Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Millky95]

I'm curious as to the ideological standpoint of these pro-Russian shills.

From what I've observed over the past 2-3 years, they're either Far Right Trumpist types who admire the autocratical nature of Putin et al and wouldn't mind the entire world going down that route, or they're remnants of some Far Left "commie" bent that I thought had breathed it's final breath in about circa 1989.

So effectively, all of these Russian apologists/activists are either "1 o'clock" or "11 o'clock" on the Far Right/Left clockface respectively, and have somehow found a way to meet up for a group hug at "12 o'clock".

Rabid anti-Americans can smoothly integrate into either leaning.

Something something political horse shoe

 

[Zidane98]

I'm curious as to the ideological standpoint of these pro-Russian shills.

From what I've observed over the past 2-3 years, they're either Far Right Trumpist types who admire the autocratical nature of Putin et al and wouldn't mind the entire world going down that route, or they're remnants of some Far Left "commie" bent that I thought had breathed it's final breath in about circa 1989.

So effectively, all of these Russian apologists/activists are either "1 o'clock" or "11 o'clock" on the Far Right/Left clockface respectively, and have somehow found a way to meet up for a group hug at "12 o'clock".

Rabid anti-Americans can smoothly integrate into either leaning.

For many, it is simply all about the financial benefits.


Look at tenet media in the US for example. There's a huge pro Russian disinformation network. This is one area where the Russians reign supreme.


Eg that muppet Caitlin Johnstone wrote articles for RT in the past.


No coincidence at all that most of her articles as an "independent" journalist have a pro Russian slant or or contain outright Russian disinformation.

 

[Zidane98]

Hell, if someone wants to pay me 10k / month I'll start posting like a vatnik!

 

[Chadwiko]

I'm curious as to the ideological standpoint of these pro-Russian shills.

From what I've observed over the past 2-3 years, they're either Far Right Trumpist types who admire the autocratical nature of Putin et al and wouldn't mind the entire world going down that route, or they're remnants of some Far Left "commie" bent that I thought had breathed it's final breath in about circa 1989.

In the NMFC thread, there's a few who definitely self-identify as that old Gen X/80s style 'far left' archetype - the sort who proclaims America as the great Satan and thinks everything they do is Imperialistic and evil, no matter who the "opponent" is.

And there's also a couple of unequivocal cookers. Anti-vax, covid-truther, conspiracy theory slurpers who think the reason Trump won the election is because Joe Rogan and Elon Musk are the paragons of modern truth, etc.

And together, they've formed a neat little clique centred around their mutual support of Russia against Ukraine.

It's quite fascinating and adorable, to be honest. It's like Jill Stein and Alex Jones teamed up.

Oh, and they get real mad when I talk about them in this thread. I've already gotten a PM from one of them about it today. Shit is hilarious.

 

[Zidane98]

Another example of winning as per barreness





I bet the ceo of Gazprom is staying well away from windows after losing Putin & his cronies $6.1 billion.

Gazprom is supposed to be part of the Russian natural resource gravy train!

 

[Zidane98]

Rosneft CEO moving to classify data on Russian oil refinery exports. I wonder what possibly could be the reason for such a move........

 

[Smeg Head]

Rosneft CEO moving to classify data on Russian oil refinery exports. I wonder what possibly could be the reason for such a move........

Partly to protect the shit campaigner countries still taking in stuff regardless of sanctions. Aka NK, China, India etc

 

[Smeg Head]

In the NMFC thread, there's a few who definitely self-identify as that old Gen X/80s style 'far left' archetype - the sort who proclaims America as the great Satan and thinks everything they do is Imperialistic and evil, no matter who the "opponent" is.

And there's also a couple of unequivocal cookers. Anti-vax, covid-truther, conspiracy theory slurpers who think the reason Trump won the election is because Joe Rogan and Elon Musk are the paragons of modern truth, etc.

And together, they've formed a neat little clique centred around their mutual support of Russia against Ukraine.

It's quite fascinating and adorable, to be honest. It's like Jill Stein and Alex Jones teamed up.

Oh, and they get real mad when I talk about them in this thread. I've already gotten a PM from one of them about it today. Shit is hilarious.

Oh they get real mad do they? Diddums. I think they should all be thrown in a dark hole for offering material support to terrorists. Then they can truly appreciate the 'culture'

 

[Zidane98]

Seems Putin has been busy forgiving debt to anyone who conscripts. Doing anything to avoid a second mobilisation.


However the CB of Russia are not happy. Inflation is running away due to war spending. Kremlin now spending at Soviet Union era levels on military.

 

[Chief]

Partly to protect the shit campaigner countries still taking in stuff regardless of sanctions. Aka NK, China, India etc

And the UK companies organising it all.

 

[Smeg Head]

And the UK companies organising it all.

They are so far working on prosecuting a single sanctions breaker... for selling perfume

 

[Zidane98]

They are so far working on prosecuting a single sanctions breaker... for selling perfume

Is that the Official Salisbury Fragrance variant?

 

[Zidane98]

Well this is escalating quickly. Seems the Reserve bank has decided to stop propping up the ruble:



Ruble hits a new low.


Also, lines galore reported in Moscow of citizens doing a run on banks.


Mobbs you heard any news about this from your contacts?

 

[Aussie in exile]

Another example of winning as per barreness





I bet the ceo of Gazprom is staying well away from windows after losing Putin & his cronies $6.1 billion.

Gazprom is supposed to be part of the Russian natural resource gravy train!

Putin is leading Russia in the abyss with his illegal war in Ukraine and still some on here can't see it

 

[Mobbs]

Well this is escalating quickly. Seems the Reserve bank has decided to stop propping up the ruble:



Ruble hits a new low.


Also, lines galore reported in Moscow of citizens doing a run on banks.


Mobbs you heard any news about this from your contacts?

Not a word!

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Mobbs]

Read somewhere that the UK supplied a bunch more scalp missiles to Ukraine. They just didn't mention it publicly.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Zidane98]

Read somewhere that the UK supplied a bunch more scalp missiles to Ukraine. They just didn't mention it publicly.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

SCALP is French cruise missile isn't it?


Storm Shadow the poms version.

 

[Mobbs]

SCALP is French cruise missile isn't it?


Storm Shadow the poms version.

Apologies it would have been Storm Shadow. Was definitely the Brits.

On SM-A146P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[jatz14]

It's sort of all predictable, and personally, I don't think Trump changes the outcome.

When sanctions were first applied, and people said on a Monday, that this would hurt the Russian economy, the Vatniks were crowing on Tuesday, that the predicted Russian economic collapse hadn't happened.

But, Russia had large financial reserves, and lots of stored equipment. They were always going to be able to ride out sanctions for some time.

But that's not the same as the sanctions having no affect.

When reserves start to run low, stockpiles start to shrink, things will begin to get worse exponentially faster.

And Trump is such a narcissist, I think his ineffectualness helps Ukraine.

Putin hangs on, for Trump to ride in and compel Ukraine to effectively surrender, but I don't think that happens. Then what does Putin do?

And I don't think Trump cares about Ukraine, it's just, the war isn't directly impacting Trump, so he just isn't going to give a ****. Ending the war day 1 was just an election slogan, and he will put more effort into blaming the Democrats for the war not ending, than he will in ending it.

In the next 12 months, I think we see the start of real negotiations, and that only happens when Russia cannot afford to just drop a shopping list of concessions in front of Ukraine, and walk away if Ukraine says, no.

When Russia is forced to ask Ukraine, what the counter offer is, the war is on its way to ending.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Jello_B]

Another example of winning as per barreness





I bet the ceo of Gazprom is staying well away from windows after losing Putin & his cronies $6.1 billion.

Gazprom is supposed to be part of the Russian natural resource gravy train!

When do you think and what do you think will happen here? How long to go in your opinion?

 

[Zidane98]

When do you think and what do you think will happen here? How long to go in your opinion?

It's hard to say exactly. Russian analysts are now forecasting a collapse sometime in 2025.

 

[Frank Grimes]

It's hard to say exactly. Russian analysts are now forecasting a collapse sometime in 2025.

The Russian economy held up longer than expected, but it appears to be in serious trouble now.

The Ruble is now trading at 109 to the US dollar.

It went past 100 to the US dollar about a year ago but went back to around 80 to tbe US dollar after Putin demanded for it to improve. I'm no economist but from my understanding they did this by buying their own currancy and raising interest rates.

I think the interest rate was 7.5% when the Ruble was over 100 last year. The interest rate is now 21%.

There doesn't appear to be any other levers Putin can pull to stabilize the Ruble.

 

[Couch Coach]

The Russian economy held up longer than expected, but it appears to be in serious trouble now.

The Ruble is now trading at 109 to the US dollar.

It went past 100 to the US dollar about a year ago but went back to around 80 to tbe US dollar after Putin demanded for it to improve. I'm no economist but from my understanding they did this by buying their own currancy and raising interest rates.

I think the interest rate was 7.5% when going when the Ruble was over 100 last year. The interest rate is now 21%.

There doesn't appear to be any other levers Putin can pull to stabilize the Ruble.

Still dropping

 

[Couch Coach]

 

[Zidane98]

View attachment 2177110
View attachment 2177111

Yet another red line crossed.