Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[modul8]

History will be damning of Zelensky, Biden and Boris Johnson. The fact that there was a peace deal on the table and they didn't take it is a damning miscalculation. Now Russia has lost too much and can't back down. Has been one of the more of the more senseless conflicts of modern history, but will end up the same 'what was the fking point?' basket as Iraq and Vietnam.

But not putin? Really?

 

[Baldur]

Revealed: Russia anticipated Kursk incursion months in advance, seized papers show

Exclusive: Documents contain months of warnings about possible Ukrainian advance and also reveal concerns about morale

www.theguardian.com

The Russians knew the attack would happen, but still fell apart like a house of cards.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

History will be damning of Zelensky, Biden and Boris Johnson. The fact that there was a peace deal on the table and they didn't take it is a damning miscalculation. Now Russia has lost too much and can't back down. Has been one of the more of the more senseless conflicts of modern history, but will end up the same 'what was the fking point?' basket as Iraq and Vietnam.

Yep, like history is so damning of Winston Churchill, but holds Neville Chamberlain in so much high regard.

Spare me.

 

[Venkman]

Yep, like history is so damning of Winston Churchill, but holds Neville Chamberlain in so much high regard.

Spare me.

It essentially comes down to results. Churchill had the advantage of taking power when England was on the ropes and 'stay the course' became the only option, but even he was largely discredited at that point due the losing hand he played in Turkey. Chamberlain should have read the room better, but it's not analogous to Ukraine. Both Trump and Obama had no interest in Ukraine and weirdly during their time there was a) no war and b) Putin didn't seem to be a threat to rampage across Europe.

 

[Venkman]

But not putin? Really?

Look probably, but it will depend on the net result. If you are going to send 100s of thousands to their deaths you need to get what you want, it's why he won't back down now. If Ukraine folds he will say he held off western military expansion etc. At which point it will come down to who is writing the books.

 

[Mobbs]

There are reports of explosions at Yeysk, but only sly references. Haven't found imagery or verified reports yet. Yeysk is across the Azov Sea from Mariupol. It is home to a military airfield, but is also a manageably short distance from Mairupol for the transport of resources. Yeysk's airbase was hit at least once prior, in June this year.
The following video is circulating but don't know if it's the same reported event. Simply claims its somewhere in Rostov oblast.
View attachment IMG_8271.mp4

~ ~ ~

A bridge in Samara damaged by explosion - seems to be the work of a saboteur. However, the explosion barely scratched the surface and the rail and structure still seem fully intact.
View attachment IMG_9204.MP4

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Image of Vuhledar of recent. The town, like most others Russia can get within fire control of, is wiped from the face of the Earth. (video compressed for BF limitations)
View attachment IMG_9200.mp4

~ ~ ~

Russians try to surrender and are pummelled by their own artillery for their audacity. (video compressed for BF limitations)
View attachment IMG_2892.mp4

~ ~ ~

A representative FSB hockey team get attacked by their opposing team. Charges, not fines, are laid.
View attachment IMG_9203.MP4

~ ~ ~

DeepState expose criminally underprepared Ukrainian defensive trenchlines in the Pokrovsk axis, highlighting among other fails the rolls of barbed wire that are left undeployed.

 

[wannabejack]

History will be damning of Zelensky, Biden and Boris Johnson. The fact that there was a peace deal on the table and they didn't take it is a damning miscalculation. Now Russia has lost too much and can't back down. Has been one of the more of the more senseless conflicts of modern history, but will end up the same 'what was the fking point?' basket as Iraq and Vietnam.

Put(in) your trust in russia. (excuse the pun)

Chechnya.
May 1997 peace treaty.
By the autumn of 1999, Russian troops were back in Chechnya.

 

[wannabejack]

Look probably, but it will depend on the net result. If you are going to send 100s of thousands to their deaths you need to get what you want, it's why he won't back down now. If Ukraine folds he will say he held off western military expansion etc. At which point it will come down to who is writing the books.

Putin always wanted Ukraine as part of russia or at the least a puppet state. “It's why he won't back down” or wouldn’t back down even if a treaty was signed.

 

[Mobbs]

"Pointless conflict" is a weird assertion to me, but it's probably just a loaded term to politicise "avoidable conflict".

Whether Putin is being territorial, genocidal, fascist or security minded ... or if he's following the idealogical whispers of Dugin and/or silovici puppetmasters ... or if the RF/RF crony narratives of NATO expansion or whatever the **** else they try to claim were true, these "reasons" are not a pinch less point-driven than pretty much any other conflict.

Can call it avoidable, ill-advised or destined for tragic consequences. But pointless? Can't see it.

Although semantically the natural laws of the universe actually make "pointless" impossible, so I have to read "pointless" as "avoidable" when someone claims it.

The only thing truly pointless, is ... probably ... my post right now.

 

[Baldur]

History will be damning of Zelensky, Biden and Boris Johnson. The fact that there was a peace deal on the table and they didn't take it is a damning miscalculation. Now Russia has lost too much and can't back down. Has been one of the more of the more senseless conflicts of modern history, but will end up the same 'what was the fking point?' basket as Iraq and Vietnam.

“It’s all your fault, if you would just submit to my demands, I would not be forced to do this.”

 

[Zidane98]

Putin always wanted Ukraine as part of russia or at the least a puppet state. “It's why he won't back down” or wouldn’t back down even if a treaty was signed.

Yep. He can't be reasoned with. As long as he or his cronies are in charge they are always likely to regroup and attack Ukraine again even if they were to withdraw completely from Ukraine this time round.

Ukraine would sign on the dotted line right now if a new Russian government was prepared to fully withdraw from Ukraine and guarantee Ukranian sovereignty in exchange for Ukraine signing up only as a member partner with NATO (this was Russia btw until 2020) instead of a full member for at least the next 10 years.


Putin & his gang of fascists won't sign this deal as the only acceptable outcome to them is Ukraine being a puppet state run by Putin's puppets or Ukraine being taken over fully by Russia. Which is nuts because the people of Ukraine are never, ever going to accept this. It looks like Putin is willing to kill up to nearly 1 million of his countryment to realise a dream that is simply delusional and rooted in the USSR era.

 

[Venkman]

Putin always wanted Ukraine as part of russia or at the least a puppet state. “It's why he won't back down” or wouldn’t back down even if a treaty was signed.

I think puppet state is right, or at least not in NATO. He won't back down now because they've lost too much. One way or the other it's now Russian regime change or victory.

 

[Venkman]

"Pointless conflict" is a weird assertion to me, but it's probably just a loaded term to politicise "avoidable conflict".

Whether Putin is being territorial, genocidal, fascist or security minded ... or if he's following the idealogical whispers of Dugin and/or silovici puppetmasters ... or if the RF/RF crony narratives of NATO expansion or whatever the **** else they try to claim were true, these "reasons" are not a pinch less point-driven than pretty much any other conflict.

Can call it avoidable, ill-advised or destined for tragic consequences. But pointless? Can't see it.

Although semantically the natural laws of the universe actually make "pointless" impossible, so I have to read "pointless" as "avoidable" when someone claims it.

The only thing truly pointless, is ... probably ... my post right now.

Interesting take. I guess I see pointless and avoidable as being interchangeable. To me the metric would be if I sitting at home looking at a photo of one of my children knowing that they had sacrificed their lives, do I think it was worth something. Probably stopping the spread of Fascism in WW2 does, but not the vague assertions of domino theory in South East Asia. I see most post ww2 US conflicts as pointless given that they don't even achieve the desired geopolitical goals that they profess to achieve. At the end of the daythe US is growing tired of its commitment to Ukraine as the reality of the thing has become evident, it's certainly one political result from withdrawal. I get the semantics.... Ill fated....certainly that. I guess I'm closer to a realist like Meershiemer in which you can justify how you want but the actual practicality of the thing made it a losing bet. But, hey, Putin could be taken out tomorrow and Russia could fold like a cheap tent, Ukraine could enter NATO and the US slices off a chunk of former USSR state for it's strategic objectives. Stranger things have happened.

 

[Mobbs]

Interesting take. I guess I see pointless and avoidable as being interchangeable. To me the metric would be if I sitting at home looking at a photo of one of my children knowing that they had sacrificed their lives, do I think it was worth something. Probably stopping the spread of Fascism in WW2 does, but not the vague assertions of domino theory in South East Asia. I see most post ww2 US conflicts as pointless given that they don't even achieve the desired geopolitical goals that they profess to achieve. At the end of the daythe US is growing tired of its commitment to Ukraine as the reality of the thing has become evident, it's certainly one political result from withdrawal. I get the semantics.... Ill fated....certainly that. I guess I'm closer to a realist like Meershiemer in which you can justify how you want but the actual practicality of the thing made it a losing bet. But, hey, Putin could be taken out tomorrow and Russia could fold like a cheap tent, Ukraine could enter NATO and the US slices off a chunk of former USSR state for it's strategic objectives. Stranger things have happened.

Yep and I guess I'm closer to a realist too ... like how Ukrainian civilians are suffering every day because Putin is being a campaigner.

 

[CD Xbow]

"Pointless conflict" is a weird assertion to me, but it's probably just a loaded term to politicise "avoidable conflict".

Whether Putin is being territorial, genocidal, fascist or security minded ... or if he's following the idealogical whispers of Dugin and/or silovici puppetmasters ... or if the RF/RF crony narratives of NATO expansion or whatever the **** else they try to claim were true, these "reasons" are not a pinch less point-driven than pretty much any other conflict.

Can call it avoidable, ill-advised or destined for tragic consequences. But pointless? Can't see it.

Although semantically the natural laws of the universe actually make "pointless" impossible, so I have to read "pointless" as "avoidable" when someone claims it.

The only thing truly pointless, is ... probably ... my post right now.

Mobbs, I have to ask, do you support Brissie?
And a big thank you to CM86, I noted your good work.

 

[Smeg Head]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09...sia-attacked-north-eastern-hospital/104410720

Attacks like this abrogate 'Russia's right to exist any in form and anyone involved in any way with this sort of attack needs to be put out in a minefield and buzzed with drones until they are blown apart.

 

[Mobbs]

Mobbs, I have to ask, do you support Brissie?
And a big thank you to CM86, I noted your good work.

I don't follow Brissy but I do have a soft spot for them due to many old Fitzroy mates supporting them.
What's CM86? To me that's a site member who played one game for the fantasy Roys team many years back!

 

[wannabejack]

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4904188-us-russia-relations-helsinki-report/

The bipartisan committee charged with supporting democracy and human rights in post-Soviet states is pushing for the United States to dump the post-Cold War status quo in its relations with Russia and label Moscow as a “persistent” threat to global security.

These lawmakers are likely to embrace the report’s conclusions that “the United States must prepare for long-term contestation, understanding that Russia has a centuries-long history of violent imperialism toward its neighbors, Europe, and the world more broadly.”

They further argue that Putin is a disingenuous negotiator and any deal that concedes Ukrainian territory to Russia will embolden the Russian leader to relaunch an expansionist war in Ukraine, further pursue aggression in neighboring, post-Soviet states and potentially attack NATO member states in which Moscow is already carrying out hybrid-warfare.

The report wants to shift Washington’s thinking away from viewing Russia as a superpower and near-peer of the U.S. just because it holds nuclear weapons.

 

[CD Xbow]

I don't follow Brissy but I do have a soft spot for them due to many old Fitzroy mates supporting them.
What's CM86? To me that's a site member who played one game for the fantasy Roys team many years back!

CM86! Separate issue.
Would you believe CM86 is a rapidly fatal nerve gas? No, well, perhaps look above your current level.
I have a soft spot for them because of the Hawk connections.

 

[Venkman]

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4904188-us-russia-relations-helsinki-report/

The bipartisan committee charged with supporting democracy and human rights in post-Soviet states is pushing for the United States to dump the post-Cold War status quo in its relations with Russia and label Moscow as a “persistent” threat to global security.

These lawmakers are likely to embrace the report’s conclusions that “the United States must prepare for long-term contestation, understanding that Russia has a centuries-long history of violent imperialism toward its neighbors, Europe, and the world more broadly.”

They further argue that Putin is a disingenuous negotiator and any deal that concedes Ukrainian territory to Russia will embolden the Russian leader to relaunch an expansionist war in Ukraine, further pursue aggression in neighboring, post-Soviet states and potentially attack NATO member states in which Moscow is already carrying out hybrid-warfare.

The report wants to shift Washington’s thinking away from viewing Russia as a superpower and near-peer of the U.S. just because it holds nuclear weapons.

Pretty meaningless abstractions tbh. Putin is no more or less sincere than any other leader, you're not buying a used car. States make deals or negotiate based on their interests. It's in Putin's interest to negotiate, it's not in his interests to give Ukraine over to NATO. All states work the same way. Another question might be who makes money out of perpetual war?

 

[ferball]

So the millions/billions of people who despise any form of socialism (whether or not it actually is socialism, they've been conditioned to hate it) are just going to 'have their understanding expanded' and join in this revolution?

I honestly wish it could happen like that. Unfortunately, human nature tends towards the selfish, so what you've said will never happen, and any revolution would need to be backed by force and end up the same way as the French and Russian revolutions did: with lots and lots of innocent bloodshed.

I don't post much in this thread anymore but I don't think this is true. It takes alot of work to turn humans into self interested shit stains.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Interesting take. I guess I see pointless and avoidable as being interchangeable. To me the metric would be if I sitting at home looking at a photo of one of my children knowing that they had sacrificed their lives, do I think it was worth something. Probably stopping the spread of Fascism in WW2 does, but not the vague assertions of domino theory in South East Asia. I see most post ww2 US conflicts as pointless given that they don't even achieve the desired geopolitical goals that they profess to achieve. At the end of the daythe US is growing tired of its commitment to Ukraine as the reality of the thing has become evident, it's certainly one political result from withdrawal. I get the semantics.... Ill fated....certainly that. I guess I'm closer to a realist like Meershiemer in which you can justify how you want but the actual practicality of the thing made it a losing bet. But, hey, Putin could be taken out tomorrow and Russia could fold like a cheap tent, Ukraine could enter NATO and the US slices off a chunk of former USSR state for it's strategic objectives. Stranger things have happened.

Interesting you bring that up. I suspect that many of the Putin appeasers in here either do not have children, or have little capacity to visualise the threat that the evil of the invading and occupying Russian forces would bring upon them if their children were Ukrainian.

Would the prospect of their children being abducted and separated from family, bashed, tortured, r*ped, frozen, starved, experimented upon, and ultimately murdered by invading/occupying Russian forces change how much credence they put to "appeasement", or "nuclear threat"?

If that was what was in store for my children, like it was for the Jews in central Europe under the Nazi occupation, and most likely for Ukrainian children now at the hands of an invading Russian army, my concern over the very slight possibility of mutually assured destruction, existential threat and the end of humanity would be fairly negligible.

 

[Venkman]

Interesting you bring that up. I suspect that many of the Putin appeasers in here either do not have children, or have little capacity to visualise the threat that the evil of the invading and occupying Russian forces would bring upon them if their children were Ukrainian.

Would the prospect of their children being abducted and separated from family, bashed, tortured, r*ped, frozen, starved, experimented upon, and ultimately murdered by invading/occupying Russian forces change how much credence they put to "appeasement", or "nuclear threat"?

If that was what was in store for my children, like it was for the Jews in central Europe under the Nazi occupation, and most likely for Ukrainian children now at the hands of an invading Russian army, my concern over the very slight possibility of mutually assured destruction, existential threat and the end of humanity would be fairly negligible.

There's a massive extrapolation here that Putin = Hitler. The amount of civilian deaths in this war is around a 1/4 of Palestine which is not to justify anything. I'm not a Putin appeaser, just a realist - again I'd cite Meershiemer who argued that Ukraine should never have given over nukes initially due to the power imbalance but also that NATO should have backed off Ukraine due to the various warnings that were given and that it something that Russia wouldn't swallow. I do have children and wouldn't let them sign up for any imperialist war whether it was masterminded by Moscow, or Washington. The grubby fingers of the US neocons are all over this one - the same lunatics behind Iraq and Afghanistan. And for what? The power imbalance is such that Russia will grind it out and the yanks will lose interest. It's the same shit over and over. Rinse and repeat.

 

[Mobbs]

Kotlubany ammunition storage in Volgograd oblast, and Milerovo airfield on Rostov oblast, both struck in Ukrainian attacks.

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