Which side is closer to a premiership - Carlton or Essendon?

[Hippster]

Both were top 10 players last year, only a moron would be disappointed with that. The conversation isnt about who was better at 21, its whos better right now. Noone would disagree that Walsh was bet

 

[Hippster]

Re Blues.
We all know Walsh, Saad, Cripps, Cerra, Waitering, McKay are all top shelf.
We all know that they shouldn’t rely on guys like Plowman (leaks) Ed Curnow (disposals poor) JSOS (busts a gut but slow and limited) Pittonet (always been a battler)
But what we don’t know is what will become of these guys in 2022??
De Koning, McGovern, Carroll, Dow, Stocker, Kemp, Charlie Curnow

30

Charlie Curnow

Age

27

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.3

3star

K

9.7

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

5.3

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

10.8

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.4

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.8

4star

, Williams, Fisher, Young and Martin.
Could all be top grade, but who knows?
-

 

[Yoda_]

Role players, standards and coaching structures were worst in the league. All you have to look to for examples of this is our 'high profile recruits' we've brought in. Zac Williams, Adam Saad, Jack Martin, Mcgovern. They all came in on decent coin and regardless of if you rate them these days or not played practically every week under Teague. They played injured, overweight, and confused and have been rightly scrutinized in the media and on forums since. A year ago Zac Williams was a gun half back who a dozen clubs were chasing in free agency... Now hes a laughing stock amongst blues and oppo fans alike. Mcgovern was once a promising young forward and now is a laughing stock. Martin, a super talent whos now just an overpaid laughing stock... the list goes on.

In fact its a similar story for one of your very own guns. Jake Stringer. When you watched on in years past you could still see the utter brilliance that was the talent of Jake Stringer... but he was fat, lazy and inconsistent. This year to no surprise after getting in shape in the off season he came back and lit the comp alight. He had far less bad games and poor stretches, was able to stay on the park and was finally able to play the mid minutes he needed to shine. Everyone knew Jake Stringer was a gun but its very hard to have faith in someone whos history suggests they wont come back fit enough until they actually do it.

I watched a lot of the bombers this year and thought many of the players had career best years under Trucks high standards compared to Woosha. Blokes like Stewart and Laverde transformed into reliable KPD instead of flaky KPF. Stringer, Parish, Merrett, Redman, Hind, Snelling, Langford. All these blokes had really quality years but I see the next step of improvement coming from beneath as I'd say most of them played about as well as you could expect them to. The Cox Reid Perkins group will be what propels the bombers up the ladder if they come on like we expect. However, that will likely take a few years if we are going off draftees natural progression.

The difference imo with Carlton and Essendons lists are that almost all of Carltons quality senior core is currently in a similar basket to what Stringer was. Its only really Mckay Walsh and Weitering who you can see busting their guts to try to get the team over the line and then a few youngsters around the edges. Yes Essendon missed Sheil and Caldwell for a large chunk of the year and Hurley has been a great player who would have been handy (not sure how hed go in a return given his injuries and age but a champ regardless) but all of Mcgovern, Williams, Cripps, Docherty, Curnow, Martin, and Saad were well below their history suggests they can and should be playing. None of them are slowing down in old age yet, they just werent doing what they need to do to play at their best, just like Stringer was.

If you had a fully firing Cripps, Williams, Saad and Curnow alone to add to Walsh Mckay and Weitering then that team is almost tenfold better. These blokes are A graders and everyone knows they are whether you want to bag out the Blues or not. They just need to get their bodies and mindsets right and have a half competent coaching group to give them a structure that works defensively. All the pieces are there for the Blues to improve if these guys get back to their best and they dont need to wait 3-4 years for the youngsters to come through for that to happen as much. Whether we can contend for a flag is a whole other question as that will require some of youngsters coming on, but if that senior core was playing consistent footy I see us making finals comfortably with the list we have.


All that said... The Blues let me down every single year so I fully expect I'll be back to repost a similar spiel in 12 months time when the Carlton media team suck me in again.

Noted !

If Carlton is to take a significant jump, it sounds like you are expecting (hoping) a number of middle aged players make career jumps much like Essendon was luckily enough to have in 2021. With opportunity in some cases and a change of scenery in others (not even clubs but positional) we were rewarded with an out of the box restart in our push to number 17.


The inconsistencies from some on our list are to be expected, young players and ones with little exposure to AFL football comes with that challenge but they should iron themselves out with continuity.


The holes in our best 22 are there for all to see but not as profound as some want it to be. Our scoring woes are over stated (we were 4th in scores for) and whilst we have midfield issues, they're not as bad (we were 10th for clearances) as many want.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Noted !

If Carlton is to take a significant jump, it sounds like you are expecting (hoping) a number of middle aged players make career jumps much like Essendon was luckily enough to have in 2021. With opportunity in some cases and a change of scenery in others (not even clubs but positional) we were rewarded with an out of the box restart in our push to number 17.


The inconsistencies from some on our list are to be expected, young players and ones with little exposure to AFL football comes with that challenge but they should iron themselves out with continuity.


The holes in our best 22 are there for all to see but not as profound as some want it to be. Our scoring woes are over stated (we were 4th in scores for) and whilst we have midfield issues, they're not as bad (we were 10th for clearances) as many want.

Yes, hoping is the best word to describe it. I believe Carlton is far more up to chance until we see reason to believe otherwise. To me Essendon look very strong culturally and have a collective buy in which to me indicates their improvement is far more likely to be linear compared to Carlton who could fire or flounder with polarized results to be expected either way it flips

 

[Yoda_]

Yes, hoping is the best word to describe it. I believe Carlton is far more up to chance until we see reason to believe otherwise. To me Essendon look very strong culturally and have a collective buy in which to me indicates their improvement is far more likely to be linear compared to Carlton who could fire or flounder with polarized results to be expected either way it flips

The more I think about it, the more I would love to see Essendon (win obviously) in a final over Carlton in a prelim final at a stacked MCG in front of 90,000.

 

[dees arent rabble]

Who cares. Both irrelevant

 

[Dadda Dave]

Who cares. Both irrelevant

Go and have another billy or 2 mate .. you must care you're here lol..

 

[dees arent rabble]

Go and have another billy or 2 mate .. you must care you're here lol..

Premiership billy's are finest.
Cheers

 

[Dadda Dave]

Premiership billy's are finest.
Cheers

I suppose I would too after 60 years so fair enough.

 

[CharlieMortdecai]

I haven't read the whole thread so this has probably already been said, but it's a ridiculous question. Both teams are an immeasurable distance from a future premiership. I would probably put all these teams in the "unknown distance from a premiership" category:
Sydney
Essendon
Carlton
St Kilda
Hawthorn
Collingwood
Adelaide
West Coast
Fremantle
Gold Coast
Richmond
North Melbourne

You might debate whether Geelong and GWS should be included, perhaps you can make an argument that Richmond should not be.

But none of those teams to me seem to have a list that could meaningfully challenge for a flag. They could all turn over their lists completely in the next 10-15 years and have zero cups to show for it. Or everything might go right and they could get a flag in the next 5 years.

Obviously some teams are better than others right now. If the question is which team will finish higher on the ladder, or play in finals, or even make a preliminary final, you could probably give a meaningful answer. But a premiership? Too many ifs, buts and maybes.

 

[WilloTree]

we were 4th in scores for

Do you mean 'points for' or goals?

 

[Yoda_]

Do you mean 'points for' or goals?

AFL Ladder; points for

 

[HereComesJuddy]

I haven't read the whole thread so this has probably already been said, but it's a ridiculous question. Both teams are an immeasurable distance from a future premiership. I would probably put all these teams in the "unknown distance from a premiership" category:
Sydney
Essendon
Carlton
St Kilda
Hawthorn
Collingwood
Adelaide
West Coast
Fremantle
Gold Coast
Richmond
North Melbourne

You might debate whether Geelong and GWS should be included, perhaps you can make an argument that Richmond should not be.

But none of those teams to me seem to have a list that could meaningfully challenge for a flag. They could all turn over their lists completely in the next 10-15 years and have zero cups to show for it. Or everything might go right and they could get a flag in the next 5 years.

Obviously some teams are better than others right now. If the question is which team will finish higher on the ladder, or play in finals, or even make a preliminary final, you could probably give a meaningful answer. But a premiership? Too many ifs, buts and maybes.

And you thought Melbourne had a team that would win a premiership in 2021 when in 2019 they finished 17th. Or even in 2020 when they finished 9th.

Didn't think so. Good talk

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Who knows. Neither are going to walk up to a premiership based on talent. It's not like either have Petracca, Gawn or Oliver caliber players that could essentially bully a premiership. It'd have to be a game plan reliant more than talent. We have a year under Rutten so I'd back us to be slightly further ahead, but still lack the powerful small half forwards that are essential for that Richmond style.

 

[#gosaintas]

both miles away

 

[HereComesJuddy]

both miles away

Your club is in trouble then as you lost to both last year

 

[Foxman98]

And you thought Melbourne had a team that would win a premiership in 2021 when in 2019 they finished 17th. Or even in 2020 when they finished 9th.

Didn't think so. Good talk

You don't have the same level of B grade talent or quality youth coming like they had. You can keep getting defensive after another failed season but the reality is you have a poor list and little to be excited about for the next 5 years

 

[Arr0w]

You don't have the same level of B grade talent or quality youth coming like they had. You can keep getting defensive after another failed season but the reality is you have a poor list and little to be excited about for the next 5 years

I take it you held this view prior to last year. Could you provide evidence where you had Essendon rising from 13th to 8th

 

[Robertio]

You don't have the same level of B grade talent or quality youth coming like they had. You can keep getting defensive after another failed season but the reality is you have a poor list and little to be excited about for the next 5 years

I'll keep this little gem.

 

[Foxman98]

I take it you held this view prior to last year. Could you provide evidence where you had Essendon rising from 13th to 8th

Midfield depth

 

[Foxman98]

I'll keep this little gem.

I assume you've got a few from the last 8 years you're waiting for

 

[Robertio]

I assume you've got a few from the last 8 years you're waiting for

I'd have plenty coming my way mate, but giving us five years was very generous of you.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

You don't have the same level of B grade talent or quality youth coming like they had. You can keep getting defensive after another failed season but the reality is you have a poor list and little to be excited about for the next 5 years

Not getting defensive. Just know you have no clue

 

[faible]

You don't have the same level of B grade talent or quality youth coming like they had. You can keep getting defensive after another failed season but the reality is you have a poor list and little to be excited about for the next 5 years

B-grade talent is just C-grade and D-grade talent in a good system. If Voss brings a good system, there's no reason a lot of the players at Carlton can't fill a role the system that haven't previously looked fantastic.

A-graders will be A-graders anywhere, it's the rest of the team that looks good when the system is good.

It's not like guys like Castagna or Lambert would still look like great players in a shitty system, despite being triple Premiership players.

You'd expect most of the players taken inside the first 2 rounds of the draft to be B or C grade guys, the kind of region where you get your 100 gamers from. Motlop, Durdin, Caroll, Kemp, and Philp have all barely played yet were taken inside that range over the last 3 years. I'd expect at least some of them to be capable of being B-graders in a good system unless a clubs drafting and talent ID is appallingly bad (which it was in the 2014 draft under Shane Rogers who then got turfed out).

 

[HereComesJuddy]

B-grade talent is just C-grade and D-grade talent in a good system. If Voss brings a good system, there's no reason a lot of the players at Carlton can't fill a role the system that haven't previously looked fantastic.

A-graders will be A-graders anywhere, it's the rest of the team that looks good when the system is good.

It's not like guys like Castagna or Lambert would still look like great players in a shitty system, despite being triple Premiership players.

You'd expect most of the players taken inside the first 2 rounds of the draft to be B or C grade guys, the kind of region where you get your 100 gamers from. Motlop, Durdin, Caroll, Kemp, and Philp have all barely played yet were taken inside that range over the last 3 years. I'd expect at least some of them to be capable of being B-graders in a good system unless a clubs drafting and talent ID is appallingly bad (which it was in the 2014 draft under Shane Rogers who then got turfed out).

Really good understanding Owen. I couldn't be bothered going into depth but appreciated!