Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Johnny_Dogg4]

 

[barreness]

Turns out long before the 2014 invasion Russia was already trying to steal / annex Ukranian territory.

Tuzla Island (now illegally occupied and used for Kerch bridge):

Illegal now that Ukraine cancelled all treaties with Russia, I thought you hated unilaterally ignoring treaties?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treat...e_Use_of_the_Sea_of_Azov_and_the_Kerch_Strait
The Treaty Between the Russian Federation and Ukraine on Cooperation in the Use of the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait is an agreement on sea and fisheries between Russia and Ukraine entered into force on 23 April 2004.[1][2] It was signed on 24 December 2003 by President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma and President of Russia Vladimir Putin[2] and ratified by both parliaments in April 2004.

The warning signs were there all along. This happened while Ukraine was effectively a vassal of Russia.

Interesting to see if a vatnik can defend this behaviour.

I think it's funny you find out a new bit of info about Ukr-Rus relations and you do the, hOw CoUlD ThEy

 

[barreness]

So they've allowed ATACSMS in Kursk, why they would use them there when they're losing territory in the donbas is hard to fathom. Another media piece to get you lads revved up right. Got bored of the F16's I guess

As I've said before, they'll allow strikes into Russia as the war becomes more dire for Ukraine, do they have any storm shadows left?

Not a great Manhattan if you're a fielding side


NYT article https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/31/world/europe/russia-gains-ukraine-maps.html

Archive link for those playing at home https://web.archive.org/web/2024111...1/world/europe/russia-gains-ukraine-maps.html

 

[barreness]

Well what do we have here? Russia negotiating an end to energy strikes! Someone's hurting from Russian oil refinery genocide....

Putin going from strength to strength eh barreness

I know I'm like 2 weeks late, sorry comrade, had to do my service in the trenches

Yeh this was a possible deal before the Ukraine kursk thing, abandoned after that, your twitter shitposts are weeks/months behind. Once again energy infrastructure has been hit in a lot of Ukrainian cities recently, cold winter coming up(climate change might save them). It would appear their air defence is failing, no AA is impenetrable tbf

The US also warned them against hitting oil infrastructure, much like they did with Israel against Iran(after Iran threatened to hit saudi production). Oil is a global commodity and the lifeblood of modern civilisation, any dip in production hits global prices in everything, democracy nor autocracy can afford it

 

[Mobbs]

Another shit effort from the USA - offering a pissy little borderline change to the "rules" on use of their resources, 1) restricted to one region 2) at least 18 months after the optimum time for Ukraine to use them and 3) with a massive figjam public announcement in place of a covert permission to enable maximum effect. This change is severely limited and I don't see it having a sufficient impact. Of course it IS something, and Ukraine are clever enough to work out the best way to use it.

It always feels like the USA surrendered ages ago and these inferior permissions are a political effort to pretend that they haven't.

Meanwhile the RF continue to strike every terrorism friendly target available. Zelensky was seen visiting Prokrovsk adjacent the front-line - the running joke on Telegram being that while it sounds like a leadership gotchah that he visits frontline towns while Putin hides in bunkers, the front is probably the safest place in Ukraine to be.

 

[barreness]

Russia had victory speeches prepared for all their state media outlets just 3 days after the invasion started. It talked of Ukraine gloriously rejoining the Russian empire which was going to become a superpower again.

It's all leaked

I don't disbelive they expected a quick victory ala Georgia, but source?

, Putin really did expect that Ukraine would fold within the week and that the residents of Ukraine were desperately wanting to be vatniks like yourself.

I think a lot of people/countries did. Which led to the later pumping of arms and now the predicament they find themselves, can't quit

Russia has been losing troops on a massive scale. Putin is doing everything he can to avoid conscription from where the elite that supports him resides. Now is calling on North Korean troops.

So he has avoided conscription right? Well they do have it, but 'legally not allowed outside russian soil'

This is not to say Russian losses haven't been massive, the 600k casualties number floating around recently wouldn't surprise me(200k dead, 400k wounded ish). In this war it's hard to see how Ukrainian casualties haven't been on a similar scale though.

Just from reading between the lines I'd say both armies were around 1mil engaged or resting at their peak, one side can manage that longer

And he can't even retake Kursk from Ukraine.

He can legally use conscripts there(and apparently North Koreans). It looks like a slow burn tbh, Ukraine is struggling to maintain it with(some reports i've heard) some of their best troops. Meanwhile the rest of the front, particuarly the Donbass is accelerating for Russia. Strategic error

The poster didn't say 500k would actually join. He said that Kim Jong or Putin wouldn't be particularly bothered to lose 500k troops which is probably accurate.

Don't disagree, they only care if the home front gets proper restless, like all countries

Russian troops who have surrendered / escaped talk of being sent to the front lines as cannon fodder. Threatened with execution if they did not continue to advance. Putin's using mass meat grinder tactics and it's horrific.

Yep, world war one with drones. You go first Zidane and I'll carry the spare mag /s. Not every battle is Stalingrad

As for NK troops there are millions of reservists ready to be forcibly conscripted in NK. Not like there's an option to escape for them unlike in Russia where 1 million of the smartest citizens fled Russia in knowledge of the hardship that was about to be inflicted on them by Putin's absolutely unjustified fruitless invasion of Ukraine.

It's nice they left their borders open. Shame to be a man in Ukraine trying to get out, apparently 10 million are displaced(in total, all people)

 

[barreness]

Another shit effort from the USA - offering a pissy little borderline change to the "rules" on use of their resources, 1) restricted to one region 2) at least 18 months after the optimum time for Ukraine to use them and 3) with a massive figjam public announcement in place of a covert permission to enable maximum effect. This change is severely limited and I don't see it having a sufficient impact. Of course it IS something, and Ukraine are clever enough to work out the best way to use it.

It always feels like the USA surrendered ages ago and these inferior permissions are a political effort to pretend that they haven't.

Does it ever get to the point when you think maybe the Ukrainians are being used to bleed Russia? Just enough weapons not to be overrun, never enough to turn the tide, never proper troops on the ground etc

I think this is legit pentagon/CIA/state dept policy