Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Johnny_Dogg4]

 

[Zidane98]

why dont you ask a different question like..... who has a vested interest in the war to keep going?

Putin. He knows Ukraine joins NATO when the war ends. This makes his goal of absorbing Ukraine into a new Russian empire USSR 2.0 lite impossible. Russian economy is now geared for war.

The only party that wants this war to continue is Putin. The war ends tomorrow if Putin withdraws from Ukraine completely.

 

[Zidane98]

This would be about the 4344664th threat he has made.

They go to junk mail these days in the inboxes of western leaders.

 

[Baldur]

why dont you ask a different question like..... who has a vested interest in the war to keep going?

Another Tankie saying it’s all the fault of the evil imperialist yankee industrial military complex.

Now this might be a reasonable explanation as to why Biden only gives just enough to keep the war going but not allow Ukraine to win, if he was that smart, he’s not, and not clearly scared of Russia losing.

Most times the simple answer is the correct answer, Occam's razor. But some people must invent conspiracy theories.

 

[Jello_B]

Putin would know that Russia isn’t going to be attacked by NATO.
He doesn’t want the US having access to and controlling Ukraine. Putin believes that Ukraine falls in the Russian sphere of influence. Not dissimilar if Australia tried to join with China, the US would have a big problem with that. Not sure if they would bomb the crap out of us and invade us, but there would be a severe response.

 

[Johnny_Dogg4]

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Russia warned they didnt want Nato close to Moscow, for many years and many times over.

Our neighbours have a dog they keep in their backyard that barks really loudly in the middle of the night, often keeping us awake.

So one night I jumped the fence, grabbed their dog and put it in our backyard, just to see how they'd like it.

 

[wannabejack]

Putin would know that Russia isn’t going to be attacked by NATO.
He doesn’t want the US having access to and controlling Ukraine. Putin believes that Ukraine falls in the Russian sphere of influence. Not dissimilar if Australia tried to join with China, the US would have a big problem with that. Not sure if they would bomb the crap out of us and invade us, but there would be a severe response.

Because of Putin’s war there’s the possibility that the US will have a great deal more access to and control of Ukraine.

Alongside the troop-replacement idea, a second proposal – reported to be the brain child of Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally - suggests that Ukraine could share critical natural resources with Western partners.

Additionally, Ukrainian business leaders are reportedly discussing a proposal to grant Trump “investment screening” powers in Ukraine, allowing him to select who can conduct business in the country

 

[Jello_B]

Because of Putin’s war there’s the possibility that the US will have a great deal more access to and control of Ukraine.

Alongside the troop-replacement idea, a second proposal – reported to be the brain child of Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally - suggests that Ukraine could share critical natural resources with Western partners.

Additionally, Ukrainian business leaders are reportedly discussing a proposal to grant Trump “investment screening” powers in Ukraine, allowing him to select who can conduct business in the country

Yer I didn’t say it was well thought through…
Also Ukraine are offering their in-ground resources to the US to attract their continuing supply of arms.

 

[Visions]

Here’s a novel and completely fanciful notion, how bout everyone stop killing each other (including the arming of Ukraine) and everyone sit in a room and work out an end game that doesn’t destroy everyone.

Russia and the US / NATO need to find a reasonable compromise that has some longevity.

Ukraine remains a neutral country, not a part of NATO, and not Russian either.
Russia and Europe start working together more closely economically, same with US and Russia. Agree some terms that each party can compromise to and maintain. Go through each country in the region and agree terms.

The only people winning right now are arms manufacturers.

In short twould be nice if everyone put their ***** back in their pants for once.

No I don’t, Putin has invaded Ukraine illegally. When do we get to talk about how to move to some sort of future sane relationship?

You realise I don’t want this happening either. And at this stage there is nothing on the table to stop this continuing.

You mean something like this? Worked out well until it didn't. Just like the numerous other negotiations/agreement Russia has been a part of in its entire history.

Your intentions are noble, however in practice all it will do is kick the can down the road until Russia gets exactly what it wants playing the long game.

Minsk agreements - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Visions]

Now that this has happened......

The "response" will be more of the same, nuclear sabre rattling without actually doing anything.

 

[Zidane98]

Yer I didn’t say it was well thought through…
Also Ukraine are offering their in-ground resources to the US to attract their continuing supply of arms.

What resources does Ukraine have that the US needs? Plenty of gas & coal - not what US needs. Iron ore - the US gets that from Canada and if needed Brazil or even Australia. Oil - US has plenty of trading partners for oil. Russia has much more of it and the US have limited their access to world markets.


I don't see anything in particular resource wise that Ukraine can offer the US.

The most important thing the US wants is stability / peace in Europe. This results in steady oil prices rather than wild variations. That's why it is in the interests of the US for Ukraine to achieve peaceful independence. That, and the US signing a deal to protect Ukraine in exchange for giving up its advanced bomber fleet, cruise/ballistic/nukes to Russia.

 

[Visions]

Talking about falling out of windows, I wish this guy would......

The updated vatnik version of Russia hasn't started fighting properly yet.

How the **** has this campaigner become Trumps de-facto Secretary of State?

 

[Visions]

Our neighbours have a dog they keep in their backyard that barks really loudly in the middle of the night, often keeping us awake.

So one night I jumped the fence, grabbed their dog and put it in our backyard, just to see how they'd like it.

Yeah, hut how far was the dog from Moscow!

 

[Chief]

The updated vatnik version of Russia hasn't started fighting properly yet.

Don't say anything! Don't do anything! Russia might take literal tank museum displays and gas them up for war!

They do it with Israel too. Look out Palestine! Stop fighting or Israel will REALLY start in on you!

 

[Visions]

Don't say anything! Don't do anything! Russia might take literal tank museum displays and gas them up for war!

Considering they are already taking tank props from film sets like posted earlier, this is the next logical step.

 

[barreness]

ATACMS are not artillery. They are best used as a deep strike weapon to hit ammo/supply depots, airbases, key bridges, etc. behind enemy lines. This opens up additional targets they couldn't reach already (i.e. those in the Donbas). Destroying Russian vehicles and Ammo in Kursk, both weakens the Russian counter-attack there and potentially forces them to move resources going to the Donbas to reinforce that front. The permission is beneficial, it's just half-hearted. Ukraine should be able to use them anywhere in Russia (against military targets).

They kinda do act as artillery, hence the A. It's designed as a longer than artillery weapon for the army. Not a deep strike weapon

Ukraine has been free to strike anything in the Donbass for ever

Is it Kursk oblast, city, or the occupied territory? The latter for mine

Russia has still not diverted troops to Kursk, conscripts and NK's by the looks. The Donbass front remains heavily stocked

 

[barreness]

Ukraine doesn't want to pulverise it's own territory with missiles. Not that hard to understand.

I mean they've been using cluster munitions and mining the shit out of defensive positions. To draw the line at a short range ballistic missile would make no sense

There's a limited supply of those(also storm shadow etc), it's a military decision not an environmental one

 

[barreness]

Had a vacation recently have we tovarisch?

Here you go, published by Ria Novosti (and deleted when things weren't going so well for your leader):

You speak Russian?

Наступление России и нового мира

Новый мир рождается на наших глазах. Военная операция России на Украине открыла новую эпоху — причем сразу в трех измерениях. И конечно, в четвертом,... РИА Новости, 26.02.2022

web.archive.org

We've been hearing from yourself that Ukraine are losing the war for the last 18 months but yet here we are and now they've taken over Russian territory.

They have been losing the war for that long? idk

Putin's in a bigger predicament. He's destroying the sovereignty of Russia with his war, interest rates are at 21%, the country is in crisis. War economy is driving inflation, not consumer spending. He now needs to find a way out of the war that he's losing massively without undermining the economy which is now on a war footing. Ukraine don't have this problem, Ukraine's economic future isn't dependent on war like Russias is right now.

lol, Ukraine economy is borderline non existent. It requires foreign aid

Russian economy is also in trouble but it's clearly in better shapes than Ukraine

We now have North Korea & Iran using Russia to bleed the west of military supplies.

A little conspiratorial, but interesting argument

China are on the sidelines waiting patiently while Putin makes an idiot of himself acting like a modern day Hitler. When Russia is at its weakest Russia can kiss goodbye to central asain republics as the dominant power plus expect China to make a land grab for some of Vladivostock.

You've got some interesting premonitions

Whatever happens Putin continuing the invasion only has negative implications for Russia. There's no advantage at all.

um, land?

Nope. An official mobilisation in 2022 plus unofficial ones all the time.

Ah yes. Unofficial, unreported, but definitely happening

Of course you'd say this. General rule of thumb is invaders suffer 4 times as many casualties as those defending. Just recently Russia has been hitting 2000 casualties per day, a record for you guys.

Source?

It's a little more complicated no? How many casualties did the US suffer in the Iraq invasion, like 1000?

One side also can manage the economic implications for much longer. Even Russian economic analysis shows Russia is reaching crisis point. Collapse similar to 1990s Russia is near (sometime in 2025) and that's disastrous for Putin and people like yourself.

This is hilarious. How was Ukraine's economy post 1990?

Accelerating? Haha. Russia is losing 10s of thousands of troops to advance a few kms over months. It isn't sustainable. You know it - I know it. Recruiting North Korean troops is desperation from Putin who knows mobilising from middle to upper class Russia is a disaster for him.

Ok, is it accelerating?

Ukranians don't shoot their own for not advancing as cannon fodder. This is well documented.

They just grab them off the street, also well documented

Russia also needed to release murderers, rapists en masse from jail just to keep up Putin's futile war.

Ukraine also released all their eligible prisoners at the the start of the conflict. I've had this convo with you before I think. Just because Ukraine ran out of murderers doesn't make them better

Shame to be a man trying to escape conscription in any areas targeted by your leader Putin's racist conscription policies which target ethnic minority groups for use as cannon fodder.

Go volunteer in Ukraine man, they're short

Putin knows that having to mobilise middle / upper class European Russians is the end for him.


This war ends in later 2025 with Russia on its knees economically, Russia pulling out in disgrace subject to international reparations. There will be no peace agreement as it is pretty clear a fascist like Putin can't be trusted with any agreement as per Budapest Agreement, Kharkic Pact, 2003 Russian/Ukranian border treaty.

Good luck, long winter

I can also see a repeat to Germany where NATO forces were not allowed to be stationed on former East German territory upon reunification. Ukraine will join NATO post war with the exception of Crimea becoming an independent republic with an equal amount of Ukranian & Russian troops allowed to be stationed there.

I mean fair. You have at least conceded that Crimea will be Russian for the foreseeable future

 

[barreness]

As a useful war, yes.

As an engineered conflict from the get-go, no.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yeh I'd agree with that

 

[barreness]

What's missing here is the casualty's. Russia has had more casualty's in October than at any point so far. Close to 2,000 a day.

source?

 

[Johnny_Dogg4]

 

[Gavin Excell]

Now that this has happened......



The "response" will be more of the same, nuclear sabre rattling without actually doing anything.

Given Russian "diplomacy" involves looking directly in your eyes and lying to you (it's been the same since Molotov), is there any wonder nobody in the world community believes anything the Russians say.

Their "word" has no value