Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Andre]

Unless he does mass mobilisation it's a meaningless decree. Albanese could declare today he wants Australia to have an army of a million, but short of a draft it would be impossible. Russia's demographic issues are only shrinking the pool of men in the wanted age over time. This is not a real plan, IMO, anyway, more another attempt to scare the West. If it is an actual plan, then it's just going to further draw workers out of a shrinking workforce, driving interest rates and wages up further, accelerating depletion of currency reserves and trashing of the economy.

 

[wannabejack]

Estonian President Karis: We have to cross all ‘red lines,’ then start forcing Russia out of Ukraine

Estonian President Alar Karis is very diplomatic. His country of 1.3 million people borders Russia, while the ongoing messy election campaign in Washington, D.C. forces European diplomats to question whether the U.S. will help countries like Estonia in case of a direct confrontation with...

kyivindependent.com

Estonian President Alar Karis
“We probably realize now that we have to cross all of these red lines and then start forcing Russia out of Ukraine,” Karis told the Kyiv Independent…

On russian drones hitting countries not far from Ukraine
Alar Karis: We are in a very simple position, we should lift the restrictions on the use of weapons that Ukraine gets from the Western world so we can target these drones where they start (on Russian territory). When this happens, the drones never reach Ukraine, Latvia, or any other country.

On escalation
Alar Karis: One thing is probably that some countries and some leaders are afraid of escalation. There is no escalation anymore. Russia has crossed all red lines already. There is no point in being afraid of escalation. These restrictions are just pointless.

On russia using nuclear weapons
Alar Karis: Russia knows very well that it's not the only nuclear power in Europe and in the world. I don't think we are going to test a nuclear attack on any country.

 

[jatz14]

Estonian President Karis: We have to cross all ‘red lines,’ then start forcing Russia out of Ukraine

Estonian President Alar Karis is very diplomatic. His country of 1.3 million people borders Russia, while the ongoing messy election campaign in Washington, D.C. forces European diplomats to question whether the U.S. will help countries like Estonia in case of a direct confrontation with...

kyivindependent.com

Estonian President Alar Karis
“We probably realize now that we have to cross all of these red lines and then start forcing Russia out of Ukraine,” Karis told the Kyiv Independent…

On russian drones hitting countries not far from Ukraine
Alar Karis: We are in a very simple position, we should lift the restrictions on the use of weapons that Ukraine gets from the Western world so we can target these drones where they start (on Russian territory). When this happens, the drones never reach Ukraine, Latvia, or any other country.

On escalation
Alar Karis: One thing is probably that some countries and some leaders are afraid of escalation. There is no escalation anymore. Russia has crossed all red lines already. There is no point in being afraid of escalation. These restrictions are just pointless.

On russia using nuclear weapons
Alar Karis: Russia knows very well that it's not the only nuclear power in Europe and in the world. I don't think we are going to test a nuclear attack on any country.

Russia with its red line isnt showing us the point at which the West should be afraid, its showing us the point at which its afraid. They state it as, Do not do this or else, but what it means is, Please do not do this.

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Mobbs]

Timely reminders in this old video:

 

[Visions]

In 1990, Iraq had the 4th largest army in the world with over 1.5 million combatants, 5000 tanks, 3000 artillery pieces and 700 military aircraft.

Didn’t do them any good.

 

[Crankyhawk]

a) Pathetic. You want to discount his arguments because his grammar doesn't meet your lofty expectations??
b) He is correct. Russia did wish to join NATO. Yeltsin floated the hope, as did Putin.
The Russian ruling elite emerged like a Mafia by dismantling and stealing the nationalised property of the former Soviet Union.
These parasitic morons believed that they could seamlessly join the fraternity of US/NATO imperialism.
They didn;t realise that imperialism is the same as the Predator, and for the imperialists, the resources and wealth of the ex Soviet Union was their prey.
The imperialists rebuffed any idea of Russia joining NATO because Russia was their next target.

Well done Petrie. I admire your strength. Keep up your efforts against these ignoramuses whose only argument against you is that your punctuation doesn't match their irrelevant standards.

You ignored the bit where these supposed Russian citizens in Donbas were actually Russian soldiers. Similar to the litttle green men stunt in crimea.

 

[IlovethePies]

Tankies will never change, in 1956 it was "Stalin is alright mate, its us that is evil", in 2024 replace Stalin with Putin. The thing about Tankies is they are self hating losers. This projection of that self hate onto "The Evil West" is their coping method for how pathetic they are.

What a ridiculous post.

 

[IlovethePies]

the largest military, with the longest, sharpest sticks and best rocks?

communism means sharing your ak between 2 people

A suitably dumb post

 

[IlovethePies]

The biggest red line (the 30th or so in succession) was crossed when Western tanks invaded Russia proper in Kursk, and American HIMARS were fired on Russian towns, along with F16 jets firing missiles at Russian locations in Russia itself.

Striking at the heart of Russian imperialism, the biggest slap in the face for the pride of a nation, you would think would illicit the strongest response imaginable. Yet despite the mother country being under attack for the first time since WW2, Putin instead of destroying the world went into hiding instead as far away from Moscow as possible.



Cool story bro, any evidence to back that up? Or is it just the vibe?


As you said, they have crossed every red line and WWIII hasn’t started, because those red lines are absolute BS. Ain’t going to change now.

Do you understand the mathematics of probabilty?
The probabilty that Putin will not start WW3 given that he has not yet is non zero.
The fact that it is non-zero should scare the sh** out of any person who has some kind of intelligence/humanity.

 

[IlovethePies]

It'll explode on launch, level a city and Putin will claim illuminati / NATO agents were responsible afterwards.

It is sad that your level of discussion is so low.

 

[IlovethePies]

Or have another vodka.

Sounds like a racist stereotype.

 

[Mobbs]

Do you understand the mathematics of probabilty?
The probabilty that Putin will not start WW3 given that he has not yet is non zero.
The fact that it is non-zero should scare the sh** out of any person who has some kind of intelligence/humanity.

The probability that I will start WW3 is non zero.

Do you know what scares the shit out of me? That there are people in this world who reckon the actual established wholesale, rape slaughter and indoctrination of an entire people is absolutely worthwhile if it means the unlikely "nonzero" off chance possibility that a nuclear winter might not occur.

Paying for individual safety NIMBY style with the blood of innocent people is heinous. Bit of a nerve for a species like us to make such a heinous equivocation. WW3 is probably too good for us.

 

[Mobbs]

Let's not forget when Simonyan wanted Russia to nuke Siberia.

Kremlin shuts down suggestion to "nuke Siberia"

The Kremlin has rejected a call from one of Vladimir Putin's leading propagandists to detonate a nuclear weapon over Siberia to demonstrate Russia's strength.

www.newsweek.com

From the article:
Anatoly Lokot, mayor of Novosibirsk in southern Siberia, said: "As a physicist by training, I will comment. There is nothing good about ground-based thermonuclear explosions. The consequences may affect not even hundreds of years but millennia. Because unstable elements are formed, the half-life of which is hundreds of years, and some even a thousand years.
(Novosibirsk roads are so poorly maintained the city generally already looks as though its in a nuclear winter. But it's the largest of Siberian cities and commonly they go to "Sibcago" to cite officials to represent siberian opinion)

Well now here we are again:
Russian nuclear test chief says Moscow is ready to resume testing 'at any moment'

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-nuclear-test-chief-says-moscow-is-ready-resume-testing-at-any-moment-2024-09-17/

The nature of the RF's nuclear threat is the very tried and tested - in fact the frontline deployment of nuclear threat - of "we could if we wanted to". This threat is the true weapon.

 

[Mobbs]

Very interesting continued pogression of drone v drone tech. This Russian drone takes out a Ukrainian drone, yet the camera feed somehow remains active for the aftermath. Not only is the RF drone still seemingly operational and filming after the collect, it still seems to be responding to it's task list, searching for the Ukrainian drone as it tumbled away. (Dunno if manual or auto)
View attachment IMG_5349.MP4

 

[Mobbs]

POW Interview from RF soldiers praising the captors for their cleverness performing this operation.

This from the Azov youtube channel, a fully recorded interaction between RF and Ukrainian forces (subtitles are very clear in the CC):

Three Russian soldiers met fighters near their positions who introduced themselves as an "airborne reconnaissance team". But to the surprise of the Russians, the strangers were not who they said they were. The Azov fighters carried out a complex operation and "invited" the unsuspecting Russian soldiers to surrender.

The camera of a fighter of the 12th Special Forces Brigade Azov recorded the entire conversation with the Russians. The latter commented on this story in captivity, where they are guaranteed safety of life and health.



Unsure of when it happened, could have been yonks ago because such footage is rarely released until time passes, due to OpSec.

Truly stunning.

 

[Jamolad]

Unusual thing to do if they see themselves holding that area post-war. I get they are not retreating (yet?) but that is more like Sadam's forces setting fire to Kuwait oil wells on their way out.

 

[Zidane98]

Sounds like a racist stereotype.

You need another vodka with that sort of posting.

 

[Johnny_Dogg4]

 

[Visions]

It is sad that your level of discussion is so low.

Says the person who comes up with following in depth commentary as a reply to others…..

What a ridiculous post.

A suitably dumb post

 

[jatz14]

Do you understand the mathematics of probabilty?
The probabilty that Putin will not start WW3 given that he has not yet is non zero.
The fact that it is non-zero should scare the sh** out of any person who has some kind of intelligence/humanity.

It's not zero in any war Putin starts. So just hand hm victory in all wars? Stand back and watch him everyone, who have to give up because the chance of nukes is not zero?

The chance of the US using nukes because of Ukraine is really small, but it isn't zero. Yet, I don't see Putin giving up.

I think you are very much advocating a Refuse to risk nukes when the risk is small, and therefore make their use a certainty, policy.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Andre]

Do you understand the mathematics of probabilty?
The probabilty that Putin will not start WW3 given that he has not yet is non zero.
The fact that it is non-zero should scare the sh** out of any person who has some kind of intelligence/humanity.

With this logic any country that has a nuclear weapon can demand (and expect the world to demand they hand over) anything from any country without nukes, unless they are in an alliance with a nuclear umbrella element (NATO, ANZUS etc.). Nukes are for countries to prevent existential threats to a state. There's no existential threat to Russia. If they left Ukraine tomorrow, Ukraine would leave Russia and NATO wouldn't suddenly try to invade Moscow.

 

[Baldur]

It's not zero in any war Putin starts. So just hand hm victory in all wars? Stand back and watch him everyone, who have to give up because the chance of nukes is not zero?

The chance of the US using nukes because of Ukraine is really small, but it isn't zero. Yet, I don't see Putin giving up.

I think you are very much advocating a Refuse to risk nukes when the risk is small, and therefore make their use a certainty, policy.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

I agree, giving in to blackmail only makes more blackmail certain. Once blackmail becomes the aggressors tried and proven method, they cannot afford to have their bluff called, so what was a first a bluff becomes real.

Giving in to nuclear blackmail makes the use of nuclear weapons in the future all but certain when the aggressor demands something that will not be given.

Putin will not use nukes on any western target, he does not want to commit suicide. A limited single strike with a tactical warhead on troop buildup is possible but very unlikely.

Putin may if very desperate take such a gamble, hoping to gain victory before everything falls apart around him. In my opinion, he will not, even if he did, its more likely than not his generals will kill him instead. In any event, it would not lead to WWIII but would almost certainly result in China & India joining sanctions.

 

[Andre]

I agree, giving in to blackmail only makes more blackmail certain. Once blackmail becomes the aggressors tried and proven method, they cannot afford to have their bluff called, so what was a first a bluff becomes real.

Giving in to nuclear blackmail makes the use of nuclear weapons in the future all but certain when the aggressor demands something that will not be given.

Putin will not use nukes on any western target, he does not want to commit suicide. A limited single strike with a tactical warhead on troop buildup is possible but very unlikely.

Putin may if very desperate take such a gamble, hoping to gain victory before everything falls apart around him. In my opinion, he will not, even if he did, its more likely than not his generals will kill him instead. In any event, it would not lead to WWIII but would almost certainly result in China & India joining sanctions.

The reason Putin even invaded Ukraine (fully) is because the West had already given into blackmail in the past. The lack of any real punishment for Georgia. Obama with his Syrian red lines that then weren't, the weak sanctions from him over Crimea (that weren't made any stronger by Trump). Putin and Russia have played a weak hand the only way it can be - bluff and blackmail. That only works as long as their opponent lets them do it though. The West has mostly stopped, but still is too fearful (especially Olaf & Jake Sullivan, they probably have matching night lights they keep on permanently).

 

[dumb]

A suitably dumb post

i was being kind of facetious, yeah. mostly as a comment toward numerous reports of infantry not having any weapons when they're supposed to be attacking ukraine. maybe their buddies in the middle east will help them out.