Being optimistic I think we need to finish 4th and hope Hawthorn finishes top, beat them in the qualifying final and earn our selves a home PF.
I like it.
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Being optimistic I think we need to finish 4th and hope Hawthorn finishes top, beat them in the qualifying final and earn our selves a home PF.
You only have to look at the ladder to realise that we are in big trouble.
The 3 immediately above us smashed us.
Our percentage is weak.
And we aren't even playing like a top 4 side.
The positives are;
We've got 8 weeks to start playing like a top 4 side.
Hawthorn and Sydney still have to play each other.
Port and Sydney still have to play each other.
We still have to play Freo.
We still have to play Hawthorn.
Hawthorn and Freo still have to play each other.
Port and Freo still have to play each other.
So if we can get it together, some doors can definitely open.
Hawks won't finish top.Finish 4th and play Hawthorn at the MCG first up, Sydney in a preliminary at the MCG and Fremantle at the MCG in the grand final.
Port Adelaide are the ones who will drop out of the top 4.
does this include a scenario where we win all remaining games? of all the scenarios this is the most likely.I have been giving the ladder predictor a bit of a spin. I have tried to be as realistic as possible. I have come to these conclusions.
- If we make the top 4 we will be travelling interstate.
- if we come 5th or 6th we will score one Vic final but will need to travel for either the Semi, Prelim or both.
- North Melbourne are a dark horse for making the top 4.
We will beat Hawthorn in the first final.Finish 4th and play Hawthorn at the MCG first up, Sydney in a preliminary at the MCG and Fremantle at the MCG in the grand final.
Port Adelaide are the ones who will drop out of the top 4.
Yep. They are going to struggle to make the top four with their draw.Hawks won't finish top.
We lost 2 of our last 4 games in 2009 yet won the flag.
About this stage of the year in 2011, we lost back to back games against the Bombers and Eagles. We then struggled against a lowly Brisbane side, outscored Richmond by a point in the 2nd half after leading by 10 goals at half time. We then struggled against 15th placed Adelaide and had a loss against the Swans at home. Fair to say that up until Round 24, it seemed we were limping into September, before we smashed the Pies by 96 points on the eve of the finals.
In 2012, Sydney lost 3 of their last 4 games (all against fellow top 8 sides in the Pies, Hawthorn and us - their only win in that time was against the 15th placed Bulldogs), yet found their form again in the finals.
In other words, in 3 of the last 5 years, the eventual premiers have had periods during the season where they haven't looked like world beaters, yet managed to get their act together come finals time. I can see us fine tuning things over the next three weeks against the Dogs, Dees and Giants, before we're hopefully hitting our straps when we play North, Freo, Carlton and Hawthorn over the period of a month. Win 3, or all 4 of those games, and we'll be a big show for a top 4 spot, and maybe even as high as top 2.
About this stage of the year in 2011, we lost back to back games against the Bombers and Eagles. We then struggled against a lowly Brisbane side, outscored Richmond by a point in the 2nd half after leading by 10 goals at half time. We then struggled against 15th placed Adelaide and had a loss against the Swans at home. Fair to say that up until Round 24, it seemed we were limping into September, before we smashed the Pies by 96 points on the eve of the finals
Bold statement, worth a sig imo.We will beat Hawthorn in the first final.
Curious memory at work there. Sandwiched in between the apparently horrible Richmond loss (we won by 62 points), and the win in Adelaide (never an easy place to go), we had 2 wins against Melbourne and Gold Coast - by a combined 336 points.
The Freo match at KP, Hawks game and Norf.What matches do you guys think we have the potential to lose? With your honest opinion? I know we have the potential to lose all of them, but does anyone think we can win all remaining matches?
That's true, but there was a distinct lack of fight from Melbourne that day (until the last 10 minutes when we were closing in on the record score), and everyone was smashing the Suns back then, and Gaz wasn't playing that day either. They were good wins, but the opposition wasn't much.
After 14 games in 2009 we were 13 wins-145%
After 14 games in 2010 we were 11 wins- 149.7%
After 14 games in 2011 we were 13 wins-139.8%
After 14 games in 2012 we were 9 wins- 112.9%
After 14 games in 2013 we were 12 wins- 128%
After 14 games in 2014 we are 10 wins- 106.8%
Different draws different everything but our season looks a lot closer to 2012 than 2009 or 2011.
What matches do you guys think we have the potential to lose? With your honest opinion? I know we have the potential to lose all of them, but does anyone think we can win all remaining matches?
One more win at least than 2012. Tick off 3 strong wins the next 3 weeks and they'll be even better placed.
no one has beaten the suns by that much in their history as we did back then and Melbourne werent a bottom of the ladder side and even if they were, the size of our win was a statement that we were the team to beat that year. Only truly great teams can win by that much against anyone.That's true, but there was a distinct lack of fight from Melbourne that day (until the last 10 minutes when we were closing in on the record score), and everyone was smashing the Suns back then, and Gaz wasn't playing that day either. They were good wins, but the opposition wasn't much.
really? i remember after the bulldogs and Carlton losses late in the season a number posters wrote us off on these boards. Particularly a couple whose usernames started with V.Winty, we were good enough / looked good enough for all of 2009
Really? Link?really? i remember after the bulldogs and Carlton losses late in the season a number posters wrote us off on these boards. Particularly a couple whose usernames started with V.
still a very big good call, they have quality players to come back and know how to win. I suspect they will finish top.Yep. They are going to struggle to make the top four with their draw.