Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Jello_B]

"Russia is spending 9% of its GDP on defense, while EU member states collectively average only 1.9%." Why would russia be spending 9% of its GDP if it isn't "preparing for further provocations".

You might call it “war mongering bullshit” but some would call it strategic defence. Military planning to deter russia from attacking a weak NATO.

Because that’s how much they need to spend to sustain the war against Ukraine (with US / NATO backing).
Are they going to start spending 20% to start attacking Poland?

 

[Jello_B]

What's hyperbolic? Russia does present a threat to all, not just those who border it.


Just ask Netherlands who lost 193 citizens to Russian malice. And Azerbaijan who lost citizens to Russia similarly. UK citizens poisoned inadvertently by Russian spies attempting to assassinate Russian dissidents on UK soil.


The difference with Russia to European states is Putin has the power to spend what he wants on war. If that means obliterating the economy, so be it. What I find ironic is you get the vatniks who complain about Ukraine receiving military aid (which comes out of department of defense budget, not general revenue) are completely silent when Putin ramps up defense spending on a needless war to nearly 40% of the Kremlin's budget.

A few hundred citizens is not “existential” which is as I said a hyperbolic term.

 

[jatz14]

"This is a heavily militarized country that presents an existential threat to us all," Kallas warned, citing intelligence reports suggesting that Russia is preparing for further provocations.

Seems like hyperbolic war mongering bullshit to me.

Or, maybe Russia has the largest military in Europe, because it's heavily mitarised, and is constantly preparing for war?

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Mobbs]

Russian Oil Refinery (and/or storage, I dunno) bingo card. For info, the bilo/stalo tank in the legend refers to "before" and "current". I believe the dates bottom right of each facility depict occasions that facility was struck, but can't confirm. Ryzanski is the one centre top with the red arrow. Blue one is at Orsk and represents flooding, not fire (whispers: I don't think Ukraine did that one)

 

[wannabejack]

Because that’s how much they need to spend to sustain the war against Ukraine (with US / NATO backing).
Are they going to start spending 20% to start attacking Poland?

So Poland’s increased military spending, for strategic defence, is a deterrent (insurance) for russia attacking Poland. Without the deterrent (insurance) russia may not need to spend your “20% to start attacking Poland” but a lot less.

It’s still not “war mongering bullshit” but strategic defence.
“They [Poland] had planned on basically running the transformation [military modernization] out to about 2030, and then suddenly, on the eve of the Ukraine invasion by Russia, the Polish government was like, ‘This is no longer a joke. This is too close to home. We need to accelerate everything in terms of our military modernization,’”

When “the war has broken close to you, the society creates what is happening,” he said. “You look at some views from Bucha or Irpin, where the Russian soldiers literally kill the normal civilian population, then you’re holding faster and you are very afraid.”

 

[Visions]

Blue one is at Orsk and represents flooding, not fire (whispers: I don't think Ukraine did that one)

No that was the NATO loving US Democrats, as apparently they can manifest things like hurricanes out of thin air.

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Zidane98]

 

[Mobbs]

Interesting footage of Ukrainian drones taking out numerous vehicles, from Denys Davydov's "Rumble" channel, which he's testing out for potentially less censorship compared to Youtube.

Content warning: While the imagery is not clear, Russian troops are killed in some of the night footage.

 

[wannabejack]

U.S. considers using frozen Russian assets to arm Ukraine, says Envoy Keith Kellogg

In a potential shift of policy, the new U.S. Administration might consider leveraging frozen Russian state assets to supply arms to Ukraine. The United States is exploring the possibility of using Russia’s frozen government assets, initially seized in response to aggression, to purchase weaponry...

www.uawire.org

"This topic is subject to discussion. This is always part of the work, because we have different options and we want to present to the President of the United States several of them so that he can choose. We have repeatedly talked about using Russian frozen assets to purchase American weapons. This is one of the pieces of the puzzle that needs to be discussed, and it will be on the President's table for discussion," Kellogg noted.

The U.S. has been a proponent of a full forfeiture of these funds to assist Ukraine in its recovery. In April 2024, the U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation that would allow these funds to be used for aid to Ukraine.

From a Kyiv Independent article.
"If a deal is not reached, I will have no other choice but to put high levels of taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States and other participating countries," Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social Jan. 22.

While sanctions are one incentive to negotiate, "their impact is likely not to be truly dangerous for Putin for several more months," [not good if they're looking to end the war in 100 days] former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John E. Herbst told the Kyiv Independent.

"I think the only way to get Putin to move faster [on a deal] in the short term would be for a new Trump-approved aid package to Ukraine full of weapons," said Herbst.

The package wouldn’t need to be a gift, noted Herbst, but could be a loan, or funded by frozen Russian assets or European partners.

Alternatively, he said, other countries could purchase weapons for Ukraine, or the Trump administration could push for a transfer of the approximately $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, an option that has been previously discussed.

"That might force Putin's hand in the right direction. Although, even then, it's unclear if Putin's willing to compromise," Herbst said.

 

[Millky95]

Putin's loses total 840k as more than two million Russians wounded in invasion

Russian president Vladimir Putin has lost 840,000 soldiers, while two million more have been injured in his war in Ukraine

www.dailystar.co.uk

Not sure how legit though

 

[CD Xbow]

Putin's loses total 840k as more than two million Russians wounded in invasion

Russian president Vladimir Putin has lost 840,000 soldiers, while two million more have been injured in his war in Ukraine

www.dailystar.co.uk

Not sure how legit though

Looks about twice as large as most estimates. Filing it under "F" for fiction.
Those NK troops certainly were not a fiction despite the claims of some posters. Article in the Diplomat talks about them. Cannon fodder. No training for deployment in Ukraine. 11 years conscription. FMD.

What Do POWs in Ukraine Teach Us About North Korea’s Military?

North Korean soldiers captured by Ukraine provide a rare window into covert military collaboration.

thediplomat.com

 

[Zidane98]

Lukashenko wins Belarus elections. 87% of votes.

Looks like my 100k bet on Luka to win @1.03 was a safe investment.

 

[Present Not Past]

The USSR claimed.
That's where this argument is irrelevant today.

 

[Green Hammer]

The USSR claimed.
That's where this argument is irrelevant today.

According to a report by Ukrainskaya Pravda on Monday, the latest survey conducted in December 2024 reflects shifting public sentiment, with increasing support for a diplomatic solution after years of conflict and the changing situation on the battlefield.

According to the poll, 50.6% of respondents support negotiations involving international leaders to secure guarantees for ending the conflict. This marks a significant increase from 36.1% in February 2024.

The percentage of Ukrainians who back continuing the fight until Ukraine regains its 1991 borders, has significantly dropped from 33.5% in February 2024 to 14.7% in December 2024.

 

[Green Hammer]

Putin's loses total 840k as more than two million Russians wounded in invasion

Russian president Vladimir Putin has lost 840,000 soldiers, while two million more have been injured in his war in Ukraine

www.dailystar.co.uk

Not sure how legit though

Ukraine's existence could be threatened if “serious” peace talks do not begin by the summer, the country’s intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said during a closed meeting in the parliament, NV’s sister publication Ukrainska Pravda wrote on Jan.27, citing an anonymous participant

https://english.nv.ua/nation/very-dangerous-processes-await-ukraine-without-peace-talks-budanov-says-50484929.html

 

[Green Hammer]

So Poland’s increased military spending, for strategic defence, is a deterrent (insurance) for russia attacking Poland. Without the deterrent (insurance) russia may not need to spend your “20% to start attacking Poland” but a lot less.

It’s still not “war mongering bullshit” but strategic defence.
“They [Poland] had planned on basically running the transformation [military modernization] out to about 2030, and then suddenly, on the eve of the Ukraine invasion by Russia, the Polish government was like, ‘This is no longer a joke. This is too close to home. We need to accelerate everything in terms of our military modernization,’”

When “the war has broken close to you, the society creates what is happening,” he said. “You look at some views from Bucha or Irpin, where the Russian soldiers literally kill the normal civilian population, then you’re holding faster and you are very afraid.”

Poland to invade western Ukraine?

 

[wannabejack]

Poland to invade western Ukraine?

Some old propaganda. You should stop listening (spreading) to russian propaganda.

There’s complete absence of evidence for the existence of such plans, not to mention Poland’s staunch support for Ukraine since russia’s invasion.

 

[Green Hammer]

Some old propaganda. You should stop listening (spreading) to russian propaganda.

There’s complete absence of evidence for the existence of such plans, not to mention Poland’s staunch support for Ukraine since russia’s invasion.

Much talk amongst the Poles about lviv being reunited with poland

 

[Zidane98]

Much talk amongst the Poles about lviv being reunited with poland

No there isn't. Poland absolutely respects Ukraine's sovereignty unlike other fascist nations bordering it.


From day 1 Putin's put out garbage about Hungary & Poland wanting to carve up Ukraine. It's nonsense.


What is more likely is Independent People Republic of Kursk & Belgorod returning to Ukrainian rule after the USSR transferred them from Ukraine o Russian SFSR early USSR days illegitimately.

 

[Green Hammer]

No there isn't. Poland absolutely respects Ukraine's sovereignty unlike other fascist nations bordering it.


From day 1 Putin's put out garbage about Hungary & Poland wanting to carve up Ukraine. It's nonsense.


What is more likely is Independent People Republic of Kursk & Belgorod returning to Ukrainian rule after the USSR transferred them from Ukraine o Russian SFSR early USSR days illegitimately.

Yes there is. Lots think lviv belongs with poland

 

[Zidane98]

Yes there is. Lots think lviv belongs with poland

Many in Lithuania also believes Smolensk belongs to it culturally & historically.




Do you believe Smolensk will be returned to Lithuanian rule also?

 

[Green Hammer]

Many in Lithuania also believes Smolensk belongs to it culturally & historically.




Do you believe Smolensk will be returned to Lithuanian rule also?

How? Whats the pathway? Ukraine is in free fall and will be carved up its neighbours

 

[Zidane98]

How? Whats the pathway? Ukraine is in free fall and will be carved up its neighbours

Interesting theory considering Russia is falling apart. The ruble is worthless. Putin has turned Russia into a disgraced parish state, rapidly heading in the same direction as Nazi Germany.

So much so that Putin has resorted to doing deals with Iran & North Korea. Something unimaginable prior to his fascist empirical invasion of Ukraine.

In every metric Russia is losing apart from the military battle where it struggles to win much despite a 5-1 numerical advantage.

 

[Visions]

Lukashenko wins Belarus elections. 87% of votes.

Looks like my 100k bet on Luka to win @1.03 was a safe investment.

87%? Thats pretty low numbers for a despot dictator.

Going to be a few beatings being administered to those who stuffed the ballot boxes.