention and I've been browsing since I got home from work.
Initial references to it being a military school come from Vladimir Rogov, a Russian collaborator who is installed in some position in occupied Melitopol. He claims its a military building.
At first glance I saw it as more likely targetted because it was an educational institute. This week was a back to school week in Ukraine and many Russian missile attacks have targetted specifically educational facilities (eg in Sumy where a university was targetted). There've also been strikes in Lviv and Krivy Rih which seem to be entirely civilian from what I can see. But talks of a military building do indeed seem to abound re Poltava. Maybe the missile was misaimed?
(all the links are from the same channel - ASTRA - I haven't had time to read much yet)

Russian forces launched a missile strike on the Ukrainian Armed Forces military school in Poltava — Vladimir Rogov

We are talking about the former Higher Military Command School of Communications, which specialized in training personnel in the areas of radar and electronic warfare. "It was this personnel that was hit by a missile strike. This happened during the formation, in which over half a thousand Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers initially took part. The enemy's losses are in the hundreds," Vladimir Rogov, chairman of the commission on sovereignty, patriotic projects and support for veterans of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation, wrote in his Telegram channel.

Ukrainian MP Maryana Bezuglaya indirectly confirmed that there was an arrival of military personnel in Poltava today: "Poltava. The formation in the 128th brigade did not teach anything, no one was punished, Zaluzhny, Syrsky, Pavlyuk "decided" everything then. There is a repetition and repetition of tragedies. Where is the limit?" This refers to November 2023, when the Russian Federation struck the military of the 128th mountain assault brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who were lined up for an award ceremony in the frontline village of Dimitrovo in the Zaporizhia region. Then, according to the 128th brigade, 19 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in a missile strike.

The information is being clarified.

[link]

41 people died, more than 180 were injured — Zelensky commented on the landing in Poltava.

According to him, two ballistic missiles were launched at the city: the strikes hit the territory of an educational institution and a nearby hospital. The building of the Institute of Communications was partially destroyed, and people were trapped under the rubble. "Many were saved. More than 180 people were injured. Unfortunately, many were killed. As of now, 41 people are known to have died," the Ukrainian president said. He ordered an investigation into all the circumstances of the incident.

Today, Russian official Vladimir Rogov said that the forces The Russian Federation launched a missile strike on the Ukrainian Armed Forces Military School in Poltava. According to him, "enemy losses are in the hundreds."

[link]

Footage from the site of the missile strike on the Poltava communications institute, where 41 people were killed and 180 injured
A number of Ukrainian channels write that cadets could have been among the dead and wounded. There is no confirmation of this information.

[link]

The death toll from the missile strike on Poltava has risen to 47, 206 people were injured , - Elena Zelenskaya

[link]

49 dead and 219 injured in Poltava, rubble clearing continues at the site, search teams are working, - OVA head Pronin

[link]

The death toll in Poltava has risen to 51. More than 200 injured, says the Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine

There may be 15 people under the rubble, wrote the head of the OVA Pronin.

UPD. The number of victims has risen to 271, - Zelensky

[link]

Search operations are still underway in Poltava - 13 more people are under the rubble, - SES

The death toll has risen to 52, with 271 people injured.

On September 3, Russian military launched a missile attack on the Institute of Communications in Poltava. Two ballistic missiles were launched at the city.

[link]

 

[Mobbs]

Forgive me if its too off-topic (or remove if a mod thinks its not on-topic enough) but one of the channels I follow on TG actually shared an advertisement promoting the emigration of Russians to Australia! Probably quite inviting to those who are tired of living under a dictator and just wanna live under ratbags who wish they were

From [ASTRA TG]

In 2024, Russians will move to Australia en masse

And this is not surprising: salaries there are 3-5 times higher than in Russia, the ocean is nearby and it is warm all year round, and visas are issued online and without unnecessary hassle.

To learn more about this country and the nuances of moving, read the channel of Natalia Dyachenko, a licensed immigration agent in Australia

She tells how you can move to Australia with your whole family, how to get a student visa and which 450 professions can easily allow you to immigrate to the country.
Natalia actively communicates with her audience and helps them with advice

️This channel will save you a ton of money and time when relocating!

The link for the migration agent's TG is [here] (I'm heading in to check it out now)

Warm all year round? Well, the winters sure are less extreme than out in the middle of Yakutia, that's for sure! And our summers would rarely be quite as hot as parked under a thermite Smaug drone!

 

[Rob R]

Can or cannot?

And it's just Ukraine, not The Ukraine.

Edited to fix my grammatical errors.

Thanks

On SM-A136B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[barreness]

Come on, you have put in to much effort to fumble with something as silly as that

Que? It's a pretty common saying. If you'd asked or seen any of my other political posting you'd know I'm some breed of socialist

 

[barreness]

It's the most classic attack on democracy and liberalism. Straight out of the authoritarian propaganda sheet.

"Yes, we're dreadful authoritarians, but so are they, they're just disguising it better, so let us continue to rob our people blind".

It's a take which has been proven throughout history, the centre will side with fascists when the going gets tough rather than side with socialists.

Macron doing a good job of denying election results at the moment.
Social democrats in germany refusing a coalition with the commies allowing a nazi take over.

The interests of liberals are the interests of capital, they'll put up a good facade but when it comes to it, good luck disenfranchised peoples

Russia will not have to withdraw until either they run out of recruits (unlikely) or they run out of money to sustain the war. It's unlikely Ukraine will increase manpower enough to militarily push Russia out of Donbas so it is still the economic war which the EU needs to help Ukraine to win.

The only way Ukraine gets those lands back is if Russia withdraws from them. And that requires the Russian calculation to be that it's more costly to stay than to leave.

What Russia is overlooking is that when they invaded, it was at a time of rampant inflation and nobody in the west wanted to risk increasing it by stopping Russian energy exports. If inflation falls to the 2% range in the US/EU and other energy sources have become more robust, next Spring would be the time that the EU/US would be able to ramp up the sanction pressure. They need to do something in that space.

So accept higher energy prices? just because the inflation figure goes down it doesn't mean energy prices aren't permanently higher

That's why Ukraine is attacking Russia's oil and gas sectors with drone attacks. They know that Russia doesn't care about dead troops, just whether the oligarchs make more money if the troops stay than if they leave. And don't forget there's a lot of oligarchs making money off arms manufacturing. It's not like the oligarchs ever made money from tourism.

This is correct, but just for a twist;
The exact same applies to American oligarchs; Where has Europe got it's gas? The US(and others but stick with me), Who's making money off Ukranian arms aid? US arms companies(aka oligarchs)

You see where the inclination to keep this war going is from? A profitable business is war

There's like a hundred Catch 22 quotes I could put here, people should just read it

 

[barreness]

Every major nation in the world has Neo Nazis. We even have guys in point cook proudly pledging their allegiance to Hitler. Are they Nazis ? Yes. Is Australia a Nazi nation? Absolutely not. This is exactly the same for Ukraine.

Well we do have a white nationalist segment of society, It's why many people think Howard and his push in this direction was abominable. Australia is a deeply racist nation and you can see it all the time with the right wing's thought bubbles

Are we Nazi's? Nah, don't have the massacres and worshipping of the people that commanded those genocides. This is not counting Indigenous massacres which we definitely do have and also statues of those people, colonialism is generally separated from fascism though. Both obvious crimes

This happens with Stalin in Russia and you don't have a problem with it.

Keep repeating this and it might come true, a non aggression pact is not collaboration. Years of trying to form an alliance with the French and English was rejected because threatening capital is the worst crime

Slava Ukraina is not a fascist salute at all, yet more lies you are amplifying. It comes from Taras Shevhecnko, famous Ukranian poet and is generally used as a form of resistance to aggressive actions from foreign fascist states.

And also by Fascist nazi puppet states, I'd probably pick another saying ya know

Look it clearly didn't start as that, but it was used heavily by Ukrainian nationalists that were fascists, and those are the statues that are worshipped by the Ukrainian nationalists today

According to press reports, during the trials of OUN members after the assassination of Bronisław Pieracki, the accused performed fascist-style salutes to the words "Glory to Ukraine!"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slava_Ukraini

For once, you get something right about Russia.

I mean kinda, you'd be hard pressed to call United Russia liberal but as the economy has liberalised they tend fascist. Similar in Ukraine

 

[barreness]

Barreness, you're seriously all over the place mate.

You act all offended when you are labelled pro Russian and you try to push a bullshit narrative that you are just some peacenik that desperately wants the killing and the loss of life to end, hence why you want Ukraine to capitulate...and then you go repeating the "nazis" and "suppression of Russian language" and all the other bullshit justifications used by Russia when you yourself have also previously said all of that is total bullshit and that it all comes down to land-bridge to Crimea and stealing resource rich and productive lands, and extending sphere of influence.

Huge amount of your previous posts betray you, we see you for who you are, so stop insulting our intelligence and quit the charade and the faux outrage at "being labelled pro-Russian just because you are not 100% pro-Ukraine". You are labelled pro-Russian because all of your posting are pro-Russian, with the exception of where it is pointed out how pro-Russian you are which is when you do your "not pro-Russian, just a realist that wants peace, but [insert pro-Russian narrative]" routine.

Not a pacifist, it's unrealistic unfortunately.

The reason I suggest a peace deal is to minimise casualties overall, including this escalating to a nuclear conflict. For obvious reasons I've gone through this requires Ukraine ceding territory because Russian won't(just how power works)

Ukraine is far from a perfect state and has gone right wing with various; suppression of Russian culture/language(particularly since maidan), incredibly restrictive drafting/immigration policy, promoting/integrating actual nazi units, suppression of leftist forces(and Russian associated orthodox religions). It's not a hanging offence for a country being invaded but we have to be real about it.

For some reason(I know it's because of the constant propaganda) you guys don't understand that Russia considers Ukraine as part of their 'sphere of influence'(it used to be called little russia, to go with white russia, then it was changed to Ukraine which means borderlands(of what I wonder?))

The US backed certain candidates in the Maidan revolution and got them installed, Ukraines neutrality was compromised and CIA bases were installed along the Russian border. Russia took this as an act of war; annexed Crimea, funded and armed revolutionary groups in the east. The misnk agreements were violated(by both sides), Ukraine took the time to build up their troops to defend the eventual Russian invasion if they didn't cede back into the Russian sphere. Hence 2022, and here we are, millions displaced, hundreds of thousands of soldiers killed and for what purpose?

 

[barreness]

There is no bind here. Putin has placed the Russian economy on a war footing. This is because his fruitless invasion of Ukraine, which is fascist in every way, has resulted in Russia's main source of wealth, natural resource income, being obliterated. Putin could choose to withdraw completely from Ukraine and reintegrate Russia into world markets, stop it becoming even more of a pariah state. The reasons he does not and continues with a war that ultimately weakens the sovereignty of Russia is simply down to the fact that he is prepared to pursue his fascist ideology of a new "Great" Russian empire to the very end.

For once, you get something right. It makes sense for Putin to withdraw completely from Ukraine in order to restore Russia's place on the world stage and prevent the destruction of its economy.

This is the most obvious course of action right now that protects the interests of Russia.

Cool, war it is until Ukraine collapses, I hope you'll be happy with the results

 

[barreness]

Poltava was one of the largest civilian slaughters to date. Seriously horrific.

Hard to call it this given it's a signals training facility, pretty explicitly military. Bloody brutal nonetheless

One of the buildings of the [Military] Institute of Communications was partially destroyed. People found themselves under the rubble. Many were saved,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024...1-killed-in-russian-missile-strike-on-poltava

 

[Mobbs]

Hard to call it this given it's a signals training facility, pretty explicitly military. Bloody brutal nonetheless

One of the buildings of the [Military] Institute of Communications was partially destroyed. People found themselves under the rubble. Many were saved,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024...1-killed-in-russian-missile-strike-on-poltava

Yes I conflated it with the Sumy attack - in back of head read the casualties from one and the target from the other.

 

[Mobbs]

For some reason(I know it's because of the constant propaganda) you guys don't understand that Russia considers Ukraine as part of their 'sphere of influence'(it used to be called little russia, to go with white russia, then it was changed to Ukraine which means borderlands(of what I wonder?))

On this, I don't think anybody fails to notice Russia consider Ukraine part of its sphere of influence. The disagreement is on whether or not Russia thinks something, makes it right.

And on the naming conventions. Ukraine was actually not called Little Russia, it was simply called Russia. Russia, on the other hand was called Muskovy. Again, "Little Russia" was a name applied only by Russia, and again, Russia saying something, doesn't make it so.

I remember a Richmond Reserves player once calling me "dickhead ****wit" during a game (when there used to be reserves), because I asked him if he was a natural blond. Does this mean someone had to edit the records in the Registry of Births, Deaths & Marriages? Or does it mean someone created a label for their own purposes?
Ukraine or Vkraina if us dickhead ****wits choose to get it right is a combo of V and KRAINA which translates to "In Country", and is an organic change of name by people within Ukraine, not Moscovites outside Ukraine. Nobody anywhere can agree on where this name was developed, or who suggested it, actually nobody seems to know.

Notice how in we can take the same definitions and read it different ways. "Borderlands" isn't really wrong, it's just how you choose to read it - not the borderlands of another region, but the region, up to its borders. The name is otherwise often thought to simply represent a word for "territory", kind of like if you look around you pointing and saying "this area" and someone else says "Oh is that the name for this place?"

Then this (again and again and again and again):

The US backed certain candidates in the Maidan revolution and got them installed, Ukraines neutrality was compromised and CIA bases were installed along the Russian border. Russia took this as an act of war; annexed Crimea, funded and armed revolutionary groups in the east. The misnk agreements were violated(by both sides), Ukraine took the time to build up their troops to defend the eventual Russian invasion if they didn't cede back into the Russian sphere. Hence 2022, and here we are, millions displaced, hundreds of thousands of soldiers killed and for what purpose?

So, how do you back candidates in a revolution? I'm guessing you mean candidates in an election process that was necessary subsequent to the results of a vacancy developing in correlation with a revolution.
There's no intallation, and in backing a candidate - yeah I'd back the one I didn't know was a monster, too..

Then you went off on a bit of a woo tangent with CIA bases ... I remember when Russia made this accusation, and the question in response was "bases near the border? really? where?" and Russia shut their whore mouth within nanoseconds.

And all for what purpose? Well nobody can agree entirely, but it might be a bit of each : Russian imperialism, resource plundering, land bridges, soviet nostalgia, the silovici pockets, perhaps even literally believing their own rhetoric re biolabs and nazism and Russkiy Mir - Dugin states Russkiy Mir is necessary for the survival of Russia.

 

[Mobbs]

Can't share tge link when out of the home, but images have surfaced from the Lviv attack, where an image of a husband and wife, and three young daughters is captioned to explain how now only the dad lives.

Pure genocide. Pure terrorism.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Saint]

It's a take which has been proven throughout history, the centre will side with fascists when the going gets tough rather than side with socialists.

Macron doing a good job of denying election results at the moment.
Social democrats in germany refusing a coalition with the commies allowing a nazi take over.

The interests of liberals are the interests of capital, they'll put up a good facade but when it comes to it, good luck disenfranchised peoples

So accept higher energy prices? just because the inflation figure goes down it doesn't mean energy prices aren't permanently higher

This is correct, but just for a twist;
The exact same applies to American oligarchs; Where has Europe got it's gas? The US(and others but stick with me), Who's making money off Ukranian arms aid? US arms companies(aka oligarchs)

You see where the inclination to keep this war going is from? A profitable business is war

There's like a hundred Catch 22 quotes I could put here, people should just read it

The Ukrainian people could have sided with fascism and let the Russians take over, but instead chose to fight. The Russian state is far more capitalist and fascist than any other in the region, except maybe Hungary.

Energy diversification which has happened (and is further planned) will counter-balance the lack of Russian energy supplies.

Ukraine's supplies of arms are not the ones making the choice to continue the conflict. Russia's leaders have a direct conflict of interest in profiting from the war. It's not the Ukrainians making the profits off the arms they use to defend themselves.

In every war, profiteers make profits on both sides. It doesn't mean you just shrug and can't figure out which side is the aggressor. Russia is the aggressor and they're driven by the profits of those who make the decisions. This is not true for Ukraine.

 

[Zidane98]

Cool, war it is until Ukraine collapses, I hope you'll be happy with the results

Quite telling you don't choose Putin withdrawing from Ukraine completely, doing a deal with Europe to be a trading partner and guaranteeing Russia's sovereignty as an option.

This is exactly Putin's schtick and effectively is condemning Russia and its people to 1 million plus casualties and a life of long term misery. All because Putin and people like yourself simply cannot accept that Ukraine does not want to be subjugated by Russia any longer.

 

[Visions]

Just on cruise missile this illustrates the need for Ukraine to be supplied these. If every Russian military asset within this range was perennially at risk of Ukraine cruise missile attack eventually Russia would eventually realise keeping up the invasion is simply not worth it.

Problem is it wouldn't really matter as Russia would just pull their assets further away, exactly like they have been doing up until now being one step ahead at all times.

That's because of the idiotic stance of the Biden administration not allowing targets to be hit inside Russia with ATACMS, so Russia knows it just has to be out of artillery/MLRS range. If Harris ends up getting up in the election, it will be more of the same rhetoric from her.

If by some miracle, the US halted their ineptness handling of the situation and allowed long range missiles, then Russia would have enough warning to clear the areas of assets and pull further back anyhow.

 

[Zidane98]

Keep repeating this and it might come true, a non aggression pact is not collaboration. Years of trying to form an alliance with the French and English was rejected because threatening capital is the worst crime

What absolute nonsense. Roosevelt explicitly told Stalin that any treaty with the Nazis would be futile and result in the Nazis turning on him. This wasn't fully exposed until post USSR collapse, for obvious reasons.

The Nazis & Stalin also had a secret agreement on the division of Europe into 2 between the Nazis and the USSR who were supposed to be allies post war.

The only reason this didn't happen was just as Roosevelt predicted the Nazis double crossing Stalin and making a play for USSR which ironically was only possible because Stalin let Hitler have Poland.

Stalin was a collaborator for sure with Hitler, the two planned to dominate Europe long after WW2 ended in victory for them.

It was only the largest ever lend lease program ever that allowed the USSR to fight off the double crossing former ally of Stalin the Nazis.

 

[Zidane98]

Problem is it wouldn't really matter as Russia would just pull their assets further away, exactly like they have been doing up until now being one step ahead at all times.

That's because of the idiotic stance of the Biden administration not allowing targets to be hit inside Russia with ATACMS, so Russia knows it just has to be out of artillery/MLRS range. If Harris ends up getting up in the election, it will be more of the same rhetoric from her.

If by some miracle, the US halted their ineptness handling of the situation and allowed long range missiles, then Russia would have enough warning to clear the areas of assets and pull further back anyhow.

Good point although a situation where any Russian military asset within Ukranian territory is subjected to constant bombardment would eventually long term make occupation untenable for Putin.

 

[Cap]

Que? It's a pretty common saying. If you'd asked or seen any of my other political posting you'd know I'm some breed of socialist

its just a lazy line though, I'm suprised you'd bother

 

[Zidane98]

Russian shadow oil tanker fleet banned from Danish ports




The next step is surely banning of any vessel operating dark through the Danish straits.


A big blow to Russian efforts in avoiding sanctions on trading oil covertly.

 

[Andre]

Problem is it wouldn't really matter as Russia would just pull their assets further away, exactly like they have been doing up until now being one step ahead at all times.

That's because of the idiotic stance of the Biden administration not allowing targets to be hit inside Russia with ATACMS, so Russia knows it just has to be out of artillery/MLRS range. If Harris ends up getting up in the election, it will be more of the same rhetoric from her.

If by some miracle, the US halted their ineptness handling of the situation and allowed long range missiles, then Russia would have enough warning to clear the areas of assets and pull further back anyhow.

It'd make a big difference. They are then launching planes from much further away, giving more warning time for intercepting missiles. More importantly, with planes withdrawn the Ukrainians could get their own planes up in the air near/over frontlines to hit Russians, knowing they'd have warning time to withdraw if Russians launch a response from much further away. That's just planes. Withdrawing storage sites further away increasing logistics tails gives more options to hit supplies being moved to the front. There's lots of benefits to increasing how far back Russia can attack from.

 

[Andre]

Trouble is the West cannot afford to give a lot of its best to Ukraine when Putins mate is escalating his aggressive and irrational behaviour to the neighbouring small democracies.

On SM-A136B using BigFooty.com mobile app

This I disagree with. China isn't ready just yet to attack Taiwan. Removing Russia from the board now, by supplying Ukraine with long range missiles gets towards a situation where if China DOES want to invade Taiwan it's US + Europe standing against them, rather than European countries worried about Russia still being a credible threat to them. Which obviously provides China with a greater deterrent from invading and reduced odds of success if they do.

 

[Seeds]

The Ukrainian people could have sided with fascism and let the Russians take over, but instead chose to fight. The Russian state is far more capitalist and fascist than any other in the region, except maybe Hungary.

Energy diversification which has happened (and is further planned) will counter-balance the lack of Russian energy supplies.

Ukraine's supplies of arms are not the ones making the choice to continue the conflict. Russia's leaders have a direct conflict of interest in profiting from the war. It's not the Ukrainians making the profits off the arms they use to defend themselves.

In every war, profiteers make profits on both sides. It doesn't mean you just shrug and can't figure out which side is the aggressor. Russia is the aggressor and they're driven by the profits of those who make the decisions. This is not true for Ukraine.

The russian war has nothing to do with capitalism and profits. Many of the oligarchs have lost fortunes as a result of the russian war. Their assets all frozen in the west. They were all deeply against the war.

The russian war is about nationalism and conquest.

 

[Zidane98]