Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[barreness]

So they've allowed ATACSMS in Kursk, why they would use them there when they're losing territory in the donbas is hard to fathom. Another media piece to get you lads revved up right. Got bored of the F16's I guess

As I've said before, they'll allow strikes into Russia as the war becomes more dire for Ukraine, do they have any storm shadows left?

Not a great Manhattan if you're a fielding side


NYT article https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/31/world/europe/russia-gains-ukraine-maps.html

Archive link for those playing at home https://web.archive.org/web/2024111...1/world/europe/russia-gains-ukraine-maps.html

 

[barreness]

Well what do we have here? Russia negotiating an end to energy strikes! Someone's hurting from Russian oil refinery genocide....

Putin going from strength to strength eh barreness

I know I'm like 2 weeks late, sorry comrade, had to do my service in the trenches

Yeh this was a possible deal before the Ukraine kursk thing, abandoned after that, your twitter shitposts are weeks/months behind. Once again energy infrastructure has been hit in a lot of Ukrainian cities recently, cold winter coming up(climate change might save them). It would appear their air defence is failing, no AA is impenetrable tbf

The US also warned them against hitting oil infrastructure, much like they did with Israel against Iran(after Iran threatened to hit saudi production). Oil is a global commodity and the lifeblood of modern civilisation, any dip in production hits global prices in everything, democracy nor autocracy can afford it

 

[Mobbs]

Another shit effort from the USA - offering a pissy little borderline change to the "rules" on use of their resources, 1) restricted to one region 2) at least 18 months after the optimum time for Ukraine to use them and 3) with a massive figjam public announcement in place of a covert permission to enable maximum effect. This change is severely limited and I don't see it having a sufficient impact. Of course it IS something, and Ukraine are clever enough to work out the best way to use it.

It always feels like the USA surrendered ages ago and these inferior permissions are a political effort to pretend that they haven't.

Meanwhile the RF continue to strike every terrorism friendly target available. Zelensky was seen visiting Prokrovsk adjacent the front-line - the running joke on Telegram being that while it sounds like a leadership gotchah that he visits frontline towns while Putin hides in bunkers, the front is probably the safest place in Ukraine to be.

 

[barreness]

Russia had victory speeches prepared for all their state media outlets just 3 days after the invasion started. It talked of Ukraine gloriously rejoining the Russian empire which was going to become a superpower again.

It's all leaked

I don't disbelive they expected a quick victory ala Georgia, but source?

, Putin really did expect that Ukraine would fold within the week and that the residents of Ukraine were desperately wanting to be vatniks like yourself.

I think a lot of people/countries did. Which led to the later pumping of arms and now the predicament they find themselves, can't quit

Russia has been losing troops on a massive scale. Putin is doing everything he can to avoid conscription from where the elite that supports him resides. Now is calling on North Korean troops.

So he has avoided conscription right? Well they do have it, but 'legally not allowed outside russian soil'

This is not to say Russian losses haven't been massive, the 600k casualties number floating around recently wouldn't surprise me(200k dead, 400k wounded ish). In this war it's hard to see how Ukrainian casualties haven't been on a similar scale though.

Just from reading between the lines I'd say both armies were around 1mil engaged or resting at their peak, one side can manage that longer

And he can't even retake Kursk from Ukraine.

He can legally use conscripts there(and apparently North Koreans). It looks like a slow burn tbh, Ukraine is struggling to maintain it with(some reports i've heard) some of their best troops. Meanwhile the rest of the front, particuarly the Donbass is accelerating for Russia. Strategic error

The poster didn't say 500k would actually join. He said that Kim Jong or Putin wouldn't be particularly bothered to lose 500k troops which is probably accurate.

Don't disagree, they only care if the home front gets proper restless, like all countries

Russian troops who have surrendered / escaped talk of being sent to the front lines as cannon fodder. Threatened with execution if they did not continue to advance. Putin's using mass meat grinder tactics and it's horrific.

Yep, world war one with drones. You go first Zidane and I'll carry the spare mag /s. Not every battle is Stalingrad

As for NK troops there are millions of reservists ready to be forcibly conscripted in NK. Not like there's an option to escape for them unlike in Russia where 1 million of the smartest citizens fled Russia in knowledge of the hardship that was about to be inflicted on them by Putin's absolutely unjustified fruitless invasion of Ukraine.

It's nice they left their borders open. Shame to be a man in Ukraine trying to get out, apparently 10 million are displaced(in total, all people)

 

[barreness]

Another shit effort from the USA - offering a pissy little borderline change to the "rules" on use of their resources, 1) restricted to one region 2) at least 18 months after the optimum time for Ukraine to use them and 3) with a massive figjam public announcement in place of a covert permission to enable maximum effect. This change is severely limited and I don't see it having a sufficient impact. Of course it IS something, and Ukraine are clever enough to work out the best way to use it.

It always feels like the USA surrendered ages ago and these inferior permissions are a political effort to pretend that they haven't.

Does it ever get to the point when you think maybe the Ukrainians are being used to bleed Russia? Just enough weapons not to be overrun, never enough to turn the tide, never proper troops on the ground etc

I think this is legit pentagon/CIA/state dept policy

 

[Chadwiko]

So they've allowed ATACSMS in Kursk, why they would use them there when they're losing territory in the donbas is hard to fathom. Another media piece to get you lads revved up right. Got bored of the F16's I guess

Ukraine doesn't want to pulverise it's own territory with missiles. Not that hard to understand.

 

[Chadwiko]

 

[iDon]

Now, tweet that for Palestine Ms Wong.

 

[Johnny_Dogg4]

HUGE power outages in Kyiv.Russian UAV’s have hit several areas of the city

 

[Jbudds04v2]

So they've allowed ATACSMS in Kursk, why they would use them there when they're losing territory in the donbas is hard to fathom. Another media piece to get you lads revved up right. Got bored of the F16's I guess

As I've said before, they'll allow strikes into Russia as the war becomes more dire for Ukraine, do they have any storm shadows left?

Not a great Manhattan if you're a fielding side
View attachment 2168912

NYT article https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/31/world/europe/russia-gains-ukraine-maps.html

Archive link for those playing at home https://web.archive.org/web/2024111...1/world/europe/russia-gains-ukraine-maps.html

What's missing here is the casualty's. Russia has had more casualty's in October than at any point so far. Close to 2,000 a day.

 

[Satan]

Yeah nah

Vladimir Shklyarov, Russian ballet star, dies aged 39 after falling from building | Ballet | The Guardian

St Petersburg’s Mariinsky Theatre says dancer was taking painkillers for an injury and fell from fifth floor

amp.theguardian.com

 

[Andre]

It always feels like the USA surrendered ages ago and these inferior permissions are a political effort to pretend that they haven't.

Still too much fear of the collapse of Russia and a Russian nuclear response. So always the thin slices of new aid, all set at a small enough increment they are confident Russia won't overreact. It's still frustrating that too many in the West haven't figured out Putin's hand is weak. He's struggling against Ukraine, he's not going to escalate and attack NATO countries simultaneously if aid was properly provided. The likes of Scholz, Jake Sullivan and Biden must have lost plenty at Poker over the years, as they believe so many obviously fake bluffs.

 

[Mobbs]

Does it ever get to the point when you think maybe the Ukrainians are being used to bleed Russia? Just enough weapons not to be overrun, never enough to turn the tide, never proper troops on the ground etc

I think this is legit pentagon/CIA/state dept policy

As a useful war, yes.

As an engineered conflict from the get-go, no.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Aussie in exile]

So it's ok for Russia to launch missiles into Ukraine, but not Ukraine to launch missiles into Russia.

 

[Zidane98]

I don't disbelive they expected a quick victory ala Georgia, but source?

Had a vacation recently have we tovarisch?

Here you go, published by Ria Novosti (and deleted when things weren't going so well for your leader):

Наступление России и нового мира

Новый мир рождается на наших глазах. Военная операция России на Украине открыла новую эпоху — причем сразу в трех измерениях. И конечно, в четвертом,... РИА Новости, 26.02.2022

web.archive.org

We've been hearing from yourself that Ukraine are losing the war for the last 18 months but yet here we are and now they've taken over Russian territory.

I think a lot of people/countries did. Which led to the later pumping of arms and now the predicament they find themselves, can't quit

Putin's in a bigger predicament. He's destroying the sovereignty of Russia with his war, interest rates are at 21%, the country is in crisis. War economy is driving inflation, not consumer spending. He now needs to find a way out of the war that he's losing massively without undermining the economy which is now on a war footing. Ukraine don't have this problem, Ukraine's economic future isn't dependent on war like Russias is right now. We now have North Korea & Iran using Russia to bleed the west of military supplies. China are on the sidelines waiting patiently while Putin makes an idiot of himself acting like a modern day Hitler. When Russia is at its weakest Russia can kiss goodbye to central asain republics as the dominant power plus expect China to make a land grab for some of Vladivostock.

Whatever happens Putin continuing the invasion only has negative implications for Russia. There's no advantage at all.

So he has avoided conscription right? Well they do have it, but 'legally not allowed outside russian soil'

Nope. An official mobilisation in 2022 plus unofficial ones all the time.

This is not to say Russian losses haven't been massive, the 600k casualties number floating around recently wouldn't surprise me(200k dead, 400k wounded ish). In this war it's hard to see how Ukrainian casualties haven't been on a similar scale though.

Of course you'd say this. General rule of thumb is invaders suffer 4 times as many casualties as those defending. Just recently Russia has been hitting 2000 casualties per day, a record for you guys.

Just from reading between the lines I'd say both armies were around 1mil engaged or resting at their peak, one side can manage that longer

One side also can manage the economic implications for much longer. Even Russian economic analysis shows Russia is reaching crisis point. Collapse similar to 1990s Russia is near (sometime in 2025) and that's disastrous for Putin and people like yourself.

He can legally use conscripts there(and apparently North Koreans). It looks like a slow burn tbh, Ukraine is struggling to maintain it with(some reports i've heard) some of their best troops. Meanwhile the rest of the front, particuarly the Donbass is accelerating for Russia. Strategic error

Accelerating? Haha. Russia is losing 10s of thousands of troops to advance a few kms over months. It isn't sustainable. You know it - I know it. Recruiting North Korean troops is desperation from Putin who knows mobilising from middle to upper class Russia is a disaster for him.

Don't disagree, they only care if the home front gets proper restless, like all countries

Yep, world war one with drones. You go first Zidane and I'll carry the spare mag /s. Not every battle is Stalingrad

Ukranians don't shoot their own for not advancing as cannon fodder. This is well documented. Russia also needed to release murderers, rapists en masse from jail just to keep up Putin's futile war.

It's nice they left their borders open. Shame to be a man in Ukraine trying to get out, apparently 10 million are displaced(in total, all people)

Shame to be a man trying to escape conscription in any areas targeted by your leader Putin's racist conscription policies which target ethnic minority groups for use as cannon fodder.

Putin knows that having to mobilise middle / upper class European Russians is the end for him.


This war ends in later 2025 with Russia on its knees economically, Russia pulling out in disgrace subject to international reparations. There will be no peace agreement as it is pretty clear a fascist like Putin can't be trusted with any agreement as per Budapest Agreement, Kharkic Pact, 2003 Russian/Ukranian border treaty.

I can also see a repeat to Germany where NATO forces were not allowed to be stationed on former East German territory upon reunification. Ukraine will join NATO post war with the exception of Crimea becoming an independent republic with an equal amount of Ukranian & Russian troops allowed to be stationed there.

 

[Andre]

So they've allowed ATACSMS in Kursk, why they would use them there when they're losing territory in the donbas is hard to fathom. Another media piece to get you lads revved up right. Got bored of the F16's I guess

ATACMS are not artillery. They are best used as a deep strike weapon to hit ammo/supply depots, airbases, key bridges, etc. behind enemy lines. This opens up additional targets they couldn't reach already (i.e. those in the Donbas). Destroying Russian vehicles and Ammo in Kursk, both weakens the Russian counter-attack there and potentially forces them to move resources going to the Donbas to reinforce that front. The permission is beneficial, it's just half-hearted. Ukraine should be able to use them anywhere in Russia (against military targets).

 

[Zidane98]

So it's ok for Russia to launch missiles into Ukraine, but not Ukraine to launch missiles into Russia.

What a clown. Iranian / North Korean ballistic / cruise missiles being fired by Russia at civilian infrastructure isn't an escalation but this is.


As usual, everyone laughs at this nonsense by Putin. This is about the 34452 time he's threatened about "red lines being crossed". He has a much credibility as Kim Jong on the international stage these days.

The loser couldn't even attend the G20 conference in Brazil because they are a signatory to the ICC and were going to arrest him.

 

[Zidane98]

IMO Ukraine would do a peace deal with a new Russian government. Chances of an agreement between Ukraine with Putin & his USSR era fascist mates is essentially 0% as all previous agreements were dishonored by Putin as would any new agreement.

 

[Vassp]

Does it ever get to the point when you think maybe the Ukrainians are being used to bleed Russia? Just enough weapons not to be overrun, never enough to turn the tide, never proper troops on the ground etc

I think this is legit pentagon/CIA/state dept policy

also lets get in quick before trumps take charge, so bleeding obvious, USA warmongers at work here.
getting involved and supplying long-range missiles NOT what you want to de escalate the war.

 

[Aussie in exile]

also lets get in quick before trumps take charge, so bleeding obvious, USA warmongers at work here.
getting involved and supplying long-range missiles NOT what you want to de escalate the war.

Russia invaded Ukraine illegally, yes or no.
Russia getting 10,000 soldiers from North Korea escalated the war, yes or no.

 

[Vassp]

Russia invaded Ukraine illegally, yes or no.
Russia getting 10,000 soldiers from North Korea escalated the war, yes or no.

Russia warned they didnt want Nato close to Moscow, for many years and many times over. easy to youtube putin warning about this exact thing. But Nato did Nato things and this is the end result. yes or no?

 

[The Terrible Thinker]

Russia warned they didnt want Nato close to Moscow, for many years and many times over. easy to youtube putin warning about this exact thing. But Nato did Nato things and this is the end result. yes or no?

Estonia (NATO), 640 Km to Moscow
Latvia (NATO), 583 Km to Moscow
Ukraine, 450 Km to Moscow

How close is close?

 

[Zidane98]

Russia warned they didnt want Nato close to Moscow, for many years and many times over. easy to youtube putin warning about this exact thing. But Nato did Nato things and this is the end result. yes or no?

Do NATO force states to join?

No.


Due to Putin's actions is NATO now closer to Moscow than before the Ukraine war?


Yes - new NATO border with Finland directly due to Putin's actions in Ukraine

Is Ukraine a member of NATO?

No.

Could Ukraine have possibly been a member of NATO prior to 2019?

No.

Did Russia invade Ukraine when it was neutral?

Yes.



Putin loses this argument every day of the week ending in y.

 

[Zidane98]

Estonia (NATO), 640 Km to Moscow
Latvia (NATO), 583 Km to Moscow
Ukraine, 450 Km to Moscow

How close is close?

Independent Kursk Peoples republic is closer to Moscow to be fair.

 

[wannabejack]

Had a vacation recently have we tovarisch?

In sunny Kursk.